Efficient simulation of a Tandem Jackson Network

The two-node tandem Jackson network serves as a convenient reference model for the analysis and testing of different methodologies and techniques in rare event simulation. In this paper we consider a new approach to efficiently estimate the probability that the content of the second buffer exceeds some high level L before it becomes empty, starting from a given state. The approach is based on a Markov additive process representation of the buffer processes, leading to an exponential change of measure to be used in an importance sampling procedure. Unlike changes of measures proposed and studied in recent literature, the one derived here is a function of the content of the first buffer. We prove that when the first buffer is finite, this method yields asymptotically efficient simulation for any set of arrival and service rates. In fact, the relative error is bounded independent of the level L; a new result which is not established for any other known method. When the first buffer is infinite, we propose a natural extension of the exponential change of measure for the finite buffer case. In this case, the relative error is shown to be bounded (independent of L) only when the second server is the bottleneck; a result which is known to hold for some other methods derived through large deviations analysis. When the first server is the bottleneck, experimental results using our method seem to suggest that the relative error is bounded linearly in L.

Resources for security and stability? The politics of regional cooperation on the Mekong, 1957-2001

This article tells about the relationship between resource politics and security in international relations. Using the Mekong River Basin as its case study, the article examines the place of resource and development issues in attempts to develop regional institutions. The question of whether a resource development regime with apparently low productivity in terms of technical output, but high levels of resilience and longevity, should be considered a failure or not, is considered. This question is examined within the broader context of Southeast Asian politics during the First, Second, and Third Indochina conflicts as well as the post-cold war era. The article argues that survival and a capacity to change to meet the challenges of extreme broader events are clear evidence of regime success. From this standpoint, the article explores ways in which the Mekong resource regime is linked to more general concerns for political security and stability and may in fact reflect political concerns for subregional neighborhood maintenance.

Syntactic and pragmatic constraints on processing relative clauses

Thc oen itninteureasc ttioo nb eo fa pcreangtmraal tiiscs uaen di ns ymnotadcetlisc ocfo nsestnrtaeinnctse processing. It is well established that object relatives (1) are harder to process than subject relatives (2). Passivization, other things being equal, increases sentence complexity. However, one of the functions of the passive construction is to promote an NP into the role of subject so that it can be more easily bound to the head NP in a higher clause. Thus, (3) is predicted to be marginally preferred over (1). Passiviazation in this instance may be seen as a way of avoiding the object relative construction. 1. The pipe that the traveller smoked annoyed the passengers. 2. The traveller that smoked the pipe annoyed the passengers. 3.The pipe that was smoked by the traveller annoyed the 4.The traveller that the pipe was smoked by annoyed the 5.The traveller that the lady was assaulted by annoyed the In (4) we have relativization of an NP which has been demoted by passivization to the status of a by-phrase. Such relative clauses may only be obtained under quite restrictive pragmatic conditions. Many languages do not permit relativization of a constituent as low as a by-phrase on the NP accessibility hierarchy (Comrie, 1984). The factors which determine the acceptability of demoted NP relatives like (4-5) reflect the ease with which the NP promoted to subject position can be taken as a discourse topic. We explored the acceptability of sentences such as (1-5) using pair-wise judgements of samddifferent meaning, accompanied by ratings of easeof understanding. Results are discussed with reference to Gibsons DLT model of linguistic complexity and sentence processing (Gibson, 2000)

'The utility of human security': Which humans? What security? A reply to Thomas & Tow

Thomas & Tow's evaluation of the utility of human security is an important contribution to an ongoing debate about what security is and for whom security should be provided. In particular, the authors' engagement with the human security agenda is important given the centrality of this approach to recent attempts to rethink security. This article argues, however, that Thomas & Tow's approach to the human security agenda is problematic for two central reasons. First, their attempt to narrow security to make this approach amenable to state policymakers risks reifying the sources of insecurity for individuals everywhere. Second, the conception of human security they put forward appears largely inconsistent with the normative concerns inherent in the human security agenda.

Fluid-mobile trace element constraints on the role of slab melting and implications for Archaean crustal growth models

We use published and new trace element data to identify element ratios which discriminate between arc magmas from the supra-subduction zone mantle wedge and those formed by direct melting of subducted crust (i.e. adakites). The clearest distinction is obtained with those element ratios which are strongly fractionated during refertilisation of the depleted mantle wedge, ultimately reflecting slab dehydration. Hence, adakites have significantly lower Pb/Nd and B/Be but higher Nb/Ta than typical arc magmas and continental crust as a whole. Although Li and Be are also overenriched in continental crust, behaviour of Li/Yb and Be/Nd is more complex and these ratios do not provide unique signatures of slab melting. Archaean tonalite-trondhjemite-granodiorites (TTGs) strongly resemble ordinary mantle wedge-derived arc magmas in terms of fluid-mobile trace element content, implying that they-did not form by slab melting but that they originated from mantle which was hydrated and enriched in elements lost from slabs during prograde dehydration. We suggest that Archaean TTGs formed by extensive fractional crystallisation from a mafic precursor. It is widely claimed that the time between the creation and subduction of oceanic lithosphere was significantly shorter in the Archaean (i.e. 20 Ma) than it is today. This difference was seen as an attractive explanation for the presumed preponderance of adakitic magmas during the first half of Earth's history. However, when we consider the effects of a higher potential mantle temperature on the thickness of oceanic crust, it follows that the mean age of oceanic lithosphere has remained virtually constant. Formation of adakites has therefore always depended on local plate geometry and not on potential mantle temperature.

Use of liquid phase adsorption for characterizing pore network connectivity in activated carbon

A simple percolation theory-based method for determination of the pore network connectivity using liquid phase adsorption isotherm data combined with a density functional theory (DFT)-based pore size distribution is presented in this article. The liquid phase adsorption experiments have been performed using eight different esters as adsorbates and microporous-mesoporous activated carbons Filtrasorb-400, Norit ROW 0.8 and Norit ROX 0.8 as adsorbents. The density functional theory (DFT)-based pore size distributions of the carbons were obtained using DFT analysis of argon adsorption data. The mean micropore network coordination numbers, Z, of the carbons were determined based on DR characteristic plots and fitted saturation capacities using percolation theory. Based on this method, the critical molecular sizes of the model compounds used in this study were also obtained. The incorporation of percolation concepts in the prediction of multicomponent adsorption equilibria is also investigated, and found to improve the performance of the ideal adsorbed solution theory (IAST) model for the large molecules utilized in this study. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Nuclear weapons as obstacles to international security

This article argues that nuclear weapons serve no useful purpose in military calculations; moreover, their continued retention invites the dangers of further proliferation and of accidental use. They are thus defined here as obstacles to, rather than as facilitators of, international security. Seven reasons are presented to support this contention, including an assessment of the moral implications and the strategic limitations of nuclear weapons. Despite these limitations, and the recent commitments made by the nuclear weapon states to eliminate their arsenals, nuclear weapons remain central to the strategic doctrines of these states. Several reasons are put forward to explain why this retention continues, including the unchanging nature of strategic mindsets, the presence of vested interests, and now, in the case of the USA at least, a renewed reliance on nuclear weapons, regardless of how appropriate and effective such a strategy might be against emerging terrorist or `rogue state' threats.

Genetic constraints on the evolution of mate recognition under natural selection

Field populations of Drosophila serrata display reproductive character displacement in cuticular hydrocarbons (CHCs) when sympatric with Drosophila birchii. We have previously shown that the naturally occurring pattern of reproductive character displacement can be experimentally replicated by exposing field allopatric populations of D. serrata to experimental sympatry with D. birchii. Here, we tested whether the repeated evolution of reproductive character displacement in natural and experimental populations was a consequence of genetic constraints on the evolution of CHCs. The genetic variance-covariance (G) matrices for CHCs were determined for populations of D. serrata that had evolved in either the presence or absence of D. birchii under field and experimental conditions. Natural selection on mate recognition under both field and experimental sympatric conditions increased the genetic variance in CHCs consistent with a response to selection based on rare alleles. A close association between G eigenstructure and the eigenstructure of the phenotypic divergence (D) matrix in natural and experimental populations suggested that G matrix eigenstructure may have determined the direction in which reproductive character displacement evolved during the reinforcement of mate recognition.

Segmenting the market of West Australian senior tourists using an artificial neural network

Measuring perceptions of customers can be a major problem for marketers of tourism and travel services. Much of the problem is to determine which attributes carry most weight in the purchasing decision. Older travellers weigh many travel features before making their travel decisions. This paper presents a descriptive analysis of neural network methodology and provides a research technique that assesses the weighting of different attributes and uses an unsupervised neural network model to describe a consumer-product relationship. The development of this rich class of models was inspired by the neural architecture of the human brain. These models mathematically emulate the neurophysical structure and decision making of the human brain, and, from a statistical perspective, are closely related to generalised linear models. Artificial neural networks or neural networks are, however, nonlinear and do not require the same restrictive assumptions about the relationship between the independent variables and dependent variables. Using neural networks is one way to determine what trade-offs older travellers make as they decide their travel plans. The sample of this study is from a syndicated data source of 200 valid cases from Western Australia. From senior groups, active learner, relaxed family body, careful participants and elementary vacation were identified and discussed. (C) 2003 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd.

Impulse-response function of splanchnic circulation with model-independent constraints: theory and experimental validation

Modeling physiological processes using tracer kinetic methods requires knowledge of the time course of the tracer concentration in blood supplying the organ. For liver studies, however, inaccessibility of the portal vein makes direct measurement of the hepatic dual-input function impossible in humans. We want to develop a method to predict the portal venous time-activity curve from measurements of an arterial time-activity curve. An impulse-response function based on a continuous distribution of washout constants is developed and validated for the gut. Experiments with simultaneous blood sampling in aorta and portal vein were made in 13 anesthetized pigs following inhalation of intravascular [O-15] CO or injections of diffusible 3-O[ C-11] methylglucose (MG). The parameters of the impulse-response function have a physiological interpretation in terms of the distribution of washout constants and are mathematically equivalent to the mean transit time ( T) and standard deviation of transit times. The results include estimates of mean transit times from the aorta to the portal vein in pigs: (T) over bar = 0.35 +/- 0.05 min for CO and 1.7 +/- 0.1 min for MG. The prediction of the portal venous time-activity curve benefits from constraining the regression fits by parameters estimated independently. This is strong evidence for the physiological relevance of the impulse-response function, which includes asymptotically, and thereby justifies kinetically, a useful and simple power law. Similarity between our parameter estimates in pigs and parameter estimates in normal humans suggests that the proposed model can be adapted for use in humans.