Growth in Virologically Suppressed HIV Positive Children on Antiretroviral Therapy: Individual and Population-Level References

BACKGROUND Combination antiretroviral therapy (ART) suppresses viral replication in HIV-infected children. The growth of virologically suppressed children on ART has not been well documented. We aimed to develop dynamic reference curves for weight-for-age z scores (WAZ) and height-for-age z scores (HAZ). RESULTS A total of 4,876 children were followed for 7,407 person-years. Analyses were stratified by baseline z-scores and age, which were the most important predictors of growth response. The youngest children showed the most pronounced increase in weight and height initially but catch-up growth stagnated after 1-2 years. Three years after starting ART, WAZ ranged from -2.2 (95% Prediction interval -5.6 to 0.8) in children with baseline age "5 years and z-score "-3 to 0.0 (-2.7 to 2.4) in children with baseline age "2 years and WAZ "-1. For HAZ the corresponding range was -2.3 (-4.9 to 0.3) in children with baseline age"5 years and z-score "-3 to 0.3 (-3.1 to 3.4) in children with baseline age 2-5 years and HAZ "-1. CONCLUSIONS We have developed an online tool to calculate reference trajectories in fully suppressed children. The web application could help to define 'optimal' growth response and identify children with treatment failure.

Risk charts to guide targeted HIV-1 viral load monitoring of ART: development and validation in patients from resource-limited settings.

BACKGROUND HIV-1 RNA viral load (VL) testing is recommended to monitor antiretroviral therapy (ART) but not available in many resource-limited settings. We developed and validated CD4-based risk charts to guide targeted VL testing. METHODS We modeled the probability of virologic failure up to 5 years of ART based on current and baseline CD4 counts, developed decision rules for targeted VL testing of 10%, 20% or 40% of patients in seven cohorts of patients starting ART in South Africa, and plotted cut-offs for VL testing on colour-coded risk charts. We assessed the accuracy of risk chart-guided VL testing to detect virologic failure in validation cohorts from South Africa, Zambia and the Asia-Pacific. FINDINGS 31,450 adult patients were included in the derivation and 25,294 patients in the validation cohorts. Positive predictive values increased with the percentage of patients tested: from 79% (10% tested) to 98% (40% tested) in the South African, from 64% to 93% in the Zambian and from 73% to 96% in the Asia-Pacific cohorts. Corresponding increases in sensitivity were from 35% to 68% in South Africa, from 55% to 82% in Zambia and from 37% to 71% in Asia-Pacific. The area under the receiver-operating curve increased from 0.75 to 0.91 in South Africa, from 0.76 to 0.91 in Zambia and from 0.77 to 0.92 in Asia Pacific. INTERPRETATION CD4-based risk charts with optimal cut-offs for targeted VL testing may be useful to monitor ART in settings where VL capacity is limited.

Jatropha mahafalensis for rural energy supply in south-western Madagascar?

In many parts of the eastern African region wood-based fuels will remain dominant sources of energy in coming decades. Pressure on forests, especially in semi-arid areas will therefore continue increasing. In this context, the role of liquid biofuels as substitutes for firewood and charcoal, to help reducing pressure on woody biomass and contributing to a better energy security of rural communities, has remained controversial among researchers and practitioners. At household level, the economic and technical feasibility of straight vegetable oil (SVO) was assessed mainly on Jatropha curcas, with unpersuasive results. So far nothing is known about the suitability as an energy carrier of Jatropha mahafalensis Jum. & H. Perrier, the only endemic representative of the Jatropha genus in Madagascar. This paper explores the potential of this plant as a biofuel feedstock in the agro-pastoral area of Soalara, in the semi-arid south-western part of Madagascar. Only hedge-based production was considered to rule out competition over land with food crops. Yield data, the length of currently existing hedges and energy consumption patterns of households were used to assess the quantitative potential and economic viability of J. mahafalensis SVO for lighting and cooking. Tests were conducted with cooking and lighting devices to assess their technical suitability at household level. The paper concludes that J. mahafalensis hedges have some potential to replace paraffin for lighting (though without much economic benefit for the concerned households), but not to replace charcoal or firewood for cooking. The paper recommends that rural energy strategies in similar contexts do not focus only on substituting current fuels with SVO, but should also take into consideration other alternatives. In the case of cooking, there seems to be substantially more potential in increasing the efficiency of current fuel production and consumption technologies (kilns and stoves); and in the case of lighting, solutions based on SVO need to be compared against other options such as portable solar devices.

Depositional modes and lake-level variability at Lake Towuti, Indonesia, during the past ~29 kyr BP

Lake Towuti (2.5°S, 121.5°E) is a long-lived, tectonic lake located on the Island of Sulawesi, Indonesia, and in the center of the Indo-Pacific warm pool (IPWP). Lake Towuti is connected with upstream lakes Matano and Mahalona through the Mahalona River, which constitutes the largest inlet to the lake. The Mahalona River Delta is prograding into Lake Towuti’s deep northern basin thus exerting significant control on depositional processes in the basin. We combine high-resolution seismic reflection and sedimentological datasets from a 19.8-m-long sediment piston core from the distal edge of this delta to characterize fluctuations in deltaic sedimentation during the past ~29 kyr BP and their relation to climatic change. Our datasets reveal that, in the present, sedimentation is strongly influenced by deposition of laterally transported sediments sourced from the Mahalona River Delta. Variations in the amount of laterally transported sediments, as expressed by coarse fraction amounts in pelagic muds and turbidite recurrence rates and cumulative thicknesses, are primarily a function of lake-level induced delta slope instability and delta progradation into the basin. We infer lowest lake-levels between ~29 and 16, a gradual lake level rise between ~16 and 11, and high lake-levels between ~11 and 0 kyr BP. Periods of highest turbidite deposition, ~26 to 24 and ~18 to 16 kyr BP coincide with Heinrich events 2 and 1, respectively. Our lake-level reconstruction therefore supports previous observations based on geochemical hydroclimate proxies of a very dry last glacial and a wet Holocene in the region, and provides new evidence of millennial-scale variations in moisture balance in the IPWP.

Definitions and outcome measures for mucous membrane pemphigoid: recommendations of an international panel of experts

Mucous membrane pemphigoid encompasses a group of autoimmune bullous diseases with a similar phenotype characterized by subepithelial blisters, erosions, and scarring of mucous membranes, skin, or both. Although knowledge about autoimmune bullous disease is increasing, there is often a lack of clear definitions of disease, outcome measures, and therapeutic end points. With clearer definitions and outcome measures, it is possible to directly compare the results and data from various studies using meta-analyses. This consensus statement provides accurate and reproducible definitions for disease extent, activity, outcome measures, end points, and therapeutic response for mucous membrane pemphigoid and proposes a disease extent score, the Mucous Membrane Pemphigoid Disease Area Index.

Age in antiretroviral therapy programmes in South Africa: a retrospective, multicentre, observational cohort study.

BACKGROUND As access to antiretroviral therapy (ART) expands, increasing numbers of older patients will start treatment and need specialised long-term care. However, the effect of age in ART programmes in resource-constrained settings is poorly understood. The HIV epidemic is ageing rapidly and South Africa has one of the highest HIV population prevalences worldwide. We explored the effect of age on mortality of patients on ART in South Africa and whether this effect is mediated by baseline immunological status. METHODS In this retrospective cohort analysis, we studied HIV-positive patients aged 16-80 years who started ART for the first time in six large South African cohorts of the International Epidemiologic Databases to Evaluate AIDS-Southern Africa collaboration, in KwaZulu-Natal, Gauteng, and Western Cape (two primary care clinics, three hospitals, and a large rural cohort). The primary outcome was mortality. We ascertained patients' vital status through linkage to the National Population Register. We used inverse probability weighting to correct mortality for loss to follow-up. We estimated mortality using Cox's proportional hazards and competing risks regression. We tested the interaction between baseline CD4 cell count and age. FINDINGS Between Jan 1, 2004, and Dec 31, 2013, 84,078 eligible adults started ART. Of these, we followed up 83,566 patients for 174,640 patient-years. 8% (1817 of 23,258) of patients aged 16-29 years died compared with 19% (93 of 492) of patients aged 65 years or older. The age adjusted mortality hazard ratio was 2·52 (95% CI 2·01-3·17) for people aged 65 years or older compared with those 16-29 years of age. In patients starting ART with a CD4 count of less than 50 cells per μL, the adjusted mortality hazard ratio was 2·52 (2·04-3·11) for people aged 50 years or older compared with those 16-39 years old. Mortality was highest in patients with CD4 counts of less than 50 cells per μL, and 15% (1103 of 7295) of all patients aged 50 years or older starting ART were in this group. The proportion of patients aged 50 years or older enrolling in ART increased with successive years, from 6% (290 of 4999) in 2004 to 10% (961 of 9657) in 2012-13, comprising 9% of total enrolment (7295 of 83 566). At the end of the study, 6304 (14%) of 44,909 patients still alive and in care were aged 50 years or older. INTERPRETATION Health services need reorientation towards HIV diagnosis and starting of ART in older individuals. Policies are needed for long-term care of older people with HIV. FUNDING National Institutes of Health (National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases), US Agency for International Development, and South African Centre for Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis.

Implementation and Operational Research: Risk Charts to Guide Targeted HIV-1 Viral Load Monitoring of ART: Development and Validation in Patients From Resource-Limited Settings.

BACKGROUND HIV-1 RNA viral load (VL) testing is recommended to monitor antiretroviral therapy (ART) but not available in many resource-limited settings. We developed and validated CD4-based risk charts to guide targeted VL testing. METHODS We modeled the probability of virologic failure up to 5 years of ART based on current and baseline CD4 counts, developed decision rules for targeted VL testing of 10%, 20%, or 40% of patients in 7 cohorts of patients starting ART in South Africa, and plotted cutoffs for VL testing on colour-coded risk charts. We assessed the accuracy of risk chart-guided VL testing to detect virologic failure in validation cohorts from South Africa, Zambia, and the Asia-Pacific. RESULTS In total, 31,450 adult patients were included in the derivation and 25,294 patients in the validation cohorts. Positive predictive values increased with the percentage of patients tested: from 79% (10% tested) to 98% (40% tested) in the South African cohort, from 64% to 93% in the Zambian cohort, and from 73% to 96% in the Asia-Pacific cohort. Corresponding increases in sensitivity were from 35% to 68% in South Africa, from 55% to 82% in Zambia, and from 37% to 71% in Asia-Pacific. The area under the receiver operating curve increased from 0.75 to 0.91 in South Africa, from 0.76 to 0.91 in Zambia, and from 0.77 to 0.92 in Asia-Pacific. CONCLUSIONS CD4-based risk charts with optimal cutoffs for targeted VL testing maybe useful to monitor ART in settings where VL capacity is limited.

Outcomes of Infants Starting Antiretroviral Therapy in Southern Africa, 2004-2012.

BACKGROUND There are limited published data on the outcomes of infants starting antiretroviral therapy (ART) in routine care in Southern Africa. This study aimed to examine the baseline characteristics and outcomes of infants initiating ART. METHODS We analyzed prospectively collected cohort data from routine ART initiation in infants from 11 cohorts contributing to the International Epidemiologic Database to Evaluate AIDS in Southern Africa. We included ART-naive HIV-infected infants aged <12 months initiating ≥3 antiretroviral drugs between 2004 and 2012. Kaplan-Meier estimates were calculated for mortality, loss to follow-up (LTFU), transfer out, and virological suppression. We used Cox proportional hazard models stratified by cohort to determine baseline characteristics associated with outcomes mortality and virological suppression. RESULTS The median (interquartile range) age at ART initiation of 4945 infants was 5.9 months (3.7-8.7) with follow-up of 11.2 months (2.8-20.0). At ART initiation, 77% had WHO clinical stage 3 or 4 disease and 87% were severely immunosuppressed. Three-year mortality probability was 16% and LTFU 29%. Severe immunosuppression, WHO stage 3 or 4, anemia, being severely underweight, and initiation of treatment before 2010 were associated with higher mortality. At 12 months after ART initiation, 17% of infants were severely immunosuppressed and the probability of attaining virological suppression was 56%. CONCLUSIONS Most infants initiating ART in Southern Africa had severe disease with high probability of LTFU and mortality on ART. Although the majority of infants remaining in care showed immune recovery and virological suppression, these responses were suboptimal.

Reducing CD4 Monitoring in Children on Antiretroviral Therapy With Virologic Suppression.

BACKGROUND Ongoing CD4 monitoring in patients on antiretroviral therapy (ART) with viral suppression has been questioned. We evaluated the probability of CD4 decline in children with viral suppression and CD4 recovery after 1 year on ART. METHODS We included children from 8 South African cohorts with routine HIV-RNA monitoring if (1) they were "responders" [HIV-RNA < 400 copies/mL and no severe immunosuppression after ≥1 year on ART (time 0)] and (2) ≥1 HIV-RNA and CD4 measurement within 15 months of time 0. We determined the probability of CD4 decline to World Health Organization-defined severe immunosuppression for 3 years after time 0 if viral suppression was maintained. Follow-up was censored at the earliest of the following dates: the day before first HIV-RNA measurement >400 copies/mL; day before a >15-month gap in testing and date of death, loss to follow-up, transfer out or database closure. RESULTS Among 5984 children [median age at time 0: 5.8 years (interquartile range: 3.1-9.0)], 270 children experienced a single CD4 decline to severe immunosuppression within 3 years of time 0 with probability of 6.6% (95% CI: 5.8-7.4). A subsequent CD4 measurement within 15 months of the first low measurement was available for 63% of children with CD4 decline and 86% showed CD4 recovery. The probability of CD4 decline was lowest (2.8%) in children aged 2 years or older with no or mild immunosuppression and on ART for <18 months at time 0. This group comprised 40% of children. CONCLUSIONS This finding suggests that it may be safe to stop routine CD4 monitoring in children older than 2 years and rely on virologic monitoring alone.

Deficiency of MALT1 paracaspase activity results in unbalanced regulatory and effector T and B cell responses leading to multiorgan inflammation

The paracaspase MALT1 plays an important role in immune receptor-driven signaling pathways leading to NF-κB activation. MALT1 promotes signaling by acting as a scaffold, recruiting downstream signaling proteins, as well as by proteolytic cleavage of multiple substrates. However, the relative contributions of these two different activities to T and B cell function are not well understood. To investigate how MALT1 proteolytic activity contributes to overall immune cell regulation, we generated MALT1 protease-deficient mice (Malt1(PD/PD)) and compared their phenotype with that of MALT1 knockout animals (Malt1(-/-)). Malt1(PD/PD) mice displayed defects in multiple cell types including marginal zone B cells, B1 B cells, IL-10-producing B cells, regulatory T cells, and mature T and B cells. In general, immune defects were more pronounced in Malt1(-/-) animals. Both mouse lines showed abrogated B cell responses upon immunization with T-dependent and T-independent Ags. In vitro, inactivation of MALT1 protease activity caused reduced stimulation-induced T cell proliferation, impaired IL-2 and TNF-α production, as well as defective Th17 differentiation. Consequently, Malt1(PD/PD) mice were protected in a Th17-dependent experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis model. Surprisingly, Malt1(PD/PD) animals developed a multiorgan inflammatory pathology, characterized by Th1 and Th2/0 responses and enhanced IgG1 and IgE levels, which was delayed by wild-type regulatory T cell reconstitution. We therefore propose that the pathology characterizing Malt1(PD/PD) animals arises from an immune imbalance featuring pathogenic Th1- and Th2/0-skewed effector responses and reduced immunosuppressive compartments. These data uncover a previously unappreciated key function of MALT1 protease activity in immune homeostasis and underline its relevance in human health and disease.

Incidence of AIDS-Defining and Other Cancers in HIV-Positive Children in South Africa: Record Linkage Study.

BACKGROUND Little is known on the risk of cancer in HIV-positive children in sub-Saharan Africa. We examined incidence and risk factors of AIDS-defining and other cancers in pediatric antiretroviral therapy (ART) programs in South Africa. METHODS We linked the records of five ART programs in Johannesburg and Cape Town to those of pediatric oncology units, based on name and surname, date of birth, folder and civil identification numbers. We calculated incidence rates and obtained hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) from Cox regression models including ART, sex, age, and degree of immunodeficiency. Missing CD4 counts and CD4% were multiply imputed. Immunodeficiency was defined according to World Health Organization 2005 criteria. RESULTS Data of 11,707 HIV-positive children were included in the analysis. During 29,348 person-years of follow-up 24 cancers were diagnosed, for an incidence rate of 82 per 100,000 person-years (95% CI 55-122). The most frequent cancers were Kaposi Sarcoma (34 per 100,000 person-years) and Non Hodgkin Lymphoma (31 per 100,000 person-years). The incidence of non AIDS-defining malignancies was 17 per 100,000. The risk of developing cancer was lower on ART (HR 0.29, 95%CI 0.09-0.86), and increased with age at enrolment (>10 versus <3 years: HR 7.3, 95% CI 2.2-24.6) and immunodeficiency at enrolment (advanced/severe versus no/mild: HR 3.5, 95%CI 1.1-12.0). The HR for the effect of ART from complete case analysis was similar but ceased to be statistically significant (p=0.078). CONCLUSIONS Early HIV diagnosis and linkage to care, with start of ART before advanced immunodeficiency develops, may substantially reduce the burden of cancer in HIV-positive children in South Africa and elsewhere.

What drives European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) mortality after forest fires of varying severity?

Predicting the timing and amount of tree mortality after a forest fire is of paramount importance for post-fire management decisions, such as salvage logging or reforestation. Such knowledge is particularly needed in mountainous regions where forest stands often serve as protection against natural hazards (e.g., snow avalanches, rockfalls, landslides). In this paper, we focus on the drivers and timing of mortality in fire-injured beech trees (Fagus sylvatica L.) in mountain regions. We studied beech forests in the southwestern European Alps, which burned between 1970 and 2012. The results show that beech trees, which lack fire-resistance traits, experience increased mortality within the first two decades post-fire with a timing and amount strongly related to the burn severity. Beech mortality is fast and ubiquitous in high severity sites, whereas small- (DBH <12 cm) and intermediate-diameter (DBH 12–36 cm) trees face a higher risk to die in moderate-severity sites. Large-diameter trees mostly survive, representing a crucial ecological legacy for beech regeneration. Mortality remains low and at a level similar to unburnt beech forests for low burn severity sites. Beech trees diameter, the presence of fungal infestation and elevation are the most significant drivers of mortality. The risk of beech to die increases toward higher elevation and is higher for small-diameter than for large-diameter trees. In case of secondary fungi infestation beech faces generally a higher risk to die. Interestingly, fungi that initiate post-fire tree mortality differ from fungi occurring after mechanical injury. From a management point of view, the insights about the controls of post-fire mortality provided by this study should help in planning post-fire silvicultural measures in montane beech forests.

Challenges in Collating Spirometry Reference Data for South-Asian Children: An Observational Study.

METHODS Spirometry datasets from South-Asian children were collated from four centres in India and five within the UK. Records with transcription errors, missing values for height or spirometry, and implausible values were excluded(n = 110). RESULTS Following exclusions, cross-sectional data were available from 8,124 children (56.3% male; 5-17 years). When compared with GLI-predicted values from White Europeans, forced expired volume in 1s (FEV1) and forced vital capacity (FVC) in South-Asian children were on average 15% lower, ranging from 4-19% between centres. By contrast, proportional reductions in FEV1 and FVC within all but two datasets meant that the FEV1/FVC ratio remained independent of ethnicity. The 'GLI-Other' equation fitted data from North India reasonably well while 'GLI-Black' equations provided a better approximation for South-Asian data than the 'GLI-White' equation. However, marked discrepancies in the mean lung function z-scores between centres especially when examined according to socio-economic conditions precluded derivation of a single South-Asian GLI-adjustment. CONCLUSION Until improved and more robust prediction equations can be derived, we recommend the use of 'GLI-Black' equations for interpreting most South-Asian data, although 'GLI-Other' may be more appropriate for North Indian data. Prospective data collection using standardised protocols to explore potential sources of variation due to socio-economic circumstances, secular changes in growth/predictors of lung function and ethnicities within the South-Asian classification are urgently required.

Record linkage to correct under-ascertainment of cancers in HIV cohorts: the Sinikithemba HIV clinic linkage project.

The surveillance of HIV-related cancers in South Africa is hampered by the lack of systematic collection of cancer diagnoses in HIV cohorts and the absence of HIV status in cancer registries. To improve cancer ascertainment and estimate cancer incidence, we linked records of adults (aged ≥ 16 years) on antiretroviral treatment (ART) enrolled at Sinikithemba HIV clinic, McCord Hospital in KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) with the cancer records of public laboratories in KZN province using probabilistic record linkage methods. We calculated incidence rates for all cancers, Kaposi sarcoma (KS), cervix, non-Hodgkin's lymphoma and non-AIDS defining cancers (NADCs) before and after inclusion of linkage-identified cancers with 95% confidence intervals (CI). A total of 8,721 records of HIV-positive patients were linked with 35,536 cancer records. Between 2004 and 2010 we identified 448 cancers, 82% (n=367) were recorded in the cancer registry only, 10% (n=43) in the HIV cohort only and 8% (n=38) both in the HIV cohort and the cancer registry. The overall cancer incidence rate in patients starting ART increased from 134 (95% CI 91-212) to 877 (95% CI 744-1,041) after inclusion of linkage-identified cancers. Incidence rates were highest for KS (432, 95% CI 341-555), followed by cervix (259, 95% CI 179-390) and NADCs (294, 95% CI 223-395) per 100,000 person-years. Ascertainment of cancer in HIV cohorts is incomplete, probabilistic record linkage is both feasible and essential for cancer ascertainment. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

When to Monitor CD4 Cell Count and HIV RNA to Reduce Mortality and AIDS-Defining Illness in Virologically Suppressed HIV-Positive Persons on Antiretroviral Therapy in High-Income Countries: A Prospective Observational Study.

OBJECTIVE To illustrate an approach to compare CD4 cell count and HIV-RNA monitoring strategies in HIV-positive individuals on antiretroviral therapy (ART). DESIGN Prospective studies of HIV-positive individuals in Europe and the USA in the HIV-CAUSAL Collaboration and The Center for AIDS Research Network of Integrated Clinical Systems. METHODS Antiretroviral-naive individuals who initiated ART and became virologically suppressed within 12 months were followed from the date of suppression. We compared 3 CD4 cell count and HIV-RNA monitoring strategies: once every (1) 3 ± 1 months, (2) 6 ± 1 months, and (3) 9-12 ± 1 months. We used inverse-probability weighted models to compare these strategies with respect to clinical, immunologic, and virologic outcomes. RESULTS In 39,029 eligible individuals, there were 265 deaths and 690 AIDS-defining illnesses or deaths. Compared with the 3-month strategy, the mortality hazard ratios (95% CIs) were 0.86 (0.42 to 1.78) for the 6 months and 0.82 (0.46 to 1.47) for the 9-12 month strategy. The respective 18-month risk ratios (95% CIs) of virologic failure (RNA >200) were 0.74 (0.46 to 1.19) and 2.35 (1.56 to 3.54) and 18-month mean CD4 differences (95% CIs) were -5.3 (-18.6 to 7.9) and -31.7 (-52.0 to -11.3). The estimates for the 2-year risk of AIDS-defining illness or death were similar across strategies. CONCLUSIONS Our findings suggest that monitoring frequency of virologically suppressed individuals can be decreased from every 3 months to every 6, 9, or 12 months with respect to clinical outcomes. Because effects of different monitoring strategies could take years to materialize, longer follow-up is needed to fully evaluate this question.