Slow recoveries: A structural interpretation

An analysis of the performance of GDP, employment and otherlabor market variables following the troughs in postwar U.S. businesscycles points to much slower recoveries in the three most recentepisodes, but does not reveal any significant change over time in therelation between GDP and employment. This leads us to characterizethe last three episodes as slow recoveries, as opposed to jobless recoveries.We use the estimated New Keynesian model in Galí-Smets-Wouters (2011) to provide a structural interpretation for the slowerrecoveries since the early nineties.

Fuzzy coding in constrained ordinations

Canonical correspondence analysis and redundancy analysis are two methods of constrained ordination regularly used in the analysis of ecological data when several response variables (for example, species abundances) are related linearly to several explanatory variables (for example, environmental variables, spatial positions of samples). In this report I demonstrate the advantages of the fuzzy coding of explanatory variables: first, nonlinear relationships can be diagnosed; second, more variance in the responses can be explained; and third, in the presence of categorical explanatory variables (for example, years, regions) the interpretation of the resulting triplot ordination is unified because all explanatory variables are measured at a categorical level.

Nucleation and growth of metamorphic minerals in contact aureoles

THESIS ABSTRACT Nucleation and growth of metamorphic minerals are the consequence of changing P-T-X-conditions. The thesis presented here focuses on processes governing nucleation and growth of minerals in contact metamorphic environments using a combination of geochemical analytics (chemical-, isotope-, and trace element composition), statistical treatments of spatial data, and numerical models. It is shown, that a combination of textural modeling and stable isotope analysis allows a distinction between several possible reaction paths for olivine growth in a siliceous dolomite contact aureole. It is suggested that olivine forms directly from dolomite and quartz. The formation of olivine from this metastable reaction implies metamorphic crystallization far from equilibrium. As a major consequence, the spatial distribution of metamorphic mineral assemblages in a contact aureole cannot be interpreted as a proxy for the temporal evolution of a single rock specimen, because each rock undergoes a different reaction path, depending on temperature, heating rate, and fluid-infiltration rate. A detailed calcite-dolomite thermometry study was initiated on multiple scales ranging from aureole scale to the size of individual crystals. Quantitative forward models were developed to evaluate the effect of growth zoning, volume diffusion and the formation of submicroscopic exsolution lamellae (<1 µm) on the measured Mg-distribution in individual calcite crystals and compare the modeling results to field data. This study concludes that Mg-distributions in calcite grains of the Ubehebe Peak contact aureole are the consequence of rapid crystal growth in combination with diffusion and exsolution. The crystallization history of a rock is recorded in the chemical composition, the size and the distribution of its minerals. Near the Cima Uzza summit, located in the southern Adamello massif (Italy), contact metamorphic brucite bearing dolomite marbles are exposed as xenoliths surrounded by mafic intrusive rocks. Brucite is formed retrograde pseudomorphing spherical periclase crystals. Crystal size distributions (CSD's) of brucite pseudomorphs are presented for two profiles and combined with geochemistry data and petrological information. Textural analyses are combined with geochemistry data in a qualitative model that describes the formation periclase. As a major outcome, this expands the potential use of CSD's to systems of mineral formation driven by fluid-infiltration. RESUME DE LA THESE La nucléation et la croissance des minéraux métamorphiques sont la conséquence de changements des conditions de pression, température et composition chimique du système (PT-X). Cette thèse s'intéresse aux processus gouvernant la nucléation et la croissance des minéraux au cours d'un épisode de métamorphisme de contact, en utilisant la géochimie analytique (composition chimique, isotopique et en éléments traces), le traitement statistique des données spatiales et la modélisation numérique. Il est montré que la combinaison d'un modèle textural avec des analyses en isotopes stables permet de distinguer plusieurs chemins de réactions possibles conduisant à la croissance de l'olivine dans une auréole de contact riche en Silice et dolomite. Il est suggéré que l'olivine se forme directement à partir de la dolomie et du quartz. Cette réaction métastable de formation de l'olivine implique une cristallisation métamorphique loin de l'équilibre. La principale conséquence est que la distribution spatiale des assemblages de minéraux métamorphiques dans une auréole de contact ne peut pas être considérée comme un témoin de l'évolution temporelle d'un type de roche donné, puisque chaque type de roche suit différents chemins de réactions, en fonction de la température, la vitesse de réchauffement et le taux d'infiltration du fluide. Une étude thermométrique calcite-dolomite détaillée a été réalisée à diverses échelles, depuis l'échelle de l'auréole de contact jusqu'à l'échelle du cristal. Des modèles numériques quantitatifs ont été développés pour évaluer l'effet des zonations de croissance, de la diffusion volumique et de la formation de lamelles d'exsolution submicroscopiques (<1µm) sur la distribution du magnésium mesuré dans des cristaux de calcite individuels. Les résultats de ce modèle ont été comparés ä des échantillons naturels. Cette étude montre que la distribution du Mg dans les grains de calcite de l'auréole de contact de l'Ubehebe Peak (USA) résulte d'une croissance cristalline rapide, associée aux processus de diffusion et d'exsolution. L'histoire de cristallisation d'une roche est enregistrée dans la composition chimique, la taille et la distribution de ses minéraux. Près du sommet Cima Uzza situé au sud du massif d'Adamello (Italie), des marbres dolomitiques à brucite du métamorphisme de contact forment des xénolithes dans une intrusion mafique. La brucite constitue des pseudomorphes rétrogrades du périclase. Les distributions de taille des cristaux (CSD) des pseudomorphes de brucite sont présentées pour deux profiles et sont combinées aux données géochimiques et pétrologiques. Les analyses textorales sont combinées aux données géochimiques dans un modèle qualitatif qui décrit la formation du périclase. Ceci élargit l'utilisation potentielle de la C5D aux systèmes de formation de minéraux controlés par les infiltrations fluides. THESIS ABSTRACT (GENERAL PUBLIC) Rock textures are essentially the result of a complex interaction of nucleation, growth and deformation as a function of changing physical conditions such as pressure and temperature. Igneous and metamorphic textures are especially attractive to study the different mechanisms of texture formation since most of the parameters like pressure-temperature-paths are quite well known for a variety of geological settings. The fact that textures are supposed to record the crystallization history of a rock traditionally allowed them to be used for geothermobarometry or dating. During the last decades the focus of metamorphic petrology changed from a static point of view, i.e. the representation of a texture as one single point in the petrogenetic grid towards a more dynamic view, where multiple metamorphic processes govern the texture formation, including non-equilibrium processes. This thesis tries to advance our understanding on the processes governing nucleation and growth of minerals in contact metamorphic environments and their dynamic interplay by using a combination of geochemical analyses (chemical-, isotope-, and trace element composition), statistical treatments of spatial data and numerical models. In a first part the thesis describes the formation of metamorphic olivine porphyroblast in the Ubehebe Peak contact aureole (USA). It is shown that not the commonly assumed succession of equilibrium reactions along a T-t-path formed the textures present in the rocks today, but rather the presence of a meta-stable reaction is responsible for forming the olivine porphyroblast. Consequently, the spatial distribution of metamorphic minerals within a contact aureole can no longer be regarded as a proxy for the temporal evolution of a single rock sample. Metamorphic peak temperatures for samples of the Ubehebe Peak contact aureole were determined using calcite-dolomite. This geothermometer is based on the temperature-dependent exchange of Mg between calcite and dolomite. The purpose of the second part of this thesis was to explain the interfering systematic scatter of measured Mg-content on different scales and thus to clarify the interpretation of metamorphic temperatures recorded in carbonates. Numerical quantitative forward models are used to evaluate the effect of several processes on the distribution of magnesium in individual calcite crystals and the modeling results were then compared to measured field. Information about the crystallization history is not only recorded in the chemical composition of grains, like isotope composition or mineral zoning. Crystal size distributions (CSD's) provide essential information about the complex interaction of nucleation and growth of minerals. CSD's of brucite pseudomorphs formed retrograde after periclase of the southern Adamello massif (Italy) are presented. A combination of the textural 3D-information with geochemistry data is then used to evaluate reaction kinetics and to constrain the actual reaction mechanism for the formation of periclase. The reaction is shown to be the consequence of the infiltration of a limited amount of a fluid phase at high temperatures. The composition of this fluid phase is in large disequilibrium with the rest of the rock resulting in very fast reaction rates. RESUME DE LA THESE POUR LE GRAND PUBLIC: La texture d'une roche résulte de l'interaction complexe entre les processus de nucléation, croissance et déformation, en fonction des variations de conditions physiques telles que la pression et la température. Les textures ignées et métamorphiques présentent un intérêt particulier pour l'étude des différents mécanismes à l'origine de ces textures, puisque la plupart des paramètres comme les chemin pression-température sont relativement bien contraints dans la plupart des environnements géologiques. Le fait que les textures soient supposées enregistrer l'histoire de cristallisation des roches permet leur utilisation pour la datation et la géothermobarométrie. Durant les dernières décennies, la recherche en pétrologie métamorphique a évolué depuis une visualisation statique, c'est-à-dire qu'une texture donnée correspondait à un point unique de la grille pétrogénétique, jusqu'à une visualisation plus dynamique, où les multiples processus métamorphiques qui gouvernent 1a formation d'une texture incluent des processus hors équilibre. Cette thèse a pour but d'améliorer les connaissances actuelles sur les processus gouvernant la nucléation et la croissance des minéraux lors d'épisodes de métamorphisme de contact et l'interaction dynamique existant entre nucléation et croissance. Pour cela, les analyses géochimiques (compositions chimiques en éléments majeurs et traces et composition isotopique), le traitement statistique des données spatiales et la modélisation numérique ont été combinés. Dans la première partie, cette thèse décrit la formation de porphyroblastes d'olivine métamorphique dans l'auréole de contact de l'Ubehebe Peak (USA). Il est montré que la succession généralement admise des réactions d'équilibre le long d'un chemin T-t ne peut pas expliquer les textures présentes dans les roches aujourd'hui. Cette thèse montre qu'il s'agirait plutôt d'une réaction métastable qui soit responsable de la formation des porphyroblastes d'olivine. En conséquence, la distribution spatiale des minéraux métamorphiques dans l'auréole de contact ne peut plus être interprétée comme le témoin de l'évolution temporelle d'un échantillon unique de roche. Les pics de température des échantillons de l'auréole de contact de l'Ubehebe Peak ont été déterminés grâce au géothermomètre calcite-dolomite. Celui-ci est basé sur l'échange du magnésium entre la calcite et la dolomite, qui est fonction de la température. Le but de la deuxième partie de cette thèse est d'expliquer la dispersion systématique de la composition en magnésium à différentes échelles, et ainsi d'améliorer l'interprétation des températures du métamorphisme enregistrées dans les carbonates. Des modèles numériques quantitatifs ont permis d'évaluer le rôle de différents processus sur la distribution du magnésium dans des cristaux de calcite individuels. Les résultats des modèles ont été comparés aux échantillons naturels. La composition chimique des grains, comme la composition isotopique ou la zonation minérale, n'est pas le seul témoin de l'histoire de la cristallisation. La distribution de la taille des cristaux (CSD) fournit des informations essentielles sur les interactions entre nucléation et croissance des minéraux. La CSD des pseudomorphes de brucite retrograde formés après le périclase dans le sud du massif Adamello (Italie) est présentée dans la troisième partie. La combinaison entre les données textorales en trois dimensions et les données géochimiques a permis d'évaluer les cinétiques de réaction et de contraindre les mécanismes conduisant à la formation du périclase. Cette réaction est présentée comme étant la conséquence de l'infiltration d'une quantité limitée d'une phase fluide à haute température. La composition de cette phase fluide est en grand déséquilibre avec le reste de la roche, ce qui permet des cinétiques de réactions très rapides.

Unfolding a symmetric matrix

Graphical displays which show inter--sample distances are importantfor the interpretation and presentation of multivariate data. Except whenthe displays are two--dimensional, however, they are often difficult tovisualize as a whole. A device, based on multidimensional unfolding, isdescribed for presenting some intrinsically high--dimensional displays infewer, usually two, dimensions. This goal is achieved by representing eachsample by a pair of points, say $R_i$ and $r_i$, so that a theoreticaldistance between the $i$-th and $j$-th samples is represented twice, onceby the distance between $R_i$ and $r_j$ and once by the distance between$R_j$ and $r_i$. Self--distances between $R_i$ and $r_i$ need not be zero.The mathematical conditions for unfolding to exhibit symmetry are established.Algorithms for finding approximate fits, not constrained to be symmetric,are discussed and some examples are given.

Contribution biplots

In order to interpret the biplot it is necessary to know which points usually variables are the ones that are important contributors to the solution, and this information is available separately as part of the biplot s numerical results. We propose a new scaling of the display, called the contribution biplot, which incorporates this diagnostic directly into the graphical display, showing visually the important contributors and thus facilitating the biplot interpretation and often simplifying the graphical representation considerably. The contribution biplot can be applied to a wide variety of analyses such as correspondence analysis, principal component analysis, log-ratio analysis and the graphical results of a discriminant analysis/MANOVA, in fact to any method based on the singular-value decomposition. In the contribution biplot one set of points, usually the rows of the data matrix, optimally represent the spatial positions of the cases or sample units, according to some distance measure that usually incorporates some form of standardization unless all data are comparable in scale. The other set of points, usually the columns, is represented by vectors that are related to their contributions to the low-dimensional solution. A fringe benefit is that usually only one common scale for row and column points is needed on the principal axes, thus avoiding the problem of enlarging or contracting the scale of one set of points to make the biplot legible. Furthermore, this version of the biplot also solves the problem in correspondence analysis of low-frequency categories that are located on the periphery of the map, giving the false impression that they are important, when they are in fact contributing minimally to the solution.

A quantitative analysis of antagonism and inverse agonism at wild-type and constitutively active hamster alpha1B-adrenoceptors.

In order to characterize inverse agonism at alpha1B-adrenoceptors, we have compared the concentration-response relationships of several quinazoline and non-quinazoline alpha1-adrenoceptor antagonists at cloned hamster wild-type (WT) alpha1B-adrenoceptors and a constitutively active mutant (CAM) thereof upon stable expression in Rat-1 fibroblasts. Receptor activation or inhibition thereof was assessed as [3H]inositol phosphate (IP) accumulation. Quinazoline (alfuzosin, doxazosin, prazosin, terazosin) and non-quinazoline alpha1-adrenoceptor antagonists (BE 2254, SB 216,469, tamsulosin) concentration-dependently inhibited phenylephrine-stimulated IP formation at both WT and CAM with Ki values similar to those previously found in radioligand binding studies. At CAM in the absence of phenylephrine, the quinazolines produced concentration-dependent inhibition of basal IP formation; the maximum inhibition was approximately 55%, and the corresponding EC50 values were slightly smaller than the Ki values. In contrast, BE 2254 produced much less inhibition of basal IP formation, SB 216,469 was close to being a neutral antagonist, and tamsulosin even weakly stimulated IP formation. The inhibitory effects of the quinazolines and BE 2254 as well as the stimulatory effect of tamsulosin were equally blocked by SB 216,469 at CAM. At WT in the absence of phenylephrine, tamsulosin did not cause significant stimulation and none of the other compounds caused significant inhibition of basal IP formation. We conclude that alpha1-adrenoceptor antagonsits with a quinazoline structure exhibit greater efficacy as inverse agonists than those without.

Femoroacetabular impingement: normal values of the quantitative morphometric parameters in asymptomatic hips.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the means and the reference intervals of the quantitative morphometric parameters of femoroacetabular impingement (FAI) in normal hips with high-resolution computed tomography (CT). METHODS: We prospectively included 94 adult individuals who underwent CT for thoracic, abdominal or urologic pathologies. Patients with a clinical history of hip pathology and/or with osteoarthritis on CT were excluded. We calculated means and 95 % reference intervals for imaging signs of cam-type (alpha angle at 90° and 45° and femoral head-neck offset) and pincer-type impingement (acetabular version angle, lateral centre-edge angle and acetabular index). RESULTS: The 95 % reference interval limits were all far beyond the abnormal thresholds found in the literature for cam-type and to a lesser extent for pincer-type FAI. The upper limits of the reference intervals for the alpha angles (at 90°/45°) were 68°/83° (men) and 69°/84° (women), compared to thresholds from the literature (50°, 55° or 60°). Reference intervals were similar between genders for cam-type parameters, and slightly differed for pincer-type. CONCLUSION: The 95 % reference intervals of morphometric measurements of FAI in asymptomatic hips were beyond the abnormal thresholds, which was especially true for cam-type FAI. Our results suggest the need for redefining the current morphometric parameters used in the diagnosis of FAI. KEY POINTS: ? 95 % reference intervals limits of FAI morphotype were beyond currently defined thresholds. ? Reference intervals of pincer-type morphotype measurements were close to current definitions. ? Reference intervals of cam-type morphotype measurements were far beyond the current definitions. ? Current morphometric definitions of cam-type morphotype should be used with care.

Calceology : an introduction to North Western European archaeological leather footwear (Neolithic period to c. AD 1600)

Calceology is the study of recovered archaeological leather footwear and is comprised of conservation, documentation and identification of leather shoe components and shoe styles. Recovered leather shoes are complex artefacts that present technical, stylistic and personal information about the culture and people that used them. The current method in calceological research for typology and chronology is by comparison with parallel examples, though its use poses problems by an absence of basic definitions and the lack of a taxonomic hierarchy. The research findings of the primary cutting patterns, used for making all leather footwear, are integrated with the named style method and the Goubitz notation, resulting in a combined methodology as a basis for typological organisation for recovered footwear and a chronology for named shoe styles. The history of calceological research is examined in chapter two and is accompanied by a review of methodological problems as seen in the literature. Through the examination of various documentation and research techniques used during the history of calceological studies, the reasons why a standard typology and methodology failed to develop are investigated. The variety and continual invention of a new research method for each publication of a recovered leather assemblage hindered the development of a single standard methodology. Chapter three covers the initial research with the database through which the primary cutting patterns were identified and the named styles were defined. The chronological span of each named style was established through iterative cross-site sedation and named style comparisons. The technical interpretation of the primary cutting patterns' consistent use is due to constraints imposed by the leather and the forms needed to cover the foot. Basic parts of the shoe patterns and the foot are defined, plus terms provided for identifying the key points for pattern making. Chapter four presents the seventeen primary cutting patterns and their sub-types, these are divided into three main groups: six integral soled patterns, four hybrid soled patterns and seven separately soled patterns. Descriptions of the letter codes, pattern layout, construction principle, closing seam placement and list of sub-types are included in the descriptions of each primary cutting pattern. The named shoe styles and their relative chronology are presented in chapter five. Nomenclature for the named styles is based on the find location of the first published example plus the primary cutting pattern code letter. The named styles are presented in chronological order from Prehistory through to the late 16th century. Short descriptions of the named styles are given and illustrated with examples of recovered archaeological leather footwear, reconstructions of archaeological shoes and iconographical sources. Chapter six presents documentation of recovered archaeological leather using the Goubitz notation, an inventory and description of style elements and fastening methods used for defining named shoe styles, technical information about sole/upper constructions and the consequences created by the use of lasts and sewing forms for style identification and fastening placement in relation to the instep point. The chapter concludes with further technical information about the implications for researchers about shoemaking, pattern making and reconstructive archaeology. The conclusion restates the original research question of why a group of primary cutting patterns appear to have been used consistently throughout the European archaeological record. The quantitative and qualitative results from the database show the use of these patterns but it is the properties of the leather that imposes the use of the primary cutting patterns. The combined methodology of primary pattern identification, named style and artefact registration provides a framework for calceological research.

The biased balance: Observation, formalism and interpretation of a dissymmetric measuring device

This paper studies a balance whose unobservable fulcrum is not necessarilylocated at the middle of its two pans. It presents three differentmodels, showing how this lack of symmetry modifies the observation, theformalism and the interpretation of such a biased measuring device. Itargues that the biased balance can be an interesting source of inspirationfor broadening the representational theory of measurement.

Biased quantitative measurement of interval ordered homothetic preferences

We represent interval ordered homothetic preferences with a quantitative homothetic utility function and a multiplicative bias. When preferences are weakly ordered (i.e. when indifference is transitive), such a bias equals 1. When indifference is intransitive, the biasing factor is a positive function smaller than 1 and measures a threshold of indifference. We show that the bias is constant if and only if preferences are semiordered, and we identify conditions ensuring a linear utility function. We illustrate our approach with indifference sets on a two dimensional commodity space.

3D seismic facies characterization and geological patterns recognition (Australian North West Shelf)

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This PhD research, funded by the Swiss Sciences Foundation, is principally devoted to enhance the recognition, the visualisation and the characterization of geobodies through innovative 3D seismic approaches. A series of case studies from the Australian North West Shelf ensures the development of reproducible integrated 3D workflows and gives new insight into local and regional stratigraphic as well as structural issues. This project was initiated in year 2000 at the Geology and Palaeontology Institute of the University of Lausanne (Switzerland). Several collaborations ensured the improvement of technical approaches as well as the assessment of geological models. - Investigations into the Timor Sea structural style were carried out at the Tectonics Special Research Centre of the University of Western Australia and in collaboration with Woodside Energy in Perth. - Seismic analysis and attributes classification approach were initiated with Schlumberger Oilfield Australia in Perth; assessments and enhancements of the integrated seismic approaches benefited from collaborations with scientists from Schlumberger Stavanger Research (Norway). Adapting and refining from "linear" exploration techniques, a conceptual "helical" 3D seismic approach has been developed. In order to investigate specific geological issues this approach, integrating seismic attributes and visualisation tools, has been refined and adjusted leading to the development of two specific workflows: - A stratigraphic workflow focused on the recognition of geobodies and the characterization of depositional systems. Additionally, it can support the modelling of the subsidence and incidentally the constraint of the hydrocarbon maturity of a given area. - A structural workflow used to quickly and accurately define major and secondary fault systems. The integration of the 3D structural interpretation results ensures the analysis of the fault networks kinematics which can affect hydrocarbon trapping mechanisms. The application of these integrated workflows brings new insight into two complex settings on the Australian North West Shelf and ensures the definition of astonishing stratigraphic and structural outcomes. The stratigraphic workflow ensures the 3D characterization of the Late Palaeozoic glacial depositional system on the Mermaid Nose (Dampier Subbasin, Northern Carnarvon Basin) that presents similarities with the glacial facies along the Neotethys margin up to Oman (chapter 3.1). A subsidence model reveals the Phanerozoic geodynamic evolution of this area (chapter 3.2) and emphasizes two distinct mode of regional extension for the Palaeozoic (Neotethys opening) and Mesozoic (abyssal plains opening). The structural workflow is used for the definition of the structural evolution of the Laminaria High area (Bonaparte Basin). Following a regional structural characterization of the Timor Sea (chapter 4.1), a thorough analysis of the Mesozoic fault architecture reveals a local rotation of the stress field and the development of reverse structures (flower structures) in extensional setting, that form potential hydrocarbon traps (chapter 4.2). The definition of the complex Neogene structural architecture associated with the fault kinematic analysis and a plate flexure model (chapter 4.3) suggest that the Miocene to Pleistocene reactivation phases recorded at the Laminaria High most probably result from the oblique normal reactivation of the underlying Mesozoic fault planes. This episode is associated with the deformation of the subducting Australian plate. Based on these results three papers were published in international journals and two additional publications will be submitted. Additionally this research led to several communications in international conferences. Although the different workflows presented in this research have been primarily developed and used for the analysis of specific stratigraphic and structural geobodies on the Australian North West Shelf, similar integrated 3D seismic approaches will have applications to hydrocarbon exploration and production phases; for instance increasing the recognition of potential source rocks, secondary migration pathways, additional traps or reservoir breaching mechanisms. The new elements brought by this research further highlight that 3D seismic data contains a tremendous amount of hidden geological information waiting to be revealed and that will undoubtedly bring new insight into depositional systems, structural evolution and geohistory of the areas reputed being explored and constrained and other yet to be constrained. The further development of 3D texture attributes highlighting specific features of the seismic signal, the integration of quantitative analysis for stratigraphic and structural processes, the automation of the interpretation workflow as well as the formal definition of "seismo-morphologic" characteristics of a wide range of geobodies from various environments would represent challenging examples of continuation of this present research. The 21st century will most probably represent a transition period between fossil and other alternative energies. The next generation of seismic interpreters prospecting for hydrocarbon will undoubtedly face new challenges mostly due to the shortage of obvious and easy targets. They will probably have to keep on integrating techniques and geological processes in order to further capitalise the seismic data for new potentials definition. Imagination and creativity will most certainly be among the most important quality required from such geoscientists.

Quantitative Assessment of Handwriting Evidence: The Value of the Shape of the Letter "A"

To provide a quantitative support to the handwriting evidence evaluation, a new method was developed through the computation of a likelihood ratio based on a Bayesian approach. In the present paper, the methodology is briefly described and applied to data collected within a simulated case of a threatening letter. Fourier descriptors are used to characterise the shape of loops of handwritten characters "a" of the true writer of the threatening letter, and: 1) with reference characters "a" of the true writer of the threatening letter, and then 2) with characters "a" of a writer who did not write the threatening letter. The findings support that the probabilistic methodology correctly supports either the hypothesis of authorship or the alternative hypothesis. Further developments will enable the handwriting examiner to use this methodology as a helpful assistance to assess the strength of evidence in handwriting casework.

On the quantitative importance of wage bargaining models

Four general equilibrium search models are compared quantitatively. Thebaseline framework is a calibrated macroeconomic model of the US economydesigned for a welfare analysis of unemployment insurance policy. Theother models make three simple and natural specification changes,regarding tax incidence, monopsony power in wage determination, and therelevant threat point. These specification changes have a major impacton the equilibrium and on the welfare implications of unemploymentinsurance, partly because search externalities magnify the effects ofwage changes. The optimal level of unemployment insurance dependsstrongly on whether raising benefits has a larger impact on searcheffort or on hiring expenditure.