Can OBAMA win Re-election? Demographics vs. Economics in the 2012 Election

Lincoln famously spoke of government “of the people, by the p eople, and for the people.” But who, exactly, are “the people”? Which demographic characteristics are the most politically significant? And who will actually turn out to vote? Dr. Ruy Teixeira, Senior Fellow at The Century Foundation and the Center for American Progress, will consider these questions against the backdrop of this year’s presidential campaign.

Servizi Sociali Territoriali e Università: Esempi di Sinergie Possibili per un Percorso di Qualità

Although – or because – social work education in Italy has for some 15 years now been exclusively in the domain of the university the relationship between the academic world and that of practice has been highly tenuous. Research is indeed being conducted by universities, but rarely on issues that are of immediate practice relevance. This means that forms of practice develop and become established habitually which are not checked against rigorous standards of research and that the creation of knowledge at academic level pays scant attention to the practice implications of social changes. This situation has been made even worse by the dwindling resources both in social services and at the level of the universities which means that bureaucratic procedures or imports of specialisations from other disciplines frequently dominate the development of practice instead of a theory-based approach to methodology. This development does not do justice to the actual requirements of Italian society faced with ever increasing post-modern complexity which is reflected also in the nature of social problems because it implies a continuation of a faith in modernity with its idea of technical, clear-cut solutions while social relations have decidedly moved beyond that belief. This discrepancy puts even greater strain on the personnel of welfare agencies and does ultimately not satisfy the ever increasing demands for quality and accountability of services on the part of users and the general public. Social workers badly lack fundamental theoretical reference points which could guide them in their difficult work to arrive at autonomous, situation-specific methodological answers not based on procedures but on analytical knowledge. Thirty years ago, in 1977, a Presidential Decree created the legal basis for the establishment of social service departments at the level of municipalities which created opportunities for the direct involvement of the community in the fight against exclusion. For this potential to be fully utilized it would have required the bringing together of three dimensions, the organizational structure, the opportunities for learning and research in the territory and the contribution by the professional community. As this did not occur social services in Italy still often retain the character of charity which does not concern itself with the actual causes of poverty and exclusion. This in turn affects the relationship with citizens in general who cannot develop trust in those services. Through uncritical processes of interaction Edgar Morin’s dictum manifests itself which is that without resorting to critical reflection on complexity interventions can often have an effect that totally the opposite to the original intention. An important element in setting up a dynamic interchange between academia and practice is the placement on professional social work courses. Here the looping of theory to practice and back to theory etc. can actually take place under the right organizational and conceptual conditions, more so than in abstract, and for practitioners often useless debates about the theory-practice connection. Furthermore, research projects at the University of Florence Social Work Department for instance aim at fostering theoretical reflection at the level of and with the involvement of municipal social service agencies. With a general constructive disposition towards research and some financial investment students were facilitated to undertake social service practice related research for their degree theses for instance in the city of Pistoia. In this way it was also possible to strengthen the confidence and professional identity of social workers as they became aware of the contribution their own discipline can make to practice-relevant research instead of having to move over to disciplines like psychology for those purposes. Examples of this fruitful collaboration were presented at a conference in Pistoia on 25 June 2007. One example is a thesis entitled ‘The object of social work’ and examines the difficult development of definitions of social work and comes to the conclusion that ‘nothing is more practical than a theory’. Another is on coping abilities as a necessary precondition for the utilization of resources supplied by social services in exceptional circumstances. Others deal with the actual sequence of interventions in crisis situations, and one very interestingly looks at time and how it is being constructed often differently by professionals and clients. At the same time as this collaboration on research gathers momentum in the Toscana, supervision is also being demanded more forcefully as complementary to research and with the same aim of profiling more strongly the professional identity of social work. Collaboration between university and social service filed is for mutual benefit. At a time when professional practice is under threat of being defined from the outside through bureaucratic prescriptions a sound grounding in theory is a necessary precondition for competent practice.

The Conflict between Basescu and Tariceanu – A Governmental System Viewpoint

Semi-presidential systems of democratic governance risk ending up in a stalemate when it is not clear which of the two „heads” – head of State or head of Government – shall take the lead. The current political situation in Romania features some of the commonly observed characteristics of such an institutional blockade. However, after addressing these formal aspects of political Romania, the author argues for not forgetting to take into account the informal, actor-related factors. The nature of the Romanian political parties and party system seems to hinder the finding of a consensus needed to exit the self-imposed blockade. More specifically, it is the Democratic Party (PD) that is the key to understanding the recent developments. The Government of April the third has yet to prove its efficiency.

Psychotherapy Research and Neurobiology: Challenge, Chance, or Enrichment? Are We Wiser 10 Years Later? (Commentary on "Psychotherapy Research and Neurobiology: Challenge, Chance or Enrichment?"(2003))

Presidential Address of the 2003 SPR annual meeting with commentary from the author, Former President of the SPR, Franz Caspar.

Promoting gender equality in responses to climate change: The case of Kenya

The paper discusses how Kenyan policies and organisations address gender equality in climate change-related responses. The political support for gender issues is reflected in presidential directives on various actions for achieving gender equality such as the establishment of gender desk officers and ensuring 30 per cent female representation in government. Despite the well-advanced gender mainstreaming policy in Kenya, few policies focus on climate change and even fewer on its inter-linkages with gender. At the field level, encrusted traditions, inadequately trained staff, limited financial resources, and limited awareness of the inter-linkages between gender and climate change remain major challenges to promoting gender equality in the work of government organisations. The paper thus proposes measures for addressing these challenges and strengthening gender equality in responses to climate change.

The Marginal Impact of ENGOs in Different Types of Democratic Systems

Conventional wisdom suggests that environmental non-governmental organizations (ENGOs) play a major role in pushing states towards more ambitious environmental policies. However, demonstrating that this presumption is in fact true is rather difficult, because the same system structures of democracies that may create more opportunities for ENGO activities are also, on their own, conducive to better environmental policies. This leaves open the possibility that the additional (marginal) impact of ENGOs on policy making is smaller than presumed. In trying to disentangle these effects, this paper examines the influence of ENGOs contingent on key structural characteristics of democratic systems. We develop the argument that presidential systems with a plurality electoral rule per se tend to provide more environmental public goods, which induces a smaller marginal impact of ENGOs. Conversely, parliamentary systems with a proportional representation electoral rule are likely to provide fewer environmental public goods, which allows for a larger marginal impact of ENGOs. We find robust empirical support for these hypotheses in analyses that focus on the ratification behavior of 75 democracies vis-à-vis 250 international environmental agreements in 1973–2002.

Tribalism as a Minimax-Regret Strategy: Evidence from Voting in the 2007 Kenyan Elections

Although many studies find that voting in Africa approximates an ethnic census in that voting is primarily along ethnic lines, hardly any of the studies have sought to explain ethnic voting following a rational choice framework. Using data of voter opinions from a survey conducted two weeks before the December 2007 Kenyan elections, we find that the expected benefits associated with a win by each of the presidential candidates varied significantly across voters from different ethnic groups. We hypothesize that decision to participate in the elections was influenced by the expected benefits as per the minimax-regret voting model. We test the predictions of this model using data of voter turnout in the December 2007 elections and find that turnout across ethnic groups varied systematically with expected benefits. The results suggest that individuals participated in the elections primarily to avoid the maximum regret should a candidate from another ethnic group win. The results therefore offer credence to the minimax regret model as proposed by Ferejohn and Fiorina (1974) and refute the Downsian expected utility model.

Bioterrorism preparedness at a hospital level in the Southwest Region of the United States -- A systematic review

Since the tragic events of September, 11 2001 the United States bioterrorism and disaster preparedness has made significant progress; yet, numerous research studies of nationwide hospital emergency response have found alarming shortcomings in surge capacity and training level of health care personnel in responding to bioterrorism incidents. The primary goals of this research were to assess hospital preparedness towards the threat of bioterrorist agents in the Southwest Region of the United States and provide recommendations for its improvement. Since little formal research has been published on the hospital preparedness of Oklahoma, Arizona, Texas and New Mexico, this research study specifically focused on the measurable factors affecting the respective states' resources and level of preparedness, such as funding, surge capacity and preparedness certification status.^ Over 300 citations of peer-reviewed articles and 17 Web sites were reviewed, of which 57 reports met inclusion criteria. The results of the systematic review highlighted key gaps in the existing literature and the key targets for future research, as well as identified strengths and weaknesses of the hospital preparedness in the Southwest states compared to the national average. ^ Based on the conducted research, currently, the Southwest states hospital systems are unable fully meet presidential preparedness mandates for emergency and disaster care: the staffed beds to 1,000 population value fluctuated around 1,5 across the states; funding for the hospital preparedness lags behind hospital costs by millions of dollars; and public health-hospital partnership in bioterrorism preparedness is quite weak as evident in lack of joint exercises and training. However, significant steps towards it are being made, including on-going hospital preparedness certification by the Joint Commission of Health Organization. Variations in preparedness levels among states signify that geographic location might determine a hospital level of bioterrorism preparedness as well, tending to favor bigger states such as Texas.^ Suggested recommendations on improvement of the hospital bioterrorism preparedness are consistent with the existing literature and include establishment and maintenance of solid partnerships between hospitals and public health agencies, conduction of joint exercises and drills for the health care personnel and key partners, improved state and federal funding specific to bioterrorism preparedness objectives, as well as on-going training of the clinical personnel on recognition of the bioterrorism agents.^

Ciudadanía femenina en El Salvador : Prudencia Ayala

El relato de la historia mundial, y de la historia de América Latina, ha sido escrito mayoritaria- mente por hombres. Por esa razón, este trabajo da cuenta de la participación y contribución del género masculino, con la excepción de contadas mujeres en el Salvador. Si bien es cierto que muchos campos estuvieron vedados a las mujeres por siglos, éstas no cesaron de defender la igualdad de derechos, constituyéndose en verdaderas protagonistas de nuestra historia en el campo de la política y la ciudadanía femenina. Por ello centramos el foco en el proceso de lucha de las mujeres salvadoreñas para ejercer este derecho, a través de la figura Prudencia Ayala, una mujer indígena y pobre, candidata a la presidencia en 1930.

La disputa por la hegemonía político-ideológica : trabajadores y sindicatos en el discurso presidencial kirchnerista (Argentina, 2007 - 2012)

En este trabajo, inscripto en el campo de análisis de las prácticas discursivas como instancias que participan en la disputa político ideológica siguiendo una lógica propia y específica, me propongo como objetivo explicar cómo es representado el colectivo “trabajadores" y sus formas de participación política en el discurso presidencial kirchnerista, desde qué lugares enunciativos y según qué dispositivos de interpelación. Asimismo, en la medida en que este proceso de significación no es auto-referencial (en realidad, ninguno lo es), sino que se despliega en un diálogo permanente con la práctica discursiva de la dirigencia de la Confederación General del Trabajo, analizo las estrategias de alianza y antagonismo puestas en escena por ambos interlocutores. El material de análisis está formado por los discursos oficiales pronunciados por la presidenta Cristina Fernández de Kirchner desde su asunción en el 2007 hasta mediados del 2012 y por los discursos públicos de Hugo Moyano, Secretario General de la CGT en el mismo lapso, ordenados y sistematizados según procedimientos de categorización previa y cerrada en consonancia con los objetivos de la indagación.

La trastienda de un estreno : las elecciones presidenciales de 1916 en Santa Fe

Es historia conocida el rol crucial que tuvieron los diecinueve electores de la provincia de Santa Fe en la elección del presidente en 1916. Después de algunas marchas y contramarchas, estos hombres pertenecientes al Radicalismo «disidente» santafesino volcaron sus votos en favor de Yrigoyen, otorgándole la mayoría en el colegio electoral necesaria para su consagración como presidente. Sin embargo, conocemos menos de la trama que posibilita este desenlace. Es allí donde este trabajo se detiene: en la coyuntura pautada por las elecciones a gobernador de la provincia de Santa Fe, de febrero de 1916, las presidenciales de abril de ese mismo año, y la reunión del colegio electoral en junio para elegir la fórmula presidencial. Interesa reconstruir el juego político en el distrito provincial santafesino, en esa coyuntura que tiene como nota sobresaliente el «estreno» de la ley Sáenz Peña en la elección de presidente, a través del análisis del comportamiento del Radicalismo, partido que detenta el poder provincial desde 1912, y que en la coyuntura estudiada se encuentra dividido entre «oficialistas» y «disidentes».

Las Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias : Orígenes y desarrollo de una particular conjunción entre marxismo, peronismo y lucha armada [1960-1973]

Desde mediados de la década del cincuenta hasta la última dictadura militar, la Argentina vivió un período de gran conflictividad social y política. Particularmente desde el Cordobazo de 1969, amplios sectores de la clase trabajadora, el campo cultural, la iglesia y el movimiento estudiantil protagonizaron un intenso proceso de politización, dando lugar a un conjunto de movimientos de oposición de diverso orden. Las organizaciones armadas, al desafiar el monopolio estatal de la violencia legítima y establecer diversos lazos con el movimiento de protesta social más amplio, fueron uno de los actores destacados de ese proceso. Entre ellas, las 'Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias' [FAR] condensan varias problemáticas de relevancia en el período: el proceso de identificación con el peronismo de numerosos sectores de izquierda, la reivindicación de la violencia como forma de intervención política y la opción por la lucha armada como modalidad específica de ponerla en práctica. Pese a su importancia, hasta el momento no se había realizado ningún trabajo académico específico sobre esta organización. La presente tesis analiza los orígenes y el desarrollo de las FAR considerando el período que va desde los primeros sesenta, en que comenzaron a perfilarse sus grupos fundadores, hasta las elecciones presidenciales del 11 de marzo de 1973. Desde entonces no sólo cambia notablemente la dinámica política nacional, sino que la realidad de la organización ya está signada por el proceso de fusión con Montoneros, que fue anunciada de modo público en octubre de ese año. El problema de investigación articula dos ejes analíticos. Por un lado, el proceso de identificación de las FAR con el peronismo, cuyos antecedentes se remontan a las sucesivas reinterpretaciones realizadas por sus grupos fundadores sobre el fenómeno. El segundo, con su dinámica de funcionamiento como organización político-militar de actuación nacional y urbana, gestada al calor de los cambios de estrategias que se plantearon aquellos grupos fundadores para lograr el proceso de liberación nacional y social que impulsaban. Ambas líneas de análisis implican, además, adentrarse en los modos en que la organización concibió sus vínculos con sectores más amplios de la sociedad, particularmente con aquellos que buscaba movilizar. Para realizar la tesis se apeló a una estrategia metodológica cualitativa. Se relevaron fuentes escritas [diarios y revistas de alcance nacional, documentos de las FAR y de otras organizaciones con que se vincularon] y se realizaron entrevistas semiestructuradas a ex-miembros de la organización

Nacimiento y evolución de los partidos políticos bonaerenses

El peso político de los hombres de la provincia de Buenos Aires dentro del concierto nacional, ha sido y es de significación. A partir de 1880, pese a las íntimas relaciones que tuvieron los partidos provinciales con sus respectivas conducciones nacionales, los primeros tomaron varias veces, caminos no siempre coincidentes con las segundas. Gran parte de los hombres que habrían de tener principal participación en el manejo político de la provincia y la nación en los últimos años del siglo XIX y primeros treinta del XX, se formaron, como así también su ideología y moral política, en el devenir de las tres presidencias posteriores a Pavón. El presente trabajo pretende estudiar básicamente las ideas y acciones de un grupo de aquellos que integraron el autonomismo y que habrían de descollar en los años posteriores a 1880.

Un aspecto de la oposición radical yrigoyenista al gobernador Crotto, las interpelaciones parlamentarias

José Camilo Crotto llegó al gobierno de la provincia de Buenos Aires por la incuestionable presión que ejerció el presidente Yrigoyen para que así sucediera. Sin embargo, rápidamente el apoyo presidencial habría de convertirse en oposición; este cambio se debió a que Crotto designó, sin consultar al presidente, a allegados suyos, no sólo como ministros sino que también, luego de desplazar a varios yrigoyenistas, nombrados en su momento por el interventor federal Cantilo, a amigos de su confianza. Desde entonces, la ruptura del radicalismo yrigoyenista fue inevitable; los nuevos opositores a Crotto lo atacaron de todas maneras a fin de lograr, cosa que consiguieron en 1921, su renuncia como gobernador. Una de las formas de oposición, fue a través de las interpelaciones, siendo las más importantes aquí estudiadas.

La invención de los clásicos: nacionalismo, filología y políticas culturales en Argentina

Este artículo estudia el lugar que tuvo el discurso filológico en las disputas por la consagración de una versión legítima del canon argentino a comienzos del siglo XX. A través del análisis del modo en que algunos críticos utilizaron argumentos y estrategias de fijación discursiva derivados de la crítica textual para legitimar una versión anti-jacobina y anti-socialista de los orígenes de la nacionalidad en un momento crucial de la vida política del país (la sanción de la Ley Sáenz Peña y las primeras elecciones presidenciales limpias), el trabajo se propone indicar las estrechas relaciones entre legitimación crítica y legitimación política en el establecimiento de un repertorio de clásicos argentinos. El estudio de la forma en que Rojas e Ingenieros editaron las obras de ciertos escritores nacionales en sus respectivas colecciones populares de autores argentinos sirve de ejemplo para demostrar de qué manera los textos del pasado sirvieron para justificar debates políticos y culturales del presente.