Permanent trading impacts and bond yields

We analyze four years of transaction data for euro-area sovereign bonds traded on the MTS electronic platforms. In order to measure the informational content of trading activity, we estimate the permanent price response to trades. We find not only strong evidence of information asymmetry in sovereign bond markets, but we also show the relevance of information asymmetry in explaining the cross-sectional variations of bond yields across a wide range of bond maturities and countries. Our results confirm that trades of more recently issued bonds and longer maturity bonds have a greater permanent effect on prices. We compare the price impact of trades for bonds across different maturity categories and find that trades of French and German bonds have the highest long-term price impact in the short maturity class whereas trades of German bonds have the highest permanent price impacts in the long maturity class. More importantly, we study the cross-section of bond yields and find that after controlling for conventional factors, investors demand higher yields for bonds with larger permanent trading impact. Interestingly, when investors face increased market uncertainty, they require even higher compensation for information asymmetry.

Real estate mutual funds: herding, momentum-trading and performance

This study jointly examines herding, momentum trading and performance in real estate mutual funds (REMFs). We do this using trading and performance data for 159 REMFs across the period 1998–2008. In support of the view that Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) stocks are relatively more transparent, we find that stock herding by REMFs is lower in REIT stocks than other stock. Herding behavior in our data reveals a tendency for managers to sell winners, reflective of the “disposition effect.” We find low overall levels of REMF momentum trading, but further evidence of the disposition effect when momentum trading is segregated into buy–sell dimensions. We test the robustness of our analysis using style analysis, and by reference to the level of fund dividend distribution. Our results for this are consistent with our conjecture about the role of transparency in herding, but they provide no new insights in relation to the momentum-trading dimensions of our analysis. Summarizing what are complex interrelationships, we find that neither herding nor momentum trading are demonstrably superior investment strategies for REMFs.

Responding to the EU Emissions Trading Scheme: an empirical analysis of corporate carbon disclosure strategy

The purpose of this paper is to explore how companies that hold carbon trading accounts under European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) respond to the climate change by using disclosures on carbon emissions as a means to generate legitimacy compared to others. The study is based on disclosures made in annual reports and stand-alone sustainability reports of UK listed companies from 2001- 2012. The study uses content analysis to capture both the quality and volume of the carbon disclosures. The results show that there is a significant increase in both the quality and volume of the carbon disclosures after the launch of EU ETS. Companies with carbon trading accounts provide greater detailed disclosures as compared to the others without an account. We also find that company size is positively correlated with the disclosures while the association with the industry produces an inconclusive result.

Do autocratic states trade less?

Does the political regime of a country influence its involvement in international trade? A theoretical model that predicts that autocracies trade less than democracies is developed, and the predictions of the model are tested empirically using a panel of more than 130 countries for 1962–2000. In contrast to the existing literature, data on the regime type of individual countries are used rather than information about the congruence of the regime type of pairs of trading countries. In line with the model, autocracies are found to import substantially less than democracies, even after controlling for official trade policies. This finding is very stable and does not depend on a particular setup or estimation technique.

Futures trading, spot price volatility and market efficiency: evidence from European real estate securities futures

In 2007 futures contracts were introduced based upon the listed real estate market in Europe. Following their launch they have received increasing attention from property investors, however, few studies have considered the impact their introduction has had. This study considers two key elements. Firstly, a traditional Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model, the approach of Bessembinder & Seguin (1992) and the Gray’s (1996) Markov-switching-GARCH model are used to examine the impact of futures trading on the European real estate securities market. The results show that futures trading did not destabilize the underlying listed market. Importantly, the results also reveal that the introduction of a futures market has improved the speed and quality of information flowing to the spot market. Secondly, we assess the hedging effectiveness of the contracts using two alternative strategies (naïve and Ordinary Least Squares models). The empirical results also show that the contracts are effective hedging instruments, leading to a reduction in risk of 64 %.

The trading profitability of forecasts of the gilt–equity yield ratio

Research has highlighted the usefulness of the Gilt–Equity Yield Ratio (GEYR) as a predictor of UK stock returns. This paper extends recent studies by endogenising the threshold at which the GEYR switches from being low to being high or vice versa, thus improving the arbitrary nature of the determination of the threshold employed in the extant literature. It is observed that a decision rule for investing in equities or bonds, based on the forecasts from a regime switching model, yields higher average returns with lower variability than a static portfolio containing any combinations of equities and bonds. A closer inspection of the results reveals that the model has power to forecast when investors should steer clear of equities, although the trading profits generated are insufficient to outweigh the associated transaction costs.

A trading strategy based on the lead–lag relationship between the spot index and futures contract for the FTSE 100

This paper examines the lead–lag relationship between the FTSE 100 index and index futures price employing a number of time series models. Using 10-min observations from June 1996–1997, it is found that lagged changes in the futures price can help to predict changes in the spot price. The best forecasting model is of the error correction type, allowing for the theoretical difference between spot and futures prices according to the cost of carry relationship. This predictive ability is in turn utilised to derive a trading strategy which is tested under real-world conditions to search for systematic profitable trading opportunities. It is revealed that although the model forecasts produce significantly higher returns than a passive benchmark, the model was unable to outperform the benchmark after allowing for transaction costs.

Can profitable trading strategies be derived from investment best-sellers?

A glance along the finance shelves at any bookshop reveals a large number of books that seek to show readers how to ‘make a million’ or ‘beat the market’ with allegedly highly profitable equity trading strategies. This paper investigates whether useful trading strategies can be derived from popular books of investment strategy, with What Works on Wall Street by James P. O'Shaughnessy used as an example. Specifically, we test whether this strategy would have produced a similarly spectacular performance in the UK context as was demonstrated by the author for the US market. As part of our investigation, we highlight a general methodology for determining whether the observed superior performance of a trading rule could be attributed in part or in entirety to data mining. Overall, we find that the O'Shaughnessy rule performs reasonably well in the UK equity market, yielding higher returns than the FTSE All-Share Index, but lower returns than an equally weighted benchmark

Trading death: the implications of annuity replication for the annuity puzzle, arbitrage, speculation and portfolios

Annuities are perceived as being illiquid financial instruments, and this has limited their attractiveness to consumers and their inclusion in financial models. However, short positions in annuities can be replicated using life insurance and debt, permitting long positions in annuities to be offset, or short annuity positions to be created. The implications of this result for the annuity puzzle, arbitrage between the annuity and life insurance markets, and speculation on expected longevity are investigated. It is argued that annuity replication could help reduce the annuity puzzle, improve the price efficiency of annuity markets and promote the inclusion of annuities in household portfolios.

The human-resource management practice of retail branding: an ethnography within Oxfam trading division

Purpose – While the charity retail literature emphasizes the richness of human resource practices among charity retailers, it rarely makes the link between these practices and their interest for establishing charity retailers' brands. Simultaneously, while the retail branding literature increasingly emphasizes the central role of human resource practices for retail branding, it rarely explains how retailers should conduct such practices. The purpose of this study is to test the recent model proposed by Burt and Sparks in 2002 (the “fifth generation of retail branding”) which proposes that a retail brand depends on the alignment between a retailer's substance (vision and culture) and its perceived image by customers. Design/methodology/approach – The research is based on an ethnographic study conducted within the Oxfam Trading Division, GB from October to December 2002. Findings – The study supports the Burt and Spark's model and makes explicit the practice of human resource for branding. The study demonstrates that it was the alignment between the vision of Oxfam's top management and its new customer‐oriented culture, two elements of its core substance mediated to customers by store employees, which has enabled an improved customers' perception of the brand. The study also seeks to elaborate upon the Burt and Spark's model by specifying an ascending feedback loop starting from customers' perception of Oxfam brand and enabling the creation of a suitable culture and vision again mediated by store employees. Research limitations/implications – New research should explore whether and how retailers create synergies between human resource and marketing functions to sustain their brand image. Practical implications – If the adoption of business practices by charity retailers is often discussed, this study highlights that commercial retailers could usefully transfer human resource best practices from leading charity retailers to develop their retail brand. Originality/value – The paper is of value to commercial retailers.

Selecting object pairs for action: is the active object always first?

Perception is linked to action via two routes: a direct route based on affordance information in the environment and an indirect route based on semantic knowledge about objects. The present study explored the factors modulating the recruitment of the two routes, in particular which factors affecting the selection of paired objects. In Experiment 1, we presented real objects among semantically related or unrelated distracters. Participants had to select two objects that can interact. The presence of distracters affected selection times, but not the semantic relations of the objects with the distracters. Furthermore, participants first selected the active object (e.g. teaspoon) with their right hand, followed by the passive object (e.g. mug), often with their left hand. In Experiment 2, we presented pictures of the same objects with no hand grip, congruent or incongruent hand grip. Participants had to decide whether the two objects can interact. Action decisions were faster when the presentation of the active object preceded the presentation of the passive object, and when the grip was congruent. Interestingly, participants were slower when the objects were semantically but not functionally related; this effect increased with congruently gripped objects. Our data showed that action decisions in the presence of strong affordance cues (real objects, pictures of congruently gripped objects) relied on sensory-motor representation, supporting the direct route from perception-to-action that bypasses semantic knowledge. However, in the case of weak affordance cues (pictures), semantic information interfered with action decisions, indicating that semantic knowledge impacts action decisions. The data support the dual-route account from perception-to-action.

The role of index trading in price formation in the grains and oilseeds markets

We use both Granger-causality and instrumental variables (IV) methods to examine the impact of index fund positions on price returns for the main US grains and oilseed futures markets. Our analysis supports earlier conclusions that Granger-causal impacts are generally not discernible. However, market microstructure theory suggests trading impacts should be instantaneous. IV-based tests for contemporaneous causality provide stronger evidence of price impact. We find even stronger evidence that changes in index positions can help predict future changes in aggregate commodity price indices. This result suggests that changes in index investment are in part driven by information which predicts commodity price changes over the coming months.

Carbon trading for phosphorus gain: the balance between rhizosphere carboxylates and arbuscular mycorrhizal symbiosis in plant phosphorus acquisition

Two key plant adaptations for phosphorus (P) acquisition are carboxylate exudation into the rhizosphere and mycorrhizal symbioses. These target different soil P resources, presumably with different plant carbon costs. We examined the effect of inoculation with arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) on amount of rhizosphere carboxylates and plant P uptake for 10 species of low-P adapted Kennedia grown for 23 weeks in low-P sand. Inoculation decreased carboxylates in some species (up to 50%), decreased plant dry weight (21%) and increased plant P content (23%). There was a positive logarithmic relationship between plant P content and the amount of rhizosphere citric acid for inoculated and uninoculated plants. Causality was indicated by experiments using sand where little citric acid was lost from the soil solution over 2 h and citric acid at low concentrations desorbed P into the soil solution. Senesced leaf P concentration was often low and P-resorption efficiencies reached >90%. In conclusion, we propose that mycorrhizally mediated resource partitioning occurred because inoculation reduced rhizosphere carboxylates, but increased plant P uptake. Hence, presumably, the proportion of plant P acquired from strongly sorbed sources decreased with inoculation, while the proportion from labile inorganic P increased. Implications for plant fitness under field conditions now require investigation.