The seasonal forecast of electricity demand: A hierarchical Bayesian model with climatological weather generator

In this paper we focus on the one year ahead prediction of the electricity peak-demand daily trajectory during the winter season in Central England and Wales. We define a Bayesian hierarchical model for predicting the winter trajectories and present results based on the past observed weather. Thanks to the flexibility of the Bayesian approach, we are able to produce the marginal posterior distributions of all the predictands of interest. This is a fundamental progress with respect to the classical methods. The results are encouraging in both skill and representation of uncertainty. Further extensions are straightforward at least in principle. The main two of those consist in conditioning the weather generator model with respect to additional information like the knowledge of the first part of the winter and/or the seasonal weather forecast. Copyright (C) 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The seasonal forecast of electricity demand: A hierarchical Bayesian model with climatological weather generator

In this paper we focus on the one year ahead prediction of the electricity peak-demand daily trajectory during the winter season in Central England and Wales. We define a Bayesian hierarchical model for predicting the winter trajectories and present results based on the past observed weather. Thanks to the flexibility of the Bayesian approach, we are able to produce the marginal posterior distributions of all the predictands of interest. This is a fundamental progress with respect to the classical methods. The results are encouraging in both skill and representation of uncertainty. Further extensions are straightforward at least in principle. The main two of those consist in conditioning the weather generator model with respect to additional information like the knowledge of the first part of the winter and/or the seasonal weather forecast. Copyright (C) 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Permanent changes in growth and physiology of Bacillus subtilis ToC46 after loss of a recombinant plasmid

The physiology and growth of plasmid-bearing Bacillus subtilis carrying plasmid pPFF1, the non-transformed host, and cells after loss of the plasmid (so-called plasmid-cured cells) were investigated. It was found that, following plasmid loss, cells exhibited phenotypic characteristics different from those of the non-transformed host strains. Compared to plasmid-bearing cells and non-transformed host cells, an approximate 25% increase in the maximum specific growth rate and a more rapid increase in total RNA per unit cell mass were observed in plasmid-cured cells. The total enthalpy associated with irreversible denaturation events was determined in whole cells by differential scanning calorimetry. This showed higher enthalpies for plasmid-cured cells compared with the non-transformed host, which suggests increased ribosome numbers. The result from cellular DNA hybridisation suggests that there was no direct evidence of plasmid integration into the host chromosome. (C) 2004 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Bernoulli free-boundary problems in strip-like domains and a property of permanent waves on water of finite depth

We study weak solutions for a class of free-boundary problems which includes as a special case the classical problem of travelling gravity waves on water of finite depth. We show that such problems are equivalent to problems in fixed domains and study the regularity of their solutions. We also prove that in very general situations the free boundary is necessarily the graph of a function.

Reduced-order modelling of a high-voltage oscillatory impulse generator

The design of high-voltage equipment encompasses the study of oscillatory surges caused by transients such as those produced by switching. By obtaining a model, the response of which reconstructs that observed in the actual system, simulation studies and critical tests can be carried out on the model rather than on the equipment itself. In this paper, methods for the construction of simplified models are described and it is shown how the use of a complex model does not necessarily result in superior response pattern reconstruction.

Genome sequences of the human body louse and its primary endosymbiont provide insights into the permanent parasitic lifestyle

As an obligatory parasite of humans, the body louse (Pediculus humanus humanus) is an important vector for human diseases, including epidemic typhus, relapsing fever, and trench fever. Here, we present genome sequences of the body louse and its primary bacterial endosymbiont Candidatus Riesia pediculicola. The body louse has the smallest known insect genome, spanning 108 Mb. Despite its status as an obligate parasite, it retains a remarkably complete basal insect repertoire of 10,773 protein-coding genes and 57 microRNAs. Representing hemimetabolous insects, the genome of the body louse thus provides a reference for studies of holometabolous insects. Compared with other insect genomes, the body louse genome contains significantly fewer genes associated with environmental sensing and response, including odorant and gustatory receptors and detoxifying enzymes. The unique architecture of the 18 minicircular mitochondrial chromosomes of the body louse may be linked to the loss of the gene encoding the mitochondrial single-stranded DNA binding protein. The genome of the obligatory louse endosymbiont Candidatus Riesia pediculicola encodes less than 600 genes on a short, linear chromosome and a circular plasmid. The plasmid harbors a unique arrangement of genes required for the synthesis of pantothenate, an essential vitamin deficient in the louse diet. The human body louse, its primary endosymbiont, and the bacterial pathogens that it vectors all possess genomes reduced in size compared with their free-living close relatives. Thus, the body louse genome project offers unique information and tools to use in advancing understanding of coevolution among vectors, symbionts, and pathogens.

Induced random fields in the LiHoxY1-xF4 quantum ising magnet in a transverse magnetic field

The LiHoxY1-xF4 magnetic material in a transverse magnetic field Bxx̂ perpendicular to the Ising spin direction has long been used to study tunable quantum phase transitions in a random disordered system. We show that the Bx-induced magnetization along the x̂ direction, combined with the local random dilution-induced destruction of crystalline symmetries, generates, via the predominant dipolar interactions between Ho3+ ions, random fields along the Ising ẑ direction. This identifies LiHoxY1-xF4 in Bx as a new random field Ising system. The random fields explain the rapid decrease of the critical temperature in the diluted ferromagnetic regime and the smearing of the nonlinear susceptibility at the spin-glass transition with increasing Bx and render the Bx-induced quantum criticality in LiHoxY1-xF4 likely inaccessible.