877 resultados para Multiple priors and posteriors
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The volume presents planktological and chemical data collected during cruise No. 51 of RV "Meteor" to the equatorial Atlantic (FGGE '79) from February to June 1979. A standard section along the meridian 22° W across the equator was sampled ten times between 2° S and 3° N. Together with a temperature and salinity profile, concentrations of oxygen, nutrients and chlorophyll a were analyzed in water samples down to a depth of 250 m. Solar radiation and light depths were measured for determination of primary productivity of the euphotic zone according to the simulated in situ method. Zooplankton biomass was estimated in 5 depth intervals down to 300 m by means of a multiple opening and closing net equipped with a mesh size of 100 µm.
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We report results from boron, carbon and oxygen stable isotope analyses of faulted and veined rocks recovered by scientific ocean drilling during ODP Leg 180 in the western Woodlark Basin, off Papua New Guinea. In this area of active continental extension, crustal break-up and incipient seafloor spreading, a shallow-dipping, seismically active detachment fault accommodates strain, defining a zone of mylonites and cataclasites, vein formation and fluid infiltration. Syntectonic microstructures and vein-fill mineralogy suggest frictional heating during slip during extension and exhumation of Moresby Seamount. Low carbon and oxygen isotope ratios of calcite veins indicate precipitation from hydrothermal fluids (delta13C PDB down to -17?; delta18O PDB down to -22?) formed by both dehydration and decarbonation. Boron contents are low (<7 ppm), indicating high-grade metamorphic source rock for the fluids. Some of the delta11B signatures (17-35?; parent solutions to calcite vein fills) are low when compared to deep-seated waters in other tectonic environments, likely reflecting preferential loss of 11B during low-grade metamorphism at depth. Pervasive devolatilization and flux of CO2-rich fluids are evident from similar vein cement geochemistry in the detachment fault zone and splays further updip. Multiple rupture-and-healing history of the veins suggests that precipitation may be an important player in fluid pressure evolution and, hence, seismogenic fault movement.
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During Ocean Drilling Program Leg 199 in the equatorial Pacific, visible and near-infrared spectroscopy (VNIS) was used to measure the reflectance spectra (350-2500 nm) of 1343 sediment samples. Reflectance spectra were also measured for a suite of 60 samples of known mineralogy, thereby providing a local ground-truth calibration of spectral features to percentages of calcite, opal, smectite, and illite. The associated algorithm was used to calculate mineral percentages from the 1343 spectra. Using multiple regression and VNIS mineralogy, multisensor track physical properties and light spectroscopy data were then converted into continuous high-resolution mineralogy logs.
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The formation of a subsurface anticyclonic eddy in the Peru-Chile Undercurrent (PCUC) in January and February 2013 is investigated using a multi-platform four-dimensional observational approach. Research vessel, multiple glider and mooring-based measurements were conducted in the Peruvian upwelling regime near 12°30'S. The dataset consists of more than 10000 glider profiles and repeated vessel-based hydrography and velocity transects. It allows a detailed description of the eddy formation and its impact on the near-coastal salinity, oxygen and nutrient distributions. In early January, a strong PCUC with maximum poleward velocities of ca. 0.25 m/s at 100 to 200 m depth was observed. Starting on January 20 a subsurface anticyclonic eddy developed in the PCUC downstream of a topographic bend, suggesting flow separation as the eddy formation mechanism. The eddy core waters exhibited oxygen concentrations less than 1mol/kg, an elevated nitrogen-deficit of ca. 17µmol/l and potential vorticity close to zero, which seemed to originate from the bottom boundary layer of the continental slope. The eddy-induced across-shelf velocities resulted in an elevated exchange of water masses between the upper continental slope and the open ocean. Small scale salinity and oxygen structures were formed by along-isopycnal stirring and indications of eddy-driven oxygen ventilation of the upper oxygen minimum zone were observed. It is concluded that mesoscale stirring of solutes and the offshore transport of eddy core properties could provide an important coastal open-ocean exchange mechanism with potentially large implications for nutrient budgets and biogeochemical cycling in the oxygen minimum zone off Peru.
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This article provides an analysis of how banks determine levels of information production when they are in imperfect competition and there is a condition of information asymmetry between borrowers and banks. Specifically, the study concentrates on information production activities of banks in duopoly where they simultaneously determine intensity of pre-loan screening as well as interest rates. The preliminary model of this paper illustrates that due to strategic complementarities between banks, banking competition can result in inferior equilibrium out of multiple equilibria and insufficient information production. Policymakers must take into account the possible adverse effects of competition-enhancing policies on information production activities.
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Since the year 2000 when the Protocol to Prevent, Suppress and Punish Trafficking in Persons, Especially Women and Children, human trafficking has been regarded as one of the egregious violations of human rights, and global efforts have been made to eradicate it. The anti-trafficking framework has multiple dimensions, and the way the anti-trafficking framework is constructed influences its impact on the victims and non-trafficked migrants. This paper will analyze the impact of the anti-trafficking framework on the experiences of Burmese victims and non-trafficked migrants in Thailand. I will question the conventional framework of anti-trafficking, and seek to construct a framework more appropriate for addressing victims' actual needs. In conclusion, the anti-trafficking framework should serve the best interest of the victim; still, it should not be one which might adversely affect the interest of the would-be victim who is not identified as a victim according to the law.
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The main objective of this work is the design and implementation of the digital control stage of a 280W AC/DC industrial power supply in a single low-cost microcontroller to replace the analog control stage. The switch-mode power supply (SMPS) consists of a PFC boost converter with fixed frequency operation and a variable frequency LLC series resonant DC/DC converter. Input voltage range is 85VRMS-550VRMS and the output voltage range is 24V-28V. A digital controller is especially suitable for this kind of SMPS to implement its multiple functionalities and to keep the efficiency and the performance high over the wide range of input voltages. Additional advantages of the digital control are reliability and size. The optimized design and implementation of the digital control stage it is presented. Experimental results show the stable operation of the controlled system and an estimation of the cost reduction achieved with the digital control stage.
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La adolescencia es un período de crecimiento y desarrollo crítico e importante para la adquisición de hábitos saludables, en los que tanto la alimentación como la actividad física tienen un papel destacado. Junto con el primer año de vida, los requerimientos de energía y nutrientes son mayores que en cualquier otro periodo. Dentro de la nutrición, las vitaminas se ven involucradas en múltiples procesos celulares y tisulares, y sus deficiencias se vinculan a enfermedades crónicas degenerativas en la edad adulta como las cardiovasculares, cáncer, diabetes y osteoporosis, pero cuyos factores de riesgo se establecen a edades más tempranas. Las concentraciones sanguíneas de vitaminas están influenciadas en gran medida por la ingesta dietética, pero existen otros factores del individuo, entre los que cabe citar la composición corporal, la actividad física y condición física que, junto a la genética, podrían desempeñar un papel crucial. La presente memoria de Tesis Doctoral tiene como objetivo analizar el estado en vitaminas liposolubles y su relación con diversos factores de salud, entre los que destacan la composción corporal, hábitos dietéticos, actividad física y condición física en adolescentes Europeos. El trabajo está basado en los datos del estudio HELENA (“Healthy Lifestyle in Europe by Nutrition in Adolescence”). Se han analizado un total de 1089 adolescentes procedentes de diez ciudades en nueve paises europeos. Los principales resultados de este trabajo indican; a) La existencia de un estado deficiente en vitaminas liposolubles en adolescentes Europeos, especialmente de vitamina D, que alcanza valores del 80%. b) La estación del año, la latitud, el índice de masa corporal, la condición física, la ingesta de calcio dietético, los suplementos vitamínicos y la edad son las variables más relacionadas con el estado de vitamina D. c) A su vez, la capacidad cardiorrespiratoria puede predecir los niveles de vitamina D en los chicos, mientras que la fuerza muscular y masa magra parecen influir en los niveles de vitamina D en las chicas. La grasa corporal y el índice de masa corporal se correlaccionan negativamente con los niveles de vitamina D, especialmente en chicos. d) Un estado de vitamina D óptimo provoca una mejora de la masa ósea sólo cuando se tiene un nivel adecuado de actividad física. e) Se identifica la necesidad de establecer un consenso sobre los rangos aceptables y puntos de corte para las concentraciones sanguíneas de estas vitaminas en este grupo de población, ya que los actuales están extrapolados de la población adulta ABSTRACT Adolescence is a critical period of physiological growth and development as well as for the acquisition of healthy behaviors where both diet and physical activity play a major role. Apart from the first year of life, both energy and nutrient requirements are greatest during adolescence and the way to spend this energy by movement is also crucial. Vitamins are specifically involved in multiple cellular and tissue processes, and there is increasing evidence that deficiencies at these early ages could contribute to risk factors of chronic diseases like cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease, cancer, diabetes and osteoporosis in adulthood, regardless data are scarce for younger ages. Vitamin concentrations are largely influenced by diet but other individual factors like body composition, physical activity or fitness together with genetics could play also an important role. The current thesis analyzes the liposoluble vitamin status in European adolescents and their relation with several health related factors, like body composción, dietary intake, physical activity and fitness. The work is based on data from the HELENA study ("Healthy Lifestyle in Europe by Nutrition in Adolescence"), for which a total of 1089 adolescents from ten different cities, in nine European countries were recruited. The main outcomes of this thesis are: a) There is a high liposoluble vitamin deficiency prevalence in European adolescents, specifically for vitamin D, which is presenting almost 80% of the adolescents. b) Season, latitude, BMI, fitness, dietary calcium intake, supplements intake and age are highly related to 25(OH)D concentrations found in European adolescents. c) Cardiorespiratory fitness may predict 25(OH)D concentrations in male adolescents, whereas upper limbs muscular strength and FFM may predict 25(OH)D concentrations in young females. Fat mass and BMI are inversely related to 25(OH)D concentrations, especially in males. d) The effect of 25(OH)D concentrations on bone mineral content in adolescents depends on physical activity levels. e) There is a need to establish a consensus on acceptable ranges and cut-offs of blood concentrations of these vitamins during adolescence, as currently they are extrapolated from adults.
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Over the last decade, Grid computing paved the way for a new level of large scale distributed systems. This infrastructure made it possible to securely and reliably take advantage of widely separated computational resources that are part of several different organizations. Resources can be incorporated to the Grid, building a theoretical virtual supercomputer. In time, cloud computing emerged as a new type of large scale distributed system, inheriting and expanding the expertise and knowledge that have been obtained so far. Some of the main characteristics of Grids naturally evolved into clouds, others were modified and adapted and others were simply discarded or postponed. Regardless of these technical specifics, both Grids and clouds together can be considered as one of the most important advances in large scale distributed computing of the past ten years; however, this step in distributed computing has came along with a completely new level of complexity. Grid and cloud management mechanisms play a key role, and correct analysis and understanding of the system behavior are needed. Large scale distributed systems must be able to self-manage, incorporating autonomic features capable of controlling and optimizing all resources and services. Traditional distributed computing management mechanisms analyze each resource separately and adjust specific parameters of each one of them. When trying to adapt the same procedures to Grid and cloud computing, the vast complexity of these systems can make this task extremely complicated. But large scale distributed systems complexity could only be a matter of perspective. It could be possible to understand the Grid or cloud behavior as a single entity, instead of a set of resources. This abstraction could provide a different understanding of the system, describing large scale behavior and global events that probably would not be detected analyzing each resource separately. In this work we define a theoretical framework that combines both ideas, multiple resources and single entity, to develop large scale distributed systems management techniques aimed at system performance optimization, increased dependability and Quality of Service (QoS). The resulting synergy could be the key 350 J. Montes et al. to address the most important difficulties of Grid and cloud management.
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Civil engineering structures such as floor systems with open-plan layout or lightweight footbridges are susceptible to excessive level of vibrations caused by human loading. Active vibration control (AVC) via inertial mass actuators has been shown to be a viable technique to mitigate vibrations, allowing structures to satisfy vibration serviceability limits. Most of the AVC applications involve the use of SISO (single input single-output) strategies based on collocated control. However, in the case of floor structures, in which mostof the vibration modes are locally spatially distributed, SISO or multi-SISO strategies are quite inefficient. In this paper, a MIMO (multi-inputs multi-outputs) control in decentralised and centralised configuration is designed. The design process simultaneously finds the placement of multiple actuators and sensors and the output feedback gains. Additionally, actuator dynamics, actuator nonlinearities and frequency and time weightings are considered into the design process. Results with SISO and decentralised and centralised MIMO control (for a given number of actuators and sensors) are compared, showing the advantages of MIMO control for floor vibration control.
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En la interacción con el entorno que nos rodea durante nuestra vida diaria (utilizar un cepillo de dientes, abrir puertas, utilizar el teléfono móvil, etc.) y en situaciones profesionales (intervenciones médicas, procesos de producción, etc.), típicamente realizamos manipulaciones avanzadas que incluyen la utilización de los dedos de ambas manos. De esta forma el desarrollo de métodos de interacción háptica multi-dedo dan lugar a interfaces hombre-máquina más naturales y realistas. No obstante, la mayoría de interfaces hápticas disponibles en el mercado están basadas en interacciones con un solo punto de contacto; esto puede ser suficiente para la exploración o palpación del entorno pero no permite la realización de tareas más avanzadas como agarres. En esta tesis, se investiga el diseño mecánico, control y aplicaciones de dispositivos hápticos modulares con capacidad de reflexión de fuerzas en los dedos índice, corazón y pulgar del usuario. El diseño mecánico de la interfaz diseñada, ha sido optimizado con funciones multi-objetivo para conseguir una baja inercia, un amplio espacio de trabajo, alta manipulabilidad y reflexión de fuerzas superiores a 3 N en el espacio de trabajo. El ancho de banda y la rigidez del dispositivo se han evaluado mediante simulación y experimentación real. Una de las áreas más importantes en el diseño de estos dispositivos es el efector final, ya que es la parte que está en contacto con el usuario. Durante este trabajo se ha diseñado un dedal de bajo peso, adaptable a diferentes usuarios que, mediante la incorporación de sensores de contacto, permite estimar fuerzas normales y tangenciales durante la interacción con entornos reales y virtuales. Para el diseño de la arquitectura de control, se estudiaron los principales requisitos para estos dispositivos. Entre estos, cabe destacar la adquisición, procesado e intercambio a través de internet de numerosas señales de control e instrumentación; la computación de equaciones matemáticas incluyendo la cinemática directa e inversa, jacobiana, algoritmos de detección de agarres, etc. Todos estos componentes deben calcularse en tiempo real garantizando una frecuencia mínima de 1 KHz. Además, se describen sistemas para manipulación de precisión virtual y remota; así como el diseño de un método denominado "desacoplo cinemático iterativo" para computar la cinemática inversa de robots y la comparación con otros métodos actuales. Para entender la importancia de la interacción multimodal, se ha llevado a cabo un estudio para comprobar qué estímulos sensoriales se correlacionan con tiempos de respuesta más rápidos y de mayor precisión. Estos experimentos se desarrollaron en colaboración con neurocientíficos del instituto Technion Israel Institute of Technology. Comparando los tiempos de respuesta en la interacción unimodal (auditiva, visual y háptica) con combinaciones bimodales y trimodales de los mismos, se demuestra que el movimiento sincronizado de los dedos para generar respuestas de agarre se basa principalmente en la percepción háptica. La ventaja en el tiempo de procesamiento de los estímulos hápticos, sugiere que los entornos virtuales que incluyen esta componente sensorial generan mejores contingencias motoras y mejoran la credibilidad de los eventos. Se concluye que, los sistemas que incluyen percepción háptica dotan a los usuarios de más tiempo en las etapas cognitivas para rellenar información de forma creativa y formar una experiencia más rica. Una aplicación interesante de los dispositivos hápticos es el diseño de nuevos simuladores que permitan entrenar habilidades manuales en el sector médico. En colaboración con fisioterapeutas de Griffith University en Australia, se desarrolló un simulador que permite realizar ejercicios de rehabilitación de la mano. Las propiedades de rigidez no lineales de la articulación metacarpofalange del dedo índice se estimaron mediante la utilización del efector final diseñado. Estos parámetros, se han implementado en un escenario que simula el comportamiento de la mano humana y que permite la interacción háptica a través de esta interfaz. Las aplicaciones potenciales de este simulador están relacionadas con entrenamiento y educación de estudiantes de fisioterapia. En esta tesis, se han desarrollado nuevos métodos que permiten el control simultáneo de robots y manos robóticas en la interacción con entornos reales. El espacio de trabajo alcanzable por el dispositivo háptico, se extiende mediante el cambio de modo de control automático entre posición y velocidad. Además, estos métodos permiten reconocer el gesto del usuario durante las primeras etapas de aproximación al objeto para su agarre. Mediante experimentos de manipulación avanzada de objetos con un manipulador y diferentes manos robóticas, se muestra que el tiempo en realizar una tarea se reduce y que el sistema permite la realización de la tarea con precisión. Este trabajo, es el resultado de una colaboración con investigadores de Harvard BioRobotics Laboratory. ABSTRACT When we interact with the environment in our daily life (using a toothbrush, opening doors, using cell-phones, etc.), or in professional situations (medical interventions, manufacturing processes, etc.) we typically perform dexterous manipulations that involve multiple fingers and palm for both hands. Therefore, multi-Finger haptic methods can provide a realistic and natural human-machine interface to enhance immersion when interacting with simulated or remote environments. Most commercial devices allow haptic interaction with only one contact point, which may be sufficient for some exploration or palpation tasks but are not enough to perform advanced object manipulations such as grasping. In this thesis, I investigate the mechanical design, control and applications of a modular haptic device that can provide force feedback to the index, thumb and middle fingers of the user. The designed mechanical device is optimized with a multi-objective design function to achieve a low inertia, a large workspace, manipulability, and force-feedback of up to 3 N within the workspace; the bandwidth and rigidity for the device is assessed through simulation and real experimentation. One of the most important areas when designing haptic devices is the end-effector, since it is in contact with the user. In this thesis the design and evaluation of a thimble-like, lightweight, user-adaptable, and cost-effective device that incorporates four contact force sensors is described. This design allows estimation of the forces applied by a user during manipulation of virtual and real objects. The design of a real-time, modular control architecture for multi-finger haptic interaction is described. Requirements for control of multi-finger haptic devices are explored. Moreover, a large number of signals have to be acquired, processed, sent over the network and mathematical computations such as device direct and inverse kinematics, jacobian, grasp detection algorithms, etc. have to be calculated in Real Time to assure the required high fidelity for the haptic interaction. The Hardware control architecture has different modules and consists of an FPGA for the low-level controller and a RT controller for managing all the complex calculations (jacobian, kinematics, etc.); this provides a compact and scalable solution for the required high computation capabilities assuring a correct frequency rate for the control loop of 1 kHz. A set-up for dexterous virtual and real manipulation is described. Moreover, a new algorithm named the iterative kinematic decoupling method was implemented to solve the inverse kinematics of a robotic manipulator. In order to understand the importance of multi-modal interaction including haptics, a subject study was carried out to look for sensory stimuli that correlate with fast response time and enhanced accuracy. This experiment was carried out in collaboration with neuro-scientists from Technion Israel Institute of Technology. By comparing the grasping response times in unimodal (auditory, visual, and haptic) events with the response times in events with bimodal and trimodal combinations. It is concluded that in grasping tasks the synchronized motion of the fingers to generate the grasping response relies on haptic cues. This processing-speed advantage of haptic cues suggests that multimodalhaptic virtual environments are superior in generating motor contingencies, enhancing the plausibility of events. Applications that include haptics provide users with more time at the cognitive stages to fill in missing information creatively and form a richer experience. A major application of haptic devices is the design of new simulators to train manual skills for the medical sector. In collaboration with physical therapists from Griffith University in Australia, we developed a simulator to allow hand rehabilitation manipulations. First, the non-linear stiffness properties of the metacarpophalangeal joint of the index finger were estimated by using the designed end-effector; these parameters are implemented in a scenario that simulates the behavior of the human hand and that allows haptic interaction through the designed haptic device. The potential application of this work is related to educational and medical training purposes. In this thesis, new methods to simultaneously control the position and orientation of a robotic manipulator and the grasp of a robotic hand when interacting with large real environments are studied. The reachable workspace is extended by automatically switching between rate and position control modes. Moreover, the human hand gesture is recognized by reading the relative movements of the index, thumb and middle fingers of the user during the early stages of the approximation-to-the-object phase and then mapped to the robotic hand actuators. These methods are validated to perform dexterous manipulation of objects with a robotic manipulator, and different robotic hands. This work is the result of a research collaboration with researchers from the Harvard BioRobotics Laboratory. The developed experiments show that the overall task time is reduced and that the developed methods allow for full dexterity and correct completion of dexterous manipulations.
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Actualmente, la escasez de agua constituye un importante problema en muchos lugares del mundo. El crecimiento de la población, la creciente necesidad de alimentos, el desarrollo socio-económico y el cambio climático ejercen una importante y cada vez mayor presión sobre los recursos hídricos, a la que muchos países van a tener que enfrentarse en los próximos anos. La región Mediterránea es una de las regiones del mundo de mayor escasez de recursos hídricos, y es además una de las zonas más vulnerables al cambio climático. La mayoría de estudios sobre cambio climático prevén mayores temperaturas y una disminución de las precipitaciones, y una creciente escasez de agua debida a la disminución de recursos disponibles y al aumento de las demandas de riego. En el contexto actual de desarrollo de políticas se demanda cada vez más una mayor consideración del cambio climático en el marco de las políticas sectoriales. Sin embargo, los estudios enfocados a un solo sector no reflejan las múltiples dimensiones del los efectos del cambio climático. Numerosos estudios científicos han demostrado que el cambio climático es un fenómeno de naturaleza multi-dimensional y cuyos efectos se transmiten a múltiples escalas. Por tanto, es necesaria la producción de estudios y herramientas de análisis capaces de reflejar todas estas dimensiones y que contribuyan a la elaboración de políticas robustas en un contexto de cambio climático. Esta investigación pretende aportar una visión global de la problemática de la escasez de agua y los impactos, la vulnerabilidad y la adaptación al cambio climático en el contexto de la región mediterránea. La investigación presenta un marco integrado de modelización que se va ampliando progresivamente en un proceso secuencial y multi-escalar en el que en cada etapa se incorpora una nueva dimensión. La investigación consta de cuatro etapas que se abordan a lo largo de cuatro capítulos. En primer lugar, se estudia la vulnerabilidad económica de las explotaciones de regadío del Medio Guadiana, en España. Para ello, se utiliza un modelo de programación matemática en combinación con un modelo econométrico. A continuación, en la segunda etapa, se utiliza un modelo hidro-económico que incluye un modelo de cultivo para analizar los procesos que tienen lugar a escala de cultivo, explotación y cuenca teniendo en cuenta distintas escalas geográficas y de toma de decisiones. Esta herramienta permite el análisis de escenarios de cambio climático y la evaluación de posibles medidas de adaptación. La tercera fase consiste en el análisis de las barreras que dificultan la aplicación de procesos de adaptación para lo cual se analizan las redes socio-institucionales en la cuenca. Finalmente, la cuarta etapa aporta una visión sobre la escasez de agua y el cambio climático a escala nacional y regional mediante el estudio de distintos escenarios de futuro plausibles y los posibles efectos de las políticas en la escasez de agua. Para este análisis se utiliza un modelo econométrico de datos de panel para la región mediterránea y un modelo hidro-económico que se aplica a los casos de estudio de España y Jordania. Los resultados del estudio ponen de relieve la importancia de considerar múltiples escalas y múltiples dimensiones en el estudio de la gestión de los recursos hídricos y la adaptación al cambio climático en los contextos mediterráneos de escasez de agua estudiados. Los resultados muestran que los impactos del cambio climático en la cuenca del Guadiana y en el conjunto de España pueden comprometer la sostenibilidad del regadío y de los ecosistemas. El análisis a escala de cuenca hidrográfica resalta la importancia de las interacciones entre los distintos usuarios del agua y en concreto entre distintas comunidades de regantes, así como la necesidad de fortalecer el papel de las instituciones y de fomentar la creación de una visión común en la cuenca para facilitar la aplicación de los procesos de adaptación. Asimismo, los resultados de este trabajo evidencian también la capacidad y el papel fundamental de las políticas para lograr un desarrollo sostenible y la adaptación al cambio climático es regiones de escasez de agua tales como la región mediterránea. Especialmente, este trabajo pone de manifiesto el potencial de la Directiva Marco del Agua de la Unión Europea para lograr una efectiva adaptación al cambio climático. Sin embargo, en Jordania, además de la adaptación al cambio climático, es preciso diseñar estrategias de desarrollo sostenible más ambiciosas que contribuyan a reducir el riesgo futuro de escasez de agua. ABSTRACT Water scarcity is becoming a major concern in many parts of the world. Population growth, increasing needs for food production, socio-economic development and climate change represent pressures on water resources that many countries around the world will have to deal in the coming years. The Mediterranean region is one of the most water scarce regions of the world and is considered a climate change hotspot. Most projections of climate change envisage an increase in temperatures and a decrease in precipitation and a resulting reduction in water resources availability as a consequence of both reduced water availability and increased irrigation demands. Current policy development processes require the integration of climate change concerns into sectoral policies. However, sector-oriented studies often fail to address all the dimensions of climate change implications. Climate change research in the last years has evidenced the need for more integrated studies and methodologies that are capable of addressing the multi-scale and multi-dimensional nature of climate change. This research attempts to provide a comprehensive view of water scarcity and climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation in Mediterranean contexts. It presents an integrated modelling framework that is progressively enlarged in a sequential multi-scale process in which a new dimension of climate change and water resources is addressed at every stage. It is comprised of four stages, each one explained in a different chapter. The first stage explores farm-level economic vulnerability in the Spanish Guadiana basin using a mathematical programming model in combination with an econometric model. Then, in a second stage, the use of a hydro-economic modelling framework that includes a crop growth model allows for the analysis of crop, farm and basin level processes taking into account different geographical and decision-making scales. This integrated tool is used for the analysis of climate change scenarios and for the assessment of potential adaptation options. The third stage includes the analysis of barriers to the effective implementation of adaptation processes based on socioinstitutional network analysis. Finally, a regional and country level perspective of water scarcity and climate change is provided focusing on different possible socio-economic development pathways and the effect of policies on future water scarcity. For this analysis, a panel-data econometric model and a hydro-economic model are applied for the analysis of the Mediterranean region and country level case studies in Spain and Jordan. The overall results of the study demonstrate the value of considering multiple scales and multiple dimensions in water management and climate change adaptation in the Mediterranean water scarce contexts analysed. Results show that climate change impacts in the Guadiana basin and in Spain may compromise the sustainability of irrigation systems and ecosystems. The analysis at the basin level highlights the prominent role of interactions between different water users and irrigation districts and the need to strengthen institutional capacity and common understanding in the basin to enhance the implementation of adaptation processes. The results of this research also illustrate the relevance of water policies in achieving sustainable development and climate change adaptation in water scarce areas such as the Mediterranean region. Specifically, the EU Water Framework Directive emerges as a powerful trigger for climate change adaptation. However, in Jordan, outreaching sustainable development strategies are required in addition to climate change adaptation to reduce future risk of water scarcity.
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One of the most important changes taking place in drylands worldwide is the increase of the cover and dominance of shrubs in areas formerly devoid of them (shrub encroachment). A large body of research has evaluated the causes and consequences of shrub encroachment for both ecosystem structure and functioning. However, there are virtually no studies evaluating how shrub encroachment affects the ability of ecosystems to maintain multiple functions and services simultaneously (multifunctionality). We aimed to do so by gathering data from ten ecosystem functions linked to the maintenance of primary production and nutrient cycling and storage (organic C, activity of β-glucosidase, pentoses, hexoses, total N, total available N, amino acids, proteins, available inorganic P, and phosphatase activity), and summarizing them in a multifunctionality index (M). We assessed how climate, species richness, anthropic factors (distance to the nearest town, sandy and asphalted road, and human population in the nearest town at several historical periods) and encroachment by sprouting shrubs impacted both the functions in isolation and M along a regional (ca. 350 km) gradient in Mediterranean grasslands and shrublands dominated by a non-sprouting shrub. Values of M were higher in those grasslands and shrublands containing sprouting shrubs (43 and 62%, respectively). A similar response was found when analyzing the different functions in isolation, as encroachment by sprouting shrubs increased functions by 2–80% compared to unencroached areas. Encroachment was the main driver of changes in M along the regional gradient evaluated, followed by anthropic factors and species richness. Climate had little effects on M in comparison to the other factors studied. Similar responses were observed when evaluating the functions in isolation. Overall, our results showed that M was higher at sites with higher sprouting shrub cover, longer distance to roads and higher perennial plant species richness. Our study is the first documenting that ecosystem multifunctionality in shrublands is enhanced by encroaching shrubs differing in size and leaf attributes. Our findings reinforce the idea that encroachment effects on ecosystem functioning cannot be generalized, and that are largely dependent on the traits of the encroaching shrub relative to those of the species being replaced.