Impact of implementing an exclusively dedicated respiratory isolation room in a Brazilian tertiary emergency department

Background Occupational risk due to airborne disease challenges healthcare institutions. Environmental measures are effective but their cost-effectiveness is still debatable and most of the capacity planning is based on occupational rates. Better indices to plan and evaluate capacity are needed. Goal To evaluate the impact of installing an exclusively dedicated respiratory isolation room (EDRIR) in a tertiary emergency department (ED) determined by a time-to-reach-facility method. Methods A group of patients in need of respiratory isolation were first identified-group I (2004; 29 patients; 44.1 +/- 3.4 years) and the occupational rate and time intervals (arrival to diagnosis, diagnosis to respiratory isolation indication and indication to effective isolation) were determined and it was estimated that adding an EDRIR would have a significant impact over the time to isolation. After implementing the EDRIR, a second group of patients was gathered in the same period of the year-group II (2007; 50 patients; 43.4 +/- 1.8 years) and demographic and functional parameters were recorded to evaluate time to isolation. Cox proportional hazard models adjusted for age, gender and inhospital respiratory isolation room availability were obtained. Results Implementing an EDRIR decreased the time from arrival to indication of respiratory isolation (27.5 +/- 9.3 X 3.7 +/- 2.0; p = 0.0180) and from indication to effective respiratory isolation (13.3 +/- 3.0 X 2.94 +/- 1.06; p = 0.003) but not the respiratory isolation duration and total hospital stay. The impact on crude isolation rates was very significant (8.9 X 75.4/100.000 patients; p < 0.001). The HR for effective respiratory isolation was 26.8 (95% CI 7.42 to 96.9) p < 0.001 greater for 2007. Conclusion Implementing an EDRIR in a tertiary ED significantly reduced the time to respiratory isolation.

Squamous Cell Carcinoma of the Tongue and Floor of the Mouth: Analysis of Survival Rate and Independent Prognostic Factors in the Amazon Region

Oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC) accounts for more than 95% of all malignant neoplasms in the oral cavity. Although several studies have shown the epidemiology of this cancer in Brazil, there do not seem to be any studies that describe the prognostic factors related to OSCC in the Amazon region. Therefore, the aim of this study was to determine the survival rate and prognostic significance of different factors in patients from this region affected by OSCC. Data from 85 patients with histologically confirmed squamous cell carcinoma of the tongue and floor of the mouth identified from the Ofir Loyola Hospital archives were collected and analyzed using univariate (log-rank test) and multivariate (Cox proportional hazard model) tests. The overall 5-year survival rate was found to be 27%. Univariate analysis showed that the 5-year survival rate was significantly higher for younger (<= 45 y) female patients, patients with T1-2 tumors and clinically clear neck nodes (N0), patients with early stage cancers (AJCC stage I-II), and patients treated with surgical procedures. However, multivariate analysis showed that the 5-year survival rate was significantly higher only in the younger patients and those who underwent surgical treatment. The age of the patient at the moment of diagnosis and treatment with surgical procedures were the only independent prognostic factors that affected the 5-year survival rate of the patients in this region.

Fatigue and damage accumulation of veneer porcelain pressed on Y-TZP

Objectives: This study compared the reliability and fracture patterns of zirconia cores veneered with pressable porcelain submitted to either axial or off-axis sliding contact fatigue. Methods: Forty-two Y-TZP plates (12 mm x 12 mm x 0.5 mm) veneered with pressable porcelain (12 mm x 12 mm x 1.2 mm) and adhesively luted to water aged composite resin blocks (12 mm x 12 mm x 4 mm) were stored in water at least 7 days prior to testing. Profiles for step-stress fatigue (ratio 3:2:1) were determined from single load to fracture tests (n = 3). Fatigue loading was delivered on specimen either on axial (n = 18) or off-axis 30 degrees angulation (n = 18) to simulate posterior tooth cusp inclination creating a 0.7 mm slide. Single load and fatigue tests utilized a 6.25 mm diameter WC indenter. Specimens were inspected by means of polarized-light microscope and SEM. Use level probability Weibull curves were plotted with 2-sided 90% confidence bounds (CB) and reliability for missions of 50,000 cycles at 200 N (90% CB) were calculated. Results: The calculated Weibull Beta was 3.34 and 2.47 for axial and off-axis groups, respectively, indicating that fatigue accelerated failure in both loading modes. The reliability data for a mission of 50,000 cycles at 200 N load with 90% CB indicates no difference between loading groups. Deep penetrating cone cracks reaching the core-veneer interface were observed in both groups. Partial cones due to the sliding component were observed along with the cone cracking for the off-axis group. No Y-TZP core fractures were observed. Conclusions: Reliability was not significantly different between axial and off-axis mouth-motion fatigued pressed over Y-TZP cores, but incorporation of sliding resulted in more aggressive damage on the veneer. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A model to forecast financial failure, in non financial galician SMES

We are concerned with providing more empirical evidence on forecast failure, developing forecast models, and examining the impact of events such as audit reports. A joint consideration of classic financial ratios and relevant external indicators leads us to build a basic prediction model focused in non-financial Galician SMEs. Explanatory variables are relevant financial indicators from the viewpoint of the financial logic and financial failure theory. The paper explores three mathematical models: discriminant analysis, Logit, and linear multivariate regression. We conclude that, even though they both offer high explanatory and predictive abilities, Logit and MDA models should be used and interpreted jointly.

Persisting problems related to race and ethnicity in public health and epidemiology research

A recent and comprehensive review of the use of race and ethnicity in research that address health disparities in epidemiology and public health is provided. First it is described the theoretical basis upon which race and ethnicity differ drawing from previous work in anthropology, social science and public health. Second, it is presented a review of 280 articles published in high impacts factor journals in regards to public health and epidemiology from 2009-2011. An analytical grid enabled the examination of conceptual, theoretical and methodological questions related to the use of both concepts. The majority of articles reviewed were grounded in a theoretical framework and provided interpretations from various models. However, key problems identified include a) a failure from researchers to differentiate between the concepts of race and ethnicity; b) an inappropriate use of racial categories to ascribe ethnicity; c) a lack of transparency in the methods used to assess both concepts; and d) failure to address limits associated with the construction of racial or ethnic taxonomies and their use. In conclusion, future studies examining health disparities should clearly establish the distinction between race and ethnicity, develop theoretically driven research and address specific questions about the relationships between race, ethnicity and health. One argue that one way to think about ethnicity, race and health is to dichotomize research into two sets of questions about the relationship between human diversity and health.

Theory and phenomenology of two-higgs-doublet models

We discuss theoretical and phenomenological aspects of two-Higgs-doublet extensions of the Standard Model. In general, these extensions have scalar mediated flavour changing neutral currents which are strongly constrained by experiment. Various strategies are discussed to control these flavour changing scalar currents and their phenomenological consequences are analysed. In particular, scenarios with natural flavour conservation are investigated, including the so-called type I and type II models as well as lepton-specific and inert models. Type III models are then discussed, where scalar flavour changing neutral currents are present at tree level, but are suppressed by either a specific ansatz for the Yukawa couplings or by the introduction of family symmetries leading to a natural suppression mechanism. We also consider the phenomenology of charged scalars in these models. Next we turn to the role of symmetries in the scalar sector. We discuss the six symmetry-constrained scalar potentials and their extension into the fermion sector. The vacuum structure of the scalar potential is analysed, including a study of the vacuum stability conditions on the potential and the renormalization-group improvement of these conditions is also presented. The stability of the tree level minimum of the scalar potential in connection with electric charge conservation and its behaviour under CP is analysed. The question of CP violation is addressed in detail, including the cases of explicit CP violation and spontaneous CP violation. We present a detailed study of weak basis invariants which are odd under CP. These invariants allow for the possibility of studying the CP properties of any two-Higgs-doublet model in an arbitrary Higgs basis. A careful study of spontaneous CP violation is presented, including an analysis of the conditions which have to be satisfied in order for a vacuum to violate CP. We present minimal models of CP violation where the vacuum phase is sufficient to generate a complex CKM matrix, which is at present a requirement for any realistic model of spontaneous CP violation.

Non-linear time series models

The last three decades have seen quite dramatic changes the way we modeled time dependent data. Linear processes have been in the center stage in modeling time series. As far as the second order properties are concerned, the theory and the methodology are very adequate.However, there are more and more evidences that linear models are not sufficiently flexible and rich enough for modeling purposes and that failure to account for non-linearities can be very misleading and have undesired consequences.

Modelling HIV/AIDS length of stay in Portugal

Tese apresentada como requisito parcial para obtenção do grau de Doutor em Estatística e Gestão de Informação pelo Instituto Superior de Estatística e Gestão de Informação da Universidade Nova de Lisboa

Economic analysis in health care regulation : three essays

ABSTRACT - It is the purpose of the present thesis to emphasize, through a series of examples, the need and value of appropriate pre-analysis of the impact of health care regulation. Specifically, the thesis presents three papers on the theme of regulation in different aspects of health care provision and financing. The first two consist of economic analyses of the impact of health care regulation and the third comprises the creation of an instrument for supporting economic analysis of health care regulation, namely in the field of evaluation of health care programs. The first paper develops a model of health plan competition and pricing in order to understand the dynamics of health plan entry and exit in the presence of switching costs and alternative health premium payment systems. We build an explicit model of death spirals, in which profitmaximizing competing health plans find it optimal to adopt a pattern of increasing relative prices culminating in health plan exit. We find the steady-state numerical solution for the price sequence and the plan’s optimal length of life through simulation and do some comparative statics. This allows us to show that using risk adjusted premiums and imposing price floors are effective at reducing death spirals and switching costs, while having employees pay a fixed share of the premium enhances death spirals and increases switching costs. Price regulation of pharmaceuticals is one of the cost control measures adopted by the Portuguese government, as in many European countries. When such regulation decreases the products’ real price over time, it may create an incentive for product turnover. Using panel data for the period of 1997 through 2003 on drug packages sold in Portuguese pharmacies, the second paper addresses the question of whether price control policies create an incentive for product withdrawal. Our work builds the product survival literature by accounting for unobservable product characteristics and heterogeneity among consumers when constructing quality, price control and competition indexes. These indexes are then used as covariates in a Cox proportional hazard model. We find that, indeed, price control measures increase the probability of exit, and that such effect is not verified in OTC market where no such price regulation measures exist. We also find quality to have a significant positive impact on product survival. In the third paper, we develop a microsimulation discrete events model (MSDEM) for costeffectiveness analysis of Human Immunodeficiency Virus treatment, simulating individual paths from antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation to death. Four driving forces determine the course of events: CD4+ cell count, viral load resistance and adherence. A novel feature of the model with respect to the previous MSDEMs is that distributions of time to event depend on individuals’ characteristics and past history. Time to event was modeled using parametric survival analysis. Events modeled include: viral suppression, regimen switch due virological failure, regimen switch due to other reasons, resistance development, hospitalization, AIDS events, and death. Disease progression is structured according to therapy lines and the model is parameterized with cohort Portuguese observational data. An application of the model is presented comparing the cost-effectiveness ART initiation with two nucleoside analogue reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTI) plus one non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor(NNRTI) to two NRTI plus boosted protease inhibitor (PI/r) in HIV- 1 infected individuals. We find 2NRTI+NNRTI to be a dominant strategy. Results predicted by the model reproduce those of the data used for parameterization and are in line with those published in the literature.

The influence of menopausal status on bone turnover and disease control in breast cancer patients with metastatic bone disease treated with chemotherapy plus zoledronic acid : an exploratory retrospective cohort study

RESUMO: Introdução: Uma meta-análise recente demonstrou que uso adjuvante de ácido zoledrónico (AZ) em mulheres pós-menopáusicas com cancro da mama precoce (CM) conduz a redução do risco de morte por CM em 17%. Investigámos o efeito do estado hormonal (pré [PrM] vs pós-menopausa tardia [PoM]) na remodelação óssea e controlo de doença em mulheres com CM e metástases ósseas (MO) tratadas com AZ e quimioterapia (QT). Métodos: Neste estudo de coorte retrospetivo, colhemos variáveis clinico-patológicas e quantificámos o telopéptido N-terminal (NTX) urinário e marcadores tumorais (MT) séricos em mulheres com CM e MO tratadas com QT e AZ. As doentes foram divididas em PrM (<45 anos) e PoM (>60 anos). Endpoints do estudo: variação do NTX, CA15.3 e CEA nos meses 3, 6 e 9, tempo até falência de QT de primeira-linha e sobrevivência. Quando apropriado foram usados os testes de Wilcoxon rank-sum, modelo de efeitos lineares mistos, teste log-rank e modelo de Cox. Resultados: Quarenta doentes foram elegíveis para análise (8 PrM e 32 PoM). Depois da introdução de AZ e QT, os níveis de NTX e MT caíram no coorte global. O perfil de resposta não diferiu entre grupos no mês 3 ou em tempos posteriores (valor-p para interação tempo-estado hormonal no mês 3=0.957). Ademais, o perfil de resposta dos MT também não diferiu entre grupos. O tempo mediano até falência de primeira-linha de QT em PrM e PoM foi de 15.2 e 17.4 meses, respetivamente. Não foi identificada diferença significativa entre grupos, quer em análise univariada quer após controlo para envolvimento visceral (p=0.399 e 0.469, respetivamente). Igualmente, não houve diferenças em termos de sobrevivência. Conclusões: Neste coorte, não foram identificadas diferenças no controlo de NTX ou MT em função do estado menopausico. Igualmente, não foi identificada diferença no tempo até falência de primeira-linha de CT ou sobrevivência.----------- ABSTRACT: Background: A recent meta-analysis showed that the adjuvant use of zoledronic acid (ZA) in postmenopausal women with early breast cancer (BC) leads to a reduction in the risk of breast cancer death by 17%. We investigated the effect of the hormonal status (pre [PrM] vs late post menopause [PoM]) on bone turnover and disease control among women with BC and boné metastases (BM) treated with ZA and chemotherapy (CT). Methods: In this retrospective cohort study, we collected clinicopathologic variables, urinary Nterminal telopeptide (NTX) and serum tumor marker levels from women with BC and BM treated with CT and ZA. Patients were divided in PrM (<45 years) and PoM (>60 years). Study endpoints were NTX, CA15.3 and CEA variation at 3, 6 and 9 months, and time to first-line CT failure and survival. We performed multilevel mixed-effects linear regression models to assess the variation of repeated measures and cox regression models for time to event outcomes. Results: Forty patients were eligible for analysis (8 PrM and 32 PoM). After introduction of ZA and CT, NTX and tumor markers declined in the overall cohort. Response profile was similar between menopausal groups at month 3 and at later time points (p-value for time-hormonal status interaction at month 3=0.957). Furthermore, tumor markers response profile was also equal between groups. Median time to first-line CT failure in PrM and PoM women was 15.2 and 17.4 months, respectively. No significant difference between groups was found, either using a univariate analysis or after controlling for visceral disease involvement (p=0.399 and 0.469, respectively). Likewise, no differences in survival were found. Conclusions: In this cohort, no differences were found in terms of NTX or tumor markers control according to menopausal status. Similarly, no difference in time to first-line CT failure or survival was found.

Biomarkers in Cardiology – Part 1 – In Heart Failure and Specific Cardiomyopathies

Cardiovascular diseases are the leading causes of mortality and morbidity in Brazil. The primary and secondary preventions of those diseases are a priority for the health system and require multiple approaches to increase their effectiveness. Biomarkers are tools used to more accurately identify high-risk individuals, to speed the diagnosis, and to aid in treatment and prognosis determination. This review aims to highlight the importance of biomarkers in clinical cardiology practice, and to raise relevant points of their use and the promises for the coming years. This document was divided into two parts, and this first one discusses the use of biomarkers in specific cardiomyopathies and heart failure.

Failure rates modelling for heterogenous populations

Mixture of distributions, decreasing failure rate, increasing failure rate, proportional hazards model, accelerated life model, asymptotic behavior of mixture failure rate

Heart Failure with Preserved Left Ventricular Ejection Fraction in Patients with Acute Myocardial Infarction

AbstractBackground:The prevalence and clinical outcomes of heart failure with preserved left ventricular ejection fraction after acute myocardial infarction have not been well elucidated.Objective:To analyze the prevalence of heart failure with preserved left ventricular ejection fraction in acute myocardial infarction and its association with mortality.Methods:Patients with acute myocardial infarction (n = 1,474) were prospectively included. Patients without heart failure (Killip score = 1), with heart failure with preserved left ventricular ejection fraction (Killip score > 1 and left ventricle ejection fraction ≥ 50%), and with systolic dysfunction (Killip score > 1 and left ventricle ejection fraction < 50%) on admission were compared. The association between systolic dysfunction with preserved left ventricular ejection fraction and in-hospital mortality was tested in adjusted models.Results:Among the patients included, 1,256 (85.2%) were admitted without heart failure (72% men, 67 ± 15 years), 78 (5.3%) with heart failure with preserved left ventricular ejection fraction (59% men, 76 ± 14 years), and 140 (9.5%) with systolic dysfunction (69% men, 76 ± 14 years), with mortality rates of 4.3%, 17.9%, and 27.1%, respectively (p < 0.001). Logistic regression (adjusted for sex, age, troponin, diabetes, and body mass index) demonstrated that heart failure with preserved left ventricular ejection fraction (OR 2.91; 95% CI 1.35–6.27; p = 0.006) and systolic dysfunction (OR 5.38; 95% CI 3.10 to 9.32; p < 0.001) were associated with in-hospital mortality.Conclusion:One-third of patients with acute myocardial infarction admitted with heart failure had preserved left ventricular ejection fraction. Although this subgroup exhibited more favorable outcomes than those with systolic dysfunction, this condition presented a three-fold higher risk of death than the group without heart failure. Patients with acute myocardial infarction and heart failure with preserved left ventricular ejection fraction encounter elevated short-term risk and require special attention and monitoring during hospitalization.

Galectin-3: A Link between Myocardial and Arterial Stiffening in Patients with Acute Decompensated Heart Failure?

Abstract Background: Heart failure is accompanied by abnormalities in ventricular-vascular interaction due to increased myocardial and arterial stiffness. Galectin-3 is a recently discovered biomarker that plays an important role in myocardial and vascular fibrosis and heart failure progression. Objectives: The aim of this study was to determine whether galectin-3 is correlated with arterial stiffening markers and impaired ventricular-arterial coupling in decompensated heart failure patients. Methods: A total of 79 inpatients with acute decompensated heart failure were evaluated. Serum galectin-3 was determined at baseline, and during admission, transthoracic echocardiography and measurements of vascular indices by Doppler ultrasonography were performed. Results: Elevated pulse wave velocity and low arterial carotid distensibility are associated with heart failure in patients with preserved ejection fraction (p = 0.04, p = 0.009). Pulse wave velocity, carotid distensibility and Young’s modulus did not correlate with serum galectin-3 levels. Conversely, raised galectin-3 levels correlated with an increased ventricular-arterial coupling ratio (Ea/Elv) p = 0.047, OR = 1.9, 95% CI (1.0‑3.6). Increased galectin-3 levels were associated with lower rates of left ventricular pressure rise in early systole (dp/dt) (p=0.018) and raised pulmonary artery pressure (p = 0.046). High galectin-3 levels (p = 0.038, HR = 3.07) and arterial pulmonary pressure (p = 0.007, HR = 1.06) were found to be independent risk factors for all-cause mortality and readmissions. Conclusions: This study showed no significant correlation between serum galectin-3 levels and arterial stiffening markers. Instead, high galectin-3 levels predicted impaired ventricular-arterial coupling. Galectin-3 may be predictive of raised pulmonary artery pressures. Elevated galectin-3 levels correlate with severe systolic dysfunction and together with pulmonary hypertension are independent markers of outcome.

Forward Looking and Myopic Regional Computable General Equilibrium Models. How Significant is the Distinction?

We present a stylized intertemporal forward-looking model able that accommodates key regional economic features, an area where the literature is not well developed. The main difference, from the standard applications, is the role of saving and its implication for the balance of payments. Though maintaining dynamic forward-looking behaviour for agents, the rate of private saving is exogenously determined and so no neoclassical financial adjustment is needed. Also, we focus on the similarities and the differences between myopic and forward-looking models, highlighting the divergences among the main adjustment equations and the resulting simulation outcomes.