Governmental Measures to Enhance the Finnish Innovation System to Respond to the Challenge of Mitigating Climate Change

Climate innovations, that cover both technological applications and process and service innovations, play a key role in climate change mitigation. The purpose of this study was to examine how the Finnish innovation system could be enhanced with governmental measures so that the diffusion of climate innovations could be speeded up. During the study, it became evident that the governmental measures need to support the whole innovation chain, which comprises of research, development, demonstration and deployment. Only this can lead to the successful birth and diffusion of low carbon innovations. The study found that the strengths of the Finnish innovation system are research and development, and the current national innovation policies strongly support these activities. However, these have been emphasised at the expense of the demonstration and deployment. Consequently, the biggest bottlenecks in the Finnish innovation landscape are the lack of pilot and demonstration projects and slow commercialisation, thus the high price of the innovation. To meet with the challenge, the government should firstly promote strict greenhouse gas emission reduction targets. This would boost up the innovation activities, which would also lower the prices of the innovations. To speed up the commercialisation process, measures that stimulate the domestic market, such as feed-in-tariffs and public procurements, are needed. Special attention should also be paid to the measures that could shift the traditional closed innovation chain towards open innovation. This means that the product development should involve experts from several fields such as the user and marketing experts to speed up the commercialisation. In addition, efficient innovation co-operation between both private and public sector is essential. Finally, as the domestic resources are not adequate for producing all the innovations needed, the domestic innovation activities should be focused on a few sectors, and at the same time promote efficient import policies.

Regime Switching Models for Electricity Time Series that Capture Fat Tailed Distributions

In the power market, electricity prices play an important role at the economic level. The behavior of a price trend usually known as a structural break may change over time in terms of its mean value, its volatility, or it may change for a period of time before reverting back to its original behavior or switching to another style of behavior, and the latter is typically termed a regime shift or regime switch. Our task in this thesis is to develop an electricity price time series model that captures fat tailed distributions which can explain this behavior and analyze it for better understanding. For NordPool data used, the obtained Markov Regime-Switching model operates on two regimes: regular and non-regular. Three criteria have been considered price difference criterion, capacity/flow difference criterion and spikes in Finland criterion. The suitability of GARCH modeling to simulate multi-regime modeling is also studied.

Utilization of a Time Domain Simulator in the Technical and Economic Analysis of a Wind Turbine Electric Drive Train

The amount of installed wind power has been growing exponentially during the past ten years. As wind turbines have become a significant source of electrical energy, the interactions between the turbines and the electric power network need to be studied more thoroughly than before. Especially, the behavior of the turbines in fault situations is of prime importance; simply disconnecting all wind turbines from the network during a voltage drop is no longer acceptable, since this would contribute to a total network collapse. These requirements have been a contributor to the increased role of simulations in the study and design of the electric drive train of a wind turbine. When planning a wind power investment, the selection of the site and the turbine are crucial for the economic feasibility of the installation. Economic feasibility, on the other hand, is the factor that determines whether or not investment in wind power will continue, contributing to green electricity production and reduction of emissions. In the selection of the installation site and the turbine (siting and site matching), the properties of the electric drive train of the planned turbine have so far been generally not been taken into account. Additionally, although the loss minimization of some of the individual components of the drive train has been studied, the drive train as a whole has received less attention. Furthermore, as a wind turbine will typically operate at a power level lower than the nominal most of the time, efficiency analysis in the nominal operating point is not sufficient. This doctoral dissertation attempts to combine the two aforementioned areas of interest by studying the applicability of time domain simulations in the analysis of the economicfeasibility of a wind turbine. The utilization of a general-purpose time domain simulator, otherwise applied to the study of network interactions and control systems, in the economic analysis of the wind energy conversion system is studied. The main benefits of the simulation-based method over traditional methods based on analytic calculation of losses include the ability to reuse and recombine existing models, the ability to analyze interactions between the components and subsystems in the electric drive train (something which is impossible when considering different subsystems as independent blocks, as is commonly done in theanalytical calculation of efficiencies), the ability to analyze in a rather straightforward manner the effect of selections other than physical components, for example control algorithms, and the ability to verify assumptions of the effects of a particular design change on the efficiency of the whole system. Based on the work, it can be concluded that differences between two configurations can be seen in the economic performance with only minor modifications to the simulation models used in the network interaction and control method study. This eliminates the need ofdeveloping analytic expressions for losses and enables the study of the system as a whole instead of modeling it as series connection of independent blocks with no lossinterdependencies. Three example cases (site matching, component selection, control principle selection) are provided to illustrate the usage of the approach and analyze its performance.

Understanding change processes in business networks : a study of convergence in Finnish telecommunications 1985-2005

Aktörer inom telekommunikationsbranschen i Finland har genomgått en intensiv förändring under de senaste 25 åren, från 1980-talets självständiga företag till företag beroende av varandra, och även av aktörer inom närliggande branscher. I dag skapas telekommunikationsmarknaden inte endast av operatörerna, utan också av mediebolag (t.ex. MTV Media) och IT-företag (t.ex. TietoEnator). Gränserna mellan olika industrier håller därmed på att suddas ut - ett fenomen som allmänt benämns som teknologisk konvergens. Konvergens innebär att någonting integreras; det kan handla om t.ex. teknologier (telefoni och Internet), företag (AOL och Time Warner), industrier (telekom, media och IT-branscherna), tjänster (mobilt TV), produkter (PDA) osv. Detta innebär att ytterst få telekomaktörer ensamma kan vidareutveckla marknaden och tekniska lösningar. Samarbete mellan aktörer krävs; mobiltelefontillverkare, innehållsproducenter, operatörer osv. bör intesifiera sitt samarbete för att kunna erbjuda attraktiva tjänster och produkter till kunder och slutanvändare. Avhandlingen fokuserar speciellt på affärsnätverk och samarbetsmönster mellan nätverksaktörer som medel för att få tillgång till resurser som krävs i en konvergenskarakteriserad affärsomgivning. Avhandlingen lyfter fram vad den teknologiska konvergensen har inneburit för telekomaktörer, dvs. att företag tvingats förändra sina strategier och verksamhetsmodeller. För många företag i branschen har anpassningen till konvergenstänkande varit utmanande, och i vissa fall kan man till och med tala om att företagen upplevt en identitetskris. Den utförda forskningen visar att konvergens uppfattas på marknaden som en pågående förändringsprocess, där varje telekomaktör är tvungen att utvärdera sin roll och position i relation till andra aktörer inom branschen. Konvergensprocesser forsätter i framtiden med ökad intensitet. Aktörerna skapar medvetet sin omgivning genom att agera i olika roller, som kan sträcka sig över industrigränser. Avhandlingen påvisar även att externa händelser och industrikontexten påverkar dynamiken i ett affärsnätverk.

Innovations of ageing and societal transition : Dynamics of change of the socio-technical regime of ageing

The purpose of this dissertation is to examine the dynamics of the socio-technical system in the field of ageing. The study stems from the notion that the ageing of the population as a powerful megatrend has wide societal effects, and is not just a matter for the social and health sector. The central topic in the study is change: not only the age structures and structures of society are changing, but also at the same time there is constant development, for instance, in technologies, infrastructures and cultural perceptions. The changing concept of innovation has widened the understanding of innovations related to ageing from medical and assistive technological innovations to service and social innovations, as well as systemic innovations at different levels, which means the intertwined and co-evolutionary change in technologies, structures, services and thinking models. By the same token, the perceptions of older people and old age are becoming more multi-faceted: old age is no longer equated to illnesses and decline, but visions of active ageing and a third age have emerged, which are framed by choices, opportunities, resources and consumption in later life. The research task in this study is to open up the processes and mechanisms of change in the field of ageing, which are studied as a complex, multi-level and interrelated socio-technical system. The question is about co-effective elements consisting of macro-level landscape changes, the existing socio-technical regime (the rule system, practices and structures) and bottom-up niche-innovations. Societal transitions do not account for the things inside the regime alone, or for the long-term changes in the landscape, nor for the radical innovations, but for the interplay between all these levels. The research problem is studied through five research articles, which offer micro-level case studies to macro-level phenomenon. Each of the articles focus on different aspects related to ageing and change, and utilise various datasets. The framework of this study leans on the studies of socio-technical systems and multi-level perspective on transitions mainly developed by Frank Geels. Essential factors in transition from one socio-technological regime to another are the co-evolutionary processes between landscape changes, regime level and experimental niches. Landscape level changes, like the ageing of the population, destabilise the regime in the forms of coming pressures. This destabilization offers windows for opportunity to niche-innovations outside or at fringe of the regime, which, through their breakthrough, accelerate the transition process. However, the change is not easy because of various kinds of lock-ins and inertia, which tend to maintain the stability of the regime. In this dissertation, a constructionist approach of society is applied leaning mainly to the ideas of Anthony Giddens’ theory of structuration, with the dual nature of structures. The change is taking place in the interplay between actors and structures: structures shape people’s practices, but at the same time these practices constitute and reproduce social systems. Technology and other material aspects, as part of socio-technical systems, and the use of them, also take part in the structuration process. The findings of the study point out that co-evolutionary and co-effective relationships between economic, cultural, technological and institutional fields, as well as relationships between landscape changes, changes in the local and regime-level practices and rule systems, are a very complex and multi-level dynamic socio-technical phenomenon. At the landscape level of ageing, which creates the pressures and triggers to the regime change, there are three remarkable megatrends: demographic change, changes in the global economy and the development of technologies. These exert pressures to the socio-technical regime, which as a rule system is experiencing changes in the form of new markets and consumer habits, new ways of perceiving ageing, new models of organising the health care and other services and as new ways of considering innovation and innovativeness. There are also inner dynamics in the relationships between these aspects within the regime. These are interrelated and coconstructed: the prevailing perceptions of ageing and innovation, for instance, reflect the ageing policies, innovation policies, societal structures, organising models, technology and scientific discussion, and vice versa. Technology is part of the inner dynamics of the sociotechnological regime. Physical properties of the artefacts set limitations and opportunities with regard to their functions and uses. The use of and discussion about technology, contributes producing and reproducing the perceptions of old age. For societal transition, micro-level changes are also needed, in form of niche-innovations, for instance new services, organisational models or new technologies, Regimes, as stabilitystriven systems, tend to generate incremental innovations, but radically new innovations are generated in experimental niches protected from ‘normal’ market selection. The windows of opportunity for radical novelties may be opened if the circumstances are favourable for instance by tensions in the socio-technical regime affected by landscape level changes. This dissertation indicates that a change is taking place, firstly, in the dynamic interactionbetween levels, as a result of purposive action and governance to some extent. Breaking the inertia and using the window of opportunity for change and innovation offered by dynamics between levels, presupposes the actors’ special capabilities and actions such as dynamic capabilities and distance management. Secondly, the change is taking place the socio-technological negotiations inside the regime: interaction between technological and social, which is embodied in the use of technology. The use of technology includes small-level contextual scripts that also participate in forming broader societal scripts (for instance defining old age at the society level), which in their turn affect the formation of policies for innovation and ageing. Thirdly, the change is taking place by the means of active formation of the multi-actor innovation networks, where the role of distance management is crucial to facilitate the communication between actors coming from different backgrounds as well as to help the niches born outside the regime to utilise the window of opportunity offered by regime destabilisation. This dissertation has both theoretical and practical contributions. This study participates in the discussion of action-oriented view on transition by opening up of the socio-technological, coevolutionary processes of the multi-faceted phenomenon of ageing, which has lacked systematic analyses. The focus of this study, however, is not on the large-scale coordination and governance, but rather on opening up the incremental elements and structuration processes, which contribute to the transition little by little, and which can be affected to. This increases the practical importance of this dissertation, by highlighting the importance of very tiny, everyday elements in the change processes in the long run.

An analysis of the risk of cocoa moniliasis occurrence in Brazil as the result of climate change

The aim of this study was to evaluate the potential risk of moniliasis occurrence and the impacts of climate change on this disease in the coming decades, should this pathogen be introduced in Brazil. To this end, climate favorability maps were devised for the occurrence of moniliasis, both for the present and future time. The future scenarios (A2 and B2) focused on the decades of 2020, 2050 and 2080. These scenarios were obtained from six global climate models (GCMs) made available by the third assessment report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Currently, there are large areas with favorable climate conditions for moniliasis in Brazil, especially in regions at high risk of introduction of that pathogen. Considering the global warming scenarios provided by the IPCC, the potential risk of moniliasis occurrence in Brazil will be reduced. This decrease is predicted for both future scenarios, but will occur more sharply in scenario A2. However, there will still be areas with favorable climate conditions for the development of the disease, particularly in Brazil's main producing regions. Moreover, pathogen and host alike may undergo alterations due to climate change, which will affect the extent of their impacts on this pathosystem.

Climate risk in maize crop in the northeastern of Brazil based on climate change scenarios

This study evaluates the impacts of climate change on the agricultural zoning of climatic risk in maize crop cultivated in the Northeastern of Brazil, based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports. The water balance model, combined with geospatial technologies, was used to identify areas of the study region where the crops could suffer yield restrictions due to climate change. The data used in the study were the time series of rainfall with at least 30 years of daily data, crop coefficients, potential evapotranspiration and duration of the crop cycle. The scenarios of the increasing of air temperature used in the simulations were of 1.5ºC, 3ºC and 5ºC. The sowing date of maize crop from January to March appears to be less affected by warming scenarios than the sowing in November and December or April and May.

Winning time in land warfare : a reading of the classical strategists prior to the age of mechanization

We live in an age where rationalization and demands of efficiency taint every aspect of our lives both as individuals and as a society. Even warfare cannot escape the increased speed of human interaction. Time is a resource to be managed. It has to be optimized, saved and won in military affairs as well. The purpose of this research paper is to analyze the dogmatic texts of military thought to search for answers what the classics of strategy saw in the interrelations of temporality and warfare and if their thoughts remain meaningful in the contemporary conjunction. Since the way a society functions is reflected in the way it conducts its wars, there naturally are differences between an agrarian, industrial and information society. Theorists of different eras emphasize things specific to their times, but warfare, like any human interaction, is always bounded by temporality. Not only is the pace of warfare dependent on the progress of the society, but time permeates warfare in all its aspects. This research paper focuses on two specific topics that arose from the texts themselves; how should time be managed and manipulated in warfare and how to economize and “win” it from the enemy. A method where lengthy quotations are used to illustrate the main point of the strategists has been chosen for this research paper. While Clausewitz is the most prominent source of quotations, thoughts from ancient India and China are represented as well to prove that the combination of right force in the right place at the right time is still the way of the victorious. Tactics change in the course of time but the principles of strategy remain unaltered and are only adapted to suit new situations. While ancient and pre-modern societies had their focus on finding auspicious moments for battle in the flow of kronos-time based on divinities, portents and auguries, we can trace elements of manipulation of time in warfare from the earliest surviving texts. While time as a fourth dimension of the battlespace emerged only in the modern era, all through the history of military thought it has had a profound meaning. In the past time could be squandered, today it always has to be won. This paper asks the question “why”.

A Soft Contact Collision Method For Real-Time Simulation of Triangularized Geometries in Multibody Dynamics

When modeling machines in their natural working environment collisions become a very important feature in terms of simulation accuracy. By expanding the simulation to include the operation environment, the need for a general collision model that is able to handle a wide variety of cases has become central in the development of simulation environments. With the addition of the operating environment the challenges for the collision modeling method also change. More simultaneous contacts with more objects occur in more complicated situations. This means that the real-time requirement becomes more difficult to meet. Common problems in current collision modeling methods include for example dependency on the geometry shape or mesh density, calculation need increasing exponentially in respect to the number of contacts, the lack of a proper friction model and failures due to certain configurations like closed kinematic loops. All these problems mean that the current modeling methods will fail in certain situations. A method that would not fail in any situation is not very realistic but improvements can be made over the current methods.

Estimating Attractor Dimension on the Nonlinear Pendulum Time Series

Chaotic dynamical systems exhibit trajectories in their phase space that converges to a strange attractor. The strangeness of the chaotic attractor is associated with its dimension in which instance it is described by a noninteger dimension. This contribution presents an overview of the main definitions of dimension discussing their evaluation from time series employing the correlation and the generalized dimension. The investigation is applied to the nonlinear pendulum where signals are generated by numerical integration of the mathematical model, selecting a single variable of the system as a time series. In order to simulate experimental data sets, a random noise is introduced in the time series. State space reconstruction and the determination of attractor dimensions are carried out regarding periodic and chaotic signals. Results obtained from time series analyses are compared with a reference value obtained from the analysis of mathematical model, estimating noise sensitivity. This procedure allows one to identify the best techniques to be applied in the analysis of experimental data.

GIS assessing traditional and modern agricultural land use/land cover change. A case study 1959-2005: Rekijoki, Somero, SW-Finland

Finland’s rural landscape has gone through remarkable changes from the 1950’s, due to agricultural developments. Changed farming practices have influenced especially traditional landscape management, and modifications in the arable land structure and grasslands transitions are notable. The review of the previous studies reveal the importance of the rural landscape composition and structure to species and landscape diversity, whereas including the relevance in presence of the open ditches, size of the field and meadow patches, topology of the natural and agricultural landscape. This land-change study includes applying remote sensed data from two time series and empirical geospatial analysis in Geographic Information Systems (GIS). The aims of this retrospective research is to detect agricultural landscape use and land cover change (LULCC) dynamics and discuss the consequences of agricultural intensification to landscape structure covering from the aspects of landscape ecology. Measurements of LULC are derived directly from pre-processed aerial images by a variety of analytical procedures, including statistical methods and image interpretation. The methodological challenges are confronted in the process of landscape classification and combining change detection approaches with landscape indices. Particular importance is paid on detecting agricultural landscape features at a small scale, demanding comprehensive understanding of such agroecosystems. Topological properties of the classified arable land and valley are determined in order to provide insight and emphasize the aspect the field edges in the agricultural landscape as important habitat. Change detection dynamics are presented with change matrix and additional calculations of gain, loss, swap, net change, change rate and tendencies are made. Transition’s possibility is computed following Markov’s probability model and presented with matrix, as well. Thesis’s spatial aspect is revealed with illustrative maps providing knowledge of location of the classified landscape categories and location of the dynamics of the changes occurred. It was assured that in Rekijoki valley’s landscape, remarkable changes in landscape has occurred. Landscape diversity has been strongly influenced by modern agricultural landscape change, as NP of open ditches has decreased and the MPS of the arable plot has decreased. Overall change in the diversity of the landscape is determined with the decrease of SHDI. Valley landscape considered as traditional land use area has experienced major transitional changes, as meadows class has lost almost one third of the area due to afforestation. Also, remarkable transitions have occurred from forest to meadow and arable land to built area. Boundaries measurement between modern and traditional landscape has indicated noticeable proportional increase in arable land-forest edge type and decrease in arable land-meadow edge type. Probability calculations predict higher future changes for traditional landscape, but also for arable land turning into built area.

Managing Change: An Organizational Outline for Reimagining the Digital Repository Infrastructure at The Ohio State University Libraries

Poster at Open Repositories 2014, Helsinki, Finland, June 9-13, 2014

Time course of changes in heart rate and blood pressure variability in streptozotocin-induced diabetic rats treated with insulin

Autonomic neuropathy is a frequent complication of diabetes associated with higher morbidity and mortality in symptomatic patients, possibly because it affects autonomic regulation of the sinus node, reducing heart rate (HR) variability which predisposes to fatal arrhythmias. We evaluated the time course of arterial pressure and HR and indirectly of autonomic function (by evaluation of mean arterial pressure (MAP) variability) in rats (164.5 ± 1.7 g) 7, 14, 30 and 120 days after streptozotocin (STZ) injection, treated with insulin, using measurements of arterial pressure, HR and MAP variability. HR variability was evaluated by the standard deviation of RR intervals (SDNN) and root mean square of successive difference of RR intervals (RMSSD). MAP variability was evaluated by the standard deviation of the mean of MAP and by 4 indices (P1, P2, P3 and MN) derived from the three-dimensional return map constructed by plotting MAPn x [(MAPn+1) - (MAPn)] x density. The indices represent the maximum concentration of points (P1), the longitudinal axis (P2), and the transversal axis (P3) and MN represents P1 x P2 x P3 x 10-3. STZ induced increased urinary glucose in diabetic (D) rats compared to controls (C). Seven days after STZ, diabetes reduced resting HR from 380.6 ± 12.9 to 319.2 ± 19.8 bpm, increased HR variability, as demonstrated by increased SDNN, from 11.77 ± 1.67 to 19.87 ± 2.60 ms, did not change MAP, and reduced P1 from 61.0 ± 5.3 to 51.5 ± 1.8 arbitrary units (AU), P2 from 41.3 ± 0.3 to 29.0 ± 1.8 AU, and MN from 171.1 ± 30.2 to 77.2 ± 9.6 AU of MAP. These indices, as well as HR and MAP, were similar for D and C animals 14, 30 and 120 days after STZ. Seven-day rats showed a negative correlation of urinary glucose with resting HR (r = -0.76, P = 0.03) as well as with the MN index (r = -0.83, P = 0.01). We conclude that rats with short-term diabetes mellitus induced by STZ presented modified autonomic control of HR and MAP which was reversible. The metabolic control may influence these results, suggesting that insulin treatment and a better metabolic control in this model may modify arterial pressure, HR and MAP variability

Changes in clinical and laboratory findings at the time of diagnosis of primary hyperparathyroidism in a University Hospital in São Paulo from 1985 to 2002

In contrast to most developed countries, most patients with primary hyperparathyroidism in Brazil are still symptomatic at diagnosis. However, we have been observing a change in this pattern, especially in the last few years. We evaluated 104 patients, 77 females and 27 males aged 11-79 years (mean: 54.4 years), diagnosed between 1985 and 2002 at a University Hospital. Diagnosis was made on the basis of clinical findings and of high total and/or ionized calcium levels, high or inappropriate levels of intact parathyroid hormone and of surgical findings in 80 patients. Patients were divided into three groups, i.e., patients diagnosed from 1985 to 1989, patients diagnosed from 1990 to 1994, and patients diagnosed from 1995 to 2002. The number of new cases diagnosed/year increased from 1.8/year in the first group to 6.0/year in the second group and 8.1/year in the third group. The first group comprised 9 patients (mean serum calcium ± SD, 13.6 ± 1.6 mg/dl), 8 of them (88.8%) defined as symptomatic. The second group comprised 30 patients (mean calcium ± SD, 12.2 ± 1.63 mg/dl), 22 of them defined as symptomatic (73.3%). The third group contained 65 patients (mean calcium 11.7 ± 1.1 mg/dl), 34 of them symptomatic (52.3%). Patients from the first group tended to be younger (mean ± SD, 43.0 ± 15 vs 55.1 ± 14.4 and 55.7 ± 17.3 years, respectively) and their mean serum calcium was significantly higher (P < 0.05). All of symptomatic patients independent of group had higher serum calcium levels (12.4 ± 1.53 mg/dl, N = 64) than asymptomatic patients (11.4 ± 1.0 mg/dl, N = 40). Our data showed an increase in the percentage of asymptomatic patients over the years in the number of primary hyperparathyroidism cases diagnosed. This finding may be due to an increased availability of diagnostic methods and/or to an increased awareness about the disease.

Parameter identification in time series models

Time series analysis can be categorized into three different approaches: classical, Box-Jenkins, and State space. Classical approach makes a basement for the analysis and Box-Jenkins approach is an improvement of the classical approach and deals with stationary time series. State space approach allows time variant factors and covers up a broader area of time series analysis. This thesis focuses on parameter identifiablity of different parameter estimation methods such as LSQ, Yule-Walker, MLE which are used in the above time series analysis approaches. Also the Kalman filter method and smoothing techniques are integrated with the state space approach and MLE method to estimate parameters allowing them to change over time. Parameter estimation is carried out by repeating estimation and integrating with MCMC and inspect how well different estimation methods can identify the optimal model parameters. Identification is performed in probabilistic and general senses and compare the results in order to study and represent identifiability more informative way.