Brazil and Turkey, a comparative analysis of both countries' economic development and institutional design from the Great Depression to the early 21st century

Apos uma década de rápido crescimento econômico na primeira década do século 21, Brasil e Turquia foram considerados duas das economias emergentes mais dinâmicas e promissoras. No entanto, vários sinais de dificuldades econômicas e tensões políticas reapareceram recentemente e simultaneamente nos dois países. Acreditamos que esses sinais e a sua simultaneidade podem ser entendidos melhor com um olhar retrospectivo sobre a história econômica dos dois países, que revela ser surpreendentemente paralela. Numa primeira parte, empreendemos uma comparação abrangente da história econômica brasileira e turca para mostrar as numerosas similaridades entre os desafios de política econômica que os dois países enfrentaram, assim como entre as respostas que eles lhes deram desde a virada da Grande Depressão até a primeira década do século 21. Essas escolhas de política econômica comuns dão forma a uma trajetória de desenvolvimento notavelmente análoga, caracterizada primeiro pela adoção do modelo de industrialização por substituição das importações (ISI) no contexto da recessão mundial dos anos 1930; depois pela intensificação e crise final desse modelo nos anos 1980; e finalmente por duas décadas de estabilização e transição para um modelo econômico mais liberal. Numa segunda parte, o desenvolvimento das instituições econômicas e políticas, assim como da economia política subjacente nos dois países, são analisados comparativamente a fim de prover alguns elementos de explicação do paralelo observado na primeira parte. Sustentamos que o marco institucional estabelecido nos dois países durante esse período também têm varias características fundamentais em comum e contribui a explicar as escolhas de política econômica e as performances econômicas comparáveis, detalhadas na primeira parte. Este estudo aborda elementos do contexto histórico úteis para compreender a situação econômica e política atual nos dois países. Potencialmente também constitui uma tentativa de considerar as economias emergentes numa perspectiva histórica e comparativa mais ampla para entender melhor as suas fraquezas institucionais e adotar um olhar mais equilibrado sobre seu potencial econômico.

Economic recovery from the Argentine great depression : institutions, expectations, and the change of macroeconomic regime

This work explores how Argentina overcame the Great Depression and asks whether active macroeconomic interventions made any contribution to the recovery. In particular, we study Argentine macroeconomic policy as it deviated from gold-standard orthodoxy after the final suspension of convertibility in 1929. As elsewhere, fiscal policy in Argentina was conservative, and had little power to smooth output. Monetary policy became heterodox after 1929. The first and most important stage of institutional change took place with the switch from a metallic monetary regime to a fiduciary regime in 1931; the Caja de Conversión (Conversion Office, a currency board) began rediscounting as a means to sterilize gold outflows and avoid deflationary pressures, thus breaking from orthodox "mIes of the game." However, the actual injections of liquidity were small' and were not enough to fully offset the incipient monetary contractions: the "Keynes" effect was weak or negative. Rather, recovery derived from changes in beliefs and expectations surrounding the shift in the monetary and exchange-rate regime,and the delinking of gold flows and the money base. Agents perceivod a new regime, as shown by the path of consumption, investment, and estimated ex ante real interest rates: the "Mundell" effect was dominant. Notably, this change of regime predated a later, and supposedly more significant, stage of institutional reform, namely the creation of the central bank in 1935. Still, the extent of intervention was weak, and insufficient to fully offset externaI shocks to prices and money. Argentine macropolicy was heterodox in terms of the change of regime, but still conservative in terms of the tentative scope of the measures taken .

Project Pró-Natal: population-based study of perinatal and infant mortality in Natal, Northeast Brazil

RAMOS, Ana Maria de Oliveira et al. Project Pró-Natal: population-based study of perinatal and infant mortality in Natal, Northeast Brazil. Pediatric and Developmental Pathology, v.3, n.1, p.29-35, 2000

Morbimortalidade perinatal associada à infecção clamidiana: uma revisão sistemática

Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte

Depression by inbreeding after four sucessive self-pollination squash generations

The strategy for breeding F-1 hybrid squash is to develop parental lines through self-pollination. However, it increases plant mean homozygosis, which is not the natural genetic state of a cross-pollinated species, and can cause inbreeding depression. The objective of this work was to evaluate this depression with sucessive generations of self-pollination (without selection) in Cucurbita moschata, cv. Piramoita. Populations were obtained from lines with one to four generations of self-pollination (obtained by the SSD method), from the original cv. Piramoita (population SO). Randomized blocks were used with five treatments (different generations of self-pollination -S-0 to S-4), six replicates and five plants per plot. Regression analysis was made by the Wright inbreeding coefficient (F) to measure the homozygosis level effect on vigor loss. There was a linear reduction of mean weight and fruit length, seed production (number and weight) per fruit with the increase of the homozygosis level; however inbreeding did not affect seed quality (weight of 100 seeds and germination).

Inbreeding depression in castor bean (Ricinus communis L.) progenies

O objetivo do trabalho foi investigar a depressão endogâmica (DE) na mamoneira, espécie de reprodução sexuada mista. de uma população derivada da cultivar Guarani, amostraram-se 60 plantas-mãe. de cada uma foram obtidos três tipos de progênies: de autofecundação (AU), de cruzamentos obrigatórios (CR) e de polinização livre (PL). A produtividade de grãos das progênies for avaliada por meio de experimentos em blocos incompletos em dois locais. Houve forte interação de progênies x locais o que levou a obter estimativas dentro de cada local. Verificou-se ampla variação na depressão endogâmica, com médias de 6,7% e 13,4%, comparando-se as progênies AU com as PL. Verificou-se que a população tem alto potencial para selecionar linhagens promissoras. Foi baixa a freqüência de plantas-mãe gerando progênies com alta capacidade geral de combinação e baixa depressão endogâmica, simultaneamente. Seleção recorrente aumentará a ocorrência de genitoras associando essas duas propriedades, necessárias para obtenção de variedades sintéticas superiores.

Comparação entre dois testes de rastreamento do diabetes gestacional e o resultado perinatal

OBJETIVO: comparar dois testes de rastreamento para diabetes e seus resultados com o resultado da gestação. MÉTODOS: no total, 279 pacientes foram submetidas a dois testes de rastreamento do diabetes gestacional - associação glicemia de jejum e fatores de risco (GJ + FR) e o teste de tolerância à glicose simplificado (TTG50g). O rastreamento pela associação GJ + FR caracterizou-se pela dosagem da glicemia de jejum e anamnese para identificação dos fatores de risco na primeira consulta de pré-natal. O TTG50g foi realizado entre a 24ª e a 28ª semana de gestação e caracterizou-se pela dosagem das glicemias plasmáticas em jejum e uma hora após a sobrecarga oral com 50 g de glicose. Os resultados, positivo e negativo, foram relacionados ao resultado da gestação. Foram consideradas variáveis dependentes: via de parto, idade gestacional, peso e índice ponderal ao nascimento, índices de Apgar <7 no 1º e 5º minutos, necessidade de Unidade de Terapia Intensiva (UTI), tempo de permanência hospitalar e óbito neonatal. Empregou-se o teste t de Student, admitindo-se 5% como limite de significância para calcular a diferença de proporção de das médias. RESULTADOS: apenas dois resultados perinatais estudados foram diferenciados pelos testes. O TTG50g alterado esteve associado à maior proporção de cesárea (58,7 versus 34,3%) e a associação GJ + FR positiva, maior taxa de prematuridade (15,4 versus 5,4%). As demais variáveis não foram diferentes nas pacientes com testes de rastreamento positivo e negativo. CONCLUSÕES: Apesar da relação entre a prematuridade e associação GJ + FR positiva e aumento de cesárea e TTG50g alterado, seria falha crítica aceitá-los como definitivos. Entre outras explicações, múltiplos fatores intercorrentes e as características próprias dos testes de rastreamento devem ser consideradas.

Influence of Maternal Hyperglycemia on IL-10 and TNF-alpha Production: The Relationship with Perinatal Outcomes

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Maternal and perinatal outcomes of first pregnancy after chemotherapy for gestational trophoblastic neoplasia in Brazilian women

Objective. To evaluate maternal and perinatal outcomes of first pregnancy after chemotherapy for gestational trophoblastic neoplasia (GTN) in Brazilian patients.Methods. This study included 252 subsequent pregnancies after chemotherapy for GTN treated between 1960-2005. Correlations of maternal and perinatal outcomes with chemotherapy regimen (single or multiagent) and the time interval between chemotherapy completion and first subsequent pregnancy were investigated.Results. There was a significant increase in adverse maternal outcomes in women who conceived <6 months than 6-12 months (76.2% and 19.6%; p<0.0001; OR=13.12; CI 95%=3.87-44.40) and >12 months (76.2% and 21.7%; P<0.0001; OR=11.56; CI 95%=3.98-33.55) after chemotherapy. Spontaneous abortion frequency was higher <6 months (71.4%) than 6-12 months (17.6%; p<0.0001: OR=11.66; CI 95%=3.55-38.22) and >12 months (9.4%; p<0.0001: OR=23.97: CI 95%=8.21-69.91) after chemotherapy. There was no difference in adverse perinatal outcomes (stillbirth, fetal malformation, and preterm birth) related to the interval after chemotherapy and Subsequent pregnancy. The overall occurrence of adverse maternal and perinatal outcomes did not significantly differ between patients on single or multiagent regimens.Conclusion. Adverse maternal outcomes and spontaneous abortion were more frequent among patients who conceived within 6 months of chemotherapy completion. In these cases, careful prenatal monitoring and hCG level measurement 6 weeks after the completion of any new pregnancy are recommended. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Mild gestational hyperglycaemia as a risk factor for metabolic syndrome in pregnancy and adverse perinatal outcomes

Objective The aims of this study were to evaluate the prevalence of metabolic syndrome (MS) in a cohort of pregnant women with a wide range of glucose tolerance, pre-pregnancy risk factors for MS during pregnancy and the effects of MS in the occurrence of adverse perinatal outcomes.Research Design and Methods One hundred and thirty six women with positive screening for gestational diabetes (GDM) were classified by two diagnostic methods: glycaemic profile and 100 g oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) as normoglycaemic, mild gestational hyperglycaemic, GDM, and overt GDM. Markers of insulin resistance were measured between 24-28 and 36th week of gestation, and 6 weeks after delivery.Results The prevalence of MS was 0; 20.0; 23.5 and 36.4% in normoglycaemic, mild hyperglycaemic, GDM and overt GDM groups, respectively. Previous history of GDM with or without insulin use, body mass index (BMI) >= 25, hypertension, family history of diabetes in first-degree relatives, non-Caucasian ethnicity, history of prematurity and polyhydramnios were statistically significant pre-pregnancy predictors for MS in the index pregnancy, that by its turn increased the occurrence of adverse perinatal outcomes (p = 0.01).Conclusions The prevalence of MS increases with the worsening of glucose tolerance and is an independent predictor of adverse perinatal outcomes; impaired glycaemic profile identifies pregnancies with important metabolic abnormalities that are linked to the occurrence of adverse perinatal outcomes even in the presence of a normal OGTT, in patients that are not currently classified as having GDM. Copyright (C) 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The safe motherhood referral system to reduce cesarean sections and perinatal mortality - a cross-sectional study [1995-2006]

Background: In 2000, the eight Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) set targets for reducing child mortality and improving maternal health by 2015.Objective: To evaluate the results of a new education and referral system for antenatal/intrapartum care as a strategy to reduce the rates of Cesarean sections (C-sections) and maternal/perinatal mortality.Methods: Design: Cross-sectional study. Setting: Department of Gynecology and Obstetrics, Botucatu Medical School, São Paulo State University/UNESP, Brazil. Population: 27,387 delivering women and 27,827 offspring. Data collection: maternal and perinatal data between 1995 and 2006 at the major level III and level II hospitals in Botucatu, Brazil following initiation of a safe motherhood education and referral system. Main outcome measures: Yearly rates of C-sections, maternal (/100,000 LB) and perinatal (/1000 births) mortality rates at both hospitals. Data analysis: Simple linear regression models were adjusted to estimate the referral system's annual effects on the total number of deliveries, C-section and perinatal mortality ratios in the two hospitals. The linear regression were assessed by residual analysis (Shapiro-Wilk test) and the influence of possible conflicting observations was evaluated by a diagnostic test (Leverage), with p < 0.05.Results: Over the time period evaluated, the overall C-section rate was 37.3%, there were 30 maternal deaths (maternal mortality ratio = 109.5/100,000 LB) and 660 perinatal deaths (perinatal mortality rate = 23.7/1000 births). The C-section rate decreased from 46.5% to 23.4% at the level II hospital while remaining unchanged at the level III hospital. The perinatal mortality rate decreased from 9.71 to 1.66/1000 births and from 60.8 to 39.6/1000 births at the level II and level III hospital, respectively. Maternal mortality ratios were 16.3/100,000 LB and 185.1/100,000 LB at the level II and level III hospitals. There was a shift from direct to indirect causes of maternal mortality.Conclusions: This safe motherhood referral system was a good strategy in reducing perinatal mortality and direct causes of maternal mortality and decreasing the overall rate of C-sections.

A multidisciplinary program of preparation for childbirth and motherhood: maternal anxiety and perinatal outcomes

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)