Using Africa’s protected area network to estimate the global population of a threatened and declining species: a case study of the critically endangered White-headed Vulture Trigonoceps occipitalis

The White-headed Vulture Trigonoceps occipitalis (WhV) is uncommon and largely restricted to protected areas across its range in sub-Saharan Africa. We used the World Database on Protected Areas to identify protected areas (PAs) likely to contain White-headed Vultures. Vulture occurrence on road transects in Southern, East, and West Africa was adjusted to nests per km2 using data from areas with known numbers of nests and corresponding road transect data. Nest density was used to calculate the number of WhV nests within identified PAs and from there extrapolated to estimate the global population. Across a fragmented range, 400 PAs are estimated to contain 1893 WhV nests. Eastern Africa is estimated to contain 721 nests, Central Africa 548 nests, Southern Africa 468 nests, and West Africa 156 nests. Including immature and nonbreeding birds, and accounting for data deficient PAs, the estimated global population is 5475 - 5493 birds. The identified distribution highlights are alarming: over 78% (n = 313) of identified PAs contain fewer than five nests. A further 17% (n = 68) of PAs contain 5 - 20 nests and 4% (n = 14) of identified PAs are estimated to contain >20 nests. Just 1% (n = 5) of PAs are estimated to contain >40 nests; none is located in West Africa. Whilst ranging behavior of WhVs is currently unknown, 35% of PAs large enough to hold >20 nests are isolated by more than 100 km from other PAs. Spatially discrete and unpredictable mortality events such as poisoning pose major threats to small localized vulture populations and will accelerate ongoing local extinctions. Apart from reducing the threat of poisoning events, conservation actions promoting linkages between protected areas should be pursued. Identifying potential areas for assisted re-establishment via translocation offers the potential to expand the range of this species and alleviate risk.

Continental and global scale flood forecasting systems

Floods are the most frequent of natural disasters, affecting millions of people across the globe every year. The anticipation and forecasting of floods at the global scale is crucial to preparing for severe events and providing early awareness where local flood models and warning services may not exist. As numerical weather prediction models continue to improve, operational centres are increasingly using the meteorological output from these to drive hydrological models, creating hydrometeorological systems capable of forecasting river flow and flood events at much longer lead times than has previously been possible. Furthermore, developments in, for example, modelling capabilities, data and resources in recent years have made it possible to produce global scale flood forecasting systems. In this paper, the current state of operational large scale flood forecasting is discussed, including probabilistic forecasting of floods using ensemble prediction systems. Six state-of-the-art operational large scale flood forecasting systems are reviewed, describing similarities and differences in their approaches to forecasting floods at the global and continental scale. Currently, operational systems have the capability to produce coarse-scale discharge forecasts in the medium-range and disseminate forecasts and, in some cases, early warning products, in real time across the globe, in support of national forecasting capabilities. With improvements in seasonal weather forecasting, future advances may include more seamless hydrological forecasting at the global scale, alongside a move towards multi-model forecasts and grand ensemble techniques, responding to the requirement of developing multi-hazard early warning systems for disaster risk reduction.

The role of local atmospheric forcing on the modulation of the ocean mixed layer depth in reanalysis and a coupled single column ocean model

The role of the local atmospheric forcing on the ocean mixed layer depth (MLD) over the global oceans is studied using ocean reanalysis data products and a single-column ocean model coupled to an atmospheric general circulation model. The focus of this study is on how the annual mean and the seasonal cycle of the MLD relate to various forcing characteristics in different parts of the world's ocean, and how anomalous variations in the monthly mean MLD relate to anomalous atmospheric forcings. By analysing both ocean reanalysis data and the single-column ocean model, regions with different dominant forcings and different mean and variability characteristics of the MLD can be identified. Many of the global oceans' MLD characteristics appear to be directly linked to different atmospheric forcing characteristics at different locations. Here, heating and wind-stress are identified as the main drivers; in some, mostly coastal, regions the atmospheric salinity forcing also contributes. The annual mean MLD is more closely related to the annual mean wind-stress and the MLD seasonality is more closely to the seasonality in heating. The single-column ocean model, however, also points out that the MLD characteristics over most global ocean regions, and in particular the tropics and subtropics, cannot be maintained by local atmospheric forcings only, but are also a result of ocean dynamics that are not simulated in a single-column ocean model. Thus, lateral ocean dynamics are essentially in correctly simulating observed MLD.

Similarities in butterfly emergence dates among populations suggest local adaptation to climate

Phenology shifts are the most widely cited examples of the biological impact of climate change, yet there are few assessments of potential effects on the fitness of individual organisms or the persistence of populations. Despite extensive evidence of climate-driven advances in phenological events over recent decades, comparable patterns across species' geographic ranges have seldom been described. Even fewer studies have quantified concurrent spatial gradients and temporal trends between phenology and climate. Here we analyse a large data set (~129 000 phenology measures) over 37 years across the UK to provide the first phylogenetic comparative analysis of the relative roles of plasticity and local adaptation in generating spatial and temporal patterns in butterfly mean flight dates. Although populations of all species exhibit a plastic response to temperature, with adult emergence dates earlier in warmer years by an average of 6.4 days per °C, among-population differences are significantly lower on average, at 4.3 days per °C. Emergence dates of most species are more synchronised over their geographic range than is predicted by their relationship between mean flight date and temperature over time, suggesting local adaptation. Biological traits of species only weakly explained the variation in differences between space-temperature and time-temperature phenological responses, suggesting that multiple mechanisms may operate to maintain local adaptation. As niche models assume constant relationships between occurrence and environmental conditions across a species' entire range, an important implication of the temperature-mediated local adaptation detected here is that populations of insects are much more sensitive to future climate changes than current projections suggest.

Local star formation triggered by supernova shocks in magnetized diffuse neutral clouds

In this work, considering the impact of a supernova remnant (SNR) with a neutral magnetized cloud we derived analytically a set of conditions that are favourable for driving gravitational instability in the cloud and thus star formation. Using these conditions, we have built diagrams of the SNR radius, R(SNR), versus the initial cloud density, n(c), that constrain a domain in the parameter space where star formation is allowed. This work is an extension to previous study performed without considering magnetic fields (Melioli et al. 2006, hereafter Paper I). The diagrams are also tested with fully three-dimensional MHD radiative cooling simulations involving a SNR and a self-gravitating cloud and we find that the numerical analysis is consistent with the results predicted by the diagrams. While the inclusion of a homogeneous magnetic field approximately perpendicular to the impact velocity of the SNR with an intensity similar to 1 mu G within the cloud results only a small shrinking of the star formation zone in the diagram relative to that without magnetic field, a larger magnetic field (similar to 10 mu G) causes a significant shrinking, as expected. Though derived from simple analytical considerations these diagrams provide a useful tool for identifying sites where star formation could be triggered by the impact of a supernova blast wave. Applications of them to a few regions of our own Galaxy (e.g. the large CO shell in the direction of Cassiopeia, and the Edge Cloud 2 in the direction of the Scorpious constellation) have revealed that star formation in those sites could have been triggered by shock waves from SNRs for specific values of the initial neutral cloud density and the SNR radius. Finally, we have evaluated the effective star formation efficiency for this sort of interaction and found that it is generally smaller than the observed values in our own Galaxy (SFE similar to 0.01-0.3). This result is consistent with previous work in the literature and also suggests that the mechanism presently investigated, though very powerful to drive structure formation, supersonic turbulence and eventually, local star formation, does not seem to be sufficient to drive global star formation in normal star-forming galaxies, not even when the magnetic field in the neutral clouds is neglected.

Genetic algorithm inversion of the average 1D crustal structure using local and regional earthquakes

Knowing the best 1D model of the crustal and upper mantle structure is useful not only for routine hypocenter determination, but also for linearized joint inversions of hypocenters and 3D crustal structure, where a good choice of the initial model can be very important. Here, we tested the combination of a simple GA inversion with the widely used HYPO71 program to find the best three-layer model (upper crust, lower crust, and upper mantle) by minimizing the overall P- and S-arrival residuals, using local and regional earthquakes in two areas of the Brazilian shield. Results from the Tocantins Province (Central Brazil) and the southern border of the Sao Francisco craton (SE Brazil) indicated an average crustal thickness of 38 and 43 km, respectively, consistent with previous estimates from receiver functions and seismic refraction lines. The GA + HYPO71 inversion produced correct Vp/Vs ratios (1.73 and 1.71, respectively), as expected from Wadati diagrams. Tests with synthetic data showed that the method is robust for the crustal thickness, Pn velocity, and Vp/Vs ratio when using events with distance up to about 400 km, despite the small number of events available (7 and 22, respectively). The velocities of the upper and lower crusts, however, are less well constrained. Interestingly, in the Tocantins Province, the GA + HYPO71 inversion showed a secondary solution (local minimum) for the average crustal thickness, besides the global minimum solution, which was caused by the existence of two distinct domains in the Central Brazil with very different crustal thicknesses. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Clustering and diffusion in a symplectic map lattice with non-local coupling

We study a symplectic chain with a non-local form of coupling by means of a standard map lattice where the interaction strength decreases with the lattice distance as a power-law, in Such a way that one can pass continuously from a local (nearest-neighbor) to a global (mean-field) type of coupling. We investigate the formation of map clusters, or spatially coherent structures generated by the system dynamics. Such clusters are found to be related to stickiness of chaotic phase-space trajectories near periodic island remnants, and also to the behavior of the diffusion coefficient. An approximate two-dimensional map is derived to explain some of the features of this connection. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A scenario for torus T(2) destruction via a global bifurcation

We show a scenario of a two-frequeney torus breakdown, in which a global bifurcation occurs due to the collision of a quasi-periodic torus T(2) with saddle points, creating a heteroclinic saddle connection. We analyze the geometry of this torus-saddle collision by showing the local dynamics and the invariant manifolds (global dynamics) of the saddle points. Moreover, we present detailed evidences of a heteroclinic saddle-focus orbit responsible for the type-if intermittency induced by this global bifurcation. We also characterize this transition to chaos by measuring the Lyapunov exponents and the scaling laws. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Optimization Of Groundwater Remediation With New Efficient Parallel Algorithm For Global Optimization

Application of optimization algorithm to PDE modeling groundwater remediation can greatly reduce remediation cost. However, groundwater remediation analysis requires a computational expensive simulation, therefore, effective parallel optimization could potentially greatly reduce computational expense. The optimization algorithm used in this research is Parallel Stochastic radial basis function. This is designed for global optimization of computationally expensive functions with multiple local optima and it does not require derivatives. In each iteration of the algorithm, an RBF is updated based on all the evaluated points in order to approximate expensive function. Then the new RBF surface is used to generate the next set of points, which will be distributed to multiple processors for evaluation. The criteria of selection of next function evaluation points are estimated function value and distance from all the points known. Algorithms created for serial computing are not necessarily efficient in parallel so Parallel Stochastic RBF is different algorithm from its serial ancestor. The application for two Groundwater Superfund Remediation sites, Umatilla Chemical Depot, and Former Blaine Naval Ammunition Depot. In the study, the formulation adopted treats pumping rates as decision variables in order to remove plume of contaminated groundwater. Groundwater flow and contamination transport is simulated with MODFLOW-MT3DMS. For both problems, computation takes a large amount of CPU time, especially for Blaine problem, which requires nearly fifty minutes for a simulation for a single set of decision variables. Thus, efficient algorithm and powerful computing resource are essential in both cases. The results are discussed in terms of parallel computing metrics i.e. speedup and efficiency. We find that with use of up to 24 parallel processors, the results of the parallel Stochastic RBF algorithm are excellent with speed up efficiencies close to or exceeding 100%.

Análise das variáveis organizacionais do comportamento de compra das grandes empresas industriais do Rio Grande do Sul

Compreender o comportamento de compra das organizações é um importante desafio, tanto para os meios acadêmicos quanto empresariais, não apenas pela abrangência e complexidade do tema, mas também pelos volumes de negócios envolvidos entre empresas. Com o intuito de contribuir com o aprofundamento dos conhecimentos atinentes ao assunto, o presente estudo objetivou descrever as variáveis organizacionais referentes ao comportamento de compra das grandes empresas industriais associadas à Federação das Indústrias do Estado do Rio Grande do Sul. Foram pesquisadas 82 organizações com mais de 500 funcionários e analisados seus comportamentos relativos à compra de itens considerados "A" de estoque e utilizados diretamente em seus processos produtivos. Buscou-se verificar a utilização da tecnologia como forma de otimização de processos, o nível de prúfissionalização dos funcionários dos departamentos, a fonnalização e centralização empregadas nas atividades de compras, as principais políticas, regras e procedimentos da área, a participação da mesma em decisões consideradas de alto nível relativas a fontes de suprimentos e a predominância de atividades estratégicas ou operacionais no funcionamento dos setores de compras. Visou-se também identificar a existência de associações entre tais aspectos e o tamanho das empresas. Verificou-se que as empresas preocupam-se com o investimento em recursos para os setores de compras, através do oferecimento de treinamentos a seus funcionários e da disponibilização de tecnologias para a otimização de rotinas. Constatou-se também que as organizações são, em geral, bastante formalizadas e centralizadas, e que o comprador dispõe de pouca autonomia. Com relação às políticas relativas a fontes de fornecimento, observou-se que a maioria das empresas pratica a terceirização de seus processos produtivos e possui relacionamentos mais estreitos com seus fornecedores, sem entretanto, limitar-se a uma base local de suprimento, pois reconhecem e adquirem insumos de acordo com as alternativas globais. Identificou-se ainda a prevalência de atividades operacionais em relação às estratégicas no funcionamento dos setores de aquisição pesquisados. Com relação ao tamanho das organizações, foi possível constatar que as maiores tendem a oferecer mais treinamentos a seus profissionais de compras, possuem mais recursos tecnológicos alocados a estes setores, mais comumente estabelecem relacionamentos de longo prazo com os fornecedores e importam componentes.

Trade and poverty in latin american countries: conceptual and methodological challenges

This paper addresses topics - either relevant or confusing or needing more attention - related to measuring the trade and poverty nexus. It sheds a critical light on the existing material and suggests needed research lines. It starts with questions akin to the LAC realities; then, keeping this view, general methodological issues are also examined. In a broader perspective, further ideas for the research agenda are formulated. The main conclusion is that relevant findings still demand considerable efforts. Moreover, the Information-measurement-model-evaluation paradigm is not enough, policy guidelines being usually too general. In LAC, it must be extended and deepened, accounting more for the heterogeneity of cases, including, whenever possible, the physical constraints and incorporating new ways of integrating both the local and global perspectives. Other aspects, like the role of specific juridical measures, should play a role. How all this can be combined into more encompassing evaluations remains open

O global e o contextual no aprendizado gerencial de multinacionais: uma perspectiva brasileira

The major purpose of this thesis is to verify, from a Brazilian perspective, how global and contextual issues influence the management learning in Multinationals. The management learning derived from the interaction of holding and sidiaries/colligates of Multinational corporation is supposed to be subject to convergent and divergent forces, the former related to global and standardized organizational practices, and the latter, is seen as a social practice subject to cultural and organizational singularities. A model was constructed to relate the dichotomy between the universality of the management practices and technologies and the particularity of the contexts where they operate, to the dichotomy between the singularities in organization and national level. This model is composed of the international, global, managerial and inter-organizational dimensions related, respectively, to the cultural and political diversity; to the universal forces of practices and values; to the managerial capabilities and resources in the organization, consolidated as best practices and to the interaction between holding and subsidiaries and the resulted learning. The combined result of these dimensions influences the knowledge flow and the learning derived from it. The field research was constituted of five cases of internationalized Brazilian firms, with a solid experience in their management systems. The main subjects of this study were executives and ofessionals/managers who respond to the management development. The data were first collected in the headquarters and complemented with visits to subsidiaries/joint ventures in other countries, in loco or with expatriated people who return to Brazil. The central supposition was validated. So, the management learning ¿ is driven by the global capitalism practices and by the global culture where they are immersed, reproducing a hegemonic vision and a common language (global dimension); ¿ incorporates the more propagated and dominant managerial values, although there are some variations when they are applied in the subsidiaries/joint ventures; is the product of the assimilation of international recognized and planned managerial practices, with the acculturation power, although not completely; is the result mainly of the managerial practice in work; is impacted not only by cross-cultural and managerial factors, but also by the business environment of the firm; is given according to the capabilities and resources in the organization, guiding the form of assimilation of practices and technologies, with global application or not (managerial dimension); ¿ is affected by the cross-cultural diversity involving the countries of the holding and the subsidiaries/joint ventures where the firm is and is given as a reproduction of the political context of the holding and subsidiaries countries (international dimension); ¿ faces aligned concurrent institutional pressures between corporate or global systems, practices of other subsidiaries/joint ventures and local practices; is more difficult to reach when there is not permeability between organizational cultures and identities of a Multinational firm; is affected by how much the relationship process across these unities is self-referenced; is facilitated by the construction and improvement of the knowledge network (interorganizational dimension). Finally some contributions of this study are exposed, including extensions of the proposed model and suggestions, recommendations for future research.

"Marketing glocal": marketing global com estratégias locais como vantagem competitiva de mercado

The objective of this dissertation is to explore and deeply study the concepts about Glocal Marketing, explaining this recent phenomenon, highlighting the importance and the influence of local culture on the marketing mix of global organizations, in order to have successful commercialization of their products and services in different markets. Searching for a better understanding of Glocal Marketing became extremely important in the XXI Century, since there is an increase in the number of global companies which want to explore new markets in order to survive and remain in the highly competitive market. Concepts of Globalization, Marketing, Glocal Marketing, Culture are defined and explored. Also, the influence of culture on consumer behavior and on the marketing mix of global organizations is analyzed. The Hofstede¿s cultural typology is explained and it is used to give the reader an overview and a better understanding about the cultural influence in the acceptance of new products in new markets. The relationship between culture and marketing mix is discussed, as well as the importance of standardization versus customization of the marketing mix among countries with high cultural differences. The methodology is composed by descriptive research and a case study about a global organization, the Coca-Cola Company. Therefore, this dissertation aims to show and exemplify how the Coca-Cola Company applies glocal strategies on its marketing mix as a way to establish a competitive advantage in the market.

Deregulation and The 2007-2008 Housing/Debt Crisis Analysis of the Housing/Debt Crisis of 2007-2008 and its impact on the Financial Strength and Vulnerability of the United States and Global Economy

One looming question has persisted in the minds of economists the world over in the aftermath of the 2007-2008 American Housing and Debt Crisis: How did it begin and who is responsible for making this happen? Another two-part question is: What measures were implemented to help end the crisis and what changes are being implemented to ensure that it will never happen again? Many speculate that the major contributing factor was the repeal of the Glass-Steagall Act in 1999 that prompted a virtual feeding frenzy among the banking community when new calls from Capitol Hill encouraged home ownership in America as well as the secondary mortgage market which skyrocketed thereafter. The Glass-Steagall Act will be among many of the topics explored in this paper along with the events leading up to the 2007-2008 housing/debt crisis as well as the aftermath.

A qualitative study of the internationalization of born-global technology start-ups in Brazil

O fenômeno das empresas born globals e a internacionalização de empresas brasileiras de base tecnológica são tópicos recentes na literatura acadêmica, devido também ao fenômeno ser recente. Não existem muitos estudados feitos com foco no mercado brasileiro, e os poucos que foram feitos, possuem um viés quantitativo. Esse estudo, entretanto, tem como objetivo analisar startups de maneira qualitativa. Uma extensa revisão de literatura foi desenvolvida a fim de melhor analisar as fundações nas quais o estudo seria desenvolvido, revisando os métodos de internacionalização, empreendedorismo no Brasil, e o fenômeno born global no geral. Entrevistas foram conduzidas com empreendedores no Brasil, que passaram pelo processo de internacionalização de seus modelos de negócios, a fim de reunir introspecções a respeito das peculiaridades do mercado brasileiro. Foram também analisados os fatores de escalabilidade de modelos de negócios dependentes de tecnologia, motivadores para a internacionalização, critério de seleção de mercados, programas governamentais, e o papel das startups brasileiras em uma perspectiva global.