Photovoltaic power forecast modeling with artificial neural networks

Dissertação de Mestrado, Engenharia Eletrónica e Telecomunicações, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia, Universidade do Algarve, 2016

Gastrointestinal nematode infection in beef cattle raised in silvopastoral and conventional systems in São Paulo state, Brazil.

The use of silvopastoral systems (SPS) can be a good alternative to reduce the environmental impacts of livestock breeding in Brazil. Despite the advantages offered by public policies, many producers hesitate to use this system. One of the reasons is the lack of information on health and productivity of cattle raised under these conditions. The experiment reported here was designed to compare the behavior of infection by gastrointestinal nematodes and weight gain of beef cattle raised in a SPS and a conventional pasture system. We monitored the number of eggs per gram of feces, the prevalent nematode genus, data on climate, forage availability, weight gain and packed cell volume (PCV) of the animals bred in the two systems. The infection by nematodes was significantly higher in the cattle raised in the SPS (p\0.05). The coprocultures revealed the presence of nematodes of the genera Haemonchus, Cooperia, Oesophagostomum and Trichostrongylus, in both systems, but the mean infestation rates of Haemonchus and Cooperia were higher in the SPS (p\0.05). The average of PCV values did not differ between the cattle in the two systems. The individual weight gain and stocking rate in the period did not vary between the systems (p[0.05). Despite the higher prevalence of nematodes in the SPS, no negative impact was detected on the animals? weight gain and health. The results of this experiment indicate that under the conditions studied, there is no need to alter the parasite management to assure good productive performance of cattle

A SCR Model based on Reactor and Engine Experimental Studies for a Cu-zeolite Catalyst

A NOx reduction efficiency higher than 95% with NH3 slip less than 30 ppm is desirable for heavy-duty diesel (HDD) engines using selective catalytic reduction (SCR) systems to meet the US EPA 2010 NOx standard and the 2014-2018 fuel consumption regulation. The SCR performance needs to be improved through experimental and modeling studies. In this research, a high fidelity global kinetic 1-dimensional 2-site SCR model with mass transfer, heat transfer and global reaction mechanisms was developed for a Cu-zeolite catalyst. The model simulates the SCR performance for the engine exhaust conditions with NH3 maldistribution and aging effects, and the details are presented. SCR experimental data were collected for the model development, calibration and validation from a reactor at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) and an engine experimental setup at Michigan Technological University (MTU) with a Cummins 2010 ISB engine. The model was calibrated separately to the reactor and engine data. The experimental setup, test procedures including a surrogate HD-FTP cycle developed for transient studies and the model calibration process are described. Differences in the model parameters were determined between the calibrations developed from the reactor and the engine data. It was determined that the SCR inlet NH3 maldistribution is one of the reasons causing the differences. The model calibrated to the engine data served as a basis for developing a reduced order SCR estimator model. The effect of the SCR inlet NO2/NOx ratio on the SCR performance was studied through simulations using the surrogate HD-FTP cycle. The cumulative outlet NOx and the overall NOx conversion efficiency of the cycle are highest with a NO2/NOx ratio of 0.5. The outlet NH3 is lowest for the NO2/NOx ratio greater than 0.6. A combined engine experimental and simulation study was performed to quantify the NH3 maldistribution at the SCR inlet and its effects on the SCR performance and kinetics. The uniformity index (UI) of the SCR inlet NH3 and NH3/NOx ratio (ANR) was determined to be below 0.8 for the production system. The UI was improved to 0.9 after installation of a swirl mixer into the SCR inlet cone. A multi-channel model was developed to simulate the maldistribution effects. The results showed that reducing the UI of the inlet ANR from 1.0 to 0.7 caused a 5-10% decrease in NOx reduction efficiency and 10-20 ppm increase in the NH3 slip. The simulations of the steady-state engine data with the multi-channel model showed that the NH3 maldistribution is a factor causing the differences in the calibrations developed from the engine and the reactor data. The Reactor experiments were performed at ORNL using a Spaci-IR technique to study the thermal aging effects. The test results showed that the thermal aging (at 800°C for 16 hours) caused a 30% reduction in the NH3 stored on the catalyst under NH3 saturation conditions and different axial concentration profiles under SCR reaction conditions. The kinetics analysis showed that the thermal aging caused a reduction in total NH3 storage capacity (94.6 compared to 138 gmol/m3), different NH3 adsorption/desorption properties and a decrease in activation energy and the pre-exponential factor for NH3 oxidation, standard and fast SCR reactions. Both reduction in the storage capability and the change in kinetics of the major reactions contributed to the change in the axial storage and concentration profiles observed from the experiments.

THE EFFECT OF ANNEALING ON AMORPHOUS SILICON BASED SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC THERMAL SYSTEM (PV/T) AND APPROPRIATE GLOBAL DISPATCH STRATEGIES

Previous work has shown that high-temperature short-term spike thermal annealing of hydrogenated amorphous silicon (a-Si:H) photovoltaic thermal (PVT) systems results in higher electrical energy output. The relationship between temperature and performance of a-Si:H PVT is not simple as high temperatures during thermal annealing improves the immediate electrical performance following an anneal, but during the anneal it creates a marked drop in electrical performance. In addition, the power generation of a-Si:H PVT depends on both the environmental conditions and the Staebler-Wronski Effect kinetics. In order to improve the performance of a-Si:H PVT systems further, this paper reports on the effect of various dispatch strategies on system electrical performance. Utilizing experimental results from thermal annealing, an annealing model simulation for a-Si:Hbased PVT was developed and applied to different cities in the U.S. to investigate potential geographic effects on the dispatch optimization of the overall electrical PVT systems performance and annual electrical yield. The results showed that spike thermal annealing once per day maximized the improved electrical energy generation. In the outdoor operating condition this ideal behavior deteriorates and optimization rules are required to be implemented.

Spatial and Functional Organization of Pig Trade in Different European Production Systems: Implications for Disease Prevention and Control

Understanding the complexity of live pig trade organization is a key factor to predict and control major infectious diseases, such as classical swine fever (CSF) or African swine fever (ASF). Whereas the organization of pig trade has been described in several European countries with indoor commercial production systems, little information is available on this organization in other systems, such as outdoor or small-scale systems. The objective of this study was to describe and compare the spatial and functional organization of live pig trade in different European countries and different production systems. Data on premise characteristics and pig movements between premises were collected during 2011 from Bulgaria, France, Italy, and Spain, which swine industry is representative of most of the production systems in Europe (i.e., commercial vs. small-scale and outdoor vs. indoor). Trade communities were identified in each country using the Walktrap algorithm. Several descriptive and network metrics were generated at country and community levels. Pig trade organization showed heterogeneous spatial and functional organization. Trade communities mostly composed of indoor commercial premises were identified in western France, northern Italy, northern Spain, and north-western Bulgaria. They covered large distances, overlapped in space, demonstrated both scale-free and small-world properties, with a role of trade operators and multipliers as key premises. Trade communities involving outdoor commercial premises were identified in western Spain, south-western and central France. They were more spatially clustered, demonstrated scale-free properties, with multipliers as key premises. Small-scale communities involved the majority of premises in Bulgaria and in central and Southern Italy. They were spatially clustered and had scale-free properties, with key premises usually being commercial production premises. These results indicate that a disease might spread very differently according to the production system and that key premises could be targeted to more cost-effectively control diseases. This study provides useful epidemiological information and parameters that could be used to design risk-based surveillance strategies or to more accurately model the risk of introduction or spread of devastating swine diseases, such as ASF, CSF, or foot-and-mouth disease.

The Ribatejano pig – rebirth of a local pig population? First results

A former cross between Alentejano (AL) and Bísaro (BI) breeds, called Ribatejano pig (RI), was quite spread in Ribatejo region until half of the last century and was raised in both borders of Tagus River. Besides the renewed interest of this cross nowadays, no performance data is available regarding the RI (ALxBI and BIxAL) animals or their products, which were studied in the frame of project TREASURE1. In order to assess the productive performance of the RI pig, castrated AL, BI, ALxBI and BIxAL pigs (10 from each genotype) raised in traditional free-range system and fed commercial diets ad libitum, were slaughtered at ~65kg LW.

Panicum maximum cv. Tanzânia: climate trends and regional pasture production in Brazil.

Projected change in forage production under a range of climate scenarios is important for the evaluation of the impacts of global climate change on pasture-based livestock production systems in Brazil. We evaluated the effects of regional climate trends on Panicum maximum cv. Tanzânia production, predicted by agro-meteorological model considering the sum of degree days and corrected by a water availa bility index. Data from Brazilian weather stations (1963?2009) were considered as the current climate (baseline), and future scenarios, based on contrasting scenarios interms of increased temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentrations (high and low increases), were determined for 2013?2040 (2025 scenario) and for 2043?2070 (2055 scenario). Predicted baseline scenarios indicated that there are regional and seasonal variations in P. maximum production related to variation intemperature and water availability during the year. Production was lower in the Northeast region and higher in the rainforest area. Total annual productionunder future climate scenarios was predicted toincrease by up to 20% for most of the Brazilian area, mainly due to temperature increase, according to each climate model and scenario evaluated. The highest increase in forage production is expected to be in the South, Southeast and Central-west areas of Brazil. In these regions, future climate scenarios will not lead to changes in the seasonal production, with largerincreases in productivity during the summer. Climate risk is expected to decrease, as the probability of occurrence of low forage productions will be lower. Due to the predicted increase in temperature and decrease in rainfall in the Northeast area, P. maximum production is expected to decrease, mainly when considering scenarios based on the PRECIS model for the 2055 scenario.

Administração limpa e enxuta em sistemas hidráulicos de colhedoras de cana-de-açúcar

Among the important changes in the production processes, it is necessary to guarantee the sustainability of the human enterprises, what makes us to foresee changes in the managerial administration to adapt to a new model, with the insert of the concepts of Clean Production, Cleaner, Lean and Total Productive Maintenance (TPM). The main focus of this work was to elaborate a methodology that made it possible to guarantee the reliability in the waterworks of the sugarcane harvester, identifying and analyzing the manners of flaws, in order to result in the improvement of the environmental and socioeconomic quality in the atmosphere of an industry of sugarcane through the significant decrease of hydraulic oil spill. Through the existent report in ERP (Enterprise Resource Planning), used in a Sugarcane Industry Plant, it was possible to accompany of the operational acting of the sugarcane harvester used during 03 crops, regarding the manners of flaws in the waterworks of the same ones, and, in one of the crops it was elaborated the total control of the waterworks of 5 harvesters. Based on the obtained data and the developed methodology it was possible to develop a software that specifies the electric outlet of decisions.

Cultivares de batata para sistemas orgânicos de produção

Informações a respeito de cultivares adaptadas ao sistema de cultivo orgânico são escassas. O objetivo deste estudo foi avaliar, sob sistema de cultivo orgânico, genótipos nacionais e estrangeiros desenvolvidos para o cultivo convencional, quanto ao potencial produtivo, em condições de campo. O experimento foi conduzido em 2008, no Pólo APTA Leste Paulista, em Monte Alegre do Sul-SP. O delineamento experimental foi em blocos ao acaso, com 18 tratamentos e quatro repetições. Cada parcela foi constituída por 80 batatas-semente, dispostas em quatro linhas de 5 m de comprimento, espaçadas de 80 cm, com 25 cm entre tubérculos. Os genótipos avaliados foram Agata, Asterix, Caesar, Cupido, Éden, Melody, Novella e Vivaldi, de origem estrangeira; e Apuã, Aracy, Catucha, IAC Aracy Ruiva, Itararé, Monte Alegre 172, IAC 6090, APTA 16.5, APTA 15.20 e APTA 21.54, nacionais. Foram avaliadas as características de produtividade total e comercial de tubérculos, massa média total e comercial de tubérculos, teor de matéria seca e severidade da pinta-preta (Alternaria solani). Os clones APTA 16.5, APTA 21.54 e IAC 6090, e as cultivares Cupido, Apuã, Itararé e Monte Alegre 172 foram os mais produtivos. 'APTA 21.54' superou os demais em relação a produtividade comercial (18,07 t ha-1), sendo que 'APTA 16.5', 'Cupido', 'IAC 6090' e 'Itararé' formaram o segundo grupo. As maiores massas médias de tubérculos foram apresentadas pelas cultivares Itararé e Cupido. O clone IAC 6090 e as cultivares Aracy e Aracy Ruiva foram as que apresentaram maiores teores de matéria seca, com valor médio de 22,91%. 'APTA 16.5', 'Apuã', 'Aracy', 'Aracy Ruiva', 'Éden', 'Ibituaçú' e 'Monte Alegre 172' apresentaram alto nível de resistência à pinta-preta. As cultivares Itararé, Apuã e Cupido são adaptadas ao cultivo orgânico, e os clones avançados APTA 16.5, APTA 21.54 e IAC 6090 apresentam potencial de cultivo no sistema orgânico.

Desempenho produtivo, características de carcaça e avaliação econômica de bovinos cruzados, castrados e não-castrados, terminados em pastagens de Brachiaria decumbens

Avaliou-se o efeito da castração sobre o desempenho produtivo e sobre as características de carcaça e realizou-se a avaliação econômica de bovinos terminados em pastagens de Brachiaria decumbens. Foram utilizados oito novilhos Canchim-Nelore com 14 meses de idade, sendo quatro animais castrados e quatro não-castrados, com média de peso corporal de 273,2kg. O delineamento foi inteiramente ao acaso com quatro repetições por tratamento. Os animais receberam, diariamente, 0,7% do PC de suplemento proteíco-energético e foram abatidos aos 26 meses de idade. O peso de abate e o ganho médio diário (GMD) diferiram entre castrados e não-castrados, com médias de 441,0 e 482,2kg e 0,6 e 0,7kg/dia, respectivamente. Não houve efeito da castração sobre as características avaliadas, com exceção do peso de abate, do peso da carcaça quente, 252,3 versus 229,9kg, da cor da carne, 3,25 versus 4,50 pontos e da espessura da gordura subcutânea, 0,6 versus 1,4mm, respectivamente, para não-castrados e castrados. A lucratividade por animal e por hectare foi de 14,5 e 15,8% para não-castrados e 4,5 e 5,8% para castrados, respectivamente. Sugere-se a utilização de bovinos não-castrados suplementados em pastagens de Brachiaria decumbens.

Diagnostic errors and repetitive sequential classifications in on-line process control by attributes

The procedure of on-line process control by attributes, known as Taguchi`s on-line process control, consists of inspecting the mth item (a single item) at every m produced items and deciding, at each inspection, whether the fraction of conforming items was reduced or not. If the inspected item is nonconforming, the production is stopped for adjustment. As the inspection system can be subject to diagnosis errors, one develops a probabilistic model that classifies repeatedly the examined item until a conforming or b non-conforming classification is observed. The first event that occurs (a conforming classifications or b non-conforming classifications) determines the final classification of the examined item. Proprieties of an ergodic Markov chain were used to get the expression of average cost of the system of control, which can be optimized by three parameters: the sampling interval of the inspections (m); the number of repeated conforming classifications (a); and the number of repeated non-conforming classifications (b). The optimum design is compared with two alternative approaches: the first one consists of a simple preventive policy. The production system is adjusted at every n produced items (no inspection is performed). The second classifies the examined item repeatedly r (fixed) times and considers it conforming if most classification results are conforming. Results indicate that the current proposal performs better than the procedure that fixes the number of repeated classifications and classifies the examined item as conforming if most classifications were conforming. On the other hand, the preventive policy can be averagely the most economical alternative rather than those ones that require inspection depending on the degree of errors and costs. A numerical example illustrates the proposed procedure. (C) 2009 Elsevier B. V. All rights reserved.

Allele-Specific Expression of the MAOA Gene and X Chromosome Inactivation in In Vitro Produced Bovine Embryos

During embryogenesis, one of the two X chromosomes is inactivated in embryos. The production of embryos in vitro may affect epigenetic mechanisms that could alter the expression of genes related to embryo development and X chromosome inactivation (XCI). The aim of this study was to understand XCI during in vitro, pre-implantation bovine embryo development by characterizing the allele-specific expression pattern of the X chromosome-linked gene, monoamine oxidase A (MAOA). Two pools of ten embryos, comprised of the 4-, 8- to 16-cell, morula, blastocyst, and expanded blastocyst stages, were collected. Total RNA from embryos was isolated, and the RT-PCR-RFLP technique was used to observe expression of the MAOA gene. The DNA amplicons were also sequenced using the dideoxy sequencing method. MAOA mRNA was detected, and allele-specific expression was identified in each pool of embryos. We showed the presence of both the maternal and paternal alleles in the 4-, 8-to 16-cell, blastocyst and expanded blastocyst embryos, but only the maternal allele was present in the morula stage. Therefore, we can affirm that the paternal X chromosome is totally inactivated at the morula stage and reactivated at the blastocyst stage. To our knowledge, this is the first report of allele-specific expression of an X-linked gene that is subject to XCI in in vitro bovine embryos from the 4-cell to expanded blastocyst stages. We have established a pattern of XCI in our in vitro embryo production system that can be useful as a marker to assist the development of new protocols for in vitro embryo production. Mol. Reprod. Dev. MoL Reprod. Dev. 77: 615-621, 2010. (C) 2010 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Stability Condition Based Sliding Mode Modulators for Multilevel Power Converters

Sliding mode controllers for power converters usually employ hysteresis comparators to directly generate the power semiconductors switching states. This paper presents a new sliding mode modulator based on the direct implementation of the sliding mode stability condition, which for multilevel power converters shows advantages, as branch equalized switching frequencies and less distortion on the ac currents when operating near the rated converter power. The new sliding mode multilevel modulator is used to control a three-phase multilevel converter, operated as a reactive power compensator (STATCOM), implementing the stability condition in a digital signal processing system. The performance of this new sliding mode modulator is compared with a multilevel modulator based on hysteresis comparators. Simulation and experimental results are presented in order to highlight the system operation and control robustness.

O impacto energético e as emissões de CO2 dos veículos eléctricos em Portugal

Para a diminuição da dependência energética de Portugal face às importações de energia, a Estratégia Nacional para a Energia 2020 (ENE 2020) define uma aposta na produção de energia a partir de fontes renováveis, na promoção da eficiência energética tanto nos edifícios como nos transportes com vista a reduzir as emissões de gases com efeito de estufa. No campo da eficiência energética, o ENE 2020 pretende obter uma poupança energética de 9,8% face a valores de 2008, traduzindo-se em perto de 1800 milhões de tep já em 2015. Uma das medidas passa pela aposta na mobilidade eléctrica, onde se prevê que os veículos eléctricos possam contribuir significativamente para a redução do consumo de combustível e por conseguinte, para a redução das emissões de CO2 para a atmosfera. No entanto, esta redução está condicionada pelas fontes de energia utilizadas para o abastecimento das baterias. Neste estudo foram determinados os consumos de combustível e as emissões de CO2 de um veículo de combustão interna adimensional representativo do parque automóvel. É também estimada a previsão de crescimento do parque automóvel num cenário "Business-as-Usual", através dos métodos de previsão tecnológica para o horizonte 2010-2030, bem como cenários de penetração de veículos eléctricos para o mesmo período com base no método de Fisher- Pry. É ainda analisado o impacto que a introdução dos veículos eléctricos tem ao nível dos consumos de combustível, das emissões de dióxido de carbono e qual o impacto que tal medida terá na rede eléctrica, nomeadamente no diagrama de carga e no nível de emissões de CO2 do Sistema Electroprodutor Nacional. Por fim, é avaliado o impacto dos veículos eléctricos no diagrama de carga diário português, com base em vários perfis de carga das baterias. A introdução de veículos eléctricos em Portugal terá pouca expressão dado que, no melhor dos cenários haverão somente cerca de 85 mil unidades em circulação, no ano de 2030. Ao nível do consumo de combustíveis rodoviários, os veículos eléctricos poderão vir a reduzir o consumo de gasolina até 0,52% e até 0,27% no consumo de diesel, entre 2010 e 2030, contribuindo ligeiramente uma menor dependência energética externa. Ao nível do consumo eléctrico, o abastecimento das baterias dos veículos eléctricos representará até 0,5% do consumo eléctrico total, sendo que parte desse abastecimento será garantido através de centrais de ciclo combinado a gás natural. Apesar da maior utilização deste tipo de centrais térmicas para produção de energia, tanto para abastecimento das viaturas eléctricas, como para o consumo em geral, verifica-se que em 2030, o nível de emissões do sistema electroprodutor será cerca de 46% inferior aos níveis registados em 2010, prevendo-se que atinja as 0,163gCO2/kWh produzido pelo Sistema Electroprodutor Nacional devido à maior quota de produção das fontes de energia renovável, como o vento, a hídrica ou a solar.

Aplicação do lean construction no controlo e gestão em processos de produção

O presente trabalho é constituído por uma descrição das metodologias de fabrico de misturas betuminosas a quente, identificação de normas e requisitos a cumprir pelos materiais constituintes para cada tipo de mistura e sua função. Os princípios Lean definiram a lógica de trabalho do novo sistema de gestão e controlo de processos na produção de misturas betuminosas na TGA. A filosofia do pensamento Lean tem origem no sistema de produção da Toyota (TPS, Toyota Production System), criado por Taiichi Ohno (1988), os seus resultados foram tão evidentes que iniciou-se um processo de estudo sobre o conceito aplicado. Lean Thinking, (“pensamento magro“), foi utilizado pela primeira vez por James Womack e Daniel Jones em 1996 como conceito de liderança e gestão empresarial, sendo desde então aplicado este termo mundialmente como filosofia de gestão baseada na criação de valoratravés de eliminação do desperdício. Lean Construction utiliza os princípios Lean e aplica à construção civil, pode ser definida como uma forma de organizar a produção minimizando o desperdício de materiais, tempo e esforço. Alcançado através de uma melhoria sistemática de processos de construção, dos métodos de selecção de fornecimento e confiança no trabalho. A Lean Construction está em desenvolvimento em todo o mundo, mas em Portugal não se verifica essa tendência. Foi efectuado um estudo de todas as actividades realizadas no fabrico e controlo de misturas betuminosas, permitindo identificar desperdícios e aplicar medidas de eficiência produtiva. Analise e apresentação de resultados obtidos com a aplicação dos novos processos de gestão, controlo e produção nos centros de produção. Este trabalho demonstra que a introdução da filosofia Lean permite aumentar níveis de eficiência tornando a empresa mais competitiva.