Drivers of technology substitution : successive generations of high tech products

Principal Topic High technology consumer products such as notebooks, digital cameras and DVD players are not introduced into a vacuum. Consumer experience with related earlier generation technologies, such as PCs, film cameras and VCRs, and the installed base of these products strongly impacts the market diffusion of the new generation products. Yet technology substitution has received only sparse attention in the diffusion of innovation literature. Research for consumer durables has been dominated by studies of (first purchase) adoption (c.f. Bass 1969) which do not explicitly consider the presence of an existing product/technology. More recently, considerable attention has also been given to replacement purchases (c.f. Kamakura and Balasubramanian 1987). Only a handful of papers explicitly deal with the diffusion of technology/product substitutes (e.g. Norton and Bass, 1987: Bass and Bass, 2004). They propose diffusion-type aggregate-level sales models that are used to forecast the overall sales for successive generations. Lacking household data, these aggregate models are unable to give insights into the decisions by individual households - whether to adopt generation II, and if so, when and why. This paper makes two contributions. It is the first large-scale empirical study that collects household data for successive generations of technologies in an effort to understand the drivers of adoption. Second, in comparision to traditional analysis that evaluates technology substitution as an ''adoption of innovation'' type process, we propose that from a consumer's perspective, technology substitution combines elements of both adoption (adopting the new generation technology) and replacement (replacing the generation I product with generation II). Based on this proposition, we develop and test a number of hypotheses. Methodology/Key Propositions In some cases, successive generations are clear ''substitutes'' for the earlier generation, in that they have almost identical functionality. For example, successive generations of PCs Pentium I to II to III or flat screen TV substituting for colour TV. More commonly, however, the new technology (generation II) is a ''partial substitute'' for existing technology (generation I). For example, digital cameras substitute for film-based cameras in the sense that they perform the same core function of taking photographs. They have some additional attributes of easier copying and sharing of images. However, the attribute of image quality is inferior. In cases of partial substitution, some consumers will purchase generation II products as substitutes for their generation I product, while other consumers will purchase generation II products as additional products to be used as well as their generation I product. We propose that substitute generation II purchases combine elements of both adoption and replacement, but additional generation II purchases are solely adoption-driven process. Extensive research on innovation adoption has consistently shown consumer innovativeness is the most important consumer characteristic that drives adoption timing (Goldsmith et al. 1995; Gielens and Steenkamp 2007). Hence, we expect consumer innovativeness also to influence both additional and substitute generation II purchases. Hypothesis 1a) More innovative households will make additional generation II purchases earlier. 1 b) More innovative households will make substitute generation II purchases earlier. 1 c) Consumer innovativeness will have a stronger impact on additional generation II purchases than on substitute generation II purchases. As outlined above, substitute generation II purchases act, in part like a replacement purchase for the generation I product. Prior research (Bayus 1991; Grewal et al 2004) identified product age as the most dominant factor influencing replacements. Hence, we hypothesise that: Hypothesis 2: Households with older generation I products will make substitute generation II purchases earlier. Our survey of 8,077 households investigates their adoption of two new generation products: notebooks as a technology change to PCs, and DVD players as a technology shift from VCRs. We employ Cox hazard modelling to study factors influencing the timing of a household's adoption of generation II products. We determine whether this is an additional or substitute purchase by asking whether the generation I product is still used. A separate hazard model is conducted for additional and substitute purchases. Consumer Innovativeness is measured as domain innovativeness adapted from the scales of Goldsmith and Hofacker (1991) and Flynn et al. (1996). The age of the generation I product is calculated based on the most recent household purchase of that product. Control variables include age, size and income of household, and age and education of primary decision-maker. Results and Implications Our preliminary results confirm both our hypotheses. Consumer innovativeness has a strong influence on both additional purchases (exp = 1.11) and substitute purchases (exp = 1.09). Exp is interpreted as the increased probability of purchase for an increase of 1.0 on a 7-point innovativeness scale. Also consistent with our hypotheses, the age of the generation I product has a dramatic influence for substitute purchases of VCR/DVD (exp = 2.92) and a strong influence for PCs/notebooks (exp = 1.30). Exp is interpreted as the increased probability of purchase for an increase of 10 years in the age of the generation I product. Yet, also as hypothesised, there was no influence on additional purchases. The results lead to two key implications. First, there is a clear distinction between additional and substitute purchases of generation II products, each with different drivers. Treating these as a single process will mask the true drivers of adoption. For substitute purchases, product age is a key driver. Hence, implications for marketers of high technology products can utilise data on generation I product age (e.g. from warranty or loyalty programs) to target customers who are more likely to make a purchase.

A national building products inventory

Australia has no nationally accepted building products life cycle inventory (LCI) database for use in building Ecologically Sustainable Development (ESD) assessment (BEA) tools. More information about the sustainability of the supply chain is limited by industry’s lack of real capacity to deliver objective information on process and product environmental impact. Recognition of these deficits emerged during compilation of a National LCI database to inform LCADesign, a prototype 3 dimensional object oriented computer aided design (3-D CAD) commercial building design tool. Development of this Australian LCI represents 24 staff years of effort here since 1995. Further development of LCADesign extensions is proposed as being essential to support key applications demanded from a more holistic theoretical framework calling for modules of new building and construction industry tools. A proposed tool, conceptually called LCADetails, is to serve the building product industries own needs as well as that of commercial building design amongst other industries’ prospective needs. In this paper, a proposition is examined that the existing national LCI database should be further expanded to serve Australian building product industries’ needs as well as to provide details for its client-base from a web based portal containing a module of practical supply and procurement applications. Along with improved supply chain assessment services, this proposed portal is envisaged to facilitate industry environmental life cycle improvement assessment and support decision-making to provide accredited data for operational reporting capabilities, load-based reasoning as well as BEA applications. This paper provides an overview of developments to date, including a novel 3-D CAD information and communications technology (ICT) platform for more holistic integration of existing tools for true cost assessment. Further conceptualisation of future prospects, based on a new holistic life cycle assessment framework LCADevelop, considering stakeholder relationships and their need for a range of complementary tools leveraging automated function off such ICT platforms to inform dimensionally defined operations for such as automotive, civil, transport and industrial applications are also explored.

The influence of ad model ethnicity and self-referencing on attitudes evidence from New Zealand

This paper examines consumers self-referencing as a mechanism for explaining ethnicity effects in advertising. Data was collected from a 2 (model ethnicity: Asian, white) x 2 (product stereotypicality: stereotypical, non-stereotypical) experiment. Measured independent variables included participant ethnicity and self-referencing. Results shows that (1) Asian exhibit greater self-referencing of Asian models than whites do; (2) self-referencing mediates ethnicity effects on attitude ( ie, attitude towards the model, attitude toward the add, brand attitude, and purchase intentions); (3) high self-referencing Asian have more favourable attitude towards the add and purchase intentions than low self referencing Asians; and (4) Asian models advertising atypical products generate more self-referencing and more favourable attitudes toward the model, A, and purchase intentions for both Asians and whites.

Towards Humane Technologies: Biotechnologies, New Media and Ethics

What are the ethical and political implications when the very foundations of life —things of awe and spiritual significance — are translated into products accessible to few people? This book critically analyses this historic recontextualisation. Through mediation — when meaning moves ‘from one text to another, from one discourse to another’ — biotechnology is transformed into analysable data and into public discourses. The unique book links biotechnology with media and citizenship. As with any ‘commodity’, biological products have been commodified. Because enormous speculative investment rests on this, risk will be understated and benefit will be overstated. Benefits will be unfairly distributed. Already, the bioprospecting of Southern megadiverse nations, legally sanctioned by U.S. property rights conventions, has led to wealth and health benefits in the North. Crucial to this development are biotechnological discourses that shift meanings from a “language of life” into technocratic discourses, infused with neo-liberal economic assumptions that promise progress and benefits for all. Crucial in this is the mass media’s representation of biotechnology for an audience with poor scientific literacy. Yet, even apparently benign biotechnology spawned by the Human Genome Project such as prenatal screening has eugenic possibilities, and genetic codes for illness are eagerly sought by insurance companies seeking to exclude certain people. These issues raise important questions about a citizenship that is founded on moral responsibility for the wellbeing of society now and into the future. After all, biotechnology is very much concerned with the essence of life itself. This book provides a space for alternative and dissident voices beyond the hype that surrounds biotechnology.

Hypercapitalism : an investigation into the relationship between language, new media, and social perceptions of value

Overall, this thesis purports to make two significant contributions to knowledge. The first is a foundational critique of political economy in the context of an emergent global knowledge economy. The second is a method for analysing evaluations in language. The relationships that give coherence to those two contributions are as follows. The widely-heralded emergence of a knowledge economy indicates that more intimate aspects of human activity have become exposed to commodification on a massive scale, specifically, activities associated with thought and language. Correspondingly, more abstract forms of value have developed as the products of thought and language have become dominant commodity forms. Historical investigation shows that value has moved from an objective category in political economy, pertaining to such substances as precious metals and land, to become situated today predominantly in “expert” expressions of language, or more precisely, their institutional contexts of production. These are now propagated and circulated on a global scale. Legal, political, and technological developments are key in the development of new, more abstract forms of labour and value, although the relationships connecting these are neither simple nor direct. They are, however, inseparably related in the trajectories that this thesis describes. Consequently they are dealt with inseparably throughout.

News blogs and citizen journalism : new directions for e-journalism

Even for a casual observer of the journalistic industry it is becoming difficult to escape the conclusion that journalism is entering a time of crisis. At the same time that revenues and readerships for traditional publications from newspapers to broadcast news are declining, journalistic content is being overtaken by a flotilla of alternative options ranging from the news satire of The Daily Show in the United States to the citizen journalism of South Korea’s OhmyNews and a myriad of other news blogs and citizen journalism Websites. Worse still, such new competitors with the products of the journalism industry frequently take professional journalists themselves to task where their standards have appeared to have slipped, and are beginning to match the news industry’s incumbents in terms of insight and informational value: recent studies have shown, for example, that avid Daily Show viewers are as if not better informed about the U.S. political process as those who continue to follow mainstream print or television news (see e.g. Fox et al., 2007). The show’s host Jon Stewart – who has consistently maintained his self-description as a comedian, not a journalist – even took the fight directly to the mainstream with his appearance on CNN’s belligerent talk show Crossfire, repeatedly making the point that the show’s polarised and polarising ‘left vs. right’ format was “hurting” politics in America (the show disappeared from CNN’s line-up a few months after Stewart’s appearance; Stewart, 2004). Similarly, news bloggers and citizen journalists have shown persistence and determination both in uncovering political and other scandals, and in highlighting the shortcomings of professional journalism as it investigates and reports on such scandals.

A cross cultural examination of consumer behaviour and GM food products : results from Australian and South Korean female consumers

The call for the cross cultural examination and validation of commonly accepted relationships within consumer behaviour is strengthening. Consequently, this paper seeks to address this call by examining consumer risk perceptions, reliance on country of origin information and willingness to buy Genetically Modified (GM) food products on Australian and South Korean consumers. Findings indicate a number of cross cultural similarities and differences that have both theoretical and practical implications.

Willingness to buy GM food products : the role of uncertainty orientation, consumer risk perceptions and information search in consumers from Australia

Genetically modified (GM) food products are the source of much controversy and in the context of consumer behaviour, the way in which consumers perceive such food products is of paramount importance both theoretically and practically. Despite this, relatively little research has focused on GM food products from a consumer perspective, and as such, this study seeks to better understand what effects consumer willingness to buy GM food products in Australian consumers.

Sustainable futures : the new design landscape

Design talks LOUDLY!!! Is a series of interactive presentations exploring issues and opportunities involving professional design. These seminars are organised by the Industrial Design Network Queensland (IDnetQLD) in coordination with the Design Institute of Australia (DIA). This event was held at the State Library of Queensland (SLQ) with invited public presentations by a panel of industry experts from Brisbane City Council, Sims Recycling Solutions and BEST Futures. The second seminar "Sustainable Futures: The New Design Landscape" highlighted to design professionals the positive effect the design industry can achieve in moving towards a sustainable future. A series of presentations from specialist speakers outlined the new generation of design and how design can surf the sustainable shift. A product’s journey from concept to creation and a life beyond was presented and discussed as a basis of designing for sustainability. The intent of the seminar was to inject a brand new sense of purpose into the design world through inspiring designers to find solutions which move forward into this new sustainable landscape.

Using a design led disruptive innovation approach to develop new services : practising innovation in times of discontinuity

Organisations face increasing competition from new firms in emerging markets and their past superior products may no longer provide competitive advantage in markets based on different cost and value differentials. A shift in design practices from product solutions to health services which are accessible and affordable by all is required. This paper explores a design led approach to innovation to assist medical device companies develop new services and experiences and reshape their notions of the nature, development and deployment of health care services. This approach uses design tools and methodologies that are grounded in the authentic understandings of stakeholder experiences, to assist an organisation create a vision of likely future health care scenarios. Through this process, organisations can explore the complexities in the delivery of future health care services in new and emerging markets allowing them to tailor product and service solutions which focus on being accessible and affordable by all. The industry based case study for the design of health services in carried out in emerging economies. The contribution of this work in advancing research into design innovation and future research directions are also presented.

New media services : ratings and recommendations websites in the travel and tourism industry

The travel and hospitality industry is one which relies especially crucially on word of mouth, both at the level of overall destinations (Australia, Queensland, Brisbane) and at the level of travellers’ individual choices of hotels, restaurants, sights during their trips. The provision of such word-of-mouth information has been revolutionised over the past decade by the rise of community-based Websites which allow their users to share information about their past and future trips and advise one another on what to do or what to avoid during their travels. Indeed, the impact of such user-generated reviews, ratings, and recommendations sites has been such that established commercial travel advisory publishers such as Lonely Planet have experienced a pronounced downturn in sales ¬– unless they have managed to develop their own ways of incorporating user feedback and contributions into their publications. This report examines the overall significance of ratings and recommendation sites to the travel industry, and explores the community, structural, and business models of a selection of relevant ratings and recommendations sites. We identify a range of approaches which are appropriate to the respective target markets and business aims of these organisations, and conclude that there remain significant opportunities for further operators especially if they aim to cater for communities which are not yet appropriately served by specific existing sites. Additionally, we also point to the increasing importance of connecting stand-alone ratings and recommendations sites with general social media spaces like Facebook, Twitter, and LinkedIn, and of providing mobile interfaces which enable users to provide updates and ratings directly from the locations they happen to be visiting. In this report, we profile the following sites: * TripAdvisor, the international market leader for travel ratings and recommendations sites, with a membership of some 11 million users; * IgoUgo, the other leading site in this field, which aims to distinguish itself from the market leader by emphasising the quality of its content; * Zagat, a long-established publisher of restaurant guides which has translated its crowdsourcing model from the offline to the online world; * Lonely Planet’s Thorn Tree site, which attempts to respond to the rise of these travel communities by similarly harnessing user-generated content; * Stayz, which attempts to enhance its accommodation search and booking services by incorporating ratings and reviews functionality; and * BigVillage, an Australian-based site attempting to cater for a particularly discerning niche of travellers; * Dopplr, which connects travel and social networking in a bid to pursue the lucrative market of frequent and business travellers; * Foursquare, which builds on its mobile application to generate a steady stream of ‘check-ins’ and recommendations for hospitality and other services around the world; * Suite 101, which uses a revenue-sharing model to encourage freelance writers to contribute travel writing (amongst other genres of writing); * Yelp, the global leader in general user-generated product review and recommendation services. In combination, these profiles provide an overview of current developments in the travel ratings and recommendations space (and beyond), and offer an outlook for further possibilities. While no doubt affected by the global financial downturn and the reduction in travel that it has caused, travel ratings and recommendations remain important – perhaps even more so if a reduction in disposable income has resulted in consumers becoming more critical and discerning. The aggregated word of mouth from many tens of thousands of travellers which these sites provide certainly has a substantial influence on their users. Using these sites to research travel options has now become an activity which has spread well beyond the digirati. The same is true also for many other consumer industries, especially where there is a significant variety of different products available – and so, this report may also be read as a case study whose findings are able to be translated, mutatis mutandis, to purchasing decisions from household goods through consumer electronics to automobiles.

Review of Apple iPad news applications : new media service

The launch of the Apple iPad on January 2010 has seen considerable interest from the newspaper and publishing industry in developing content and business models for the tablet PC device that can address the limits of both the print and online news and information media products. It is early days in the iPad’s evolution, and we wait to see what competitor devices will emerge in the near future. It is apparent, however, that it has become a significant “niche” product, with considerable potential for mass market expansion over the next few years, possibly at the expense of netbook sales. The scope for the iPad and tablet PCs to become a “fourth screen” for users, alongside the TV, PC and mobile phone, is in early stages of evolution. The study used five criteria to assess iPad apps: • Content: timeliness; archive; personalisation; content depth; advertisements; the use of multimedia; and the extent to which the content was in sync with the provider brand. • Useability: degree of static content; ability to control multimedia; file size; page clutter; resolution; signposts; and customisation. • Interactivity: hyperlinks; ability to contribute content or provide feedback to news items; depth of multimedia; search function; ability to use plug-ins and linking; ability to highlight, rate and/or save items; functions that may facilitate a community of users. • Transactions capabilities: ecommerce functionality; purchase and download process; user privacy and transaction security. • Openness: degree of linking to outside sources; reader contribution processes; anonymity measures; and application code ownership.

Distinguishing forced versus discretionary replacements in new product diffusion models

In many product categories of durable goods such as TV, PC, and DVD player, the largest component of sales is generated by consumers replacing existing units. Aggregate sales models proposed by diffusion of innovation researchers for the replacement component of sales have incorporated several different replacement distributions such as Rayleigh, Weibull, Truncated Normal and Gamma. Although these alternative replacement distributions have been tested using both time series sales data and individual-level actuarial “life-tables” of replacement ages, there is no census on which distributions are more appropriate to model replacement behaviour. In the current study we are motivated to develop a new “modified gamma” distribution by two reasons. First we recognise that replacements have two fundamentally different drivers – those forced by failure and early, discretionary replacements. The replacement distribution for each of these drivers is expected to be quite different. Second, we observed a poor fit of other distributions to out empirical data. We conducted a survey of 8,077 households to empirically examine models of replacement sales for six electronic consumer durables – TVs, VCRs, DVD players, digital cameras, personal and notebook computers. This data allows us to construct individual-level “life-tables” for replacement ages. We demonstrate the new modified gamma model fits the empirical data better than existing models for all six products using both a primary and a hold-out sample.

Strategic technology management : case study development in innovative building products

National and international competition demands that Australian organisations become more competent at making the strategic technological decisions that impact their future in the international business economy. A new subject unit, Management of Technology is now offered in the popular Master of Project Management and Master of Business Administration programs at the Queensland University of Technology. This cross-disciplinary subject provides students with a theoretical foundation and practical tools to improve the efficiency and competitiveness of technically-oriented organisations. Applied case studies—shown to be the most appropriate mode of learning for mature-age students—form an integral component of the teaching program. In the first offerings of this subject during 1995 and 1996, American case studies were used. QUT has now supported the development of Australian case study packages for technology management through its Teaching and Learning Grants Scheme. The first case developed—Inland Oil Refiners’ Microstill Project—was completed in early 1996. A newly developed case—Automated Door Opening System for Wheelchair Access—is currently being completed. This case (comprising case study documentation and video presentation) tracks a cross-disciplinary product development driven by legislative and community pressures. It also reinforces the importance of personal relationships in the technology and business development that has taken this young Brisbane-based company from its embryonic beginnings on the Queensland Cultural Centre in 1994 to a national and export-focussed organisation in 1997. This paper reviews the need to develop Australian case material in Management of Technology, discusses the case study documentation and supporting video developed, and application of the case study approach in this teaching initiative in QUT’s Master of Project Management and Master of Business Administration programs.

New variational Bayesian approaches for statistical data mining : with applications to profiling and differentiating habitual consumption behaviour of customers in the wireless telecommunication industry

This thesis investigates profiling and differentiating customers through the use of statistical data mining techniques. The business application of our work centres on examining individuals’ seldomly studied yet critical consumption behaviour over an extensive time period within the context of the wireless telecommunication industry; consumption behaviour (as oppose to purchasing behaviour) is behaviour that has been performed so frequently that it become habitual and involves minimal intentions or decision making. Key variables investigated are the activity initialised timestamp and cell tower location as well as the activity type and usage quantity (e.g., voice call with duration in seconds); and the research focuses are on customers’ spatial and temporal usage behaviour. The main methodological emphasis is on the development of clustering models based on Gaussian mixture models (GMMs) which are fitted with the use of the recently developed variational Bayesian (VB) method. VB is an efficient deterministic alternative to the popular but computationally demandingMarkov chainMonte Carlo (MCMC) methods. The standard VBGMMalgorithm is extended by allowing component splitting such that it is robust to initial parameter choices and can automatically and efficiently determine the number of components. The new algorithm we propose allows more effective modelling of individuals’ highly heterogeneous and spiky spatial usage behaviour, or more generally human mobility patterns; the term spiky describes data patterns with large areas of low probability mixed with small areas of high probability. Customers are then characterised and segmented based on the fitted GMM which corresponds to how each of them uses the products/services spatially in their daily lives; this is essentially their likely lifestyle and occupational traits. Other significant research contributions include fitting GMMs using VB to circular data i.e., the temporal usage behaviour, and developing clustering algorithms suitable for high dimensional data based on the use of VB-GMM.