A 250-year periodicity in Southern Hemisphere westerly winds over the last 2600 years

Southern Hemisphere westerly airflow has a significant influence on the ocean–atmosphere system of the mid- to high latitudes with potentially global climate implications. Unfortunately, historic observations only extend back to the late 19th century, limiting our understanding of multi-decadal to centennial change. Here we present a highly resolved (30-year) record of past westerly wind strength from a Falkland Islands peat sequence spanning the last 2600 years. Situated within the core latitude of Southern Hemisphere westerly airflow (the so-called furious fifties), we identify highly variable changes in exotic pollen and charcoal derived from South America which can be used to inform on past westerly air strength. We find a period of high charcoal content between 2000 and 1000 cal. years BP, associated with increased burning in Patagonia, most probably as a result of higher temperatures and stronger westerly airflow. Spectral analysis of the charcoal record identifies a pervasive ca. 250-year periodicity that is coherent with radiocarbon production rates, suggesting that solar variability has a modulating influence on Southern Hemisphere westerly airflow. Our results have important implications for understanding global climate change through the late Holocene.

Modelling mortality: Are we heading in the right direction?

Predicting life expectancy has become of upmost importance in society. Pension providers, insurance companies, government bodies and individuals in the developed world have a vested interest in understanding how long people will live for. This desire to better understand life expectancy has resulted in an explosion of stochastic mortality models many of which identify linear trends in mortality rates by time. In making use of such models for forecasting purposes we rely on the assumption that the direction of the linear trend (determined from the data used for fitting purposes) will not change in the future, recent literature has started to question this assumption. In this paper we carry out a comprehensive investigation of these types of models using male and female data from 30 countries and using the theory of structural breaks to identify changes in the extracted trends by time. We find that structural breaks are present in a substantial number of cases, that they are more prevalent in male data than in female data, that the introduction of additional period factors into the model reduces their presence, and that allowing for changes in the trend improves the fit and forecast substantially.

‘Is there a right time for gender just peace? Feminist anti-war organising revisited’

This paper addresses the question of totalising gender power relations that have led to and shaped the wars of the 1990s in Yugoslavia and the emerging ethno-national states on the ‘periphery’ of Europe. I argue that the same type of gender power relations continue to dominate the region, notably Serbia, and to perpetuate gender inequalities and gender based violence in its many everyday and structural forms, causing profound levels of human insecurity. My analysis aims to set in motion a debate on how to tackle these continuing gender inequalities and GBV in post-war societies. In so doing, I propose a shift from focusing on the hierarchy of victimisation that has characterised much of the feminist analyses, activism and scholarly work in relation to these (and other) conflicts, to a relational understanding of the gendered processes of victimisation in war and peace, that is - of both women and men. Such an approach holds a potential to undermine the power systems that engender these varied types of victimisation by ultimately reshaping the notions of masculinity and femininity, which are central to the gender power systems that generate gender unjust peace.

Choosing the Right Promotional Tool in the Hotel Industry: The Case of the Chinese Consumer.

The rapid growth of the Chinese tourism has stimulated competition within tourism-related industries, such as the hospitality industry. The purpose of this study is to examine the Chinese consumer reaction to different promotional tools used by hotels in China and, thus, to provide a deeper understanding for marketers of how to use sales promotion effectively to generate appropriate consumer responses. An experimental survey was administered yielding a total sample of 319 Chinese customers, who were probed using different types of sales promotion tools. Data analysis indicates that bonus packs (e.g. a 3-night stay at a hotel for the price of 2) induced the highest consumer perceived value, brand switching, and purchase acceleration intention, whereas price discounts resulted in the highest intention to spend more. Although this study has its limitations given its reliance on a convenience sample, it offers insightful practical implications for hotel business owners in Asia regarding targeting the right customers with the right promotional tools, where it is proposed that bonus packs successfully attract new Chinese customers and price discounts support in generating more sales.

An exploration of pre-attentive visual discrimination using event-related potentials

The Mismatch Negativity (MMN) has been characterised as a ‘pre-attentive’ component of an Event-Related Potential (ERP) that is related to discriminatory processes. Although well established in the auditory domain, characteristics of the MMN are less well characterised in the visual domain. The five main studies presented in this thesis examine visual cortical processing using event-related potentials. Novel methodologies have been used to elicit visual detection and discrimination components in the absence of a behavioural task. Developing paradigms in which a behavioural task is not required may have important clinical applications for populations, such as young children, who cannot comply with the demands of an active task. The ‘pre-attentive’ nature of visual MMN has been investigated by modulating attention. Generators and hemispheric lateralisation of visual MMN have been investigated by using pertinent clinical groups. A three stimulus visual oddball paradigm was used to explore the elicitation of visual discrimination components to a change in the orientation of stimuli in the absence of a behavioural task. Monochrome stimuli based on pacman figures were employed that differed from each other only in terms of the orientation of their elements. One such stimulus formed an illusory figure in order to capture the participant’s attention, either in place of, or alongside, a behavioural task. The elicitation of a P3a to the illusory figure but not to the standard or deviant stimuli provided evidence that the illusory figure captured attention. A visual MMN response was recorded in a paradigm with no task demands. When a behavioural task was incorporated into the paradigm, a P3b component was elicited consistent with the allocation of attentional resources to the task. However, visual discrimination components were attenuated revealing that the illusory figure was unable to command all attentional resources from the standard deviant transition. The results are the first to suggest that the visual MMN is modulated by attention. Using the same three stimulus oddball paradigm, generators of visual MMN were investigated by recording potentials directly from the cortex of an adolescent undergoing pre-surgical evaluation for resection of a right anterior parietal lesion. To date no other study has explicitly recorded activity related to the visual MMN intracranially using an oddball paradigm in the absence of a behavioural task. Results indicated that visual N1 and visual MMN could be temporally and spatially separated, with visual MMN being recorded more anteriorly than N1. The characteristic abnormality in retinal projections in albinism afforded the opportunity to investigate each hemisphere in relative isolation and was used, for the first time, as a model to investigate lateralisation of visual MMN and illusory contour processing. Using the three stimulus oddball paradigm, no visual MMN was elicited in this group, and so no conclusions regarding the lateralisation of visual MMN could be made. Results suggested that both hemispheres were equally capable of processing an illusory figure. As a method of presenting visual test stimuli without conscious perception, a continuous visual stream paradigm was developed that used a briefly presented checkerboard stimulus combined with masking for exploring stimulus detection below and above subjective levels of perception. A correlate of very early cortical processing at a latency of 60-80 ms (CI) was elicited whether stimuli were reported as seen or unseen. Differences in visual processing were only evident at a latency of 90 ms (CII) implying that this component may represent a correlate of visual consciousness/awareness. Finally, an oddball sequence was introduced into the visual stream masking paradigm to investigate whether visual MMN responses could be recorded without conscious perception. The stimuli comprised of black and white checkerboard elements differing only in terms of their orientation to form an x or a +. Visual MMN was not recorded when participants were unable to report seeing the stimulus. Results therefore suggest that behavioural identification of the stimuli was required for the elicitation of visual MMN and that visual MMN may require some attentional resources. On the basis of these studies it is concluded that visual MMN is not entirely independent of attention. Further, the combination of clinical and non-clinical investigations provides a unique opportunity to study the characterisation and localisation of putative mechanisms related to conscious and non-conscious visual processing.

On the 'inherent' character of the right of states to self-defence

While there is no lack of studies on the use of armed force by states in self-defence, its qualification as an ‘inherent right’ in article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations has received little scholarly attention and has been too quickly dismissed as having no significance. The present article fills this gap in the literature. Its purpose is not to discuss the limits to which article 51 or customary international law submit the exercise of the right of self-defence by states, but to examine what its 'inherent’ character means and what legal consequences it entails. The article advances two main arguments. The first is that self-defence is a corollary of statehood as presently understood because it is essential to preserving its constitutive elements. The second argument is that the exercise of the right of self-defence must be distinguished from the right itself: it is only the former that may be delegated to other states or submitted to limitations under customary international law and treaty law. The right of self-defence, however, cannot be alienated and it takes precedence over other international obligations, although not over those specifically intended to limit the conduct of states in armed conflict or over non-derogable human rights provisions.

Argonauta Video Database: General simulated scenes. Scene 1 (Right camera)

General simulated scenes These scenes followed a pre-defined script (see the Thesis for details), with common movements corresponding to general experiments. People go to or stand still in front of "J9", and/or go to the side of Argonauta reactor and come back again. The first type of movement is common during Irradiation experiments, where a material sample is put within the "J9" channel; and also during neutrongraphy or gammagraphy experiments, where a sample is placed in front of "J9". Here, the detailed movements of putting samples on these places were not reproduced in details, but only the whole bodies' movements were simulated (as crouching or being still in front of "J9"). The second type of movement may occur when operators go to the side of Argonauta to verify some operational condition. - Scene 1 (Obs.: Scene 1 of the "General simulated scenes" class): Comprises one of the scenes with two persons. Both of them use clothes of light colors. Both persons remain still in front of "J9"; one goes to the computer and then come back, and both go out. Video file labels: "20140326145315_IPCAM": recorded by the right camera,

Argonauta Video Database: Spectrography experiment. Scene 1 (Right câmera)

Scenes for Spectrography experiment Scenes were recorded following the tasks involved in spectrography experiments, which are carried out in front of "J9" output radiadion channel, the latter in open condition. These tasks may be executed by one or two persons. One person can do the tasks, but requiring him to crouch in front of "J9" to adjust the angular position the experimental appartus (a crystal to bend the neutron radiation to the spectograph), and then to get up to verify data in a computer aside; these movements are repeated until achieving the right operational conditions. Two people may aid one another in such a way one remais crouched while the other remains still in front of the computer. They may also interchange tasks so as to divide received doses. Up to now, there are available two scenes with one person and one scene with two persons. These scenes are described in the sequel: - Scene 1: Comprises one of the scenes with one person performing spectography experiment. Video file labels: "20140327181335_IPCAM": recorded by the right camera

Argonauta Video Database: General simulated. Scene 2 (Right camera)

General simulated scenes These scenes followed a pre-defined script (see the Thesis for details), with common movements corresponding to general experiments. People go to or stand still in front of "J9", and/or go to the side of Argonauta reactor and come back again. The first type of movement is common during Irradiation experiments, where a material sample is put within the "J9" channel; and also during neutrongraphy or gammagraphy experiments, where a sample is placed in front of "J9". Here, the detailed movements of putting samples on these places were not reproduced in details, but only the whole bodies' movements were simulated (as crouching or being still in front of "J9"). The second type of movement may occur when operators go to the side of Argonauta to verify some operational condition. - Scene 2: Comprises one of the scenes with two persons. Both of them use clothes of dark colors. Both persons go to the side of Argonauta reactor and then come back and go out. Video file labels: "20140326154754_IPCAM": recorded by the right camera.

Argonauta Video Database: Spectography experiment. Scene 2 (Right camera)

Scenes for Spectrography experiment Scenes were recorded following the tasks involved in spectrography experiments, which are carried out in front of "J9" output radiadion channel, the latter in open condition. These tasks may be executed by one or two persons. One person can do the tasks, but requiring him to crouch in front of "J9" to adjust the angular position the experimental appartus (a crystal to bend the neutron radiation to the spectograph), and then to get up to verify data in a computer aside; these movements are repeated until achieving the right operational conditions. Two people may aid one another in such a way one remais crouched while the other remains still in front of the computer. They may also interchange tasks so as to divide received doses. Up to now, there are available two scenes with one person and one scene with two persons. These scenes are described in the sequel: - Scene 2: Another take similat to Scene 1. Video file labels: "20140327180749_IPCAM": recorded by the right camera.

Argonauta Video Database: Spectography experiment. Scene 3 (Right camera)

Scenes for Spectrography experiment Scenes were recorded following the tasks involved in spectrography experiments, which are carried out in front of "J9" output radiadion channel, the latter in open condition. These tasks may be executed by one or two persons. One person can do the tasks, but requiring him to crouch in front of "J9" to adjust the angular position the experimental appartus (a crystal to bend the neutron radiation to the spectograph), and then to get up to verify data in a computer aside; these movements are repeated until achieving the right operational conditions. Two people may aid one another in such a way one remais crouched while the other remains still in front of the computer. They may also interchange tasks so as to divide received doses. Up to now, there are available two scenes with one person and one scene with two persons. These scenes are described in the sequel: - Scene 3: Comprises the scene with two persons performing spectography experiment. Video file labels: "20140327182905_IPCAM": recorded by the right camera.