Comparative analysis between statistical and artificial intelligence models in business failure prediction

A growing number of predicting corporate failure models has emerged since 60s. Economic and social consequences of business failure can be dramatic, thus it is not surprise that the issue has been of growing interest in academic research as well as in business context. The main purpose of this study is to compare the predictive ability of five developed models based on three statistical techniques (Discriminant Analysis, Logit and Probit) and two models based on Artificial Intelligence (Neural Networks and Rough Sets). The five models were employed to a dataset of 420 non-bankrupt firms and 125 bankrupt firms belonging to the textile and clothing industry, over the period 2003–09. Results show that all the models performed well, with an overall correct classification level higher than 90%, and a type II error always less than 2%. The type I error increases as we move away from the year prior to failure. Our models contribute to the discussion of corporate financial distress causes. Moreover it can be used to assist decisions of creditors, investors and auditors. Additionally, this research can be of great contribution to devisers of national economic policies that aim to reduce industrial unemployment.

Comparative Analysis between Statistical and Artificial Intelligence Models in Business Failure Prediction

A growing number of predicting corporate failure models has emerged since 60s. Economic and social consequences of business failure can be dramatic, thus it is not surprise that the issue has been of growing interest in academic research as well as in business context. The main purpose of this study is to compare the predictive ability of five developed models based on three statistical techniques (Discriminant Analysis, Logit and Probit) and two models based on Artificial Intelligence (Neural Networks and Rough Sets). The five models were employed to a dataset of 420 non-bankrupt firms and 125 bankrupt firms belonging to the textile and clothing industry, over the period 2003–09. Results show that all the models performed well, with an overall correct classification level higher than 90%, and a type II error always less than 2%. The type I error increases as we move away from the year prior to failure. Our models contribute to the discussion of corporate financial distress causes. Moreover it can be used to assist decisions of creditors, investors and auditors. Additionally, this research can be of great contribution to devisers of national economic policies that aim to reduce industrial unemployment.

Relationships between NPM, the use of PM practices and the organizational performance: empirical evidence from government agencies

Purpose – this paper has two main purposes: (1)explore if government agencies more oriented to NPM postulates are more willing to use PM practices and to improve their performance; and (2) investigate whether the fit between the use of PM practices and the organizationa performance is dependent upon from the capacity of agencies to adapt its structures to changes introduced by NPM reforms. Design/methodology/approach - this paper is based on the survey method and provides empirical evidence from Portuguese government agencies.Findings (mandatory) - Our findings suggest that government agencies that made structural arrangements under the NPM reforms are more willing to use PM practices and will perform better than other agencies. In addition, this paper show that therelationship between the use of PM practices and the organizational performance is dependent upon from the agencies capacity to adopt new structural arrangements under the NPM reforms.Practical implications – this paper has three main contributions: (1) contribute to knowledge about the relationship between the introduction of NPM changes in the use of PM practices; (2) contribute to clarify whether agencies more oriented to NPM postulates are improving performance; and (3) help to clarify the way the organizations should adapt their structures for to be more effective in the use of PM practices. Originality/value - The quantitative empirical research, based on the unique survey applied to Portuguese government agencies on this field, allow us to add to prior research mainly based on case studies and oriented to local governments (Budding, 2004).

COGNITIVE LEGITIMACY, RESOURCE ACCESS, AND ORGANIZATIONAL OUTCOMES

Previous research has demonstrated the importance of developing legitimacy initiatives in order to create new business opportunities, satisfy shareholders, and obtain access to resources. Within this framework, cognitive legitimacy plays a key role. Through a case study of six Spanish public universities, the authors measure the relationship between cognitive legitimacy, access to resources, and organizational results. The results support the assertion that organizations with more cognitive legitimacy have greater access to resources and improved their results. This study contributes with muchneeded empirical research on cognitive legitimacy and demonstrates its usefulness as an explanative factor of organizational success.

ABOUT PSYCHOLOGICAL VARIABLES IN APPLICATION SCORING MODELS

The purpose of this study is to investigate the contribution of psychological variables and scales suggested by Economic Psychology in predicting individuals’ default. Therefore, a sample of 555 individuals completed a self-completion questionnaire, which was composed of psychological variables and scales. By adopting the methodology of the logistic regression, the following psychological and behavioral characteristics were found associated with the group of individuals in default: a) negative dimensions related to money (suffering, inequality and conflict); b) high scores on the self-efficacy scale, probably indicating a greater degree of optimism and over-confidence; c) buyers classified as compulsive; d) individuals who consider it necessary to give gifts to children and friends on special dates, even though many people consider this a luxury; e) problems of self-control identified by individuals who drink an average of more than four glasses of alcoholic beverage a day.

A blockmodel study of managerial hierarchies, verbal networks, and organizational culture in four hospitals

This study demonstrates and applies a social network methodology for studying the dynamics of hierarchies in organizations. Social network (blockmodel) analysis of verbal networks in four hospitals contrasted hierarchical and structurally equivalent partitions of the sociomatrices of frequent ties and perceptions of organizational culture. It was found that the verbal networks in these organizations follow a center periphery pattern rather than a hierarchical logic and that perceptions of culture vary more by verbal network than by formal hierarchy. The perceptions of culture of central groups in one organization are much like those of peripheral groups in another. In all four hospitals, structurally equivalent social networks are more important in predicting subcultures than are hierarchical groupings and hierarchy has a limited impact on the development of verbal networks. These findings suggest the value of an amoeba rather than a pyramid metaphor in interpreting the cultures and relational structures of organizations.

A Feedback Learning and Mental Models Perspective on Strategic Decision Making

This study aims to be a contribution to a theoretical model that explains the effectiveness of the learning and decision-making processes by means of a feedback and mental models perspective. With appropriate mental models, managers should be able to improve their capacity to deal with dynamically complex contexts, in order to achieve long-term success. We present a set of hypotheses about the influence of feedback information and systems thinking facilitation on mental models and management performance. We explore, under controlled conditions, the role of mental models in terms of structure and behaviour. A test based on a simulation experiment with a system dynamics model was performed. Three out of the four hypotheses were confirmed. Causal diagramming positively influences mental model structure similarity, mental model structure similarity positively influences mental model behaviour similarity, and mental model behaviour similarity positively influences the quality of the decision.

A Feedback Learning and Mental Models Perspective on Strategic Decision Making

This study aims to be a contribution to a theoretical model that explains the effectiveness of the learning and decision-making processes by means of a feedback and mental models perspective. With appropriate mental models, managers should be able to improve their capacity to deal with dynamically complex contexts, in order to achieve long-term success. We present a set of hypotheses about the influence of feedback information and systems thinking facilitation on mental models and management performance. We explore, under controlled conditions, the role of mental models in terms of structure and behaviour. A test based on a simulation experiment with a system dynamics model was performed. Three out of the four hypotheses were confirmed. Causal diagramming positively influences mental model structure similarity, mental model structure similarity positively influences mental model behaviour similarity, and mental model behaviour similarity positively influences the quality of the decision

A gestão do conhecimento na administração pública municipal em Curitiba com a aplicação do método OKA - Organizational Knowledge Assessment

O presente artigo objetiva analisar como a gestão do conhecimento se manifesta na administração pública da Prefeitura Municipal de Curitiba; para tanto, buscou-se a aplicação do método Organizational Knowledge Assessment (OKA), criado pelo Banco Mundial e organizado pela Escola Nacional de Administração Pública (Enap). No que tange aos procedimentos metodológicos, utilizou-se o estudo de caso como instrumento de pesquisa e coleta dos dados. Como resultado, identificaram-se o processo de avaliação organizacional, indicando as similaridades e distinções do desenvolvimento do método de cada área-fim, e a importância de implantar sistematicamente um processo de avaliação aliado ao planejamento da organização pública com estratégias para disseminar, compartilhar e aplicar o conhecimento produzido.

CP properties of symmetry-constrained two-Higgs-doublet models

The two-Higgs-doublet model can be constrained by imposing Higgs-family symmetries and/or generalized CP symmetries. It is known that there are only six independent classes of such symmetry-constrained models. We study the CP properties of all cases in the bilinear formalism. An exact symmetry implies CP conservation. We show that soft breaking of the symmetry can lead to spontaneous CP violation (CPV) in three of the classes.

Renormalization-group constraints on Yukawa alignment in multi-Higgs-doublet models

We write down the renormalization-group equations for the Yukawa-coupling matrices in a general multi-Higgs-doublet model. We then assume that the matrices of the Yukawa couplings of the various Higgs doublets to right-handed fermions of fixed quantum numbers are all proportional to each other. We demonstrate that, in the case of the two-Higgs-doublet model, this proportionality is preserved by the renormalization-group running only in the cases of the standard type-I, II, X, and Y models. We furthermore show that a similar result holds even when there are more than two Higgs doublets: the Yukawa-coupling matrices to fermions of a given electric charge remain proportional under the renormalization-group running if and only if there is a basis for the Higgs doublets in which all the fermions of a given electric charge couple to only one Higgs doublet.

Optimal design of piezolaminated structures using B-spline strip finite element models

A package of B-spline finite strip models is developed for the linear analysis of piezolaminated plates and shells. This package is associated to a global optimization technique in order to enhance the performance of these types of structures, subjected to various types of objective functions and/or constraints, with discrete and continuous design variables. The models considered are based on a higher-order displacement field and one can apply them to the static, free vibration and buckling analyses of laminated adaptive structures with arbitrary lay-ups, loading and boundary conditions. Genetic algorithms, with either binary or floating point encoding of design variables, were considered to find optimal locations of piezoelectric actuators as well as to determine the best voltages applied to them in order to obtain a desired structure shape. These models provide an overall economy of computing effort for static and vibration problems.