Spanish monetary policy: A structural VAR analysis

Some past studies analyzed Spanish monetary policy with the standard VAR. Their problem is that this method obliges researchers to impose a certain extreme form of the short run policy rule on their models. Hence, it does not allow researchers to study the possibility of structural changes in this rule, either. This paper overcomes these problems by using the structural VAR. I find that the rule has always been that of partial accommodation. Prior to 1984, it was quite close to money targeting. After 1984, it became closer to the interest rate targeting, with more emphasis on the exchange rate.

Monetary policy misspecification in VAR models

We examine the effects of extracting monetary policy disturbances with semi-structural and structural VARs, using data generated bya limited participation model under partial accommodative and feedback rules. We find that, in general, misspecification is substantial: short run coefficients often have wrong signs; impulse responses and variance decompositions give misleadingrepresentations of the dynamics. Explanations for the results and suggestions for macroeconomic practice are provided.

Secreted glutamic protease rescues aspartic protease Pep deficiency in Aspergillus fumigatus during growth in acidic protein medium.

In an acidic protein medium Aspergillus fumigatus secretes an aspartic endoprotease (Pep) as well as tripeptidyl-peptidases, a prolyl-peptidase and carboxypeptidases. In addition, LC-MS/MS revealed a novel glutamic protease, AfuGprA, homologous to Aspergillus niger aspergillopepsin II. The importance of AfuGprA in protein digestion was evaluated by deletion of its encoding gene in A. fumigatus wild-type D141 and in a pepΔ mutant. Either A. fumigatus Pep or AfuGprA was shown to be necessary for fungal growth in protein medium at low pH. Exoproteolytic activity is therefore not sufficient for complete protein hydrolysis and fungal growth in a medium containing proteins as the sole nitrogen source. Pep and AfuGprA constitute a pair of endoproteases active at low pH, in analogy to A. fumigatus alkaline protease (Alp) and metalloprotease I (Mep), where at least one of these enzymes is necessary for fungal growth in protein medium at neutral pH. Heterologous expression of AfuGprA in Pichia pastoris showed that the enzyme is synthesized as a preproprotein and that the propeptide is removed through an autoproteolytic reaction at low pH to generate the mature protease. In contrast to A. niger aspergillopepsin II, AfuGprA is a single-chain protein and is structurally more similar to G1 proteases characterized in other non-Aspergillus fungi.

Dynamics of the control of Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti Linnaeus (Diptera, Culicidae) by Bacillus thuringiensis var israelensis, related with temperature, density and concentration of insecticide

The dynamics of the control of Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti Linnaeus, (Diptera, Culicidae) by Bacillus thuringiensis var israelensis has been related with the temperature, density and concentration of the insecticide. A mathematical model for biological control of Aedes aegypti with Bacillus thuringiensis var israelensis (Bti) was constructed by using data from the literature regarding the biology of the vector. The life cycle was described by differential equations. Lethal concentrations (LC50 and LC95) of Bti were determined in the laboratory under different experimental conditions. Temperature, colony, larvae density and bioinsecticide concentration presented marked differences in the analysis of the whole set of variables; although when analyzed individually, only the temperature and concentration showed changes. The simulations indicated an inverse relationship between temperature and mosquito population, nonetheless, faster growth of populations is reached at higher temperatures. As conclusion, the model suggests the use of integrated control strategies for immature and adult mosquitoes in order to achieve a reduction of Aedes aegypti.

Combining multivariate density forecasts using predictive criteria

This paper combines multivariate density forecasts of output growth, inflationand interest rates from a suite of models. An out-of-sample weighting scheme based onthe predictive likelihood as proposed by Eklund and Karlsson (2005) and Andersson andKarlsson (2007) is used to combine the models. Three classes of models are considered: aBayesian vector autoregression (BVAR), a factor-augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR)and a medium-scale dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. Using Australiandata, we find that, at short forecast horizons, the Bayesian VAR model is assignedthe most weight, while at intermediate and longer horizons the factor model is preferred.The DSGE model is assigned little weight at all horizons, a result that can be attributedto the DSGE model producing density forecasts that are very wide when compared withthe actual distribution of observations. While a density forecast evaluation exercise revealslittle formal evidence that the optimally combined densities are superior to those from thebest-performing individual model, or a simple equal-weighting scheme, this may be a resultof the short sample available.

Estimating multi-country VAR models

This paper describes a methodology to estimate the coefficients, to test specification hypothesesand to conduct policy exercises in multi-country VAR models with cross unit interdependencies, unit specific dynamics and time variations in the coefficients. The framework of analysis is Bayesian: a prior flexibly reduces the dimensionality of the model and puts structure on the time variations; MCMC methods are used to obtain posterior distributions; and marginal likelihoods to check the fit of various specifications. Impulse responses and conditional forecasts are obtained with the output of MCMC routine. The transmission of certain shocks across countries is analyzed.

Monetary policy shocks and transmission in Italy: A VAR analysis

This paper provides updated empirical evidence about the real and nominal effects of monetary policy in Italy, by using structural VAR analysis. We discuss different empirical approaches that have been used in order to identify monetary policy exogenous shocks. We argue that the data support the view that the Bank of Italy, at least in the recent past, has been targeting the rate on overnight interbank loans. Therefore, we interpret shocks to the overnight rate as purely exogenous monetary policy shocks and study how different macroeconomic variables react to such shocks.

Forecasting and turning point predictions in a Bayesian panel VAR model

We provide methods for forecasting variables and predicting turning points in panel Bayesian VARs. We specify a flexible model which accounts for both interdependencies in the cross section and time variations in the parameters. Posterior distributions for the parameters are obtained for a particular type of diffuse, for Minnesota-type and for hierarchical priors. Formulas for multistep, multiunit point and average forecasts are provided. An application to the problem of forecasting the growth rate of output and of predicting turning points in the G-7 illustrates the approach. A comparison with alternative forecasting methods is also provided.

Histoplasma capsulatum var. duboisii infection in a patient with AIDS: rapid diagnosis using polymerase chain reaction-sequencing.

We describe an original case of disseminated infection with Histoplasma capsulatum (Hc) var. duboisii in an African patient with AIDS who migrated to Switzerland. The diagnosis of histoplasmosis was suggested using direct examination of tissues and confirmed in 24 h with a panfungal polymerase chain reaction assay. The variety duboisii of Hc was established using DNA sequencing of the polymorphic genomic region OLE. Molecular tools allow diagnosis of histoplasmosis in 24 h, which is drastically shorter than culture procedures.

Efeitos da sazonalidade e do tamanho da planta hospedeira na abundância de galhas de Cecidomyiidae (Diptera) em Piper arboreum (Piperaceae)

Este trabalho teve por objetivo verificar se existem efeitos da sazonalidade e do tamanho da planta hospedeira na ocorrência de galhas de Cecidomyiidae (Diptera) em Piper arboreum (Piperaceae). O estudo foi conduzido mensalmente de setembro/2006 a agosto/2007, em uma área remanescente de Mata Mesófila Semidecídua em Goiânia, Goiás, Brasil. Em cada coleta, 10 indivíduos da planta hospedeira foram escolhidos aleatoriamente, e a altura, o número total de folhas, o número de folhas com galhas e o número de galhas por folhas foram estimados. A abundância de galhas variou significativamente durante o período de estudo, sendo que a maior abundância foi encontrada no início da estação chuvosa. A altura da planta hospedeira e o número de folhas por indivíduo também estiveram positivamente e significativamente relacionados com a abundância de galhas, uma vez que, plantas maiores oferecem maior disponibilidade de recursos e sítios de oviposição. Os resultados do presente estudo apontam que a sazonalidade pode ser tão determinante na abundância de galhas quanto os padrões arquitetônicos da planta hospedeira. As mudanças sazonais podem influenciar diretamente o desenvolvimento da planta hospedeira e assim, alterar a quantidade e a qualidade dos nutrientes oferecidos aos insetos galhadores.

Pattern of attack of a galling insect reveals an unexpected preference-performance linkage on medium-sized resources

Pattern of attack of a galling insect reveals an unexpected preference-performance linkage on medium-sized resources. The Plant Vigor Hypothesis (PVH) predicts oviposition preference and higher offspring performance on longer and fast-growing shoots, and although several studies have tested its predictions, long-term studies concerning the patterns of host selection by galling species are still lacking. The PVH was tested in this study using Bauhinia brevipes (Fabaceae) as the host of a leaf gall midge, Asphondylia microcapillata (Diptera, Cecidomyiidae) during three consecutive years. Shoots were collected from the same 80 plants between 2001 and 2003 and shoot length, number of healthy and galled leaves, gall number, and mortality factors were recorded. Nearly 600 galls were found on the 5,800 shoots collected. Medium-sized shoots supported from 46 to 70% of all galls, with greater gall survival rate in 2002 and 2003. A decrease in parasitism rate coupled with an increase in gall predation lead to a constant similar gall survivorship rate in all years (x = 22.7%). Although gall abundance varied among years (122 in 2001, 114 in 2002 and 359 in 2003) preference for longer shoots was not observed because the percentage of galled shoots and galled leaves were higher on medium shoot length classes in all years. The observed distribution of gall abundance and galled shoots were always greater than the expected distribution on medium shoot length classes. These findings do not support the PVH, and show that A. microcapillata can maximize the female preference and larval performance on medium-sized shoots of B. brevipes.

A medium-scale open economy model of Australia

We estimate an open economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE)model of Australia with a number of shocks, frictions and rigidities, matching alarge number of observable time series. We find that both foreign and domesticshocks are important drivers of the Australian business cycle.We also find that theinitial impact on inflation of an increase in demand for Australian commoditiesis negative, due to an improvement in the real exchange rate, though there is apersistent positive effect on inflation that dominates at longer horizons.

Département du Var : Divisé par les Contributions Indirectes en directions d'Arrondissements Recettes Sédentaires Recettes Ambulantes à cheval Recettes Ambulantes à pied & Recettes Buralistes

Échelle(s) : [ca 1:263 000], Echelle de 40000 Mètres

Lycaenid caterpillars (Lepidoptera, Lycaenidae) eating flowers of Dalea pennellii var. chilensis (Fabaceae) in the northern Chilean Andes

Lycaenid caterpillars (Lepidoptera, Lycaenidae) eating flowers of Dalea pennellii var. chilensis (Fabaceae) in the northern Chilean Andes. The shrub Dalea pennellii var. chilensis (Fabaceae) is reported for the first time as a host plant for three Neotropical Polyommatini (Lepidoptera, Lycaenidae, Polyommatinae): Hemiargus ramon (Dognin, 1887), Leptotes trigemmatus (Butler, 1881) and Nabokovia faga (Dognin, 1895), based on two collections performed in the western slopes of the northern Chilean Andes in two consecutive summers. The relative abundance was always above 90% for N. faga while it was always less than 5% for H. ramon and L. trigemmatus. Furthermore, N. faga was not found on inflorescences of other native Fabaceae examined in the study site. This pattern suggests a close relationship between N. faga and D. pennellii var. chilensis, at least at a local scale.