Anatomy of the portuguese stock market risk and return in the 1977-2012 period

This paper analyses the Portuguese stock market since it reopened in 1977, with a special focus on the evolution of the statistic and stochastic characteristics of the market return throughout this 36 year period. The market return for the period of time between 1977 and 2012 (September 28th) is estimated and then compared with the return that would have been achieved with Government bonds and treasury bills, which allows us to confirm that the hierarchy of return / risk across the different financial instruments is verified. The market risk premium for this 36 year period is also estimated and a comparison with other markets is performed, suggesting that the Portuguese market’s risk has not been compensated by an adequate return. The study also examines the evolution of the Portuguese market’s volatility in the 1977-2012 period and compares it with other markets, showing the existence of extremely high peaks during the first 11 years, but indicating a downwards trend throughout the whole period under analysis. Finally, the correlation between market returns for Portugal and for other countries and the degree of integration are estimated and their evolution throughout time is assessed, leading to the conclusion that the performance of the Portuguese stock market has become increasingly correlated with major European markets – correlation with some markets close to 0.70 from 2000 onwards-, but that country-specific risk factors are still relevant.

The consumption of beauty products on famale young adults in Portugal. Recommenrations for the brand Lancôme to improve its store trafic

This project aims to explore the Portuguese Beauty and Cosmetics market, and to discuss the usage and purchase behaviour of young female adults, between 18 and 26 years old. After a market analysis based on secondary data, it evaluates the results of qualitative and quantitative research based on 9 interviews and 126 online questionnaires to explore the consumers’ reasoning when choosing products from this category – fragrances, skin care or make-up – as well as their attitude towards brands, with a special focus on the premium cosmetics brand Lancôme. Contrary to our expectations there was no statistically significant positive influence of the online touchpoints within this age segment’s purchase intention. However, results indicate that Lancôme is already being perceived by some as young and modern, but is still suffering the threat of Mass Market brands that are valued by this target, mainly due to a price sensitivity towards premium beauty brands.

Innovative medicines in the portuguese private health sector

The present dissertation aims at contributing to a strategic view over the use of innovative medicines in the portuguese private health sector, as a way of being complementary to public system that nowadays finances most of the innovative medicines. With the rationalization of expenses in the public health sector, pharmaceutical companies tend to look for opportunities of expansion to the private sector. The creation of innovative financial models for the private sector to cover innovative treatments is the proposed way of surpassing the restriction on the NHS sales of innovative medicines. This can be both for differentiating private health providers from the NHS or for the creation of premium services that can be differentiated from other private providers of the portuguese market.

Three essays on the psychology of investment and financial markets

Préface My thesis consists of three essays where I consider equilibrium asset prices and investment strategies when the market is likely to experience crashes and possibly sharp windfalls. Although each part is written as an independent and self contained article, the papers share a common behavioral approach in representing investors preferences regarding to extremal returns. Investors utility is defined over their relative performance rather than over their final wealth position, a method first proposed by Markowitz (1952b) and by Kahneman and Tversky (1979), that I extend to incorporate preferences over extremal outcomes. With the failure of the traditional expected utility models in reproducing the observed stylized features of financial markets, the Prospect theory of Kahneman and Tversky (1979) offered the first significant alternative to the expected utility paradigm by considering that people focus on gains and losses rather than on final positions. Under this setting, Barberis, Huang, and Santos (2000) and McQueen and Vorkink (2004) were able to build a representative agent optimization model which solution reproduced some of the observed risk premium and excess volatility. The research in behavioral finance is relatively new and its potential still to explore. The three essays composing my thesis propose to use and extend this setting to study investors behavior and investment strategies in a market where crashes and sharp windfalls are likely to occur. In the first paper, the preferences of a representative agent, relative to time varying positive and negative extremal thresholds are modelled and estimated. A new utility function that conciliates between expected utility maximization and tail-related performance measures is proposed. The model estimation shows that the representative agent preferences reveals a significant level of crash aversion and lottery-pursuit. Assuming a single risky asset economy the proposed specification is able to reproduce some of the distributional features exhibited by financial return series. The second part proposes and illustrates a preference-based asset allocation model taking into account investors crash aversion. Using the skewed t distribution, optimal allocations are characterized as a resulting tradeoff between the distribution four moments. The specification highlights the preference for odd moments and the aversion for even moments. Qualitatively, optimal portfolios are analyzed in terms of firm characteristics and in a setting that reflects real-time asset allocation, a systematic over-performance is obtained compared to the aggregate stock market. Finally, in my third article, dynamic option-based investment strategies are derived and illustrated for investors presenting downside loss aversion. The problem is solved in closed form when the stock market exhibits stochastic volatility and jumps. The specification of downside loss averse utility functions allows corresponding terminal wealth profiles to be expressed as options on the stochastic discount factor contingent on the loss aversion level. Therefore dynamic strategies reduce to the replicating portfolio using exchange traded and well selected options, and the risky stock.

Evaluation of Machine Learning Classifiers for Mobile Network Intrusion Detection Systems

Mobile malwares are increasing with the growing number of Mobile users. Mobile malwares can perform several operations which lead to cybersecurity threats such as, stealing financial or personal information, installing malicious applications, sending premium SMS, creating backdoors, keylogging and crypto-ransomware attacks. Knowing the fact that there are many illegitimate Applications available on the App stores, most of the mobile users remain careless about the security of their Mobile devices and become the potential victim of these threats. Previous studies have shown that not every antivirus is capable of detecting all the threats; due to the fact that Mobile malwares use advance techniques to avoid detection. A Network-based IDS at the operator side will bring an extra layer of security to the subscribers and can detect many advanced threats by analyzing their traffic patterns. Machine Learning(ML) will provide the ability to these systems to detect unknown threats for which signatures are not yet known. This research is focused on the evaluation of Machine Learning classifiers in Network-based Intrusion detection systems for Mobile Networks. In this study, different techniques of Network-based intrusion detection with their advantages, disadvantages and state of the art in Hybrid solutions are discussed. Finally, a ML based NIDS is proposed which will work as a subsystem, to Network-based IDS deployed by Mobile Operators, that can help in detecting unknown threats and reducing false positives. In this research, several ML classifiers were implemented and evaluated. This study is focused on Android-based malwares, as Android is the most popular OS among users, hence most targeted by cyber criminals. Supervised ML algorithms based classifiers were built using the dataset which contained the labeled instances of relevant features. These features were extracted from the traffic generated by samples of several malware families and benign applications. These classifiers were able to detect malicious traffic patterns with the TPR upto 99.6% during Cross-validation test. Also, several experiments were conducted to detect unknown malware traffic and to detect false positives. These classifiers were able to detect unknown threats with the Accuracy of 97.5%. These classifiers could be integrated with current NIDS', which use signatures, statistical or knowledge-based techniques to detect malicious traffic. Technique to integrate the output from ML classifier with traditional NIDS is discussed and proposed for future work.

Stock market reactions to changes in the FTSE SmallCap and S&P/TSX SmallCap indices

Stocks added to (deleted from) the Russell 2000 and the S&P 600 indexes experience positive (negative) abnormal returns following the announcement. However, researchers disagree on whether these abnormal returns are permanent or temporary and offer competing explanations. I address this controversy by examining market reactions for firms that are added to or deleted from the FTSE Small Cap index (the main testing sample) and the S&P/TSX SmallCap index (the comparison sample). For the main testing sample, all stocks except pure additions, experience a permanent price change that is accompanied by a permanent change in liquidity. However, for the comparison sample, abnormal returns over the announcement period fully reverted within 30 days. In further examination of stock liquidity for the main testing sample, sample stocks experience permanent change in liquidity. Taken together, the observed results support the price pressure and liquidity hypotheses.

Bright’s Wines Limited fonds, 1983-1989

One of the oldest wineries in Ontario, Bright’s Wines is now a part of Vincor International Inc. and still producing wines today. In the year 1874 Thomas G. Bright and Francis A. Shirriff came together in a partnership and formed a wine company in Toronto, Ontario. As the company began to prosper the gentlemen decided to move the location to Niagara, Ontario. Sixteen years later the Niagara Falls Wine Company opened on Dorchester Road. In 1911, Bright bought out all of Shirriff’s shares in the company and the name became the T. G. Bright and Co. Limited. A few years later in 1933 Harry C. Hatch bought the wine company from the Bright family and began changing how Bright’s operated through greater, more diverse wine production, as well as research and development. Bright’s leadership in wine research and development in Canada helped bring Canadian wines to their position of respect around the world. In 1934 Bright’s began a viticultural and vinicultural program, changing the way the Canadian wine industry worked. They put more money into research and development than any other winery in all of Canada. Soon, gold medals and “best of class” international designations were being awarded to Bright’s wines. As a result of their success, the founders soon discovered that they needed additional money to develop their business. So they borrowed money from a local bank and other lenders, or creditors, and used the funds to expand the business. Subsequent acquisition of other companies and consolidations in the wine industry led to the creation of Vincor International in 1993. Today, Vincor has established itself as a major participant in the North American super-premium wine market. By acquiring other companies, Vincor has fuelled growth in its sales from $114 million in 1995 to $654 million in 2005. The company’s success attracted the attention of its competitors. On September 27, 2005, Constellation Brands, Inc. announced its intention to buy Vincor and subsequently acquired the company in June 2006.

Using GPS, GIS & remote sensing to understand Niagara Terroir

The focus of this study was to detennine whether soil texture and composition variables were related to vine water status and both yield components and grape composition, and whether multispectral high definition airborne imagery could be used to segregate zones in vineyards to target fruit of highest quality for premium winemaking. The study took place on a 10-ha commercial Riesling vineyard at Thirty Bench Winemakers, in Beamsville (Ontario). Results showed that Soil moisture and leaf'l' were temporally stable and related to berry composition and remotely-sensed data. Remote-sensing, through the calculation of vegetation indices, was particularly useful to predict vine vigor, yield, fruit maturity as well as berry monoterpene concentration; it could also clearly assist in making wines that are more representative ofthe cultivar used, and also wines that are a reflection of a specific terroir, since calculated vegetation indices were highly correlated to typical Riesling.

The information content of Canadian implied volatility indexes

For predicting future volatility, empirical studies find mixed results regarding two issues: (1) whether model free implied volatility has more information content than Black-Scholes model-based implied volatility; (2) whether implied volatility outperforms historical volatilities. In this thesis, we address these two issues using the Canadian financial data. First, we examine the information content and forecasting power between VIXC - a model free implied volatility, and MVX - a model-based implied volatility. The GARCH in-sample test indicates that VIXC subsumes all information that is reflected in MVX. The out-of-sample examination indicates that VIXC is superior to MVX for predicting the next 1-, 5-, 10-, and 22-trading days' realized volatility. Second, we investigate the predictive power between VIXC and alternative volatility forecasts derived from historical index prices. We find that for time horizons lesser than 10-trading days, VIXC provides more accurate forecasts. However, for longer time horizons, the historical volatilities, particularly the random walk, provide better forecasts. We conclude that VIXC cannot incorporate all information contained in historical index prices for predicting future volatility.

Market reactions to changes in the Nasdaq-100 Index membership

We examine stock market reactions around the Nasdaq-100 Index reconstitutions. We find a symmetric and transitory price response accompanied by a significant increase in trading volume on the effective date. Firms added to the Nasdaq-100 Index experience significant increases in institutional ownership, the number of market makers, and the number of shareholders. In contrast, firms removed from the index show significant decreases in the number of institutional shareholders. Additions to the Nasdaq-100 Index also show significant increases in four liquidity measures, whereas deletions demonstrate significant decreases in two liquidity measures. These changes in liquidity are related to the abnormal return on the announcement day. Taken together, the results suggest support for the price pressure, liquidity, and investor awareness hypotheses.

Royal Insurance Company Receipt - 1884

A receipt for Royal Insurance Company British and Foreign, dated 12 April 1884. The receipt reads" Royal Insurance Company British and Foreign Assets: Upwards of $27,000,000 No. 133848 Grimsby Agency, April 12th 1884 Received from Mrs. Adolphus Nelles the sum of Ten Dollars, being the premium for an Insurance against Loss or Damage by Fire, effected with this Company, to the extent of $1200.00 on Property described in Application of this date, for 36 months, subject to the "Statutory" Conditions (endorsed hereon) of the Policy which will be issued within Thirty Days unless the Application is declined within that period, in which case the amount received will be refunded, less the Premium for the time so insured. Premium $9.00 this receipt not valid unless countersigned by N.V. Hare Sub-Agt. Countersigned by David McLellan Agent.

Donald Ziraldo Fonds, 1968-2012, n.d.

Donald J. P. Ziraldo, C.M., BSc., LLD was born in St. Catharines, Ontario on October 13, 1948 to Fredrick and Irma (Schiratti) Ziraldo. He graduated Denis Morris High School in St. Catharines in 1967, and received his B.Sc. in Agriculture at the University of Guelph in 1971. In 1974, Ziraldo was running Ziraldo Nurseries when he met Austrian born schoolteacher, chemist and winemaker Karl J. Kaiser. They realized that there was a gap in the premium varietal wine market and decided to plant a premium traditional European variety of grape vine species, the Vitis vinifera. This was an innovation in the Niagara region because the current wine producers were not using premium European grapes at the time. Ziraldo and Kaiser founded and then formally incorporated Inniskillin Wines Inc. in Niagara-on-the-Lake, Ontario on July 31, 1975. Ziraldo successfully lobbied General George Kitching, CEO of the LCBO, for a winery license. In 1975, Kitching granted him a winery license, the first in Ontario since Prohibition ended. From the beginning, there was a division of labour where Kaiser focused on the winemaking and Ziraldo focused on the marketing and promotion of the wines. Ziraldo also became president of the company. Ziraldo and Kaiser worked on improving their winemaking techniques and promoting their products and company. Ziraldo has been called ‘one of the founding fathers of the Canadian wine industry’, and it is widely acknowledged that both men played a large role in the success and growth of the Canadian wine industry. Together they pioneered the estate winery movement in Canada. A major turning point Inniskillin came in 1984 when Karl Kaiser successfully harvested the first Icewine crop from frozen grapes on the vine and bottled Eiswein Vidal (Icewine). In 1990, Inniskillin received worldwide recognition for this Icewine when their 1989 Vidal Icewine won the most prestigious award in the wine world, the Grand Prix d’Honneur, given at Vinexpo in France. This victory has been called ‘the award heard round the world’ and it launched Inniskillin into the international wine arena. At the same time, this helped lift the profile of Canadian wines in general. Inniskillin not only became Canada’s leading producer of Icewine, but it also became known for producing ‘one of the world’s great wines’. After the 1990 award, Ziraldo began a major public relations campaign to promote Inniskillin and build Icewine into a worldwide brand. He travelled broadly every year to promote the brand and products and networked extensively with politicians, celebrities, chefs, sommeliers, etc. To ensure worldwide and long-term success, Ziraldo introduced Icewine to Asia and the United States which were new markets. He developed a new Icewine glass with George Riedel. Tony Aspler has called Ziraldo ‘Canada’s Wine Ambassador’. Ziraldo was President of Inniskillin Wines Inc. (Niagara) from 1975 to 2006. In 1992, Inniskillin merged with Cartier Wines, and in 1993 Cartier Inniskillin Vintners Inc. merged with T.G. Bright & Co. Limited, forming the new company Vincor International Inc. Inniskillin wines was now a subsidiary of Vincor. Ziraldo became a Director at Vincor International Inc. from 1993 to 2004. From 1989 to the mid 1990s, Ziraldo also became President of Inniskillin Napa, in Napa Valley, California. Inniskillin purchased Napa Valley vineyards and produced wines under the Terra label. In 1994, Ziraldo set up a subsidiary estate winery of Inniskillin in Oliver, British Columbia which was called Inniskillin Okanagan Vineyards Inc. He became President of the winery. This started as a partnership between Inniskillin and the local Inkameep Indian Band in the Okanagan. In 2006, Ziraldo left Inniskillin and since that time he has been involved in other Icewine related ventures such as running Ziraldo Estate Winery and producing Ziraldo Riesling Icewine 2007. He also is in partnership with the Niagara based Equifera Estate Winery to produce Equifera Icewine. His most recent projects include planting Picolit grapes in his parent’s hometown, in a project called Picolit Di Fagagna and becoming Managing Director of the Senhora Do Convento Port Winery in Portugal. Donald Ziraldo was instrumental in the creation of the Vintners Quality Alliance (VQA) in Ontario and was its founding Chair from 1988-1995. The VQA was established as a regulatory and appellation system which secured the quality and origin of Canadian wines made under this system. The VQA designation and bottle label gave the consumer confidence that the wines they were purchasing were 100% local products. The VQA system was set up first in Ontario and then in British Columbia.

Bank of Canada Records, 1958-1989

The Bank of Canada first introduced Canada Savings Bonds during the First and Second World Wars. At the time, they were known as War Savings Certificates and Victory Bonds and were used to fund the war effort. In 1946, Canada Savings Bonds were used as part of Canada’s Postwar Financing Program. At that time, the government also introduced the sale of bonds through payroll deduction. Canada Savings Bonds proved to be very popular, providing investors with a convenient, flexible and safe investment. Over time the bonds failed to remain competitive with other low-risk investment options, and the high cost of administering the program called into question its relevance. An independent report commissioned by the government in 2004 recommended that the bonds be phased out, however, the government decided to keep the program and make some revisions. As of 2012, Canada Savings Bonds are available exclusively through the payroll savings program, while Canada Premium Bonds (introduced in 1998) are available through financial institutions, dealers and by phone.

Anticipated Guilt and Ethical Consumption: The Moderating Role of Consumers’ Socially Responsible Consumption Behaviour

Recent research in the marketing literature has indicated that, while consumers’ interests in ethical products are growing, demand for such products still remains weak. Previous research has indicated that anticipated guilt can have a positive effect on ethical consumption. Thus, the objective of the current study is to investigate the moderating role of consumers’ socially responsible consumption behaviour (SRCB) on the relationship between anticipated guilt and ethical consumption. Specifically, the current study hypothesizes that, when viewing a guilt ad, high (vs. low) SRCB individuals will generate higher, ethical purchase intentions, willingness to pay an ethical premium, and attitudes toward an ethical brand. The findings from the two experimental studies indicate that, when viewing a guilt ad for an ethical product, high SRCB individuals are willing to pay a higher ethical premium and generate more favourable brand attitudes than low SRCB individuals. However, when viewing a non-guilt ad, high SRCB individuals did not differ from low SRCB individuals in their willingness to pay an ethical premium or brand attitudes. Further, consumers’ socially conscious self-identity was explored as a mediator of these effects. By understanding the moderating role that SRCB plays in the relationship between anticipated guilt and ethical consumption, this paper intends to assist marketers in understanding for which consumers a guilt appeal is an appropriate strategy in marketing ethical products.

Letter to Mr. Summer and Mr. Nelles from the Office of the N.D. Mutual Insurance Company of St. Catharines

Letter to Mr. Summer and Mr. Nelles from the Office of the N.D. Mutual Insurance Company of St. Catharines regarding an assessment of 4 % on the premium notes of this company. This is signed by Mr. Arnold, secretary of N.D. Mutual F. Insurance Company, Aug. 9, 1848.