Estimating loss to follow-up in HIV-infected patients on antiretroviral therapy: the effect of the competing risk of death in Zambia and Switzerland

Background Loss to follow-up (LTFU) is common in antiretroviral therapy (ART) programmes. Mortality is a competing risk (CR) for LTFU; however, it is often overlooked in cohort analyses. We examined how the CR of death affected LTFU estimates in Zambia and Switzerland. Methods and Findings HIV-infected patients aged ≥18 years who started ART 2004–2008 in observational cohorts in Zambia and Switzerland were included. We compared standard Kaplan-Meier curves with CR cumulative incidence. We calculated hazard ratios for LTFU across CD4 cell count strata using cause-specific Cox models, or Fine and Gray subdistribution models, adjusting for age, gender, body mass index and clinical stage. 89,339 patients from Zambia and 1,860 patients from Switzerland were included. 12,237 patients (13.7%) in Zambia and 129 patients (6.9%) in Switzerland were LTFU and 8,498 (9.5%) and 29 patients (1.6%), respectively, died. In Zambia, the probability of LTFU was overestimated in Kaplan-Meier curves: estimates at 3.5 years were 29.3% for patients starting ART with CD4 cells <100 cells/µl and 15.4% among patients starting with ≥350 cells/µL. The estimates from CR cumulative incidence were 22.9% and 13.6%, respectively. Little difference was found between naïve and CR analyses in Switzerland since only few patients died. The results from Cox and Fine and Gray models were similar: in Zambia the risk of loss to follow-up and death increased with decreasing CD4 counts at the start of ART, whereas in Switzerland there was a trend in the opposite direction, with patients with higher CD4 cell counts more likely to be lost to follow-up. Conclusions In ART programmes in low-income settings the competing risk of death can substantially bias standard analyses of LTFU. The CD4 cell count and other prognostic factors may be differentially associated with LTFU in low-income and high-income settings.

Autologous peripheral blood stem cell transplantation for acute myeloid leukemia

We report the results of a prospective, randomized phase 3 trial evaluating autologous peripheral blood stem cell transplantation (ASCT) versus intensive consolidation chemotherapy in newly diagnosed AML patients in complete remission (CR1). Patients with AML (16-60 years) in CR1 after 2 cycles of intensive chemotherapy and not eligible for allogeneic SCT were randomized between intensive chemotherapy with etoposide and mitoxantrone or ASCT ater high-dose cyclophosphamide and busulfan. Of patients randomized (chemotherapy, n = 259; ASCT, n = 258), more than 90% received their assigned treatment. The 2 groups were comparable with regard to prognostic factors. The ASCT group showed a markedly reduced relapse rate (58% vs 70%, P = .02) and better relapse-free survival at 5 years (38% vs 29%, P = .065, hazard ratio = 0.82; 95% confidence interval, 0.66-1.1) with nonrelapse mortality of 4% versus 1% in the chemotherapy arm (P = .02). Overall survival was similar (44% vs 41% at 5 years, P = .86) because of more opportunities for salvage with second-line chemotherapy and stem cell transplantation in patients relapsing on the chemotherapy arm. This large study shows a relapse advantage for ASCT as postremission therapy but similar survival because more relapsing patients on the chemotherapy arm were salvaged with a late transplantation for relapse. This trial is registered at www.trialregister.nl as #NTR230 and #NTR291.

Social cognition as a mediator variable between neurocognition and functional outcome in schizophrenia: empirical review and new results by structural equation modeling

Cognitive impairments are currently regarded as important determinants of functional domains and are promising treatment goals in schizophrenia. Nevertheless, the exact nature of the interdependent relationship between neurocognition and social cognition as well as the relative contribution of each of these factors to adequate functioning remains unclear. The purpose of this article is to systematically review the findings and methodology of studies that have investigated social cognition as a mediator variable between neurocognitive performance and functional outcome in schizophrenia. Moreover, we carried out a study to evaluate this mediation hypothesis by the means of structural equation modeling in a large sample of 148 schizophrenia patients. The review comprised 15 studies. All but one study provided evidence for the mediating role of social cognition both in cross-sectional and in longitudinal designs. Other variables like motivation and social competence additionally mediated the relationship between social cognition and functional outcome. The mean effect size of the indirect effect was 0.20. However, social cognitive domains were differentially effective mediators. On average, 25% of the variance in functional outcome could be explained in the mediation model. The results of our own statistical analysis are in line with these conclusions: Social cognition mediated a significant indirect relationship between neurocognition and functional outcome. These results suggest that research should focus on differential mediation pathways. Future studies should also consider the interaction with other prognostic factors, additional mediators, and moderators in order to increase the predictive power and to target those factors relevant for optimizing therapy effects.

Tumour budding: a promising parameter in colorectal cancer

In 2011, the Tumour Node Metastasis (TNM) staging system still remains the gold standard for stratifying colorectal cancer (CRC) patients into prognostic subgroups, and is considered a solid basis for treatment management. Nevertheless, there is still a challenge with regard to therapeutic strategy; stage II patients are not typically selected for postoperative adjuvant chemotherapy, although some stage II patients have a comparable outcome to stage III patients who, themselves do receive such treatment. Consequently, there has been an inundation of 'prognostic biomarker' studies aiming to improve the prognostic stratification power of the TNM staging system. Most proposed biomarkers are not implemented because of lack of reproducibility, validation and standardisation. This problem can be partially resolved by following the REMARK guidelines. In search of novel prognostic factors for patients with CRC, one might glance at a table in the book entitled 'Prognostic Factors in Cancer' published by the International Union against Cancer (UICC) in 2006, in which TNM stage, L and V classifications are considered 'essential' prognostic factors, whereas tumour grade, perineural invasion, tumour budding and tumour-border configuration among others are proposed as 'additional' prognostic factors. Histopathology reports normally include the 'essential' features and are accompanied by tumour grade, histological subtype and information on perineural invasion, but interestingly, the tumour-border configuration (i.e., growth pattern) and especially tumour budding are rarely reported. Although scoring systems such as the 'BRE' in breast and 'Gleason' in prostate cancer are solidly based on histomorphological features and used in daily practice, no such additional scoring system to complement TNM staging is available for CRC. Regardless of differences in study design and methods for tumour-budding assessment, the prognostic power of tumour budding has been confirmed by dozens of study groups worldwide, suggesting that tumour budding may be a valuable candidate for inclusion into a future prognostic scoring system for CRC. This mini-review therefore attempts to present a short and concise overview on tumour budding, including morphological, molecular and prognostic aspects underlining its inter-disciplinary relevance.

[Influence of chronic, structural changes of the muscle-tendon unit on the indication and technique of rotator cuff reconstruction]

Rotator cuff lesions are common and the incidence increases with age. After tendon rupture of the rotator cuff, the muscle-tendon unit retracts, which is accompanied by muscle fatty infiltration, atrophy, and interstitial fibrosis of the musculature, thus, fundamentally changing the muscle architecture. These changes are important prognostic factors for the operative rotator cuff reconstruction outcome. Selection of the correct time point for reconstruction as well as the optimal mechanical fixation technique are decisive for successful attachment at the tendon-to-bone insertion site. Thus, knowledge of the pathophysiological processes plays an important role. The goal of this article is to establish a relationship between currently existing evidence with respect to the preoperatively existing changes of the muscle-tendon unit and the choice of the time for the operation and the operative technique.

European outbreak of atypical myopathy in the autumn 2009

BACKGROUND: Atypical myopathy is an acute, severe rhabdomyolysis occurring in grazing horses. In the beginning of October 2009, a new outbreak occurred in several European countries. Geographic, demographic and clinical data of the reported cases in the month October 2009 are described. KEY FINDINGS: The survival rate in this outbreak was 25%. The most frequently observed clinical signs were congested mucous membranes, dyspnea, tachycardia, depression, weakness, stiffness, recumbency, trembling, sweating, and myoglobinuria. Nonsurvivors were significantly more likely to be recumbent than survivors. Prognostic factors, symptomatic treatment, and preventive measures are discussed. SIGNIFICANCE: Differences were encountered during the described outbreak of atypical myopathy in October 2009 compared with previous outbreaks reported. Equine practitioners should be aware that previous epidemiological studies have shown that after a high prevalence in the autumn, new cases are likely to occur in the following spring.

Tumor thrombus of inferior vena cava in patients with renal cell carcinoma - clinical and oncological outcome of 50 patients after surgery

Background To evaluate oncological and clinical outcome in patients with renal cell carcinoma (RCC) and tumor thrombus involving inferior vena cava (IVC) treated with nephrectomy and thrombectomy. Methods We identified 50 patients with a median age of 65 years, who underwent radical surgical treatment for RCC and tumor thrombus of the IVC between 1997 and 2010. The charts were reviewed for pathological and surgical parameters, as well as complications and oncological outcome. Results The median follow-up was 26 months. In 21 patients (42%) distant metastases were already present at the time of surgery. All patients underwent radical nephrectomy, thrombectomy and lymph node dissection through a flank (15 patients/30%), thoracoabdominal (14 patients/28%) or midline abdominal approach (21 patients/42%), depending upon surgeon preference and upon the characteristics of tumor and associated thrombus. Extracorporal circulation with cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB) was performed in 10 patients (20%) with supradiaphragmal thrombus of IVC. Cancer-specific survival for the whole cohort at 5 years was 33.1%. Survival for the patients without distant metastasis at 5 years was 50.7%, whereas survival rate in the metastatic group at 5 years was 7.4%. Median survival of patients with metastatic disease was 16.4 months. On multivariate analysis lymph node invasion, distant metastasis and grading were independent prognostic factors. There was no statistically significant influence of level of the tumor thrombus on survival rate. Indeed, patients with supradiaphragmal tumor thrombus (n = 10) even had a better outcome (overall survival at 5 years of 58.33%) than the entire cohort. Conclusions An aggressive surgical approach is the most effective therapeutic option in patients with RCC and any level of tumor thrombus and offers a reasonable longterm survival. Due to good clinical and oncological outcome we prefer the use of CPB with extracorporal circulation in patients with supradiaphragmal tumor thrombus. Cytoreductive surgery appears to be beneficial for patients with metastatic disease, especially when consecutive therapy is performed. Although sample size of our study cohort is limited consistent with some other studies lymph node invasion, distant metastasis and grading seem to have prognostic value.

The influence of the surgeon's and the hospital's caseload on survival and local recurrence after colorectal cancer surgery

BACKGROUND: Past studies have identified surgeon- and institution- related characteristics as prognostic factors in colorectal cancer surgery. The present work assesses the influence of the surgeon's and the hospital's caseload on long-term results of colorectal cancer surgery. METHODS: The data on 2706 patients from 2, randomized, colorectal cancer trials (Swiss Group for Clinical Cancer Research [SAKK] 40/81, SAKK 40/87) investigating adjuvant intraportal and systemic chemotherapy and 1 concurrent registration study (SAKK 40/88) were reviewed. A first analysis included 1809 eligible, nonmetastatic patients from all 3 studies. A subsequent subgroup analysis included 915 eligible patients from both randomized trials. Overall survival (OS), disease-free survival (DFS), and local recurrence (LR) were analyzed in multivariate models taking into account the possible effect of clustering. The main potential covariates were surgeon's annual caseload (>5 operations/year vs < or =5 operations/year), hospital's annual caseload (>26 operations/year vs < or =26 operations/year), tumor site, T stage, and nodal status. RESULTS: Primary analysis of all 3 studies combined found a high surgeon's caseload to be positively associated with OS (P = .025) and marginally with DFS (P = .058). Separate analysis for each trial, however, showed that a high surgeon's caseload was beneficial for outcome in both randomized trials but not in the registration study. A subgroup analysis of 915 patients with 376 rectal and 539 colonic primaries from both randomized trials, therefore, was performed. Neither age, gender, year of operation, adjuvant chemotherapy (intraportal vs systemic vs operation alone), hospital academic status (university vs non-university), training status of the surgeon (certified surgeon vs surgeon-in-training), nor inclusion in 1 of the 2 randomized trials (SAKK 40/81 vs SAKK 40/87) was a significant predictor of outcome. However, both high surgeon's and high hospital's annual caseloads were independent, beneficial prognostic factors for OS (P = .0003, P = .044) and DFS (P = .0008, P = .020), and marginally significant factors for LR (P = .057, P = .055). CONCLUSIONS: High surgeon's and hospital's annual caseloads are strong, independent prognostic factors for extending overall and disease-free survival and reducing the rate of local recurrence in 2 randomized colorectal cancer trials.

The role of the number of uninvolved lymph nodes in predicting locoregional recurrence in breast cancer

PURPOSE: To identify groups of early breast cancer patients with substantial risk (10-year risk > 20%) for locoregional failure (LRF) who might benefit from postmastectomy radiotherapy (RT). PATIENTS AND METHODS: Prognostic factors for LRF were evaluated among 6,660 patients (2,588 node-negative patients, 4,072 node-positive patients) in International Breast Cancer Study Group Trials I to IX treated with chemotherapy and/or endocrine therapy, and observed for a median of 14 years. In total, 1,251 LRFs were detected. All patients were treated with mastectomy without RT. RESULTS: No group with 10-year LRF risk exceeding 20% was found among patients with node-negative disease. Among patients with node-positive breast cancer, increasing numbers of uninvolved nodes were significantly associated with decreased risk of LRF, even after adjustment for other prognostic factors. The highest quartile of uninvolved nodes was compared with the lowest quartile. Among premenopausal patients, LRF risk was decreased by 35% (P = .0010); among postmenopausal patients, LRF risk was decreased by 46% (P < .0001). The 10-year cumulative incidence of LRF was 20% among patients with one to three involved lymph nodes and fewer than 10 uninvolved nodes. Age younger than 40 years and vessel invasion were also associated significantly with increased risk. Among patients with node-positive disease, overall survival was significantly greater in those with higher numbers of uninvolved nodes examined (P < .0001). CONCLUSION: Patients with one to three involved nodes and a low number of uninvolved nodes, vessel invasion, or young age have an increased risk of LRF and may be candidates for a similar treatment as those with at least four lymph node metastases.

Predictors of early relapse in postmenopausal women with hormone receptor-positive breast cancer in the BIG 1-98 trial

BACKGROUND: Aromatase inhibitors are considered standard adjuvant endocrine treatment of postmenopausal women with hormone receptor-positive breast cancer, but it remains uncertain whether aromatase inhibitors should be given upfront or sequentially with tamoxifen. Awaiting results from ongoing randomized trials, we examined prognostic factors of an early relapse among patients in the BIG 1-98 trial to aid in treatment choices. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Analyses included all 7707 eligible patients treated on BIG 1-98. The median follow-up was 2 years, and the primary end point was breast cancer relapse. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to identify prognostic factors. RESULTS: Two hundred and eighty-five patients (3.7%) had an early relapse (3.1% on letrozole, 4.4% on tamoxifen). Predictive factors for early relapse were node positivity (P < 0.001), absence of both receptors being positive (P < 0.001), high tumor grade (P < 0.001), HER-2 overexpression/amplification (P < 0.001), large tumor size (P = 0.001), treatment with tamoxifen (P = 0.002), and vascular invasion (P = 0.02). There were no significant interactions between treatment and the covariates, though letrozole appeared to provide a greater than average reduction in the risk of early relapse in patients with many involved lymph nodes, large tumors, and vascular invasion present. CONCLUSION: Upfront letrozole resulted in significantly fewer early relapses than tamoxifen, even after adjusting for significant prognostic factors.

A review identifies and classifies reasons for ordering diagnostic tests

OBJECTIVE: To consider the reasons and context for test ordering by doctors when faced with an undiagnosed complaint in primary or secondary care. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: We reviewed any study of any design that discussed factors that may affect a doctor's decision to order a test. Articles were located through searches of electronic databases, authors' files on diagnostic methodology, and reference lists of relevant studies. We extracted data on: study design, type of analysis, setting, topic area, and any factors reported to influence test ordering. RESULTS: We included 37 studies. We carried out a thematic analysis to synthesize data. Five key groupings arose from this process: diagnostic factors, therapeutic and prognostic factors, patient-related factors, doctor-related factors, and policy and organization-related factors. To illustrate how the various factors identified may influence test ordering we considered the symptom low back pain and the diagnosis multiple sclerosis as examples. CONCLUSIONS: A wide variety of factors influence a doctor's decision to order a test. These are integral to understanding diagnosis in clinical practice. Traditional diagnostic accuracy studies should be supplemented with research into the broader context in which doctors perform their work.

Anti-myelin antibodies in clinically isolated syndrome indicate the risk of multiple sclerosis in a Swiss cohort

OBJECTIVES: In patients with a clinically isolated syndrome (CIS), the time interval to convert to clinically definite multiple sclerosis (CDMS) is highly variable. Individual and geographical prognostic factors remain to be determined. Whether anti-myelin antibodies may predict the risk of conversion to CDMS in Swiss CIS patients of the canton Berne was the subject of the study. METHODS: Anti-myelin oligodendrocyte glycoprotein and anti-myelin basic protein antibodies were determined prospectively in patients admitted to our department. RESULTS: After a mean follow-up of 12 months, none of nine antibody-negative, but 22 of 30 antibody-positive patients had progressed to CDMS. Beta-Interferon treatment delayed the time to conversion from a mean of 7.4 to 10.9 months. CONCLUSIONS: In a Swiss cohort, antibody-negative CIS patients have a favorable short-term prognosis, and antibody-positive patients benefit from early treatment.

Ethnic differences in macular pigment density and distribution

PURPOSE: Many epidemiologic studies suggest a number of risk factors that may be associated with progression of age-related maculopathy (ARM). In this study, the authors investigate ethnic differences in macular pigment density (MPD) and macular pigment (MP) distribution. METHODS: Inclusion criteria were healthy subjects, aged 35 to 49 years, visual acuity >or=20/20, race ethnicity white non-Hispanic (WNH) or African. All subjects underwent the following examinations: best-corrected ETDRS visual acuity (VA), measurements of MPD, and spatial distribution of MP with a modified confocal scanning laser ophthalmoscope according to a standard protocol. MPD maps were calculated from autofluorescence images recorded at 488 nm and 514 nm. Central macular pigment density (MPDc) was quantified from MPD maps within 0.5 degrees around the center of the fovea. RESULTS: In total, 118 healthy subjects (61 women, 57 men) aged 35 to 49 years (mean, 42.5 +/- 3.6 years) were recruited for the study. Sixty-seven healthy subjects were WNH and 51 were African. Visual acuity ranged from 20/20 to 20/16 in the study eye. Significant differences were found among MPDc between the group of WNH (MPDc, 0.36 +/- 0.13 density units [DU]; P < 0.0001) and African subjects (MPDc, 0.59 +/- 0.14 DU). A parafoveal ring was significantly more frequent in African subjects than in WNH subjects (86% [African] vs. 68% [WNH]; P < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates that ethnicity plays a role in MPD values and in MP distribution. The association of different distribution patterns and their relevance as possible prognostic factors for diseases leading to oxidative retinal damage requires further studies.

Extracapsular tumor spread and the risk of local, axillary and supraclavicular recurrence in node-positive, premenopausal patients with breast cancer

BACKGROUND: Extracapsular tumor spread (ECS) has been identified as a possible risk factor for breast cancer recurrence, but controversy exists regarding its role in decision making for regional radiotherapy. This study evaluates ECS as a predictor of local, axillary, and supraclavicular recurrence. PATIENTS AND METHODS: International Breast Cancer Study Group Trial VI accrued 1475 eligible pre- and perimenopausal women with node-positive breast cancer who were randomly assigned to receive three to nine courses of classical combination chemotherapy with cyclophosphamide, methotrexate, and fluorouracil. ECS status was determined retrospectively in 933 patients based on review of pathology reports. Cumulative incidence and hazard ratios (HRs) were estimated using methods for competing risks analysis. Adjustment factors included treatment group and baseline patient and tumor characteristics. The median follow-up was 14 years. RESULTS: In univariable analysis, ECS was significantly associated with supraclavicular recurrence (HR = 1.96; 95% confidence interval 1.23-3.13; P = 0.005). HRs for local and axillary recurrence were 1.38 (P = 0.06) and 1.81 (P = 0.11), respectively. Following adjustment for number of lymph node metastases and other baseline prognostic factors, ECS was not significantly associated with any of the three recurrence types studied. CONCLUSIONS: Our results indicate that the decision for additional regional radiotherapy should not be based solely on the presence of ECS.

Stem cell-related "self-renewal" signature and high epidermal growth factor receptor expression associated with resistance to concomitant chemoradiotherapy in glioblastoma

PURPOSE: Glioblastomas are notorious for resistance to therapy, which has been attributed to DNA-repair proficiency, a multitude of deregulated molecular pathways, and, more recently, to the particular biologic behavior of tumor stem-like cells. Here, we aimed to identify molecular profiles specific for treatment resistance to the current standard of care of concomitant chemoradiotherapy with the alkylating agent temozolomide. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Gene expression profiles of 80 glioblastomas were interrogated for associations with resistance to therapy. Patients were treated within clinical trials testing the addition of concomitant and adjuvant temozolomide to radiotherapy. RESULTS: An expression signature dominated by HOX genes, which comprises Prominin-1 (CD133), emerged as a predictor for poor survival in patients treated with concomitant chemoradiotherapy (n = 42; hazard ratio = 2.69; 95% CI, 1.38 to 5.26; P = .004). This association could be validated in an independent data set. Provocatively, the HOX cluster was reminiscent of a "self-renewal" signature (P = .008; Gene Set Enrichment Analysis) recently characterized in a mouse leukemia model. The HOX signature and EGFR expression were independent prognostic factors in multivariate analysis, adjusted for the O-6-methylguanine-DNA methyltransferase (MGMT) methylation status, a known predictive factor for benefit from temozolomide, and age. Better outcome was associated with gene clusters characterizing features of tumor-host interaction including tumor vascularization and cell adhesion, and innate immune response. CONCLUSION: This study provides first clinical evidence for the implication of a "glioma stem cell" or "self-renewal" phenotype in treatment resistance of glioblastoma. Biologic mechanisms identified here to be relevant for resistance will guide future targeted therapies and respective marker development for individualized treatment and patient selection.