Regional-scale debris-flow risk assessment for an alpine valley

In this paper, we perform a societal and economic risk assessment for debris flows at the regional scale, for lower Valtellina, Northern Italy. We apply a simple empirical debris-flow model, FLOW-R, which couples a probabilistic flow routing algorithm with an energy line approach, providing the relative probability of transit, and the maximum kinetic energy, for each cell. By assessing a vulnerability to people and to other exposed elements (buildings, public facilities, crops, woods, communication lines), and their economic value, we calculated the expected annual losses both in terms of lives (societal risk) and goods (direct economic risk). For societal risk assessment, we distinguish for the day and night scenarios. The distribution of people at different moments of the day was considered, accounting for the occupational and recreational activities, to provide a more realistic assessment of risk. Market studies were performed in order to assess a realistic economic value to goods, structures, and lifelines. As terrain unit, a 20 m x 20 m cell was used, in accordance with data availability and the spatial resolution requested for a risk assessment at this scale. Societal risk the whole area amounts to 1.98 and 4.22 deaths/year for the day and the night scenarios, respectively, with a maximum of 0.013 deaths/year/cell. Economic risk for goods amounts to 1,760,291 ?/year, with a maximum of 13,814 ?/year/cell.

Incremental Prognostic Value of Myocardial Blood Flow Quantification with Rb-82 Cardiac PET in Patients With Known or Suspected CAD

Rb-82cardiac PET has been used to non-invasively assess myocardial blood flow (MBF)and myocardial flow reserve (MFR). The impact of MBF and MFR for predictingmajor adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) has not been investigated in aprospective study, which was our aim. MATERIAL AND METHODS: In total, 280patients (65±10y, 36% women) with known or suspected CAD were prospectivelyenrolled. They all underwent both a rest and adenosine stress Rb-82 cardiacPET/CT. Dynamic acquisitions were processed with the FlowQuant 2.1.3 softwareand analyzed semi-quantitatively (SSS, SDS) and quantitatively (MBF, MFR) andreported using the 17-segment AHA model. Patients were stratified based on SDS,stress MBF and MFR and allocated into tertiles. For each group, annualizedevent rates were computed by dividing the number of annualized MACE (cardiacdeath, myocardial infarction, revascularisation or hospitalisation forcardiac-related event) by the sum of individual follow-up periods in years.Outcome were analysed for each group using Kaplan-Meier event-free survivalcurves and compared using the log-rank test. Multivariate analysis wasperformed in a stepwise fashion using Cox proportional hazards regressionmodels (p<0.05 for model inclusion). RESULTS: In a median follow-up of 256days (range 168-440d), 44 MACE were observed. Ischemia (SDS≥2) was observed in95 patients who had higher annualized MACE rate as compared to those without(55% vs. 9.8%, p<0.0001). The group with the lowest MFR tertile (MFR<1.76)had higher MACE rate than the two highest tertiles (51% vs. 9% and 14%,p<0.0001). Similarly, the group with the lowest stress MBF tertile(MBF<1.78mL/min/g) had the highest annualized MACE rate (41% vs. 26% and 6%,p=0.0002). On multivariate analysis, the addition of MFR or stress MBF to SDSsignificantly increased the global χ2 (from 56 to 60, p=0.04; and from56 to 63, p=0.01). The best prognostic power was obtained in a model combiningSDS (p<0.001) and stress MBF (p=0.01). Interestingly, the integration ofstress MBF enhanced risk stratification even in absence of ischemia.CONCLUSIONS: Quantification of MBF or MFR in Rb-82 cardiac PET/CT providesindependent and incremental prognostic information over semi-quantitativeassessment with SDS and is of value for risk stratification.

Debris flow susceptibility mapping at a regional scale along the National Road N7, Argentina

A first assessment of debris flow susceptibility at a large scale was performed along the National Road N7, Argentina. Numerous catchments are prone to debris flows and likely to endanger the road-users. A 1:50,000 susceptibility map was created. The use of a DEM (grid 30 m) associated to three complementary criteria (slope, contributing area, curvature) allowed the identification of potential source areas. The debris flow spreading was estimated using a process- and GISbased model (Flow-R) based on basic probabilistic and energy calculations. The best-fit values for the coefficient of friction and the mass-to-drag ratio of the PCM model were found to be ? = 0.02 and M/D = 180 and the resulting propagation on one of the calibration site was validated using the Coulomb friction model. The results are realistic and will be useful to determine which areas need to be prioritized for detailed studies.

Evolution of a debris flow channel monitored using a 3D terrestrial laser scanner

Like numerous torrents in mountainous regions, the Illgraben creek (canton of Wallis, SW Switzerland) produces almost every year several debris flows. The total area of the active catchment is only 4.7 km², but large events ranging from 50'000 to 400'000 m³ are common (Zimmermann 2000). Consequently, the pathway of the main channel often changes suddenly. One single event can for instance fill the whole river bed and dig new several-meters-deep channels somewhere else (Bardou et al. 2003). The quantification of both, the rhythm and the magnitude of these changes, is very important to assess the variability of the bed's cross section and long profile. These parameters are indispensable for numerical modelling, as they should be considered as initial conditions. To monitor the channel evolution an Optech ILRIS 3D terrestrial laser scanner (LIDAR) was used. LIDAR permits to make a complete high precision 3D model of the channel and its surroundings by scanning it from different view points. The 3D data are treated and interpreted with the software Polyworks from Innovmetric Software Inc. Sequential 3D models allow for the determination of the variation in the bed's cross section and long profile. These data will afterwards be used to quantify the erosion and the deposition in the torrent reaches. To complete the chronological evolution of the landforms, precise digital terrain models, obtained by high resolution photogrammetry based on old aerial photographs, will be used. A 500 m long section of the Illgraben channel was scanned on 18th of August 2005 and on 7th of April 2006. These two data sets permit identifying the changes of the channel that occurred during the winter season. An upcoming scanning campaign in September 2006 will allow for the determination of the changes during this summer. Preliminary results show huge variations in the pathway of the Illgraben channel, as well as important vertical and lateral erosion of the river bed. Here we present the results of a river bank on the left (north-western) flank of the channel (Figure 1). For the August 2005 model the scans from 3 viewpoints were superposed, whereas the April 2006 3D image was obtained by combining 5 separate scans. The bank was eroded. The bank got eroded essentially on its left part (up to 6.3 m), where it is hit by the river and the debris flows (Figures 2 and 3). A debris cone has also formed (Figure 3), which suggests that a part of the bank erosion is due to shallow landslides. They probably occur when the river erosion creates an undercut slope. These geometrical data allow for the monitoring of the alluvial dynamics (i.e. aggradation and degradation) on different time scales and the influence of debris flows occurrence on these changes. Finally, the resistance against erosion of the bed's cross section and long profile will be analysed to assess the variability of these two key parameters. This information may then be used in debris flow simulation.

Using 80 kVp versus 120 kVp in perfusion CT measurement of regional cerebral blood flow.

Perfusion CT studies of regional cerebral blood flow (rCBF), involving sequential acquisition of cerebral CT sections during IV contrast material administration, have classically been reported to be achieved at 120 kVp. We hypothesized that using 80 kVp should result in the same image quality while significantly lowering the patient's radiation dose, and we evaluated this assumption. In five patients undergoing cerebral CT survey, one section level was imaged at 120 kVp and 80 kVp, before and after IV administration of iodinated contrast material. These four cerebral CT sections obtained in each patient were analyzed with special interest to contrast, noise, and radiation dose. Contrast enhancement at 80 kVp is significantly increased (P < .001), as well as contrast between gray matter and white matter after contrast enhancement (P < .001). Mean noise at 80 kVp is not statistically different (P = .042). Finally, performance of perfusion CT studies at 80 kVp, keeping mAs constant, lowers the radiation dose by a factor of 2.8. We, thus, conclude that 80 kVp acquisition of perfusion CT studies of rCBF will result in increased contrast enhancement and should improve rCBF analysis, with a reduced patient's irradiation.

Structural alterations of the coronary arterial wall are associated with myocardial flow heterogeneity in type 2 diabetes mellitus.

PURPOSE: To determine the relationship between carotid intima-media thickness (IMT), coronary artery calcification (CAC), and myocardial blood flow (MBF) at rest and during vasomotor stress in type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM). METHODS: In 68 individuals, carotid IMT was measured using high-resolution vascular ultrasound, while the presence of CAC was determined with electron beam tomography (EBT). Global and regional MBF was determined in milliliters per gram per minute with (13)N-ammonia and positron emission tomography (PET) at rest, during cold pressor testing (CPT), and during adenosine (ADO) stimulation. RESULTS: There was neither a relationship between carotid IMT and CAC (r = 0.10, p = 0.32) nor between carotid IMT and coronary circulatory function in response to CPT and during ADO (r = -0.18, p = 0.25 and r = 0.10, p = 0.54, respectively). In 33 individuals, EBT detected CAC with a mean Agatston-derived calcium score of 44 +/- 18. There was a significant difference in regional MBFs between territories with and without CAC at rest and during ADO-stimulated hyperemia (0.69 +/- 0.24 vs. 0.74 +/- 0.23 and 1.82 +/- 0.50 vs. 1.95 +/- 0.51 ml/g/min; p < or = 0.05, respectively) and also during CPT in DM but less pronounced (0.81 +/- 0.24 vs. 0.83 +/- 0.23 ml/g/min; p = ns). The increase in CAC was paralleled with a progressive regional decrease in resting as well as in CPT- and ADO-related MBFs (r = -0.36, p < or = 0.014; r = -0.46, p < or = 0.007; and r = -0.33, p < or = 0.041, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: The absence of any correlation between carotid IMT and coronary circulatory function in type 2 DM suggests different features and stages of early atherosclerosis in the peripheral and coronary circulation. PET-measured MBF heterogeneity at rest and during vasomotor stress may reflect downstream fluid dynamic effects of coronary artery disease (CAD)-related early structural alterations of the arterial wall.

Added prognostic value of myocardial blood flow quantitation in rubidium-82 positron emission tomography imaging

Les maladies cardiovasculaires restent la cause de mortalité la plus élevée dans le monde occidental. Il s'agit d'un processus long et complexe, dont l'infarctus du myocarde et la mort cardiaque ne sont que la fin d'un spectrum. La perfusion myocardique joue un rôle central dans l'évolution de la maladie et survient chronologiquement en amont de la dysfonction diastolique et systolique, ainsi que de l'infarctus du myocarde. Une meilleure compréhension de la Physiopathologie sous-jacente est cruciale dans le diagnostique et la prise en charge du patient. Dans ce sens, ce travail tente d'évaluer l'apport de l'évaluation de la perfusion myocardique évaluée par la tomographic à émission de positron (PET/CT) quant à la prédiction d'événements cardiovasculaires. De plus, l'apport de l'évaluation quantitative par rapport à l'évaluation qualitative a été démontré dans ce travail. Nous avons utilisé un radiotraceur unique au regard de ses caractéristiques. En effet, Le Rubidium-82 est un traceur qui ne nécessite pas d'un cyclotron pour sa fabrication, dès lors qu'il est produit par un générateur, rendant ainsi sa disponibilité un atout et un avantage potentiel lors de futurs implémentations à plus grande échelle. Ce travail démontre la supériorité de l'analyse de perfusion myocardique quantitative par rapport à l'analyse traditionnelle qualitative, ce qui n'était pas encore confirmé avec le Rubidium-82. Les résultats montrent une démarcation significative entre les différentes valeurs de perfusion quantitative/absolue, permettant de distinguer différentes populations plus ou moins à risque en terme de prédiction d'événements cardiaques futurs. Il est intéressant de noter que dans un modèle combinant l'analyse qualitative et quantitative proposé dans ce travail, l'inclusion des résultats les plus ischémiques obtenus par l'analyse qualitative avec les résultats de perfusion les plus bas en terme de flux myocardique absolu (analyse quantitative) démarque une population à très bas risque d'événements cardiovasculaires majeurs, une prédiction pouvant être observée surplus de 1'000 jours. Ces résultats forment un ajout significatif quant à l'évaluation de la perfusion myocardique par la médecine nucléaire, notamment par ce model intégratif proposé, lequel permet une prédiction précise et contributive dans le cadre de futurs événements cardiovasculaires majeurs.

Red blood cell microparticles and blood group antigens: an analysis by flow cytometry.

BACKGROUND: The storage of blood induces the formation of erythrocytes-derived microparticles. Their pathogenic role in blood transfusion is not known so far, especially the risk to trigger alloantibody production in the recipient. This work aims to study the expression of clinically significant blood group antigens on the surface of red blood cells microparticles. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Red blood cells contained in erythrocyte concentrates were stained with specific antibodies directed against blood group antigens and routinely used in immunohematology practice. After inducing erythrocytes vesiculation with calcium ionophore, the presence of blood group antigens was analysed by flow cytometry. RESULTS: The expression of several blood group antigens from the RH, KEL, JK, FY, MNS, LE and LU systems was detected on erythrocyte microparticles. The presence of M (MNS1), N (MNS2) and s (MNS4) antigens could not be demonstrated by flow cytometry, despite that glycophorin A and B were identified on microparticles using anti-CD235a and anti-MNS3. DISCUSSION: We conclude that blood group antigens are localized on erythrocytes-derived microparticles and probably keep their immunogenicity because of their capacity to bind specific antibody. Selective segregation process during vesiculation or their ability to elicit an immune response in vivo has to be tested by further studies.

Comparativecost-effectivenessanalyses of cardiacmagneticresonanceimaging versus invasive coronary angiography combined with fractional flow reserve testing to diagnose ischemia in coronary artery disease

Introduction: According to guidelines, patients with coronary artery disease (CAD) should undergo revascularization if myocardial ischemia is present. While coronary angiography (CXA) allows the morphological assessment of CAD, the fractional flow reserve (FFR) has proved to be a complementary invasive test to assess the functional significance of CAD, i.e. to detect ischemia. Perfusion Cardiac Magnetic Resonance (CMR) has turned out to be a robust non-invasive technique to assess myocardial ischemia. The objective: is to compare the cost-effectiveness ratio - defined as the costs per patient correctly diagnosed - of two algorithms used to diagnose hemodynamically significant CAD in relation to the pretest likelihood of CAD: 1) aCMRto assess ischemia before referring positive patients to CXA (CMR + CXA), 2) a CXA in all patients combined with a FFR test in patients with angiographically positive stenoses (CXA + FFR). Methods: The costs, evaluated from the health care system perspective in the Swiss, German, the United Kingdom (UK) and the United States (US) contexts, included public prices of the different tests considered as outpatient procedures, complications' costs and costs induced by diagnosis errors (false negative). The effectiveness criterion wasthe ability to accurately identify apatient with significantCAD.Test performancesused in the model were based on the clinical literature. Using a mathematical model, we compared the cost-effectiveness ratio for both algorithms for hypothetical patient cohorts with different pretest likelihood of CAD. Results: The cost-effectiveness ratio decreased hyperbolically with increasing pretest likelihood of CAD for both strategies. CMR + CXA and CXA + FFR were equally costeffective at a pretest likelihood of CAD of 62% in Switzerland, 67% in Germany, 83% in the UK and 84% in the US with costs of CHF 5'794, Euros 1'472, £ 2'685 and $ 2'126 per patient correctly diagnosed. Below these thresholds, CMR + CXA showed lower costs per patient correctly diagnosed than CXA + FFR. Implications for the health care system/professionals/patients/society These results facilitate decision making for the clinical use of new generations of imaging procedures to detect ischemia. They show to what extent the cost-effectiveness to diagnose CAD depends on the prevalence of the disease.

Fluid flow through the sedimentary cover in northern Switzerland recorded by calcite-celestite veins (Oftringen borehole, Olten)

Abundant veins filled by calcite, celestite and pyrite were found in the core of a 719 m deep borehole drilled in Oftringen near Olten, located in the north-western Molasse basin, close to the thrust of the Folded Jura. Host rocks are calcareous marl, argillaceous limestone and limestone of the Dogger and Malm. The delta O-18 values of vein calcite are lower than in host rock carbonate and, together with microthermometric data from fluid inclusions in vein calcite, indicate precipitation from a seawater-dominated fluid at average temperatures of 56-68A degrees C. Such temperatures were reached at the time of maximum burial of the sedimentary pile in the late Miocene. The depth profile of delta C-13 and Sr-87/Sr-86 values and Sr content of both whole-rock carbonate and vein calcite show marked trends towards negative delta C-13, high Sr-87/Sr-86, and low Sr content in the uppermost 50-150 m of the Jurassic profile (upper Oxfordian). The Sr-87/Sr-86 of vein minerals is generally higher than that of host rock carbonate, up to very high values corresponding to Burdigalian seawater (Upper Marine Molasse, Miocene), which represents the last marine incursion in the region. No evidence for internally derived radiogenic Sr (clay minerals) has been found and so an external source is required. S and O isotope composition of vein celestite and pyrite can be explained by bacterial reduction of Miocene seawater sulphate. The available data set suggests the vein mineralization precipitated from descending Burdigalian seawater and not from a fluid originating in the underlying Triassic evaporites.

Polyhydroxyalkanoate synthesis in transgenic plants as a new tool to study carbon flow through beta-oxidation.

Transgenic plants producing peroxisomal polyhydroxy- alkanoate (PHA) from intermediates of fatty acid degradation were used to study carbon flow through the beta-oxidation cycle. Growth of transgenic plants in media containing fatty acids conjugated to Tween detergents resulted in an increased accumulation of PHA and incorporation into the polyester of monomers derived from the beta-oxidation of these fatty acids. Tween-laurate was a stronger inducer of beta-oxidation, as measured by acyl-CoA oxidase activity, and a more potent modulator of PHA quantity and monomer composition than Tween-oleate. Plants co-expressing a peroxisomal PHA synthase with a capryl-acyl carrier protein thioesterase from Cuphea lanceolata produced eightfold more PHA compared to plants expressing only the PHA synthase. PHA produced in double transgenic plants contained mainly saturated monomers ranging from 6 to 10 carbons, indicating an enhanced flow of capric acid towards beta-oxidation. Together, these results support the hypothesis that plant cells have mechanisms which sense levels of free or esterified unusual fatty acids, resulting in changes in the activity of the beta-oxidation cycle as well as removal and degradation of these unusual fatty acids through beta-oxidation. Such enhanced flow of fatty acids through beta-oxidation can be utilized to modulate the amount and composition of PHA produced in transgenic plants. Furthermore, synthesis of PHAs in plants can be used as a new tool to study the quality and relative quantity of the carbon flow through beta-oxidation as well as to analyse the degradation pathway of unusual fatty acids.

Telomere length dynamics in human lymphocyte subpopulations measured by flow cytometry.

To measure the average length of telomere repeats at chromosome ends in individual cells we developed a flow cytometry method using fluorescence in situ hybridization (flow FISH) with labeled peptide nucleic acid (PNA) probes. Results of flow FISH measurements correlated with results of conventional telomere length measurements by Southern blot analysis (R = 0.9). Consistent differences in telomere length in CD8+ T-cell subsets were identified. Naive and memory CD4+ T lymphocytes in normal adults differed by around 2.5 kb in telomere length, in agreement with known replicative shortening of telomeres in lymphocytes in vivo. T-cell clones grown in vitro showed stabilization of telomere length after an initial decline and rare clones capable of growing beyond 100 population doublings showed variable telomere length. These results show that flow FISH can be used to measure specific nucleotide repeat sequences in single cells and indicate that the very large replicative potential of lymphocytes is only indirectly related to telomere length.

Market rewards to patterns on increasing earnings: do cash flow patterns, accruals manipulation and real activities manipulation matter?

This study explores whether firms have differential price-earnings multiples associated with their means of achieving a sequential pattern of increasing positive earnings. Our main findings show that market participants assign higher price-earnings multiples to firms when their pattern of increasing earnings is supported by the same pattern of increasing cash flows. Market participants assign lower price-earnings multiples to firms suspect of having engaged in accrual-based earnings management, sales manipulation, and overproduction to achieve the earnings pattern. We find, however, that market participants do not penalize firms suspect of having achieved the earnings pattern through the opportunistic reduction of discretionary expenses.