Testing option pricing with the Edgeworth expansion

There is a well-developed framework, the Black-Scholes theory, for the pricing of contracts based on the future prices of certain assets, called options. This theory assumes that the probability distribution of the returns of the underlying asset is a Gaussian distribution. However, it is observed in the market that this hypothesis is flawed, leading to the introduction of a fudge factor, the so-called volatility smile. Therefore, it would be interesting to explore extensions of the Black-Scholes theory to non-Gaussian distributions. In this paper, we provide an explicit formula for the price of an option when the distributions of the returns of the underlying asset is parametrized by an Edgeworth expansion, which allows for the introduction of higher independent moments of the probability distribution, namely skewness and kurtosis. We test our formula with options in the Brazilian and American markets, showing that the volatility smile can be reduced. We also check whether our approach leads to more efficient hedging strategies of these instruments. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the water sector in the Turks and Caicos Islands

The best description of water resources for Grand Turk was offered by Pérez Monteagudo (2000) who suggested that rain water was insufficient to ensure a regular water supply although water catchment was being practised and water catchment possibilities had been analysed. Limestone islands, mostly flat and low lying, have few possibilities for large scale surface storage, and groundwater lenses exist in very delicate equilibrium with saline seawater, and are highly likely to collapse due to sea level rise, improper extraction, drought, tidal waves or other extreme event. A study on the impact of climate change on water resources in the Turks and Caicos Islands is a challenging task, due to the fact that the territory of the Islands covers different environmental resources and conditions, and accurate data are lacking. The present report is based on collected data wherever possible, including grey data from several sources such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and Cuban meteorological service data sets. Other data were also used, including the author’s own estimates and modelling results. Although challenging, this was perhaps the best approach towards analysing the situation. Furthermore, IPCC A2 and B2 scenarios were used in the present study in an effort to reduce uncertainty. The main conclusion from the scenario approach is that the trend observed in precipitation during the period 1961 - 1990 is decreasing. Similar behaviour was observed in the Caribbean region. This trend is associated with meteorological causes, particularly with the influence of the North Atlantic Anticyclone. The annual decrease in precipitation is estimated to be between 30-40% with uncertain impacts on marine resources. After an assessment of fresh water resources in Turks and Caicos Islands, the next step was to estimate residential water demand based on a high fertility rate scenario for the Islands (one selected from four scenarios and compared to countries having similar characteristics). The selected scenario presents higher projections on consumption growth, enabling better preparation for growing water demand. Water demand by tourists (stopover and excursionists, mainly cruise passengers) was also obtained, based on international daily consumption estimates. Tourism demand forecasts for Turks and Caicos Islands encompass the forty years between 2011 and 2050 and were obtained by means of an Artificial Neural Networks approach. for the A2 and B2 scenarios, resulting in the relation BAU>B2>A2 in terms of tourist arrivals and water demand levels from tourism. Adaptation options and policies were analysed. Resolving the issue of the best technology to be used for Turks and Caicos Islands is not directly related to climate change. Total estimated water storage capacity is about 1, 270, 800 m3/ year with 80% capacity load for three plants. However, almost 11 desalination plants have been detected on Turks and Caicos Islands. Without more data, it is not possible to estimate long term investment to match possible water demand and more complex adaptation options. One climate change adaptation option would be the construction of elevated (30 metres or higher) storm resistant water reservoirs. The unit cost of the storage capacity is the sum of capital costs and operational and maintenance costs. Electricity costs to pump water are optional as water should, and could, be stored for several months. The costs arising for water storage are in the range of US$ 0.22 cents/m3 without electricity costs. Pérez Monteagudo (2000) estimated water prices at around US$ 2.64/m3 in stand points, US$ 7.92 /m3 for government offices, and US$ 13.2 /m3for cistern truck vehicles. These data need to be updated. As Turks and Caicos Islands continues to depend on tourism and Reverse Osmosis (RO) for obtaining fresh water, an unavoidable condition to maintaining and increasing gross domestic product(GDP) and population welfare, dependence on fossil fuels and vulnerability to increasingly volatile prices will constitute an important restriction. In this sense, mitigation supposes a synergy with adaptation. Energy demand and emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) were also estimated using an emissions factor of 2. 6 tCO2/ tonne of oil equivalent (toe). Assuming a population of 33,000 inhabitants, primary energy demand was estimated for Turks and Caicos Islands at 110,000 toe with electricity demand of around 110 GWh. The business as usual (BAU), as well as the mitigation scenarios were estimated. The BAU scenario suggests that energy use should be supported by imported fossil fuels with important improvements in energy efficiency. The mitigation scenario explores the use of photovoltaic and concentrating solar power, and wind energy. As this is a preliminary study, the local potential and locations need to be identified to provide more relevant estimates. Macroeconomic assumptions are the same for both scenarios. By 2050, Turks and Caicos Islands could demand 60 m toe less than for the BAU scenario.

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the health sector In Jamaica

Climate change is a naturally occurring phenomenon in which the earth‘s climate goes through cycles of warming and cooling; these changes usually take place incrementally over millennia. Over the past century, there has been an anomalous increase in global temperature, giving rise to accelerated climate change. It is widely accepted that greenhouse gas emissions from human activities such as industries have contributed significantly to the increase in global temperatures. The existence and survival of all living organisms is predicated on the ability of the environment in which they live not only to provide conditions for their basic needs but also conditions suitable for growth and reproduction. Unabated climate change threatens the existence of biophysical and ecological systems on a planetary scale. The present study aims to examine the economic impact of climate change on health in Jamaica over the period 2011-2050. To this end, three disease conditions with known climate sensitivity and importance to Jamaican public health were modelled. These were: dengue fever, leptospirosis and gastroenteritis in children under age 5. Historical prevalence data on these diseases were obtained from the Ministry of Health Jamaica, the Caribbean Epidemiology Centre, the Climate Studies Group Mona, University of the West Indies Mona campus, and the Meteorological Service of Jamaica. Data obtained spanned a twelve-year period of 1995-2007. Monthly data were obtained for dengue and gastroenteritis, while for leptospirosis, the annual number of cases for 1995-2005 was utilized. The two SRES emission scenarios chosen were A2 and B2 using the European Centre Hamburg Model (ECHAM) global climate model to predict climate variables for these scenarios. A business as usual (BAU) scenario was developed using historical disease data for the period 2000-2009 (dengue fever and gastroenteritis) and 1995-2005 (leptospirosis) as the reference decades for the respective diseases. The BAU scenario examined the occurrence of the diseases in the absence of climate change. It assumed that the disease trend would remain unchanged over the projected period and the number of cases of disease for each decade would be the same as the reference decade. The model used in the present study utilized predictive empirical statistical modelling to extrapolate the climate/disease relationship in time, to estimate the number of climate change-related cases under future climate change scenarios. The study used a Poisson regression model that considered seasonality and lag effects to determine the best-fit model in relation to the diseases under consideration. Zhang and others (2008), in their review of climate change and the transmission of vector-borne diseases, found that: ―Besides climatic variables, few of them have included other factors that can affect the transmission of vector-borne disease….‖ (Zhang 2008) Water, sanitation and health expenditure are key determinants of health. In the draft of the second communication to IPCC, Jamaica noted the vulnerability of public health to climate change, including sanitation and access to water (MSJ/UNDP, 2009). Sanitation, which in its broadest context includes the removal of waste (excreta, solid, or other hazardous waste), is a predictor of vector-borne diseases (e.g. dengue fever), diarrhoeal diseases (such as gastroenteritis) and zoonoses (such as leptospirosis). In conceptualizing the model, an attempt was made to include non-climate predictors of these climate-sensitive diseases. The importance of sanitation and water access to the control of dengue, gastroenteritis and leptospirosis were included in the Poisson regression model. The Poisson regression model obtained was then used to predict the number of disease cases into the future (2011-2050) for each emission scenario. After projecting the number of cases, the cost associated with each scenario was calculated using four cost components. 1. Treatment cost morbidity estimate. The treatment cost for the number of cases was calculated using reference values found in the literature for each condition. The figures were derived from studies of the cost of treatment and represent ambulatory and non-fatal hospitalized care for dengue fever and gastroenteritis. Due to the paucity of published literature on the health care cost associated with leptospirosis, only the cost of diagnosis and antibiotic therapy were included in the calculation. 2. Mortality estimates. Mortality estimates are recorded as case fatality rates. Where local data were available, these were utilized. Where these were unavailable, appropriate reference values from the literature were used. 3. Productivity loss. Productivity loss was calculated using a human capital approach, by multiplying the expected number of productive days lost by the caregiver and/or the infected person, by GDP per capita per day (US$ 14) at 2008 GDP using 2008 US$ exchange rates. 4. No-option cost. The no-option cost refers to adaptation strategies for the control of dengue fever which are ongoing and already a part of the core functions of the Vector Control Division of the Ministry of Health, Jamaica. An estimated US$ 2.1 million is utilized each year in conducting activities to prevent the post-hurricane spread of vector borne diseases and diarrhoea. The cost includes public education, fogging, laboratory support, larvicidal activities and surveillance. This no-option cost was converted to per capita estimates, using population estimates for Jamaica up to 2050 obtained from the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN, 2006) and the assumption of one expected major hurricane per decade. During the decade 2000-2009, Jamaica had an average inflation of 10.4% (CIA Fact book, last updated May 2011). This average decadal inflation rate was applied to the no-option cost, which was inflated by 10% for each successive decade to adjust for changes in inflation over time.

Efficacy of the d-phenothrin/pyriproxyfen association against mites in naturally co-infested rabbits

O objetivo do presente estudo foi avaliar a eficácia da associação de d-fenotrina e piriproxifen no controle de infestações simultâneas por Psoroptes ovis, Cheyletiella parasitivorax e Leporacarus gibbus em coelhos naturalmente co-infestados. Vinte coelhos mestiços (Nova Zelândia Branco x Califórnia) infestados simultaneamente pelas três espécies de ácaros foram divididos aleatoriamente em dois grupos. Todos os coelhos infestados por apresentavam eritema, hiperemia e formação de crostas nas orelhas, causados por P. ovis. Infestações simultâneas por C. parasitivorax e L. gibbus foram considerados assintomáticas em todos os animais. Dez animais foram tratados com uma formulação spray contendo d-fenotrina a 4,4% e piriproxifen a 0,148%, pulverizando toda a superfície corporal de forma uniforme, incluindo a face interna das orelhas. Os outros 10 coelhos não foram t ratados, sendo mantidos como grupo controle. Os animais foram avaliados nos dias 7, 14, 21, 28 e 35 pós-tratamento. A associação de d-fenotrina e piriproxifen foi 100% eficaz no controle das três espécies de ácaros e foi responsável pela remissão das lesões de sarna psoróptica nos animais tratados. Não foram observados sinais de intoxicação. Os resultados indicam que a formulação spray de d-fenotrina e piriproxifen em uma única aplicação é uma opção clinicamente segura e eficaz no controle de infestações por ácaros em coelhos.

Treatment of Atrophic Mandibular Fractures with the Pencilboneplate: Report of 2 Cases

The incidence of fractures of the atrophic edentulous mandible is still low, even with the increasing life expectancy. The reduced blood supply of the sclerotic bone, the diminished contact area between bone fragments and the patient’s systemic condition makes the treatment of those fractures a challenge for any professional. Treatment of atrophic mandibular fractures by means of miniplate osteosynthesis has not been the preferred method of fixa- tion by many authors. Yet, many surgeons have applied this type of fixation for the atrophied jaw sections. This paper reports 2 cases of fractured atrophic mandibles treated with the pencilboneplate, a monocortical 2.0 mm titanium, 8 or 10-hole hardware with reinforcement on its middle portion, highlighting important considerations of its use. The pencilboneplate appears to be a valuable option for the treatment of atrophic mandibular fractures, espe- cially by an intra-oral approach, and warrants further bio- mechanical and clinical studies.

Orthodontic movement of a maxillary incisor through the midpalatal suture A case report

Orthodontic space closure is a treatment alternative when a maxillary central incisor is missing. The objective of this report was to present an unusual treatment in which a right maxillary central incisor was moved through the midpalatal suture to replace the absent contralateral tooth. The biologic aspects and clinical appearance of the recontoured lateral and central incisors were analyzed. The position of the examined teeth and the appearance of the surrounding soft tissues were satisfactory; however, the upper midline frenulum deviated to the left. The incisor was successfully moved with no obvious detrimental effects as observed on the final radiographs. In the radiographic and tomographic examinations, the midline suture seemed to have followed the tooth movement. The patient expressed satisfaction with the results. It was concluded that orthodontic movement of the central incisor to replace a missing contralateral tooth is a valid treatment option, and the achievement of an esthetic result requires an interdisciplinary approach, including restorative dentistry and periodontics. (Angle Orthod. 2012;82:370-379.)

Applications of infrared thermography in the food industry

In the last 20-30 years, the implementation of new technologies from the research centres to the food industry process was very fast. The infrared thermography is a tool used in many fields, including agriculture and food science technology, because of it's important qualities like non-destructive method, it is fast, it is accurate, it is repeatable and economical. Almost all the industrial food processors have to use the thermal process to obtain an optimal product respecting the quality and safety standards. The control of temperature of food products during the production, transportation, storage and sales is an essential process in the food industry network. This tool can minimize the human error during the control of heat operation, and reduce the costs with personal. In this thesis the application of infrared thermography (IRT) was studies for different products that need a thermal process during the food processing. The background of thermography was presented, and also some of its applications in food industry, with the benefits and limits of applicability. The measurement of the temperature of the egg shell during the heat treatment in natural convection and with hot-air treatment was compared with the calculated temperatures obtained by a simplified finite element model made in the past. The complete process shown a good results between calculated and observed temperatures and we can say that this technique can be useful to control the heat treatments for decontamination of egg using the infrared thermography. Other important application of IRT was to determine the evolution of emissivity of potato raw during the freezing process and the control non-destructive control of this process. We can conclude that the IRT can represent a real option for the control of thermal process from the food industry, but more researches on various products are necessary.

S-Adenosylmethionine for osteoarthritis of the knee or hip

BACKGROUND: Osteoarthritis is the most common form of joint disease and the leading cause of pain and disability in the elderly. S-Adenosylmethionine may be a viable treatment option but the evidence about its effectiveness and safety is equivocal. OBJECTIVES: We set out to compare S-Adenosylmethionine (SAMe) with placebo or no specific intervention in terms of effects on pain and function and safety outcomes in patients with knee or hip osteoarthritis. SEARCH STRATEGY: We searched CENTRAL, MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL and PEDro up to 5 August 2008, checked conference proceedings and reference lists, and contacted authors. SELECTION CRITERIA: Randomised or quasi-randomised controlled trials that compared SAMe at any dosage and in any formulation with placebo or no intervention in patients with osteoarthritis of the knee or hip. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two independent authors extracted data using standardised forms. We contacted investigators to obtain missing outcome information. We calculated standardised mean differences (SMDs) for pain and function, and relative risks for safety outcomes. We combined trials using inverse-variance random-effects meta-analysis. MAIN RESULTS: Four trials including 656 patients were included in the systematic review, all compared SAMe with placebo. The methodological quality and the quality of reporting were poor. For pain, the analysis indicated a small SMD of -0.17 (95% CI -0.34 to 0.01), corresponding to a difference in pain scores between SAMe and placebo of 0.4 cm on a 10 cm VAS, with no between trial heterogeneity (I(2) = 0). For function, the analysis suggested a SMD of 0.02 (95% CI -0.68 to 0.71) with a moderate degree of between-trial heterogeneity (I2 = 54%). The meta-analyses of the number of patients experiencing any adverse event, and withdrawals or drop-outs due to adverse events, resulted in relative risks of 1.27 (95% CI 0.94 to 1.71) and 0.94 (95% CI 0.48 to 1.86), respectively, but confidence intervals were wide and tests for overall effect were not significant. No trial provided information concerning the occurrence of serious adverse events. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: The current systematic review is inconclusive, hampered by the inclusion of mainly small trials of questionable quality. The effects of SAMe on both pain and function may be potentially clinically relevant and, although effects are expected to be small, deserve further clinical evaluation in adequately sized randomised, parallel-group trials in patients with knee or hip osteoarthritis. Meanwhile, routine use of SAMe should not be advised.

An Economic Comparison of Rotational Grazing Systems to Eight Crop Alternatives and the CRP Option for Highly Erodible Land in Southwest Iowa

Economic comparisons of income on highly erodible land (HEL) in Adams County were made utilizing five years of grazing data collected from a 13- paddock intensive-rotational grazing system and a four-paddock rotational-grazing system and four years of data collected from an 18-paddock intensive-rotational grazing system, all at the Adams County CRP Research and Demonstration Farm near Corning. Net income from the average grazing weight-gain of Angus-sired calves nursing crossbred cows was compared to the net income from grazing yearling steers, to the net income of eight NRCS-recommended crop rotations, and to the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) option. Results of these comparisons show the 13-paddock intensive rotational grazing system with cow-calf pairs to be the most profitable alternative, with a net return of $19.86 per acre per year. The second most profitable alternative is the CRP option, with a net return of $13.09 per acre, and the third most profitable option is the fourpaddock rotation with cows and calves with a net return of $12.53 per acre. An 18-paddock system returned a net income of $2.47 per acre per year with cows and calves in 1993, but lost an average of $107.69 per acre each year in 1994 and 1995 with yearling steers. Each year, the steers were purchased high and sold low, contributing to the large loss per acre. The following recommended crop rotations all show net losses on these 9-14 % slope, Adair-Shelby Complex soils (ApD3): continuous corn; corn-soybean rotation; corn-soybean rotation with a farm program deficiency payment; corn-corn-corn-oats-meadow-meadow rotation with grass headlands; continuous corn to “T” with grass headlands and buffer strips; continuous corn to “T” with grass headlands, buffer strips, and a deficiency payment; corn-corn-oats-meadow rotation to “T”; and corn-soybeans-oats-meadow-meadow-meadow-meadow rotation to “T”. Per-acre yield assumptions of 90 bushels for corn, 30 bushels for soybeans, 45 bushels for oats, and four tons for alfalfa were used, with per-bushel prices of $2.40 on corn, $5.50 on soybeans, and $1.50 on oats. Alfalfa hay was priced at $40.00 per ton and grass hay at $33.33 per ton. The calf weight-gain in the cow/ calf systems was valued at $.90 per pound. All crop expenses except land costs were calculated from ISU publication Fm 1712, “Estimated Costs of Crop Production in Iowa - 1995.” Land costs were determined by using an opportunity cost and actual property tax figures for the land at the grazing site. In preparation for the end of the CRP beginning in 1996, further economic comparisons will be made after additional grazing seasons and data collection. This project is an interagency cooperative effort sponsored by the Southern Iowa Forage and Livestock Committee which has special permission from the USDA Farm Service Agency (FSA) to use CRP land for research and demonstration.

Comparative cost-effectiveness of Option B+ for prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV in Malawi.

OBJECTIVE To estimate the cost-effectiveness of prevention of mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) of HIV with lifelong antiretroviral therapy (ART) for pregnant and breastfeeding women ('Option B+') compared with ART during pregnancy or breastfeeding only unless clinically indicated ('Option B'). DESIGN Mathematical modelling study of first and second pregnancy, informed by data from the Malawi Option B+ programme. METHODS Individual-based simulation model. We simulated cohorts of 10 000 women and their infants during two subsequent pregnancies, including the breastfeeding period, with either Option B+ or B. We parameterized the model with data from the literature and by analysing programmatic data. We compared total costs of antenatal and postnatal care, and lifetime costs and disability-adjusted life-years of the infected infants between Option B+ and Option B. RESULTS During the first pregnancy, 15% of the infants born to HIV-infected mothers acquired the infection. With Option B+, 39% of the women were on ART at the beginning of the second pregnancy, compared with 18% with Option B. For second pregnancies, the rates MTCT were 11.3% with Option B+ and 12.3% with Option B. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio comparing the two options ranged between about US$ 500 and US$ 1300 per DALY averted. CONCLUSION Option B+ prevents more vertical transmissions of HIV than Option B, mainly because more women are already on ART at the beginning of the next pregnancy. Option B+ is a cost-effective strategy for PMTCT if the total future costs and lost lifetime of the infected infants are taken into account.

Seasonal migration and micro-credit in the lean period : evidence from northwest Bangladesh

This paper investigates the relationship between access to micro-credit and temporary seasonal migration, an issue which is largely ignored in the standard rural-urban migration literature. Seasonal migration due to agricultural downturns is a common phenomenon in developing countries. Using primary data from a cross-sectional household survey from the northwest part of Bangladesh, this study quantifies the factors that influence such migration decisions. Among other results, we find that network effects play a significant role in influencing the migration decision, with the presence of kinsmen at the place of destination having considerable impact. Seasonal migration is a natural choice for individual suffering periodic hardship; however the strict weekly loan repayment rules of Micro-credit Institutes can have an adverse effect on this process, reducing the ability of borrowers to react to a shock. Our result suggests that poor individuals prefer the option of not accessing the micro-credit and opt for temporal seasonal migration during the lean period. The results have numerous potential policy implications, including the design of typical micro-credit schemes.

Option contracts for allocating water in inter-basin transfers: the case of the Tagus-Segura Basin in Spain

Users in the Mediterranean region face significant water supply risks. Water markets mechanisms can provide flexibility to water systems run in tight situations. The largest water infrastructure in the Iberian Peninsula connects the Segura and Tagus Basins. Stakeholders and politicians in the Tagus Basin have asked that water transfers between the two basins be eventually phased out. The need to increase the statutory minimum environmental flow in the middle Tagus and to meet new urban demands is going to result in a redefinition of the Transfer?s management rules, leading to a reduction in the transferable volumes. To minimise the consequences of such restrictions to irrigators in the Segura Basin who depend on the transferred volumes, we propose the establishment of water option contracts between both basins that represents an institutional innovation with respect to previous inter-basin spot market experiences. Based on the draft of the new Tagus Basin Plan, we propose both a modification of the Transfer?s management rule and an innovative inter-basin option contract. The main goal of the paper is to define this contract and evaluate it with respect to non-market scenarios. We also assess the resulting impact on environmental flows in the Tagus River and water availability for users in the Segura Basin, together with the economic impacts of such contract on both basins. Our results show that the proposed option contract would reduce the impact of a change in the transfer?s management rule, and reduce the supply risks of the recipient area.

Mechanism for fetal globin gene expression: Role of the soluble guanylate cyclase–cGMP-dependent protein kinase pathway

Despite considerable concerns with pharmacological stimulation of fetal hemoglobin (Hb F) as a therapeutic option for the β-globin disorders, the molecular basis of action of Hb F-inducing agents remains unclear. Here we show that an intracellular pathway including soluble guanylate cyclase (sGC) and cGMP-dependent protein kinase (PKG) plays a role in induced expression of the γ-globin gene. sGC, an obligate heterodimer of α- and β-subunits, participates in a variety of physiological processes by converting GTP to cGMP. Northern blot analyses with erythroid cell lines expressing different β-like globin genes showed that, whereas the β-subunit is expressed at similar levels, high-level expression of the α-subunit is preferentially observed in erythroid cells expressing γ-globin but not those expressing β-globin. Also, the levels of expression of the γ-globin gene correlate to those of the α-subunit. sGC activators or cGMP analogs increased expression of the γ-globin gene in erythroleukemic cells as well as in primary erythroblasts from normal subjects and patients with β-thalassemia. Nuclear run-off assays showed that the sGC activator protoporphyrin IX stimulates transcription of the γ-globin gene. Furthermore, increased expression of the γ-globin gene by well known Hb F-inducers such as hemin and butyrate was abolished by inhibiting sGC or PKG activity. Taken together, these results strongly suggest that the sGC–PKG pathway constitutes a mechanism that regulates expression of the γ-globin gene. Further characterization of this pathway should permit us to develop new therapeutics for the β-globin disorders.

Harvest-home: consisting of Supplementray gleanings, original dramas and poems, contributions of literary friends, and select re-publications, including Sympathy, a poem, revised, corrected and enlarged. From the eight edition. In three volumes.

v. 1. Supplementary gleanings: Hampshire station. Warwickshire station, including the communications of J. Morfitt, esq. - v. 2. Hail fellow! Well met! in five acts. Love trials; or, The triumph of constancy, a comic opera. Fire and frost; a comic drama, in five acts. - v. 3. Original poetry. Original literary contributions. [Poems by H. J. Pye, and others] Select republications. Sympathy, a poem.

The feasibility of hybrid solar-biomass power plants in India

We assess the feasibility of hybrid solar-biomass power plants for use in India in various applications including tri-generation, electricity generation and process heat. To cover this breadth of scenarios we analyse, with the help of simulation models, case studies with peak thermal capacities ranging from 2 to 10 MW. Evaluations are made against technical, financial and environmental criteria. Suitable solar multiples, based on the trade-offs among the various criteria, range from 1 to 2.5. Compared to conventional energy sources, levelised energy costs are high - but competitive in comparison to other renewables such as photovoltaic and wind. Long payback periods for hybrid plants mean that they cannot compete directly with biomass-only systems. However, a 1.2-3.2 times increase in feedstock price will result in hybrid systems becoming cost competitive. Furthermore, in comparison to biomass-only, hybrid operation saves up to 29% biomass and land with an 8.3-24.8 $/GJ/a and 1.8-5.2 ¢/kWh increase in cost per exergy loss and levelised energy cost. Hybrid plants will become an increasingly attractive option as the cost of solar thermal falls and feedstock, fossil fuel and land prices continue to rise. In the foreseeable future, solar will continue to rely on subsidies and it is recommended to subsidise preferentially tri-generation plants. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd.