Atlantic hurricanes and associated insurance loss potentials in future climate scenarios: limitations of high-resolution AGCM simulations

Potential future changes in tropical cyclone (TC) characteristics are among the more serious regional threats of global climate change. Therefore, a better understanding of how anthropogenic climate change may affect TCs and how these changes translate in socio-economic impacts is required. Here, we apply a TC detection and tracking method that was developed for ERA-40 data to time-slice experiments of two atmospheric general circulation models, namely the fifth version of the European Centre model of Hamburg model (MPI, Hamburg, Germany, T213) and the Japan Meteorological Agency/ Meteorological research Institute model (MRI, Tsukuba city, Japan, TL959). For each model, two climate simulations are available: a control simulation for present-day conditions to evaluate the model against observations, and a scenario simulation to assess future changes. The evaluation of the control simulations shows that the number of intense storms is underestimated due to the model resolution. To overcome this deficiency, simulated cyclone intensities are scaled to the best track data leading to a better representation of the TC intensities. Both models project an increased number of major hurricanes and modified trajectories in their scenario simulations. These changes have an effect on the projected loss potentials. However, these state-of-the-art models still yield contradicting results, and therefore they are not yet suitable to provide robust estimates of losses due to uncertainties in simulated hurricane intensity, location and frequency.

The effects of dexmedetomidine/remifentanil and midazolam/remifentanil on auditory-evoked potentials and electroencephalogram at light-to-moderate sedation levels in healthy subjects

Avoidance of excessively deep sedation levels is problematic in intensive care patients. Electrophysiologic monitoring may offer an approach to solving this problem. Since electroencephalogram (EEG) responses to different sedation regimens vary, we assessed electrophysiologic responses to two sedative drug regimens in 10 healthy volunteers. Dexmedetomidine/remifentanil (dex/remi group) and midazolam/remifentanil (mida/remi group) were infused 7 days apart. Each combination of medications was given at stepwise intervals to reach Ramsay scores (RS) 2, 3, and 4. Resting EEG, bispectral index (BIS), and the N100 amplitudes of long-latency auditory-evoked potentials (ERP) were recorded at each level of sedation. During dex/remi, resting EEG was characterized by a recurrent high-power low-frequency pattern which became more pronounced at deeper levels of sedation. BIS Index decreased uniformly in only the dex/remi group (from 94 +/- 3 at baseline to 58 +/- 14 at RS 4) compared to the mida/remi group (from 94 +/- 2 to 76 +/- 10; P = 0.029 between groups). The ERP amplitudes decreased from 5.3 +/- 1.3 at baseline to 0.4 +/- 1.1 at RS 4 (P = 0.003) in only the mida/remi group. We conclude that ERPs in volunteers sedated with dex/remi, in contrast to mida/remi, indicate a cortical response to acoustic stimuli, even when sedation reaches deeper levels. Consequently, ERP can monitor sedation with midazolam but not with dexmedetomidine. The reverse is true for BIS.

Sex Differences in Semantic Processing: Event-Related Brain Potentials Distinguish between Lower and Higher Order Semantic Analysis during Word Reading

Behavioral studies suggest that women and men differ in the strategic elaboration of verbally encoded information especially in the absence of external task demand. However, measuring such covert processing requires other than behavioral data. The present study used event-related potentials to compare sexes in lower and higher order semantic processing during the passive reading of semantically related and unrelated word pairs. Women and men showed the same early context effect in the P1-N1 transition period. This finding indicates that the initial lexical-semantic access is similar in men and women. In contrast, sexes differed in higher order semantic processing. Women showed an earlier and longer lasting context effect in the N400 accompanied by larger signal strength in temporal networks similarly recruited by men and women. The results suggest that women spontaneously conduct a deeper semantic analysis. This leads to faster processing of related words in the active neural networks as reflected in a shorter stability of the N400 map in women. Taken together, the findings demonstrate that there is a selective sex difference in the controlled semantic analysis during passive word reading that is not reflected in different functional organization but in the depth of processing.

Modeling multilevel sleep transitional data via Poisson log-linear multilevel models

This paper proposes Poisson log-linear multilevel models to investigate population variability in sleep state transition rates. We specifically propose a Bayesian Poisson regression model that is more flexible, scalable to larger studies, and easily fit than other attempts in the literature. We further use hierarchical random effects to account for pairings of individuals and repeated measures within those individuals, as comparing diseased to non-diseased subjects while minimizing bias is of epidemiologic importance. We estimate essentially non-parametric piecewise constant hazards and smooth them, and allow for time varying covariates and segment of the night comparisons. The Bayesian Poisson regression is justified through a re-derivation of a classical algebraic likelihood equivalence of Poisson regression with a log(time) offset and survival regression assuming piecewise constant hazards. This relationship allows us to synthesize two methods currently used to analyze sleep transition phenomena: stratified multi-state proportional hazards models and log-linear models with GEE for transition counts. An example data set from the Sleep Heart Health Study is analyzed.

Multilead quantitative electroencephalogram profile and cognitive evoked potentials (P300) in healthy subjects after a single dose of olanzapine

RATIONALE: Olanzapine is an atypical antipsychotic drug with a more favourable safety profile than typical antipsychotics with a hitherto unknown topographic quantitative electroencephalogram (QEEG) profile. OBJECTIVES: We investigated electrical brain activity (QEEG and cognitive event related potentials, ERPs) in healthy subjects who received olanzapine. METHODS: Vigilance-controlled, 19-channel EEG and ERP in an auditory odd-ball paradigm were recorded before and 3 h, 6 h and 9 h after administration of either a single dose of placebo or olanzapine (2.5 mg and 5 mg) in ten healthy subjects. QEEG was analysed by spectral analysis and evaluated in nine frequency bands. For the P300 component in the odd-ball ERP, the amplitude and latency was analysed. Statistical effects were tested using a repeated-measurement analysis of variance. RESULTS: For the interaction between time and treatment, significant effects were observed for theta, alpha-2, beta-2 and beta-4 frequency bands. The amplitude of the activity in the theta band increased most significantly 6 h after the 5-mg administration of olanzapine. A pronounced decrease of the alpha-2 activity especially 9 h after 5 mg olanzapine administration could be observed. In most beta frequency bands, and most significantly in the beta-4 band, a dose-dependent decrease of the activity beginning 6 h after drug administration was demonstrated. Topographic effects could be observed for the beta-2 band (occipital decrease) and a tendency for the alpha-2 band (frontal increase and occipital decrease), both indicating a frontal shift of brain electrical activity. There were no significant changes in P300 amplitude or latency after drug administration. Conclusion: QEEG alterations after olanzapine administration were similar to EEG effects gained by other atypical antipsychotic drugs, such as clozapine. The increase of theta activity is comparable to the frequency distribution observed for thymoleptics or antipsychotics for which treatment-emergent somnolence is commonly observed, whereas the decrease of beta activity observed after olanzapine administration is not characteristic for these drugs. There were no clear signs for an increased cerebral excitability after a single-dose administration of 2.5 mg and 5 mg olanzapine in healthy controls.

Application of well log tomography to the Dundee and Rogers City Limestones, Michigan Basin, USA

The Michigan Basin is located in the upper Midwest region of the United States and is centered geographically over the Lower Peninsula of Michigan. It is filled primarily with Paleozoic carbonates and clastics, overlying Precambrian basement rocks and covered by Pleistocene glacial drift. In Michigan, more than 46,000 wells have been drilled in the basin, many producing significant quantities of oil and gas since the 1920s in addition to providing a wealth of data for subsurface visualization. Well log tomography, formerly log-curve amplitude slicing, is a visualization method recently developed at Michigan Technological University to correlate subsurface data by utilizing the high vertical resolution of well log curves. The well log tomography method was first successfully applied to the Middle Devonian Traverse Group within the Michigan Basin using gamma ray log curves. The purpose of this study is to prepare a digital data set for the Middle Devonian Dundee and Rogers City Limestones, apply the well log tomography method to this data and from this application, interpret paleogeographic trends in the natural radioactivity. Both the Dundee and Rogers City intervals directly underlie the Traverse Group and combined are the most prolific reservoir within the Michigan Basin. Differences between this study and the Traverse Group include increased well control and “slicing” of a more uniform lithology. Gamma ray log curves for the Dundee and Rogers City Limestones were obtained from 295 vertical wells distributed over the Lower Peninsula of Michigan, converted to Log ASCII Standard files, and input into the well log tomography program. The “slicing” contour results indicate that during the formation of the Dundee and Rogers City intervals, carbonates and evaporites with low natural radioactive signatures on gamma ray logs were deposited. This contrasts the higher gamma ray amplitudes from siliciclastic deltas that cyclically entered the basin during Traverse Group deposition. Additionally, a subtle north-south, low natural radioactive trend in the center of the basin may correlate with previously published Dundee facies tracts. Prominent trends associated with the distribution of limestone and dolomite are not observed because the regional range of gamma ray values for both carbonates are equivalent in the Michigan Basin and additional log curves are needed to separate these lithologies.

Meta-analysis in medical research: potentials and limitations

Meta-analysis, the statistical combination of results from several studies to produce a single estimate of a treatment effect or size of an association, continues to attract controversy. We illustrate and discuss the promises and limitations of meta-analysis. Meta-analysis of clinical trials can prevent delays in the introduction of effective treatments or lead to the timely identification of adverse effects. However, meta-analyses are liable to numerous biases, both at the level of the individual study and the selection of studies for inclusion in meta-analysis. The biases and confounding factors that threaten the validity of individual studies will also affect meta-analyses of observational studies. We argue that meta-analyses should only be performed within the framework of systematic reviews that have been prepared using methods that minimize bias and address the combinability of studies.