965 resultados para Probabilistic choice models
Resumo:
This paper presents both the theoretical and the experimental approaches of the development of a mathematical model to be used in multi-variable control system designs of an active suspension for a sport utility vehicle (SUV), in this case a light pickup truck. A complete seven-degree-of-freedom model is successfully quickly identified, with very satisfactory results in simulations and in real experiments conducted with the pickup truth. The novelty of the proposed methodology is the use of commercial software in the early stages of the identification to speed up the process and to minimize the need for a large number of costly experiments. The paper also presents major contributions to the identification of uncertainties in vehicle suspension models and in the development of identification methods using the sequential quadratic programming, where an innovation regarding the calculation of the objective function is proposed and implemented. Results from simulations of and practical experiments with the real SUV are presented, analysed, and compared, showing the potential of the method.
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A methodology for rock-excavation structural-reliability analysis that uses Distinct Element Method numerical models is presented. The methodology solves the problem of the conventional numerical models that supply only punctual results and use fixed input parameters, without considering its statistical errors. The analysis of rock-excavation stability must consider uncertainties from geological variability, from uncertainty in the choice of mechanical behaviour hypothesis, and from uncertainties in parameters adopted in numerical model construction. These uncertainties can be analyzed in simple deterministic models, but a new methodology was developed for numerical models with results of several natures. The methodology is based on Monte Carlo simulations and uses principles of Paraconsistent Logic. It will be presented in the analysis of a final slope of a large-dimensioned surface mine.
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This paper presents new insights and novel algorithms for strategy selection in sequential decision making with partially ordered preferences; that is, where some strategies may be incomparable with respect to expected utility. We assume that incomparability amongst strategies is caused by indeterminacy/imprecision in probability values. We investigate six criteria for consequentialist strategy selection: Gamma-Maximin, Gamma-Maximax, Gamma-Maximix, Interval Dominance, Maximality and E-admissibility. We focus on the popular decision tree and influence diagram representations. Algorithms resort to linear/multilinear programming; we describe implementation and experiments. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
Steady-state and time-resolved fluorescence measurements are reported for several crude oils and their saturates, aromatics, resins, and asphaltenes (SARA) fractions (saturates, aromatics and resins), isolated from maltene after pentane precipitation of the asphaltenes. There is a clear relationship between the American Petroleum Institute (API) grade of the crude oils and their fluorescence emission intensity and maxima. Dilution of the crude oil samples with cyclohexane results in a significant increase of emission intensity and a blue shift, which is a clear indication of the presence of energy-transfer processes between the emissive chromophores present in the crude oil. Both the fluorescence spectra and the mean fluorescence lifetimes of the three SARA fractions and their mixtures indicate that the aromatics and resins are the major contributors to the emission of crude oils. Total synchronous fluorescence scan (TSFS) spectral maps are preferable to steady-state fluorescence spectra for discriminating between the fractions, making TSFS maps a particularly interesting choice for the development of fluorescence-based methods for the characterization and classification of crude oils. More detailed studies, using a much wider range of excitation and emission wavelengths, are necessary to determine the utility of time-resolved fluorescence (TRF) data for this purpose. Preliminary models constructed using TSFS spectra from 21 crude oil samples show a very good correlation (R(2) > 0.88) between the calculated and measured values of API and the SARA fraction concentrations. The use of models based on a fast fluorescence measurement may thus be an alternative to tedious and time-consuming chemical analysis in refineries.
Resumo:
Susceptible-infective-removed (SIR) models are commonly used for representing the spread of contagious diseases. A SIR model can be described in terms of a probabilistic cellular automaton (PCA), where each individual (corresponding to a cell of the PCA lattice) is connected to others by a random network favoring local contacts. Here, this framework is employed for investigating the consequences of applying vaccine against the propagation of a contagious infection, by considering vaccination as a game, in the sense of game theory. In this game, the players are the government and the susceptible newborns. In order to maximize their own payoffs, the government attempts to reduce the costs for combating the epidemic, and the newborns may be vaccinated only when infective individuals are found in their neighborhoods and/or the government promotes an immunization program. As a consequence of these strategies supported by cost-benefit analysis and perceived risk, numerical simulations show that the disease is not fully eliminated and the government implements quasi-periodic vaccination campaigns. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
This work introduces the problem of the best choice among M combinations of the shortest paths for dynamic provisioning of lightpaths in all-optical networks. To solve this problem in an optimized way (shortest path and load balance), a new fixed routing algorithm, named Best among the Shortest Routes (BSR), is proposed. The BSR`s performance is compared in terms of blocking probability and network utilization with Dijkstra`s shortest path algorithm and others algorithms proposed in the literature. The evaluated scenarios include several representative topologies for all-optical networking and different wavelength conversion architectures. For all studied scenarios, BSR achieved superior performance. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
There are several ways of controlling the propagation of a contagious disease. For instance, to reduce the spreading of an airborne infection, individuals can be encouraged to remain in their homes and/or to wear face masks outside their domiciles. However, when a limited amount of masks is available, who should use them: the susceptible subjects, the infective persons or both populations? Here we employ susceptible-infective-recovered (SIR) models described in terms of ordinary differential equations and probabilistic cellular automata in order to investigate how the deletion of links in the random complex network representing the social contacts among individuals affects the dynamics of a contagious disease. The inspiration for this study comes from recent discussions about the impact of measures usually recommended by health public organizations for preventing the propagation of the swine influenza A (H1N1) virus. Our answer to this question can be valid for other eco-epidemiological systems. (C) 2010 Elsevier BM. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
We study the spreading of contagious diseases in a population of constant size using susceptible-infective-recovered (SIR) models described in terms of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) and probabilistic cellular automata (PCA). In the PCA model, each individual (represented by a cell in the lattice) is mainly locally connected to others. We investigate how the topological properties of the random network representing contacts among individuals influence the transient behavior and the permanent regime of the epidemiological system described by ODE and PCA. Our main conclusions are: (1) the basic reproduction number (commonly called R(0)) related to a disease propagation in a population cannot be uniquely determined from some features of transient behavior of the infective group; (2) R(0) cannot be associated to a unique combination of clustering coefficient and average shortest path length characterizing the contact network. We discuss how these results can embarrass the specification of control strategies for combating disease propagations. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
The ideal conditions for the operation of tandem cold mills are connected to a set of references generated by models and used by dynamic regulators. Aiming at the optimization of the friction and yield stress coefficients an adaptation algorithm is proposed in this paper. Experimental results obtained from an industrial cold rolling mill are presented. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
This letter addresses the optimization and complexity reduction of switch-reconfigured antennas. A new optimization technique based on graph models is investigated. This technique is used to minimize the redundancy in a reconfigurable antenna structure and reduce its complexity. A graph modeling rule for switch-reconfigured antennas is proposed, and examples are presented.
Resumo:
Distribution of timing signals is an essential factor for the development of digital systems for telecommunication networks, integrated circuits and manufacturing automation. Originally, this distribution was implemented by using the master-slave architecture with a precise master clock generator sending signals to phase-locked loops (PLL) working as slave oscillators. Nowadays, wireless networks with dynamical connectivity and the increase in size and operation frequency of the integrated circuits suggest that the distribution of clock signals could be more efficient if mutually connected architectures were used. Here, mutually connected PLL networks are studied and conditions for synchronous states existence are analytically derived, depending on individual node parameters and network connectivity, considering that the nodes are nonlinear oscillators with nonlinear coupling conditions. An expression for the network synchronisation frequency is obtained. The lock-in range and the transmission error bounds are analysed providing hints to the design of this kind of clock distribution system.
Resumo:
Eight different models to represent the effect of friction in control valves are presented: four models based on physical principles and four empirical ones. The physical models, both static and dynamic, have the same structure. The models are implemented in Simulink/Matlab (R) and compared, using different friction coefficients and input signals. Three of the models were able to reproduce the stick-slip phenomenon and passed all the tests, which were applied following ISA standards. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
This paper presents two strategies for the upgrade of set-up generation systems for tandem cold mills. Even though these mills have been modernized mainly due to quality requests, their upgrades may be made intending to replace pre-calculated reference tables. In this case, Bryant and Osborn mill model without adaptive technique is proposed. As a more demanding modernization, Bland and Ford model including adaptation is recommended, although it requires a more complex computational hardware. Advantages and disadvantages of these two systems are compared and discussed and experimental results obtained from an industrial cold mill are shown.
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Computer viruses are an important risk to computational systems endangering either corporations of all sizes or personal computers used for domestic applications. Here, classical epidemiological models for disease propagation are adapted to computer networks and, by using simple systems identification techniques a model called SAIC (Susceptible, Antidotal, Infectious, Contaminated) is developed. Real data about computer viruses are used to validate the model. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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In this paper, we compare three residuals to assess departures from the error assumptions as well as to detect outlying observations in log-Burr XII regression models with censored observations. These residuals can also be used for the log-logistic regression model, which is a special case of the log-Burr XII regression model. For different parameter settings, sample sizes and censoring percentages, various simulation studies are performed and the empirical distribution of each residual is displayed and compared with the standard normal distribution. These studies suggest that the residual analysis usually performed in normal linear regression models can be straightforwardly extended to the modified martingale-type residual in log-Burr XII regression models with censored data.