L'exploitation des peintures en spray en criminalistique: mise en place d'une procédure de gestion et de comparaison des spectres infrarouges à l'aide des statistiques multivariées

La spectroscopie infrarouge (FTIR) est une technique de choix dans l'analyse des peintures en spray (traces ou bonbonnes de référence), grâce à son fort pouvoir discriminant, sa sensibilité, et ses nombreuses possibilités d'échantillonnage. La comparaison des spectres obtenus est aujourd'hui principalement faite visuellement, mais cette procédure présente des limitations telles que la subjectivité de la prise de décision car celle-ci dépend de l'expérience et de la formation suivie par l'expert. De ce fait, de faibles différences d'intensités relatives entre deux pics peuvent être perçues différemment par des experts, même au sein d'un même laboratoire. Lorsqu'il s'agit de justifier ces différences, certains les expliqueront par la méthode analytique utilisée, alors que d'autres estimeront plutôt qu'il s'agit d'une variabilité intrinsèque à la peinture et/ou à son vécu (par exemple homogénéité, sprayage, ou dégradation). Ce travail propose d'étudier statistiquement les différentes sources de variabilité observables dans les spectres infrarouges, de les identifier, de les comprendre et tenter de les minimiser. Le deuxième objectif principal est de proposer une procédure de comparaison des spectres qui soit davantage transparente et permette d'obtenir des réponses reproductibles indépendamment des experts interrogés. La première partie du travail traite de l'optimisation de la mesure infrarouge et des principaux paramètres analytiques. Les conditions nécessaires afin d'obtenir des spectres reproductibles et minimisant la variation au sein d'un même échantillon (intra-variabilité) sont présentées. Par la suite une procédure de correction des spectres est proposée au moyen de prétraitements et de sélections de variables, afin de minimiser les erreurs systématiques et aléatoires restantes, et de maximiser l'information chimique pertinente. La seconde partie présente une étude de marché effectuée sur 74 bonbonnes de peintures en spray représentatives du marché suisse. Les capacités de discrimination de la méthode FTIR au niveau de la marque et du modèle sont évaluées au moyen d'une procédure visuelle, et comparées à diverses procédures statistiques. Les limites inférieures de discrimination sont testées sur des peintures de marques et modèles identiques mais provenant de différents lots de production. Les résultats ont montré que la composition en pigments était particulièrement discriminante, à cause des étapes de corrections et d'ajustement de la couleur subies lors de la production. Les particularités associées aux peintures en spray présentes sous forme de traces (graffitis, gouttelettes) ont également été testées. Trois éléments sont mis en évidence et leur influence sur le spectre infrarouge résultant testée : 1) le temps minimum de secouage nécessaire afin d'obtenir une homogénéité suffisante de la peinture et, en conséquence, de la surface peinte, 2) la dégradation initiée par le rayonnement ultra- violet en extérieur, et 3) la contamination provenant du support lors du prélèvement. Finalement une étude de population a été réalisée sur 35 graffitis de la région lausannoise et les résultats comparés à l'étude de marché des bonbonnes en spray. La dernière partie de ce travail s'est concentrée sur l'étape de prise de décision lors de la comparaison de spectres deux-à-deux, en essayant premièrement de comprendre la pratique actuelle au sein des laboratoires au moyen d'un questionnaire, puis de proposer une méthode statistique de comparaison permettant d'améliorer l'objectivité et la transparence lors de la prise de décision. Une méthode de comparaison basée sur la corrélation entre les spectres est proposée, et ensuite combinée à une évaluation Bayesienne de l'élément de preuve au niveau de la source et au niveau de l'activité. Finalement des exemples pratiques sont présentés et la méthodologie est discutée afin de définir le rôle précis de l'expert et des statistiques dans la procédure globale d'analyse des peintures. -- Infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) is a technique of choice for analyzing spray paint speciments (i.e. traces) and reference samples (i.e. cans seized from suspects) due to its high discriminating power, sensitivity and sampling possibilities. The comparison of the spectra is currently carried out visually, but this procedure has limitations such as the subjectivity in the decision due to its dependency on the experience and training of the expert. This implies that small differences in the relative intensity of two peaks can be perceived differently by experts, even between analysts working in the same laboratory. When it comes to justifying these differences, some will explain them by the analytical technique, while others will estimate that the observed differences are mostly due to an intrinsic variability from the paint sample and/or its acquired characteristics (for example homogeneity, spraying, or degradation). This work proposes to statistically study the different sources of variability observed in infrared spectra, to identify them, understand them and try to minimize them. The second goal is to propose a procedure for spectra comparison that is more transparent, and allows obtaining reproducible answers being independent from the expert. The first part of the manuscript focuses on the optimization of infrared measurement and on the main analytical parameters. The necessary conditions to obtain reproducible spectra with a minimized variation within a sample (intra-variability) are presented. Following that a procedure of spectral correction is then proposed using pretreatments and variable selection methods, in order to minimize systematic and random errors, and increase simultaneously relevant chemical information. The second part presents a market study of 74 spray paints representative of the Swiss market. The discrimination capabilities of FTIR at the brand and model level are evaluated by means of visual and statistical procedures. The inferior limits of discrimination are tested on paints coming from the same brand and model, but from different production batches. The results showed that the pigment composition was particularly discriminatory, because of the corrections and adjustments made to the paint color during its manufacturing process. The features associated with spray paint traces (graffitis, droplets) were also tested. Three elements were identified and their influence on the resulting infrared spectra were tested: 1) the minimum shaking time necessary to obtain a sufficient homogeneity of the paint and subsequently of the painted surface, 2) the degradation initiated by ultraviolet radiation in an exterior environment, and 3) the contamination from the support when paint is recovered. Finally a population study was performed on 35 graffitis coming from the city of Lausanne and surroundings areas, and the results were compared to the previous market study of spray cans. The last part concentrated on the decision process during the pairwise comparison of spectra. First, an understanding of the actual practice among laboratories was initiated by submitting a questionnaire. Then, a proposition for a statistical method of comparison was advanced to improve the objectivity and transparency during the decision process. A method of comparison based on the correlation between spectra is proposed, followed by the integration into a Bayesian framework at both source and activity levels. Finally, some case examples are presented and the recommended methodology is discussed in order to define the role of the expert as well as the contribution of the tested statistical approach within a global analytical sequence for paint examinations.

Heavier smoking may lead to a relative increase in waist circumference: evidence for a causal relationship from a Mendelian randomisation meta-analysis. The CARTA consortium.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate, using a Mendelian randomisation approach, whether heavier smoking is associated with a range of regional adiposity phenotypes, in particular those related to abdominal adiposity. DESIGN: Mendelian randomisation meta-analyses using a genetic variant (rs16969968/rs1051730 in the CHRNA5-CHRNA3-CHRNB4 gene region) as a proxy for smoking heaviness, of the associations of smoking heaviness with a range of adiposity phenotypes. PARTICIPANTS: 148 731 current, former and never-smokers of European ancestry aged ≥16 years from 29 studies in the consortium for Causal Analysis Research in Tobacco and Alcohol (CARTA). PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Waist and hip circumferences, and waist-hip ratio. RESULTS: The data included up to 66 809 never-smokers, 43 009 former smokers and 38 913 current daily cigarette smokers. Among current smokers, for each extra minor allele, the geometric mean was lower for waist circumference by -0.40% (95% CI -0.57% to -0.22%), with effects on hip circumference, waist-hip ratio and body mass index (BMI) being -0.31% (95% CI -0.42% to -0.19), -0.08% (-0.19% to 0.03%) and -0.74% (-0.96% to -0.51%), respectively. In contrast, among never-smokers, these effects were higher by 0.23% (0.09% to 0.36%), 0.17% (0.08% to 0.26%), 0.07% (-0.01% to 0.15%) and 0.35% (0.18% to 0.52%), respectively. When adjusting the three central adiposity measures for BMI, the effects among current smokers changed direction and were higher by 0.14% (0.05% to 0.22%) for waist circumference, 0.02% (-0.05% to 0.08%) for hip circumference and 0.10% (0.02% to 0.19%) for waist-hip ratio, for each extra minor allele. CONCLUSIONS: For a given BMI, a gene variant associated with increased cigarette consumption was associated with increased waist circumference. Smoking in an effort to control weight may lead to accumulation of central adiposity.

Evaluating the impact of filming on the number of errors committed by nursing students to determine the efficacy of simulated clinical situations

Clinic simulation as a training and knowledge method allows people experiment a real event representation with the aim of acquiring knowledge, abilities and aptitudes. The filming of the staging represents a useful tool to review the decisions taken and the actions they did, with the purpose to highlight the strengths, weaknesses and the areas for improvement. The article describes a study carried out by a group of students in second course of nursing, and it tries to evaluate if there is any influence if somebody is filming you during the clinic simulation, does it make you do more errors or not?

Chronological order of appearance of extraintestinal manifestations relative to the time of IBD diagnosis in the Swiss Inflammatory Bowel Disease Cohort

BACKGROUND: Data evaluating the chronological order of appearance of extraintestinal manifestations (EIMs) relative to the time of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) diagnosis is currently lacking. We aimed to assess the type, frequency, and chronological order of appearance of EIMs in patients with IBD. METHODS: Data from the Swiss Inflammatory Bowel Disease Cohort Study were analyzed. RESULTS: The data on 1249 patients were analyzed (49.8% female, median age: 40 [interquartile range, 30-51 yr], 735 [58.8%] with Crohn's disease, 483 [38.7%] with ulcerative colitis, and 31 [2.5%] with indeterminate colitis). A total of 366 patients presented with EIMs (29.3%). Of those, 63.4% presented with 1, 26.5% with 2, 4.9% with 3, 2.5% with 4, and 2.7% with 5 EIMs during their lifetime. Patients presented with the following diseases as first EIMs: peripheral arthritis 70.0%, aphthous stomatitis 21.6%, axial arthropathy/ankylosing spondylitis 16.4%, uveitis 13.7%, erythema nodosum 12.6%, primary sclerosing cholangitis 6.6%, pyoderma gangrenosum 4.9%, and psoriasis 2.7%. In 25.8% of cases, patients presented with their first EIM before IBD was diagnosed (median time 5 mo before IBD diagnosis: range, 0-25 mo), and in 74.2% of cases, the first EIM manifested itself after IBD diagnosis (median: 92 mo; range, 29-183 mo). CONCLUSIONS: In one quarter of patients with IBD, EIMs appeared before the time of IBD diagnosis. Occurrence of EIMs should prompt physicians to look for potential underlying IBD.

Life-time growth patterns of pumpkinseed Lepomis gibbosus introduced to Europe, relative to North American populations

The pumpkinseed Lepomis gibbosus, an omnivorous, nest guarding North American sunfish, was introduced into European waters about 100 years ago. To assess growth performance following introduction, we reviewed the available data for North American and European populations of pumpkinseed and compared the back-calculated age-specific growth for juveniles (standard length, SL, at age two) and adults (age two to five increment) as well as adult body size (SL at age five), von Bertalanffy growth model parameters and the index of growth (in length) performance (φ′). For continental comparisons of growth trajectory, mean growth curves for North American and Europe were calculated with the von Bertalanffy model using pooled data sets for each continent. Juvenile growth rate did not differ between European and North American pumpkinseed, but mean adult body size and adult growth rate were both significantly greater in North American than European populations. Adult body size decreased with increasing latitude (ANOVA) in North American populations, but this was not observed with adult growth rate. In contrast, adult body size tended to increase with latitude in European populations. Adult body size correlated significantly with φ′. The von Bertalanffy model described the overall growth patterns of North American and European populations reasonably well, but on the individual population level, length asymptotes were unrealistic (estimates that were > 20 % of the mean back-calculated size for the oldest age class) for a third of European populations and 80% of the North American populations. In contrast to North American pumpkinseed populations, somatic growth in European populations appears to be compromised by limited, but adequate, food resources, probably due to strong intraspecific interactions. This appears to be especially acute in adults, having potential ramifications for life span and reproductive allocation

Exploring the relative DNA contribution of first and second object's users on mock touch DNA mixtures

Contact stains recovered at break-in crime scenes are frequently characterized by mixtures of DNA from several persons. Broad knowledge on the relative contribution of DNA left behind by different users overtime is of paramount importance. Such information might help crime investigators to robustly evaluate the possibility of detecting a specific (or known) individual's DNA profile based on the type and history of an object. To address this issue, a contact stain simulation-based protocol was designed. Fourteen volunteers either acting as first or second object's users were recruited. The first user was required to regularly handle/wear 9 different items during an 8-10-day period, whilst the second user for 5, 30 and 120 min, in three independent simulation sessions producing a total of 231 stains. Subsequently, the relative DNA profile contribution of each individual pair was investigated. Preliminary results showed a progressive increase of the percentage contribution of the second user compared to the first. Interestingly, the second user generally became the major DNA contributor when most objects were handled/worn for 120 min, Furthermore, the observation of unexpected additional alleles will then prompt the investigation of indirect DNA transfer events.

Nitric oxide and ethylnitrosourea: relative mutagenicity in the p53 tumor suppressor and hypoxanthine-phosphoribosyltransferase genes.

Nitric oxide (NO) is a cellular messenger which is mutagenic in bacteria and human TK6 cells and induces deamination of 5-methylcytosine (5meC) residues in vitro. The aims of this study were: (i) to investigate whether NO induces 5meC deamination in codon 248 of the p53 gene in cultured human bronchial epithelial cells (BEAS-2B); and (ii) to compare NO mutagenicity to that of ethylnitrosourea (ENU), a strong mutagen. Two approaches were used: (i) a novel genotypic assay, using RFLP/PCR technology on purified exon VII sequence of the p53 gene; and (ii) a phenotypic (HPRT) mutation assay using 6-thioguanine selection. BEAS-2B cells were either exposed to 4 mM DEA/NO (Et2N[N2O2]Na, an agent that spontaneously releases NO into the medium) or transfected with the inducible nitric oxide synthase (iNOS) gene. The genotypic mutation assay, which has a sensitivity of 1 x 10(-6), showed that 4 mM ENU induces detectable numbers of G --> A transitions in codon 248 of p53 while 5-methylcytosine deamination was not detected in either iNOS-transfected cells or cells exposed to 4 mM DEA/NO. Moreover, ENU was dose-responsively mutagenic in the phenotypic HPRT assay, reaching mutation frequencies of 24 and 96 times that of untreated control cells at ENU concentrations of 4 and 8 mM respectively; by contrast, 4 mM DEA/NO induced no detectable mutations in this assay, nor were any observed in cells transfected with murine iNOS. We conclude that if NO is at all promutagenic in these cells, it is significantly less so than the ethylating mutagen, ENU.

Erreurs innées du métabolisme: transition enfant-adulte [Inborn errors of metabolism: transition from childhood to adulthood].

Les erreurs innées du métabolisme (EIM) sont dues à des mutations de gènes codant pour des enzymes du métabolisme et sont classées selon trois grands groupes de maladies: 1) intoxications; 2) déficit énergétique et 3) déficit de synthèse ou catabolisme des maladies complexes. Le progrès thérapeutique des vingt dernières années a permis d'améliorer le pronostic des enfants atteints d'EIM. Ces enfants grandissent et doivent être pris en charge à l'adolescence et à l'âge adulte par des équipes spécialisées. Cette médecine métabolique pour adultes est une discipline relativement nouvelle avec une information limitée chez l'adulte. Les recommandations pédiatriques sont extrapolées à la prise en charge des adultes tout en intégrant les différentes étapes de vie (indépendance sociale, grossesse, vieillissement et éventuelles complications tardives). Inborn errors of metabolism (IEM) are due to mutations of genes coding for enzymes of intermediary metabolism and are classified into 3 broad categories: 1) intoxication, 2) energy defect and 3) cellular organelles synthesis or catabolism defect. Improvements of therapy over these last 20 years has improved prognosis of children with IEM. These children grow up and should have their transition to specialized adult care. Adult patients with IEM are a relatively new phenomenon with currently only limited knowledge. Extrapolated pediatric guidelines are applied to the adult population taking into account adult life stages (social independence, pregnancy, aging process and potential long-term complications).

Measurement of the relative rate of prompt χ c0, χ c1 and χ c2 production at TeV

Prompt production of charmonium χ c0, χ c1 and χ c2 mesons is studied using proton-proton collisions at the LHC at a centre-of-mass energy of TeX TeV. The χ c mesons are identified through their decay to J/ψγ, with J/ψ → μ + μ − using photons that converted in the detector. A data sample, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 1.0 fb−1 collected by the LHCb detector, is used to measure the relative prompt production rate of χ c1 and χ c2 in the rapidity range 2.0 < y < 4.5 as a function of the J/ψ transverse momentum from 3 to 20 GeV/c. First evidence for χ c0 meson production at a high-energy hadron collider is also presented.

Neural synchrony indexes impaired motor slowing after errors and novelty following white matter damage.

In humans, action errors and perceptual novelty elicit activity in a shared frontostriatal brain network, allowing them to adapt their ongoing behavior to such unexpected action outcomes. Healthy and pathologic aging reduces the integrity of white matter pathways that connect individual hubs of such networks and can impair the associated cognitive functions. Here, we investigated whether structural disconnection within this network because of small-vessel disease impairs the neural processes that subserve motor slowing after errors and novelty (post-error slowing, PES; post-novel slowing, PNS). Participants with intact frontostriatal circuitry showed increased right-lateralized beta-band (12-24 Hz) synchrony between frontocentral and frontolateral electrode sites in the electroencephalogram after errors and novelty, indexing increased neural communication. Importantly, this synchrony correlated with PES and PNS across participants. Furthermore, such synchrony was reduced in participants with frontostriatal white matter damage, in line with reduced PES and PNS. The results demonstrate that behavioral change after errors and novelty result from coordinated neural activity across a frontostriatal brain network and that such cognitive control is impaired by reduced white matter integrity.

Analysis of translational errors in frame-based and frameless cranial radiosurgery using an anthropomorphic phantom

Abstract Objective: To evaluate three-dimensional translational setup errors and residual errors in image-guided radiosurgery, comparing frameless and frame-based techniques, using an anthropomorphic phantom. Materials and Methods: We initially used specific phantoms for the calibration and quality control of the image-guided system. For the hidden target test, we used an Alderson Radiation Therapy (ART)-210 anthropomorphic head phantom, into which we inserted four 5mm metal balls to simulate target treatment volumes. Computed tomography images were the taken with the head phantom properly positioned for frameless and frame-based radiosurgery. Results: For the frameless technique, the mean error magnitude was 0.22 ± 0.04 mm for setup errors and 0.14 ± 0.02 mm for residual errors, the combined uncertainty being 0.28 mm and 0.16 mm, respectively. For the frame-based technique, the mean error magnitude was 0.73 ± 0.14 mm for setup errors and 0.31 ± 0.04 mm for residual errors, the combined uncertainty being 1.15 mm and 0.63 mm, respectively. Conclusion: The mean values, standard deviations, and combined uncertainties showed no evidence of a significant differences between the two techniques when the head phantom ART-210 was used.

On the relative abundance of autopolyploids and allopolyploids.

The prevalence of autopolyploids in angiosperms has long been a subject of debate. Meurountzing (1936) and Darlington (1937) conclude d that autopolyploids were common and important evolutionary entities. However, Clausen et al. (1945) and Stebbins (1947) subsequently considered them rare, in part because the criteria upon which interpretations of autopolyploidy were rendered were not rigorous. This position was reiterated by Grant (1981) decades later, although evidence was mounting that autopolyploid taxa might be important in natural populations (Lewis, 1980). As cytological and genetic data have accumulated, it has become increasingly apparent that the latter view is likely to be correct (Soltis et al., 2004b, 2007, 2010). However, it still appears that the majority of polyploids are allopolyploids (Parisod et al., 2010; Soltis et al., 2010), even though Ramsey & Schemske (1998, p. 467) conclude that 'the rate of autopolyploid formation may often be higher than the rate of allopol yploid formation.' In this letter we survey the literature to assess whether allopolyploids are indeed the prevailing cytotype in nature. Using our new estimates for the incidence of autopolyploidy and allopolyploidy, we discuss some of the evolutionary dynamics that may be driving their frequencies in nature. Finally, we suggest avenues for future research on polyploidy that build on our results and other recent progress in the field.

Quantitative market and sales forecast accuracy analysis

The main objective of this master’s thesis was to quantitatively study the reliability of market and sales forecasts of a certain company by measuring bias, precision and accuracy of these forecasts by comparing forecasts against actual values. Secondly, the differences of bias, precision and accuracy between markets were explained by various macroeconomic variables and market characteristics. Accuracy and precision of the forecasts seems to vary significantly depending on the market that is being forecasted, the variable that is being forecasted, the estimation period, the length of the estimated period, the forecast horizon and the granularity of the data. High inflation, low income level and high year-on-year market volatility seems to be related with higher annual market forecast uncertainty and high year-on-year sales volatility with higher sales forecast uncertainty. When quarterly market size is forecasted, correlation between macroeconomic variables and forecast errors reduces. Uncertainty of the sales forecasts cannot be explained with macroeconomic variables. Longer forecasts are more uncertain, shorter estimated period leads to higher uncertainty, and usually more recent market forecasts are less uncertain. Sales forecasts seem to be more uncertain than market forecasts, because they incorporate both market size and market share risks. When lead time is more than one year, forecast risk seems to grow as a function of root forecast horizon. When lead time is less than year, sequential error terms are typically correlated, and therefore forecast errors are trending or mean-reverting. The bias of forecasts seems to change in cycles, and therefore the future forecasts cannot be systematically adjusted with it. The MASE cannot be used to measure whether the forecast can anticipate year-on-year volatility. Instead, we constructed a new relative accuracy measure to cope with this particular situation.

Searching for consensus in ahp-group decision making. A bayesian perspective

This paper sets out to identify the initial positions of the different decisionmakers who intervene in a group decision making process with a reducednumber of actors, and to establish possible consensus paths between theseactors. As a methodological support, it employs one of the most widely-knownmulticriteria decision techniques, namely, the Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP). Assuming that the judgements elicited by the decision makers follow theso-called multiplicative model (Crawford and Williams, 1985; Altuzarra et al.,1997; Laininen and Hämäläinen, 2003) with log-normal errors and unknownvariance, a Bayesian approach is used in the estimation of the relative prioritiesof the alternatives being compared. These priorities, estimated by way of themedian of the posterior distribution and normalised in a distributive manner(priorities add up to one), are a clear example of compositional data that will beused in the search for consensus between the actors involved in the resolution ofthe problem through the use of Multidimensional Scaling tools