The role of dust in climate changes today, at the last glacial maximum and in the future.

Natural mineral aerosol (dust) is an active component of the climate system and plays multiple roles in mediating physical and biogeochemical exchanges between the atmosphere, land surface and ocean. Changes in the amount of dust in the atmosphere are caused both by changes in climate (precipitation, wind strength, regional moisture balance) and changes in the extent of dust sources caused by either anthropogenic or climatically induced changes in vegetation cover. Models of the global dust cycle take into account the physical controls on dust deflation from prescribed source areas (based largely on soil wetness and vegetation cover thresholds), dust transport within the atmospheric column, and dust deposition through sedimentation and scavenging by precipitation. These models successfully reproduce the first-order spatial and temporal patterns in atmospheric dust loading under modern conditions. Atmospheric dust loading was as much as an order-of-magnitude larger than today during the last glacial maximum (LGM). While the observed increase in emissions from northern Africa can be explained solely in terms of climate changes (colder, drier and windier glacial climates), increased emissions from other regions appear to have been largely a response to climatically induced changes in vegetation cover and hence in the extent of dust source areas. Model experiments suggest that the increased dust loading in tropical regions had an effect on radiative forcing comparable to that of low glacial CO2 levels. Changes in land-use are already increasing the dust loading of the atmosphere. However, simulations show that anthropogenically forced climate changes substantially reduce the extent and productivity of natural dust sources. Positive feedbacks initiated by a reduction of dust emissions from natural source areas on both radiative forcing and atmospheric CO2 could substantially mitigate the impacts of land-use changes, and need to be considered in climate change assessments.

Palaeovegetation of China: a pollen data-based synthesis for the mid-Holocene and last glacial maximum.

Pollen data from China for 6000 and 18,000 14C yr bp were compiled and used to reconstruct palaeovegetation patterns, using complete taxon lists where possible and a biomization procedure that entailed the assignment of 645 pollen taxa to plant functional types. A set of 658 modern pollen samples spanning all biomes and regions provided a comprehensive test for this procedure and showed convincing agreement between reconstructed biomes and present natural vegetation types, both geographically and in terms of the elevation gradients in mountain regions of north-eastern and south-western China. The 6000 14C yr bp map confirms earlier studies in showing that the forest biomes in eastern China were systematically shifted northwards and extended westwards during the mid-Holocene. Tropical rain forest occurred on mainland China at sites characterized today by either tropical seasonal or broadleaved evergreen/warm mixed forest. Broadleaved evergreen/warm mixed forest occurred further north than today, and at higher elevation sites within the modern latitudinal range of this biome. The northern limit of temperate deciduous forest was shifted c. 800 km north relative to today. The 18,000 14C yr bp map shows that steppe and even desert vegetation extended to the modern coast of eastern China at the last glacial maximum, replacing today’s temperate deciduous forest. Tropical forests were excluded from China and broadleaved evergreen/warm mixed forest had retreated to tropical latitudes, while taiga extended southwards to c. 43°N.

Dynamical and observational constraints on tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures at the last glacial maximum

Asynchronously coupled atmosphere and ocean general circulation model simulations are used to examine the consequences of changes in the west/east sea-surface temperature (SST) gradient across the equatorial Pacific at the last glacial maximum (LGM). Simulations forced by the CLIMAP SST for the LGM, where the west/east SST gradient across the Pacific is reduced compared to present, produce a reduction in the strength of the trade winds and a decrease in the west/east slope of the equatorial thermocline that is incompatible with thermocline depths newly inferred from foraminiferal assemblages. Stronger-than-present trade winds, and a more realistic simulation of the thermocline slope, are produced when eastern Pacific SSTs are 2°C cooler than western Pacific SSTs. Our study highlights the importance of spatial heterogeneity in tropical SSTs in determining key features of the glacial climate.

Tropical palaeoclimates at the Last Glacial Maximum: comparison of Palaeoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP)simulations and paleodata.

Seventeen simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) climate have been performed using atmospheric general circulation models (AGCM) in the framework of the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP). These simulations use the boundary conditions for CO2, insolation and ice-sheets; surface temperatures (SSTs) are either (a) prescribed using CLIMAP data set (eight models) or (b) computed by coupling the AGCM with a slab ocean (nine models). The present-day (PD) tropical climate is correctly depicted by all the models, except the coarser resolution models, and the simulated geographical distribution of annual mean temperature is in good agreement with climatology. Tropical cooling at the LGM is less than at middle and high latitudes, but greatly exceeds the PD temperature variability. The LGM simulations with prescribed SSTs underestimate the observed temperature changes except over equatorial Africa where the models produce a temperature decrease consistent with the data. Our results confirm previous analyses showing that CLIMAP (1981) SSTs only produce a weak terrestrial cooling. When SSTs are computed, the models depict a cooling over the Pacific and Indian oceans in contrast with CLIMAP and most models produce cooler temperatures over land. Moreover four of the nine simulations, produce a cooling in good agreement with terrestrial data. Two of these model results over ocean are consistent with new SST reconstructions whereas two models simulate a homogeneous cooling. Finally, the LGM aridity inferred for most of the tropics from the data, is globally reproduced by the models with a strong underestimation for models using computed SSTs.

Tropical climates at the Last Glacial Maximum: a new synthesis of terrestrial palaeoclimate data. I. Vegetation, lake-levels and geochemistry.

Palaeodata in synthesis form are needed as benchmarks for the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP). Advances since the last synthesis of terrestrial palaeodata from the last glacial maximum (LGM) call for a new evaluation, especially of data from the tropics. Here pollen, plant-macrofossil, lake-level, noble gas (from groundwater) and δ18O (from speleothems) data are compiled for 18±2 ka (14C), 32 °N–33 °S. The reliability of the data was evaluated using explicit criteria and some types of data were re-analysed using consistent methods in order to derive a set of mutually consistent palaeoclimate estimates of mean temperature of the coldest month (MTCO), mean annual temperature (MAT), plant available moisture (PAM) and runoff (P-E). Cold-month temperature (MAT) anomalies from plant data range from −1 to −2 K near sea level in Indonesia and the S Pacific, through −6 to −8 K at many high-elevation sites to −8 to −15 K in S China and the SE USA. MAT anomalies from groundwater or speleothems seem more uniform (−4 to −6 K), but the data are as yet sparse; a clear divergence between MAT and cold-month estimates from the same region is seen only in the SE USA, where cold-air advection is expected to have enhanced cooling in winter. Regression of all cold-month anomalies against site elevation yielded an estimated average cooling of −2.5 to −3 K at modern sea level, increasing to ≈−6 K by 3000 m. However, Neotropical sites showed larger than the average sea-level cooling (−5 to −6 K) and a non-significant elevation effect, whereas W and S Pacific sites showed much less sea-level cooling (−1 K) and a stronger elevation effect. These findings support the inference that tropical sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) were lower than the CLIMAP estimates, but they limit the plausible average tropical sea-surface cooling, and they support the existence of CLIMAP-like geographic patterns in SST anomalies. Trends of PAM and lake levels indicate wet LGM conditions in the W USA, and at the highest elevations, with generally dry conditions elsewhere. These results suggest a colder-than-present ocean surface producing a weaker hydrological cycle, more arid continents, and arguably steeper-than-present terrestrial lapse rates. Such linkages are supported by recent observations on freezing-level height and tropical SSTs; moreover, simulations of “greenhouse” and LGM climates point to several possible feedback processes by which low-level temperature anomalies might be amplified aloft.

Dust sources and deposition during the last glacial maximum and current climate: a comparison of model results with paleodata from ice cores and marine sediments

Mineral dust aerosols in the atmosphere have the potential to affect the global climate by influencing the radiative balance of the atmosphere and the supply of micronutrients to the ocean. Ice and marine sediment cores indicate that dust deposition from the atmosphere was at some locations 2–20 times greater during glacial periods, raising the possibility that mineral aerosols might have contributed to climate change on glacial-interglacial time scales. To address this question, we have used linked terrestrial biosphere, dust source, and atmospheric transport models to simulate the dust cycle in the atmosphere for current and last glacial maximum (LGM) climates. We obtain a 2.5-fold higher dust loading in the entire atmosphere and a twenty-fold higher loading in high latitudes, in LGM relative to present. Comparisons to a compilation of atmospheric dust deposition flux estimates for LGM and present in marine sediment and ice cores show that the simulated flux ratios are broadly in agreement with observations; differences suggest where further improvements in the simple dust model could be made. The simulated increase in high-latitude dustiness depends on the expansion of unvegetated areas, especially in the high latitudes and in central Asia, caused by a combination of increased aridity and low atmospheric [CO2]. The existence of these dust source areas at the LGM is supported by pollen data and loess distribution in the northern continents. These results point to a role for vegetation feedbacks, including climate effects and physiological effects of low [CO2], in modulating the atmospheric distribution of dust.

Simulated last glacial maximum D14Catm and the deep glacial ocean carbon reservoir

∆14Catm has been estimated as 420 ± 80‰ (IntCal09) during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) compared to preindustrial times (0‰), but mechanisms explaining this difference are not yet resolved. ∆14Catm is a function of both cosmogenic production in the high atmosphere and of carbon cycling and partitioning in the Earth system. 10Be-based reconstructions show a contribution of the cosmogenic production term of only 200 ± 200‰ in the LGM. The remaining 220‰ have thus to be explained by changes in the carbon cycle. Recently, Bouttes et al. (2010, 2011) proposed to explain most of the difference in pCO2atm and δ13C between glacial and interglacial times as a result of brine-induced ocean stratification in the Southern Ocean. This mechanism involves the formation of very saline water masses that contribute to high carbon storage in the deep ocean. During glacial times, the sinking of brines is enhanced and more carbon is stored in the deep ocean, lowering pCO2atm. Moreover, the sinking of brines induces increased stratification in the Southern Ocean, which keeps the deep ocean well isolated from the surface. Such an isolated ocean reservoir would be characterized by a low ∆14C signature. Evidence of such 14C-depleted deep waters during the LGM has recently been found in the Southern Ocean (Skinner et al. 2010). The degassing of this carbon with low ∆14C would then reduce ∆14Catm throughout the deglaciation. We have further developed the CLIMBER-2 model to include a cosmogenic production of 14C as well as an interactive atmospheric 14C reservoir. We investigate the role of both the sinking of brine and cosmogenic production, alongside iron fertilization mechanisms, to explain changes in ∆14Catm during the last deglaciation. In our simulations, not only is the sinking of brine mechanism consistent with past ∆14C data, but it also explains most of the differences in pCO2atm and ∆14Catm between the LGM and preindustrial times. Finally, this study represents the first time to our knowledge that a model experiment explains glacial-interglacial differences in pCO2atm, δ13C, and ∆14C together with a coherent LGM climate.

Hydrology and climatology at Laguna La Gaiba, lowland Bolivia: complex responses to climatic forcings over the last 25,000 years

Diatom, geochemical and isotopic data provide a record of environmental change in Laguna La Gaiba, lowland Bolivia (17°450S, 57°350W), over the last ca. 25 000 years. High-resolution diatom analysis around the Last Glacial–Interglacial Transition provides new insights into this period of change. The full and late glacial lake was generally quite shallow, but with evidence of periodic flooding. At about 13 100 cal a BP, just before the start of the Younger Dryas chronozone, the diatoms indicate shallower water conditions, but there is a marked change at about 12 200 cal a BP indicating the onset of a period of high variability, with rising water levels punctuated by periodic drying. From ca. 11 800 to 10 000 cal a BP, stable, deeper water conditions persisted. There is evidence for drying in the early to middle Holocene, but not as pronounced as that reported from elsewhere in the southern hemisphere tropics of South America. This was followed by the onset of wetter conditions in the late Holocene consistent with insolation forcing. Conditions very similar to present were established about 2100 cal a BP. A complex response to both insolation forcing and millennial-scale events originating in the North Atlantic is noted.

Landscape change in central Latvia since the Iron Age: multi-proxy analysis of the vegetation impact of conflict, colonization and economic expansion during the last 2000 years

This study represents the first detailed multi-proxy palaeoenvironmental investigation associated with a Late Iron Age lake-dwelling site in the eastern Baltic. The main objective was to reconstruct the environmental and vegetation dynamics associated with the establishment of the lake-dwelling and land-use during the last 2,000 years. A lacustrine sediment core located adjacent to a Late Iron Age lake-dwelling, medieval castle and Post-medieval manor was sampled in Lake Āraiši. The core was dated using spheroidal fly-ash particles and radiocarbon dating, and analysed in terms of pollen, non-pollen palynomorphs, diatoms, loss-on-ignition, magnetic susceptibility and element geochemistry. Associations between pollen and other proxies were statistically tested. During ad 1–700, the vicinity of Lake Āraiši was covered by forests and human activities were only small-scale with the first appearance of cereal pollen (Triticum and Secale cereale) after ad 400. The most significant changes in vegetation and environment occurred with the establishment of the lake-dwelling around ad 780 when the immediate surroundings of the lake were cleared for agriculture, and within the lake there were increased nutrient levels. The highest accumulation rates of coprophilous fungi coincide with the occupation of the lake-dwelling from ad 780–1050, indicating that parts of the dwelling functioned as byres for livestock. The conquest of tribal lands during the crusades resulted in changes to the ownership, administration and organisation of the land, but our results indicate that the form and type of agriculture and land-use continued much as it had during the preceding Late Iron Age.

A doubling of the sun's coronal magnetic field during the last 100 years

The solar wind is an extended ionized gas of very high electrical conductivity, and therefore drags some magnetic flux out of the Sun to fill the heliosphere with a weak interplanetary magnetic field(1,2). Magnetic reconnection-the merging of oppositely directed magnetic fields-between the interplanetary field and the Earth's magnetic field allows energy from the solar wind to enter the near-Earth environment. The Sun's properties, such as its luminosity, are related to its magnetic field, although the connections are still not well understood(3,4). Moreover, changes in the heliospheric magnetic field have been linked with changes in total cloud cover over the Earth, which may influence global climate(5), Here we show that measurements of the near-Earth interplanetary magnetic field reveal that the total magnetic flux leaving the Sun has risen by a factor of 1.4 since 1964: surrogate measurements of the interplanetary magnetic field indicate that the increase since 1901 has been by a factor of 2,3, This increase may be related to chaotic changes in the dynamo that generates the solar magnetic field. We do not yet know quantitatively how such changes will influence the global environment.

Cluster's last stand?

On 4 June last year the first attempt to make three-dimensional measurements in space was lost when the Ariane 5 rocket veered off course and self-destructed, 39 s into its maiden flight. On board were four identical spacecraft which made up Cluster,a mission that the European Space Agency called a “cornerstone” of its Horizon 2000 scientific programme. A full description of the Cluster satellites is given in a special issue of Space Science Reviews (Escoubet et al. 1997). Their loss dealt a devastating blow to the Cluster scientists and to those working on other missions and projects planned to interact with Cluster. Many discoveries have been made during the 15 years in which Cluster progressed from an idea to the state-of-the-art satellites that were on top of Ariane 501 on 4 June. However, these discoveries invariably underline rather than undermine the importance of Cluster. Now plans to recover the unique and exciting research that was to be done using Cluster are well advanced.