L'area dei Lungarni di Pisa nel tardo Medioevo (XIV-XV secolo). un tentativo di ricostruzione in 3D.

Lo scopo di questa ricerca è la ricostruzione dei Lungarni di Pisa nel Tardo Medioevo (XIV-XV secolo); lo studio intende sottolineare le trasformazioni urbanistiche che hanno cambiato il volto di Pisa nel corso del tempo e ricordare che l’area fluviale ebbe un ruolo di primo piano come baricentro commerciale ed economico della città, vocazione che si è in gran parte persa con l’età moderna e contemporanea. La metodologia seguita, affinata e perfezionata durante la partecipazione al progetto Nu.M.E. (Nuovo Museo Elettronico della Città di Bologna), si basa sull’analisi e il confronto di fonti eterogenee ma complementari, che includono precedenti studi di storia dell’urbanistica, un corpus di documentazione di epoca medievale (provvedimenti amministrativi come gli Statuti del Comune di Pisa, ma anche descrizioni di cronisti e viaggiatori), fonti iconografiche, tra cui vedute e mappe cinquecentesche o successive, e fonti materiali, come le persistenze medievali ancora osservabili all’interno degli edifici ed i reperti rinvenuti durante alcune campagne di scavo archeologiche. Il modello 3D non è concepito come statico e “chiuso”, ma è liberamente esplorabile all’interno di un engine tridimensionale; tale prodotto può essere destinato a livelli di utenza diversi, che includono sia studiosi e specialisti interessati a conoscere un maggior numero di informazioni e ad approfondire la ricerca, sia semplici cittadini appassionati di storia o utenti più giovani, come studenti di scuole medie superiori e inferiori.

A Bayesian changepoint analysis on spatio-temporal point processes

Changepoint analysis is a well established area of statistical research, but in the context of spatio-temporal point processes it is as yet relatively unexplored. Some substantial differences with regard to standard changepoint analysis have to be taken into account: firstly, at every time point the datum is an irregular pattern of points; secondly, in real situations issues of spatial dependence between points and temporal dependence within time segments raise. Our motivating example consists of data concerning the monitoring and recovery of radioactive particles from Sandside beach, North of Scotland; there have been two major changes in the equipment used to detect the particles, representing known potential changepoints in the number of retrieved particles. In addition, offshore particle retrieval campaigns are believed may reduce the particle intensity onshore with an unknown temporal lag; in this latter case, the problem concerns multiple unknown changepoints. We therefore propose a Bayesian approach for detecting multiple changepoints in the intensity function of a spatio-temporal point process, allowing for spatial and temporal dependence within segments. We use Log-Gaussian Cox Processes, a very flexible class of models suitable for environmental applications that can be implemented using integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA), a computationally efficient alternative to Monte Carlo Markov Chain methods for approximating the posterior distribution of the parameters. Once the posterior curve is obtained, we propose a few methods for detecting significant change points. We present a simulation study, which consists in generating spatio-temporal point pattern series under several scenarios; the performance of the methods is assessed in terms of type I and II errors, detected changepoint locations and accuracy of the segment intensity estimates. We finally apply the above methods to the motivating dataset and find good and sensible results about the presence and quality of changes in the process.

Studio geomorfologico dell'area carsica attorno alla Grotta Palombara (Melilli, Siracusa)

The following thesis attempts to study and analyse the geomorphological evolution of a relatively small coastal area located to the North of Syracuse (Southeastern Sicily). The presently inactive Palombara Cave is located in this area. The 800 metres of passages in this cave show an evolution in some way linked to the local topographic and environmental changes. This portion of coastline was affected more or less constantly by the tectonic uplift during the Pleistocene, which simultaneously to the eustatic variations have played a key role in the genesis of the marine terraces and the cave. Starting from a DTM made from Lidar data, using a GIS procedure several marine terraces have been mapped. These informations combinated with a geomorphological study of the area, allowed to identify and recognise the different orders of the Middle Pleistocene terraced surfaces. Four orders of terraces between 180-75 m a.s.l have been observed, illustrated and described. Furthermore, two other supposed terrace edges located respectively at 60 and 35 m, which would indicate the presence of two more orders, have been recognised. All these marine terraces appear to have formed in the last million years. The morphological data of the Palombara cave, highlights a genesis related to the rising of CO2 rich waters coming from the depths through the fractures of the rock mass, that ranks it as a hypogenic cave. The development has been influenced by the changes in the water table, in turn determined by the fluctuations in the sea level. In fact, the cave shows a speleogenetic evolution characterised by phases of karstification in phreatic and epiphreatic environment and fossilization stages of the upper branches in vadose conditions. These observations indicate that the cave probably started forming around 600 Ky ago, contemporary to the start of volcanic processes in the area.

Spatio-temporal diversity of Megistozoobenthos in the Antalya Gulf and relationships with environmental features

Antalya Gulf is situated in the Levantine Sea, the second biggest and most eastern basin in the Mediterranean Sea. This area is an ultra-oligotrophic basin, strongly affected by anthropogenic inputs, in particular in the fishing areas. For this characteristic, in the Levantine Sea, there is a strong pressure on the natural resources and benthic assemblages. Furthermore, many alien species enter from Suez Canal and are well established in the area. All these pressures are leading to a degradation of the Levantine Sea. For this reason it is important to have tools to study and monitoring the functioning of the marine ecosystem. Benthic organisms are superior to many other biological groups for their response to environmental stresses. The variability of benthic assemblages on a site can reflect, in an integrative mode, the entire functioning of the marine ecosystem. In this study, that wants to analyze the spatial and temporal distribution of the benthic macrofaunal assemblages of Antalya Gulf, 90 benthic species divided in 8 taxa (Annelida, Cnidaria, Echinodermata, Echiura, Mollusca, Porifera, Sipunculida and Tunicata) were found. All the analyses conducted on the entire benthic class and later on Mollusca and Echinodermata separately highlighted the importance of depth on structuring benthic community.

Temporal changes of coronary artery plaque located behind the struts of the everolimus eluting bioresorbable vascular scaffold

Implantation of a coronary stent results in a mechanical enlargement of the coronary lumen with stretching of the surrounding atherosclerotic plaque. Using intravascular ultrasound virtual-histology (IVUS-VH) we examined the temporal changes in composition of the plaque behind the struts (PBS) following the implantation of the everolimus eluting bioresorbable vascular scaffold (BVS). Using IVUS-VH and dedicated software, the composition of plaque was analyzed in all patients from the ABSORB B trial who were imaged with a commercially available IVUS-VH console (s5i system, Volcano Corporation, Rancho Cordova, CA, USA) post-treatment and at 6-month follow-up. This dedicated software enabled analysis of the PBS after subtraction of the VH signal generated by the struts. The presence of necrotic core (NC) in contact with the lumen was also evaluated at baseline and follow-up. IVUS-VH data, recorded with s5i system, were available at baseline and 6-month follow-up in 15 patients and demonstrated an increase in both the area of PBS (2.45 ± 1.93 mm(2) vs. 3.19 ± 2.48 mm(2), P = 0.005) and the external elastic membrane area (13.76 ± 4.07 mm(2) vs. 14.76 ± 4.56 mm(2), P = 0.006). Compared to baseline there was a significant progression in the NC (0.85 ± 0.70 mm(2) vs. 1.21 ± 0.92 mm(2), P = 0.010) and fibrous tissue area (0.88 ± 0.79 mm(2) vs. 1.15 ± 1.05 mm(2), P = 0.027) of the PBS. The NC in contact with the lumen in the treated segment did not increase with follow-up (7.33 vs. 6.36%, P = 0.2). Serial IVUS-VH analysis of BVS-treated lesions at 6-month demonstrated a progression in the NC and fibrous tissue content of PBS.

Combining spatial-temporal and phylogenetic analysis approaches for improved understanding on global H5N1 transmission

Background Since late 2003, the highly pathogenic influenza A H5N1 had initiated several outbreak waves that swept across the Eurasia and Africa continents. Getting prepared for reassortment or mutation of H5N1 viruses has become a global priority. Although the spreading mechanism of H5N1 has been studied from different perspectives, its main transmission agents and spread route problems remain unsolved. Methodology/Principal Findings Based on a compilation of the time and location of global H5N1 outbreaks from November 2003 to December 2006, we report an interdisciplinary effort that combines the geospatial informatics approach with a bioinformatics approach to form an improved understanding on the transmission mechanisms of H5N1 virus. Through a spherical coordinate based analysis, which is not conventionally done in geographical analyses, we reveal obvious spatial and temporal clusters of global H5N1 cases on different scales, which we consider to be associated with two different transmission modes of H5N1 viruses. Then through an interdisciplinary study of both geographic and phylogenetic analysis, we obtain a H5N1 spreading route map. Our results provide insight on competing hypotheses as to which avian hosts are responsible for the spread of H5N1. Conclusions/Significance We found that although South China and Southeast Asia may be the virus pool of avian flu, East Siberia may be the source of the H5N1 epidemic. The concentration of migratory birds from different places increases the possibility of gene mutation. Special attention should be paid to East Siberia, Middle Siberia and South China for improved surveillance of H5N1 viruses and monitoring of migratory birds.

Association between conventional risk factors and different ultrasound-based markers of atherosclerosis at carotid and femoral levels in a middle-aged population

Ultrasound detection of sub-clinical atherosclerosis (ATS) may help identify individuals at high cardiovascular risk. Most studies evaluated intima-media thickness (IMT) at carotid level. We compared the relationships between main cardiovascular risk factors (CVRF) and five indicators of ATS (IMT, mean and maximal plaque thickness, mean and maximal plaque area) at both carotid and femoral levels. Ultrasound was performed on 496 participants aged 45-64 years randomly selected from the general population of the Republic of Seychelles. 73.4 % participants had ≥ 1 plaque (IMT thickening ≥ 1.2 mm) at carotid level and 67.5 % at femoral level. Variance (adjusted R2) contributed by age, sex and CVRF (smoking, LDL-cholesterol, HDL-cholesterol, blood pressure, diabetes) in predicting any of the ATS markers was larger at femoral than carotid level. At both carotid and femoral levels, the association between CVRF and ATS was stronger based on plaque-based markers than IMT. Our findings show that the associations between CVRF and ATS markers were stronger at femoral than carotid level, and with plaque-based markers rather than IMT. Pending comparison of these markers using harder cardiovascular endpoints, our findings suggest that markers based on plaque morphology assessed at femoral artery level might be useful cardiovascular risk predictors.

Anatomical study of the human middle ear for the design of implantable hearing aids

OBJECTIVE: To generate anatomical data on the human middle ear and adjacent structures to serve as a base for the development and optimization of new implantable hearing aid transducers. Implantable middle ear hearing aid transducers, i.e. the equivalent to the loudspeaker in conventional hearing aids, should ideally fit into the majority of adult middle ears and should utilize the limited space optimally to achieve sufficiently high maximal output levels. For several designs, more anatomical data are needed. METHODS: Twenty temporal bones of 10 formalin-fixed adult human heads were scanned by a computed tomography system (CT) using a slide thickness of 0.63 mm. Twelve landmarks were defined and 24 different distances were calculated for each temporal bone. RESULTS: A statistical description of 24 distances in the adult human middle ear which may limit or influence the design of middle ear transducers is presented. Significant inter-individual differences but no significant differences for gender, side, age or degree of pneumatization of the mastoid were found. Distances, which were not analyzed for the first time in this study, were found to be in good agreement with the results of earlier studies. CONCLUSION: A data set describing the adult human middle ear anatomy quantitatively from the point of view of designers of new implantable hearing aid transducers has been generated. In principle, the method employed in this study using standard CT scans could also be used preoperatively to rule out exclusion criteria.

Point Process Methodology for On-line Spatio-temporal Disease Surveillance

The AEGISS (Ascertainment and Enhancement of Gastrointestinal Infection Surveillance and Statistics) project aims to use spatio-temporal statistical methods to identify anomalies in the space-time distribution of non-specific, gastrointestinal infections in the UK, using the Southampton area in southern England as a test-case. In this paper, we use the AEGISS project to illustrate how spatio-temporal point process methodology can be used in the development of a rapid-response, spatial surveillance system. Current surveillance of gastroenteric disease in the UK relies on general practitioners reporting cases of suspected food-poisoning through a statutory notification scheme, voluntary laboratory reports of the isolation of gastrointestinal pathogens and standard reports of general outbreaks of infectious intestinal disease by public health and environmental health authorities. However, most statutory notifications are made only after a laboratory reports the isolation of a gastrointestinal pathogen. As a result, detection is delayed and the ability to react to an emerging outbreak is reduced. For more detailed discussion, see Diggle et al. (2003). A new and potentially valuable source of data on the incidence of non-specific gastro-enteric infections in the UK is NHS Direct, a 24-hour phone-in clinical advice service. NHS Direct data are less likely than reports by general practitioners to suffer from spatially and temporally localized inconsistencies in reporting rates. Also, reporting delays by patients are likely to be reduced, as no appointments are needed. Against this, NHS Direct data sacrifice specificity. Each call to NHS Direct is classified only according to the general pattern of reported symptoms (Cooper et al, 2003). The current paper focuses on the use of spatio-temporal statistical analysis for early detection of unexplained variation in the spatio-temporal incidence of non-specific gastroenteric symptoms, as reported to NHS Direct. Section 2 describes our statistical formulation of this problem, the nature of the available data and our approach to predictive inference. Section 3 describes the stochastic model. Section 4 gives the results of fitting the model to NHS Direct data. Section 5 shows how the model is used for spatio-temporal prediction. The paper concludes with a short discussion.

Delays in childhood immunization in a conflict area: a study from Sierra Leone during civil war

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Sierra Leone has undergone a decade of civil war from 1991 to 2001. From this period few data on immunization coverage are available, and conflict-related delays in immunization according to the Expanded Programme on Immunization (EPI) schedule have not been investigated. We aimed to study delays in childhood immunization in the context of civil war in a Sierra Leonean community. METHODS: We conducted an immunization survey in Kissy Mess-Mess in the Greater Freetown area in 1998/99 using a two-stage sampling method. Based on immunization cards and verbal history we collected data on immunization for tuberculosis, diphtheria, tetanus, pertussis, polio, and measles by age group (0-8/9-11/12-23/24-35 months). We studied differences between age groups and explored temporal associations with war-related hostilities taking place in the community. RESULTS: We included 286 children who received 1690 vaccine doses; card retention was 87%. In 243 children (85%, 95% confidence interval (CI): 80-89%) immunization was up-to-date. In 161 of these children (56%, 95%CI: 50-62%) full age-appropriate immunization was achieved; in 82 (29%, 95%CI: 24-34%) immunization was not appropriate for age. In the remaining 43 children immunization was partial in 37 (13%, 95%CI: 9-17) and absent in 6 (2%, 95%CI: 1-5). Immunization status varied across age groups. In children aged 9-11 months the proportion with age-inappropriate (delayed) immunization was higher than in other age groups suggesting an association with war-related hostilities in the community. CONCLUSION: Only about half of children under three years received full age-appropriate immunization. In children born during a period of increased hostilities, immunization was mostly inappropriate for age, but recommended immunizations were not completely abandoned. Missing or delayed immunization represents an additional threat to the health of children living in conflict areas.

Estimation of scots pine defoliation by the common pine sawfly (Diprion pini L.) using multi-temporal radar data

In 1998-2001 Finland suffered the most severe insect outbreak ever recorded, over 500,000 hectares. The outbreak was caused by the common pine sawfly (Diprion pini L.). The outbreak has continued in the study area, Palokangas, ever since. To find a good method to monitor this type of outbreaks, the purpose of this study was to examine the efficacy of multi-temporal ERS-2 and ENVISAT SAR imagery for estimating Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) defoliation. Three methods were tested: unsupervised k-means clustering, supervised linear discriminant analysis (LDA) and logistic regression. In addition, I assessed if harvested areas could be differentiated from the defoliated forest using the same methods. Two different speckle filters were used to determine the effect of filtering on the SAR imagery and subsequent results. The logistic regression performed best, producing a classification accuracy of 81.6% (kappa 0.62) with two classes (no defoliation, >20% defoliation). LDA accuracy was with two classes at best 77.7% (kappa 0.54) and k-means 72.8 (0.46). In general, the largest speckle filter, 5 x 5 image window, performed best. When additional classes were added the accuracy was usually degraded on a step-by-step basis. The results were good, but because of the restrictions in the study they should be confirmed with independent data, before full conclusions can be made that results are reliable. The restrictions include the small size field data and, thus, the problems with accuracy assessment (no separate testing data) as well as the lack of meteorological data from the imaging dates.

Spatial and temporal analysis of land cover and landscape structure change in Zagros Forests

The Zagros oak forests in Western Iran are critically important to the sustainability of the region. These forests have undergone dramatic declines in recent decades. We evaluated the utility of the non-parametric Random Forest classification algorithm for land cover classification of Zagros landscapes, and selected the best spatial and spectral predictive variables. The algorithm resulted in high overall classification accuracies (>85%) and also equivalent classification accuracies for the datasets from the three different sensors. We evaluated the associations between trends in forest area and structure with trends in socioeconomic and climatic conditions, to identify the most likely driving forces creating deforestation and landscape structure change. We used available socioeconomic (urban and rural population, and rural income), and climatic (mean annual rainfall and mean annual temperature) data for two provinces in northern Zagros. The most correlated driving force of forest area loss was urban population, and climatic variables to a lesser extent. Landscape structure changes were more closely associated with rural population. We examined the effects of scale changes on the results from spatial pattern analysis. We assessed the impacts of eight years of protection in a protected area in northern Zagros at two different scales (both grain and extent). The effects of protection on the amount and structure of forests was scale dependent. We evaluated the nature and magnitude of changes in forest area and structure over the entire Zagros region from 1972 to 2009. We divided the Zagros region in 167 Landscape Units and developed two measures— Deforestation Sensitivity (DS) and Connectivity Sensitivity (CS) — for each landscape unit as the percent of the time steps that forest area and ECA experienced a decrease of greater than 10% in either measure. A considerable loss in forest area and connectivity was detected, but no sudden (nonlinear) changes were detected at the spatial and temporal scale of the study. Connectivity loss occurred more rapidly than forest loss due to the loss of connecting patches. More connectivity was lost in southern Zagros due to climatic differences and different forms of traditional land use.

Archeological Investigations at the Big Creek Lake Site (24RA34)

In August 1977 excavation was conducted at the Big Creek Lake site -24RA34- at the outlet of the 91g Creek Lakes, Selway-Bitterroot Wilderness Area, Ravalli County, Montana. The site contained shallow, disturbed deposits and lacks any statisgraphic separation. One of these occupations was identified by a projectile point type not previously reported from the area. This was termed Big Creek Corner Notched and its temporal affiliation is not precisely known. Comparative material from Colorado and Alberta suggest either Early Archaic or Late Archaic affiliation. The occupations exemplified by Big Creek Corner Notched points and by Pelican Lake-Elko points (Late Archaic 1000 B.B – A.D. 200) were the most prevalent at the site. Less intensive occupations are by ·Middle Plains Archaic McKean points and Late Prehistoric small side notche arrow points. Microscopic analysis of tool working edges shows several of the projectile point forms were used as multi-functional implements. especially as butchering tools. Many of the types of chipped stone recovered from the site are from known sources in western Montana; indicating group movements within the eastern portion of the Intermountain region. Based on the numerous projectile points and cutting tools, the site is interpreted as a seasonally occupied base camp for hunters.

North-south palaeohydrological contrasts in the central Mediterranean during the Holocene: tentative synthesis and working hypotheses

On the basis of a multi-proxy approach and a strategy combining lacustrine and marine records along a north–south transect, data collected in the central Mediterranean within the framework of a collaborative project have led to reconstruction of high-resolution and well-dated palaeohydrological records and to assessment of their spatial and temporal coherency. Contrasting patterns of palaeohydrological changes have been evidenced in the central Mediterranean: south (north) of around 40° N of latitude, the middle part of the Holocene was characterised by lake-level maxima (minima), during an interval dated to ca. 10 300–4500 cal BP to the south and 9000–4500 cal BP to the north. Available data suggest that these contrasting palaeohydrological patterns operated throughout the Holocene, both on millennial and centennial scales. Regarding precipitation seasonality, maximum humidity in the central Mediterranean during the middle part of the Holocene was characterised by humid winters and dry summers north of ca. 40° N, and humid winters and summers south of ca. 40° N. This may explain an apparent conflict between palaeoclimatic records depending on the proxies used for reconstruction as well as the synchronous expansion of tree species taxa with contrasting climatic requirements. In addition, south of ca. 40° N, the first millennium of the Holocene was characterised by very dry climatic conditions not only in the eastern, but also in the central- and the western Mediterranean zones as reflected by low lake levels and delayed reforestation. These results suggest that, in addition to the influence of the Nile discharge reinforced by the African monsoon, the deposition of Sapropel 1 has been favoured (1) by an increase in winter precipitation in the northern Mediterranean borderlands, and (2) by an increase in winter and summer precipitation in the southern Mediterranean area. The climate reversal following the Holocene climate optimum appears to have been punctuated by two major climate changes around 7500 and 4500 cal BP. In the central Mediterranean, the Holocene palaeohydrological changes developed in response to a combination of orbital, ice-sheet and solar forcing factors. The maximum humidity interval in the south-central Mediterranean started ca. 10 300 cal BP, in correlation with the decline (1) of the possible blocking effects of the North Atlantic anticyclone linked to maximum insolation, and/or (2) of the influence of the remnant ice sheets and fresh water forcing in the North Atlantic Ocean. In the north-central Mediterranean, the lake-level minimum interval began only around 9000 cal BP when the Fennoscandian ice sheet disappeared and a prevailing positive NAO-(North Atlantic Oscillation) type circulation developed in the North Atlantic area. The major palaeohydrological oscillation around 4500–4000 cal BP may be a non-linear response to the gradual decrease in insolation, with additional key seasonal and interhemispheric changes. On a centennial scale, the successive climatic events which punctuated the entire Holocene in the central Mediterranean coincided with cooling events associated with deglacial outbursts in the North Atlantic area and decreases in solar activity during the interval 11 700–7000 cal BP, and to a possible combination of NAO-type circulation and solar forcing since ca. 7000 cal BP onwards. Thus, regarding the centennial-scale climatic oscillations, the Mediterranean Basin appears to have been strongly linked to the North Atlantic area and affected by solar activity over the entire Holocene. In addition to model experiments, a better understanding of forcing factors and past atmospheric circulation patterns behind the Holocene palaeohydrological changes in the Mediterranean area will require further investigation to establish additional high-resolution and well-dated records in selected locations around the Mediterranean Basin and in adjacent regions. Special attention should be paid to greater precision in the reconstruction, on millennial and centennial timescales, of changes in the latitudinal location of the limit between the northern and southern palaeohydrological Mediterranean sectors, depending on (1) the intensity and/or characteristics of climatic periods/oscillations (e.g. Holocene thermal maximum versus Neoglacial, as well as, for instance, the 8.2 ka event versus the 4 ka event or the Little Ice Age); and (2) on varying geographical conditions from the western to the eastern Mediterranean areas (longitudinal gradients). Finally, on the basis of projects using strategically located study sites, there is a need to explore possible influences of other general atmospheric circulation patterns than NAO, such as the East Atlantic–West Russian or North Sea–Caspian patterns, in explaining the apparent complexity of palaeoclimatic (palaeohydrological) Holocene records from the Mediterranean area.

Endoscopic temporal ventriculocisternostomy: an option for the treatment of trapped temporal horns: Report of 4 cases

Entrapment of the temporal horn is a rare form of isolated hydrocephalus. Standard treatment has not yet been established for this condition, and only a few cases have been reported in the literature. The authors reviewed their prospectively maintained database to report their experience with endoscopic temporal ventriculocisternostomy. All endoscopic operations performed in the Department of Neurosurgery at Ernst Moritz Arndt University between March 1993 and August 2012 were reviewed, and a retrospective chart review of all patients with temporal ventriculocisternostomy was performed. Four patients were identified (3 children and 1 adult). In 3 patients, the condition developed after tumor resection, and in 1 patient it developed due to postmeningitic multiloculated hydrocephalus. In 2 patients, a recurrent trapped temporal horn developed. Refenestration was successful in one of these patients, and dilation in the trigone area with a subsequent stomy of the septum pellucidum was successful in the other. In 1 patient, postoperative meningitis developed, which was treated with antibiotics. Endoscopic temporal ventriculocisternostomy is an option in the treatment of trapped temporal horns. However, more experience is required to recommend it as the treatment of choice.