FLOOD RISK ASSESSMENT UNDER HISTORICAL AND PREDICTED LAND USE CHANGE USING CONTINUOUS HYDROLOGIC MODELING

Current procedures for flood risk estimation assume flood distributions are stationary over time, meaning annual maximum flood (AMF) series are not affected by climatic variation, land use/land cover (LULC) change, or management practices. Thus, changes in LULC and climate are generally not accounted for in policy and design related to flood risk/control, and historical flood events are deemed representative of future flood risk. These assumptions need to be re-evaluated, however, as climate change and anthropogenic activities have been observed to have large impacts on flood risk in many areas. In particular, understanding the effects of LULC change is essential to the study and understanding of global environmental change and the consequent hydrologic responses. The research presented herein provides possible causation for observed nonstationarity in AMF series with respect to changes in LULC, as well as a means to assess the degree to which future LULC change will impact flood risk. Four watersheds in the Midwest, Northeastern, and Central United States were studied to determine flood risk associated with historical and future projected LULC change. Historical single framed aerial images dating back to the mid-1950s were used along with Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and remote sensing models (SPRING and ERDAS) to create historical land use maps. The Forecasting Scenarios of Future Land Use Change (FORE-SCE) model was applied to generate future LULC maps annually from 2006 to 2100 for the conterminous U.S. based on the four IPCC-SRES future emission scenario conditions. These land use maps were input into previously calibrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) models for two case study watersheds. In order to isolate effects of LULC change, the only variable parameter was the Runoff Curve Number associated with the land use layer. All simulations were run with daily climate data from 1978-1999, consistent with the 'base' model which employed the 1992 NLCD to represent 'current' conditions. Output daily maximum flows were converted to instantaneous AMF series and were subsequently modeled using a Log-Pearson Type 3 (LP3) distribution to evaluate flood risk. Analysis of the progression of LULC change over the historic period and associated SWAT outputs revealed that AMF magnitudes tend to increase over time in response to increasing degrees of urbanization. This is consistent with positive trends in the AMF series identified in previous studies, although there are difficulties identifying correlations between LULC change and identified change points due to large time gaps in the generated historical LULC maps, mainly caused by unavailability of sufficient quality historic aerial imagery. Similarly, increases in the mean and median AMF magnitude were observed in response to future LULC change projections, with the tails of the distributions remaining reasonably constant. FORE-SCE scenario A2 was found to have the most dramatic impact on AMF series, consistent with more extreme projections of population growth, demands for growing energy sources, agricultural land, and urban expansion, while AMF outputs based on scenario B2 showed little changes for the future as the focus is on environmental conservation and regional solutions to environmental issues.

Development of a lab-on-a-chip device for rapid nanotoxicity assessment in vitro

Increasing useof nanomaterials in consumer products and biomedical applications creates the possibilities of intentional/unintentional exposure to humans and the environment. Beyond the physiological limit, the nanomaterialexposure to humans can induce toxicity. It is difficult to define toxicity of nanoparticles on humans as it varies by nanomaterialcomposition, size, surface properties and the target organ/cell line. Traditional tests for nanomaterialtoxicity assessment are mostly based on bulk-colorimetric assays. In many studies, nanomaterials have found to interfere with assay-dye to produce false results and usually require several hours or days to collect results. Therefore, there is a clear need for alternative tools that can provide accurate, rapid, and sensitive measure of initial nanomaterialscreening. Recent advancement in single cell studies has suggested discovering cell properties not found earlier in traditional bulk assays. A complex phenomenon, like nanotoxicity, may become clearer when studied at the single cell level, including with small colonies of cells. Advances in lab-on-a-chip techniques have played a significant role in drug discoveries and biosensor applications, however, rarely explored for nanomaterialtoxicity assessment. We presented such cell-integrated chip-based approach that provided quantitative and rapid response of cellhealth, through electrochemical measurements. Moreover, the novel design of the device presented in this study was capable of capturing and analyzing the cells at a single cell and small cell-population level. We examined the change in exocytosis (i.e. neurotransmitterrelease) properties of a single PC12 cell, when exposed to CuOand TiO2 nanoparticles. We found both nanomaterials to interfere with the cell exocytosis function. We also studied the whole-cell response of a single-cell and a small cell-population simultaneously in real-time for the first time. The presented study can be a reference to the future research in the direction of nanotoxicity assessment to develop miniature, simple, and cost-effective tool for fast, quantitative measurements at high throughput level. The designed lab-on-a-chip device and measurement techniques utilized in the present work can be applied for the assessment of othernanoparticles' toxicity, as well.^

Structured professional judgement approach to risk assessment: generalisability across patient groups for the prediction of adverse outcomes in secure mental health care

This is a redacted version of the the final thesis. Copyright material has been removed to comply with UK Copyright Law.

Combining clinical judgement and formalised risk assessment techniques in anaesthesiology : lessons from bushfire emergency management

The underlying thinking in bushfire management has much to offer anaesthetists. Although it is imperative to develop improved methods of predicting the risk of perioperative patient morbidity and mortality, we must avoid them being used in a way that can undermine both individual clinical judgment on a case-by-case basis and the effectivenessof the methods themselves. This requires all concerned to be aware of the reliability and validity of the algorithms used to provide such predictions as well as the quality of the data upon which they are based. Like fire behaviour analysts, anaesthetists should still be free to trust their knowledge, expertise and experience. When experienced fire fighters sense a conflict between what the evidence on the ground is telling them and what a predictive fire map is saying, they use their understanding of limitations of the fire analysts’ predictions to inform their own professional judgment.

Asset identification in information security risk assessment: A business practice approach

Organizations apply information security risk assessment (ISRA) methodologies to systematically and comprehensively identify information assets and related security risks. We review the ISRA literature and identify three key deficiencies in current methodologies that stem from their traditional accountancy-based perspective and a limited view of organizational "assets". In response, we propose a novel rich description method (RDM) that adopts a less formal and more holistic view of information and knowledge assets that exist in modern work environments. We report on an in-depth case study to explore the potential for improved asset identification enabled by the RDM compared to traditional ISRAs. The comparison shows how the RDM addresses the three key deficiencies of current ISRAs by providing: 1) a finer level of granularity for identifying assets, 2) a broader coverage of assets that reflects the informal aspects of business practices, and 3) the identification of critical knowledge assets.

EPA Radon Risk Assessment Table for Smokers and Non-Smokers

This chart gives the long term effects of radon on smokers and non-smokers.

An Integrated Soft Computing Approach to Hughes Syndrome Risk Assessment

The AntiPhospholipid Syndrome (APS) is an acquired autoimmune disorder induced by high levels of antiphospholipid antibodies that cause arterial and veins thrombosis, as well as pregnancy-related complications and morbidity, as clinical manifestations. This autoimmune hypercoagulable state, usually known as Hughes syndrome, has severe consequences for the patients, being one of the main causes of thrombotic disorders and death. Therefore, it is required to be preventive; being aware of how probable is to have that kind of syndrome. Despite the updated of antiphospholipid syndrome classification, the diagnosis remains difficult to establish. Additional research on clinically relevant antibodies and standardization of their quantification are required in order to improve the antiphospholipid syndrome risk assessment. Thus, this work will focus on the development of a diagnosis decision support system in terms of a formal agenda built on a Logic Programming approach to knowledge representation and reasoning, complemented with a computational framework based on Artificial Neural Networks. The proposed model allows for improving the diagnosis, classifying properly the patients that really presented this pathology (sensitivity higher than 85%), as well as classifying the absence of APS (specificity close to 95%).

Methodology for climate risk assessment of maize intercropped with Brachiaria in the Cerrado of Brazil.

2015

Risk assessment of the herbicide clomazone in the aquatic life.

Clomazone (2-(2-chlorophenyl)methyl-4.4-dimethyl-3-isoxazolidinone) is a post emergence herbicide widely used in rice fields in Rio Grande do Sul (Brazil) with high activity against Gramineae at the recommended application rate(AR).of 700g/ha. The herbicide input into the aquatic ecosystem may occur by aerial application or water drainage. The presence of this chemical in the water may affect non-target organisms leading to impairments in the aquatic food chain. Studies were conducted in this work to evaluate the risk of Clomazone using the estimated mean affective concentration (EC50) for the microalgae Selenastrum capricornutum(96h), the duckweed Lemna valdiviana(96h) and the crustacean Daphnia similis(48h). The EC50 values were 11.2; 31.7 and 13.8 mg/l, respectively. According to the obtained data, and considering a direct input of the herbicide in a 10cm column water, the estimated maximum application rate that doesn't cause acute effects is 5.3 AR for S. capricornutum, 6.5 AR for D. similis and 15.0 AR for L. valdiviana. The estimated maximum application rate that doesn't cause chronic effects is 2.0 AR for D. similis, 1.6 AR for S. capricornutum and 4.5 AR for L. valviana.

Research, development, and innovations in health risk assessment for brazilian agriculture.

Agriculture and livestock are key sectors of the Brazilian economy, which are essential for the country?s economic growth and for the equality between the domestic currency?s supply and demand. Agribusiness answered for about 23% of the gross domestic product (GDP) in 2015, according to Confederação Nacional da Agricultura (CNA), and reached 50.3% of total exports in February 2016, according to Secretaria de Relações Internacionais do Agronegócio (SRI) of Ministério da Agricultura, Pecuária e Abastecimento (Mapa) (Brasil, 2016). Currently, this sector is recognized as the most competitive and efficient in Brazil, considering the global scenario.

New methodologies for risk assessment of GMOs: an experiment of public consultation in Brazil.

2008

Consideration of problem formulation and option assessment (PFOA) for environmental risk assessment: Bt cotton in Vietnam.

2008

Horizon scanning for invasive alien species with the potential to threaten biodiversity in Great Britain

Invasive alien species (IAS) are considered one of the greatest threats to biodiversity, particularly through their interactions with other drivers of change. Horizon scanning, the systematic examination of future potential threats and opportunities, leading to prioritization of IAS threats is seen as an essential component of IAS management. Our aim was to consider IAS that were likely to impact on native biodiversity but were not yet established in the wild in Great Britain. To achieve this, we developed an approach which coupled consensus methods (which have previously been used for collaboratively identifying priorities in other contexts) with rapid risk assessment. The process involved two distinct phases: 1. Preliminary consultation with experts within five groups (plants, terrestrial invertebrates, freshwater invertebrates, vertebrates and marine species) to derive ranked lists of potential IAS. 2. Consensus-building across expert groups to compile and rank the entire list of potential IAS. Five hundred and ninety-one species not native to Great Britain were considered. Ninety-three of these species were agreed to constitute at least a medium risk (based on score and consensus) with respect to them arriving, establishing and posing a threat to native biodiversity. The quagga mussel, Dreissena rostriformis bugensis, received maximum scores for risk of arrival, establishment and impact; following discussions the unanimous consensus was to rank it in the top position. A further 29 species were considered to constitute a high risk and were grouped according to their ranked risk. The remaining 63 species were considered as medium risk, and included in an unranked long list. The information collated through this novel extension of the consensus method for horizon scanning provides evidence for underpinning and prioritizing management both for the species and, perhaps more importantly, their pathways of arrival. Although our study focused on Great Britain, we suggest that the methods adopted are applicable globally.

Risk of sexual recidivism as a function of age and actuarial risk

The study of risk for sexual recidivism has undergone substantial development in recent years. The foundation for advances in this area has been the use of actuarial measures to identify subgroups of offenders with different observed rates of sexual re-offending over time. An unresolved issue within this research area has been the moderating function of age in the assessment of risk. The current study examined sexual re-offending as a function of age and actuarial risk in a large sample of sexual offenders released from prison between 1990 and 2004. There was an overall decrease in the rate of sexual re-offending over the age of 50. However, a small group of offenders from the higher actuarial risk categories of the older age groups continued to re-offend at higher rates than their lower-risk peers.