Individual prediction of automobile bodily injury claims liabilities

[spa] La mayoría de siniestros con daños corporales se liquidan mediante negociación, llegando a juicio menos del 5% de los casos. Una estrategia de negociación bien definida es, por tanto, fundamental para las compañías aseguradoras. En este artículo asumimos que la compensación monetaria concedida en juicio es la máxima cuantía que debería ser ofrecida por el asegurador en el proceso de negociación. Usando una base de datos real, implementamos un modelo log-lineal para estimar la máxima oferta de negociación. Perturbaciones no-esféricas son detectadas. Correlación ocurre cuando más de una siniestro se liquida en la misma sentencia judicial. Heterocedasticidad por grupos se debe a la influencia de la valoración del forense en la indemnización final.

Interactome mapping of the phosphatidylinositol 3-kinase-mammalian target of rapamycin pathway identifies deformed epidermal autoregulatory factor-1 as a new glycogen synthase kinase-3 interactor.

The phosphatidylinositol 3-kinase-mammalian target of rapamycin (PI3K-mTOR) pathway plays pivotal roles in cell survival, growth, and proliferation downstream of growth factors. Its perturbations are associated with cancer progression, type 2 diabetes, and neurological disorders. To better understand the mechanisms of action and regulation of this pathway, we initiated a large scale yeast two-hybrid screen for 33 components of the PI3K-mTOR pathway. Identification of 67 new interactions was followed by validation by co-affinity purification and exhaustive literature curation of existing information. We provide a nearly complete, functionally annotated interactome of 802 interactions for the PI3K-mTOR pathway. Our screen revealed a predominant place for glycogen synthase kinase-3 (GSK3) A and B and the AMP-activated protein kinase. In particular, we identified the deformed epidermal autoregulatory factor-1 (DEAF1) transcription factor as an interactor and in vitro substrate of GSK3A and GSK3B. Moreover, GSK3 inhibitors increased DEAF1 transcriptional activity on the 5-HT1A serotonin receptor promoter. We propose that DEAF1 may represent a therapeutic target of lithium and other GSK3 inhibitors used in bipolar disease and depression.

c-Jun N-terminal kinase binding domain-dependent phosphorylation of mitogen-activated protein kinase kinase 4 and mitogen-activated protein kinase kinase 7 and balancing cross-talk between c-Jun N-terminal kinase and extracellular signal-regulated kinase pathways in cortical neurons

The c-Jun N-terminal kinase (JNK) is a mitogen-activated protein kinase (MAPK) activated by stress-signals and involved in many different diseases. Previous results proved the powerful effect of the cell permeable peptide inhibitor d-JNKI1 (d-retro-inverso form of c-Jun N-terminal kinase-inhibitor) against neuronal death in CNS diseases, but the precise features of this neuroprotection remain unclear. We here performed cell-free and in vitro experiments for a deeper characterization of d-JNKI1 features in physiological conditions. This peptide works by preventing JNK interaction with its c-Jun N-terminal kinase-binding domain (JBD) dependent targets. We here focused on the two JNK upstream MAPKKs, mitogen-activated protein kinase kinase 4 (MKK4) and mitogen-activated protein kinase kinase 7 (MKK7), because they contain a JBD homology domain. We proved that d-JNKI1 prevents MKK4 and MKK7 activity in cell-free and in vitro experiments: these MAPKK could be considered not only activators but also substrates of JNK. This means that d-JNKI1 can interrupt downstream but also upstream events along the JNK cascade, highlighting a new remarkable feature of this peptide. We also showed the lack of any direct effect of the peptide on p38, MEK1, and extracellular signal-regulated kinase (ERK) in cell free, while in rat primary cortical neurons JNK inhibition activates the MEK1-ERK-Ets1/c-Fos cascade. JNK inhibition induces a compensatory effect and leads to ERK activation via MEK1, resulting in an activation of the survival pathway-(MEK1/ERK) as a consequence of the death pathway-(JNK) inhibition. This study should hold as an important step to clarify the strong neuroprotective effect of d-JNKI1.

AMP-activated protein kinase mediates glucocorticoid-induced metabolic changes: a novel mechanism in Cushing's syndrome.

Chronic exposure to glucocorticoid hormones, resulting from either drug treatment or Cushing's syndrome, results in insulin resistance, central obesity, and symptoms similar to the metabolic syndrome. We hypothesized that the major metabolic effects of corticosteroids are mediated by changes in the key metabolic enzyme adenosine monophosphate-activated protein kinase (AMPK) activity. Activation of AMPK is known to stimulate appetite in the hypothalamus and stimulate catabolic processes in the periphery. We assessed AMPK activity and the expression of several metabolic enzymes in the hypothalamus, liver, adipose tissue, and heart of a rat glucocorticoid-excess model as well as in in vitro studies using primary human adipose and primary rat hypothalamic cell cultures, and a human hepatoma cell line treated with dexamethasone and metformin. Glucocorticoid treatment inhibited AMPK activity in rat adipose tissue and heart, while stimulating it in the liver and hypothalamus. Similar data were observed in vitro in the primary adipose and hypothalamic cells and in the liver cell line. Metformin, a known AMPK regulator, prevented the corticosteroid-induced effects on AMPK in human adipocytes and rat hypothalamic neurons. Our data suggest that glucocorticoid-induced changes in AMPK constitute a novel mechanism that could explain the increase in appetite, the deposition of lipids in visceral adipose and hepatic tissue, as well as the cardiac changes that are all characteristic of glucocorticoid excess. Our data suggest that metformin treatment could be effective in preventing the metabolic complications of chronic glucocorticoid excess.

Prediction markets supporting technology assessment

In this thesis, we study the use of prediction markets for technology assessment. We particularly focus on their ability to assess complex issues, the design constraints required for such applications and their efficacy compared to traditional techniques. To achieve this, we followed a design science research paradigm, iteratively developing, instantiating, evaluating and refining the design of our artifacts. This allowed us to make multiple contributions, both practical and theoretical. We first showed that prediction markets are adequate for properly assessing complex issues. We also developed a typology of design factors and design propositions for using these markets in a technology assessment context. Then, we showed that they are able to solve some issues related to the R&D portfolio management process and we proposed a roadmap for their implementation. Finally, by comparing the instantiation and the results of a multi-criteria decision method and a prediction market, we showed that the latter are more efficient, while offering similar results. We also proposed a framework for comparing forecasting methods, to identify the constraints based on contingency factors. In conclusion, our research opens a new field of application of prediction markets and should help hasten their adoption by enterprises. Résumé français: Dans cette thèse, nous étudions l'utilisation de marchés de prédictions pour l'évaluation de nouvelles technologies. Nous nous intéressons plus particulièrement aux capacités des marchés de prédictions à évaluer des problématiques complexes, aux contraintes de conception pour une telle utilisation et à leur efficacité par rapport à des techniques traditionnelles. Pour ce faire, nous avons suivi une approche Design Science, développant itérativement plusieurs prototypes, les instanciant, puis les évaluant avant d'en raffiner la conception. Ceci nous a permis de faire de multiples contributions tant pratiques que théoriques. Nous avons tout d'abord montré que les marchés de prédictions étaient adaptés pour correctement apprécier des problématiques complexes. Nous avons également développé une typologie de facteurs de conception ainsi que des propositions de conception pour l'utilisation de ces marchés dans des contextes d'évaluation technologique. Ensuite, nous avons montré que ces marchés pouvaient résoudre une partie des problèmes liés à la gestion des portes-feuille de projets de recherche et développement et proposons une feuille de route pour leur mise en oeuvre. Finalement, en comparant la mise en oeuvre et les résultats d'une méthode de décision multi-critère et d'un marché de prédiction, nous avons montré que ces derniers étaient plus efficaces, tout en offrant des résultats semblables. Nous proposons également un cadre de comparaison des méthodes d'évaluation technologiques, permettant de cerner au mieux les besoins en fonction de facteurs de contingence. En conclusion, notre recherche ouvre un nouveau champ d'application des marchés de prédiction et devrait permettre d'accélérer leur adoption par les entreprises.

A-Kinase Anchoring Protein Lbc Coordinates a p38 Activating Signaling Complex Controlling Compensatory Cardiac Hypertrophy.

In response to stress, the heart undergoes a remodeling process associated with cardiac hypertrophy that eventually leads to heart failure. A-kinase anchoring proteins (AKAPs) have been shown to coordinate numerous prohypertrophic signaling pathways in cultured cardiomyocytes. However, it remains to be established whether AKAP-based signaling complexes control cardiac hypertrophy and remodeling in vivo. In the current study, we show that AKAP-Lbc assembles a signaling complex composed of the kinases PKN, MLTK, MKK3, and p38α that mediates the activation of p38 in cardiomyocytes in response to stress signals. To address the role of this complex in cardiac remodeling, we generated transgenic mice displaying cardiomyocyte-specific overexpression of a molecular inhibitor of the interaction between AKAP-Lbc and the p38-activating module. Our results indicate that disruption of the AKAP-Lbc/p38 signaling complex inhibits compensatory cardiomyocyte hypertrophy in response to aortic banding-induced pressure overload and promotes early cardiac dysfunction associated with increased myocardial apoptosis, stress gene activation, and ventricular dilation. Attenuation of hypertrophy results from a reduced protein synthesis capacity, as indicated by decreased phosphorylation of 4E-binding protein 1 and ribosomal protein S6. These results indicate that AKAP-Lbc enhances p38-mediated hypertrophic signaling in the heart in response to abrupt increases in the afterload.

Uncertainties in the prediction of spatial variability of soil CO2 emissions and related properties

The soil CO2 emission has high spatial variability because it depends strongly on soil properties. The purpose of this study was to (i) characterize the spatial variability of soil respiration and related properties, (ii) evaluate the accuracy of results of the ordinary kriging method and sequential Gaussian simulation, and (iii) evaluate the uncertainty in predicting the spatial variability of soil CO2 emission and other properties using sequential Gaussian simulations. The study was conducted in a sugarcane area, using a regular sampling grid with 141 points, where soil CO2 emission, soil temperature, air-filled pore space, soil organic matter and soil bulk density were evaluated. All variables showed spatial dependence structure. The soil CO2 emission was positively correlated with organic matter (r = 0.25, p < 0.05) and air-filled pore space (r = 0.27, p < 0.01) and negatively with soil bulk density (r = -0.41, p < 0.01). However, when the estimated spatial values were considered, the air-filled pore space was the variable mainly responsible for the spatial characteristics of soil respiration, with a correlation of 0.26 (p < 0.01). For all variables, individual simulations represented the cumulative distribution functions and variograms better than ordinary kriging and E-type estimates. The greatest uncertainties in predicting soil CO2 emission were associated with areas with the highest estimated values, which produced estimates from 0.18 to 1.85 t CO2 ha-1, according to the different scenarios considered. The knowledge of the uncertainties generated by the different scenarios can be used in inventories of greenhouse gases, to provide conservative estimates of the potential emission of these gases.

Fluid dynamical prediction of changed v1 flow at energies available at the CERN Large Hadron Collider

Substantial collective flow is observed in collisions between lead nuclei at Large Hadron Collider (LHC) as evidenced by the azimuthal correlations in the transverse momentum distributions of the produced particles. Our calculations indicate that the global v1-flow, which at RHIC peaked at negative rapidities (named third flow component or antiflow), now at LHC is going to turn toward forward rapidities (to the same side and direction as the projectile residue). Potentially this can provide a sensitive barometer to estimate the pressure and transport properties of the quark-gluon plasma. Our calculations also take into account the initial state center-of-mass rapidity fluctuations, and demonstrate that these are crucial for v1 simulations. In order to better study the transverse momentum flow dependence we suggest a new "symmetrized" v1S(pt) function, and we also propose a new method to disentangle global v1 flow from the contribution generated by the random fluctuations in the initial state. This will enhance the possibilities of studying the collective Global v1 flow both at the STAR Beam Energy Scan program and at LHC.

Prediction of Infant Drug Exposure Through Breastfeeding: Population PK Modeling and Simulation of Fluoxetine Exposure.

The likelihood of significant exposure to drugs in infants through breast milk is poorly defined, given the difficulties of conducting pharmacokinetics (PK) studies. Using fluoxetine (FX) as an example, we conducted a proof-of-principle study applying population PK (popPK) modeling and simulation to estimate drug exposure in infants through breast milk. We simulated data for 1,000 mother-infant pairs, assuming conservatively that the FX clearance in an infant is 20% of the allometrically adjusted value in adults. The model-generated estimate of the milk-to-plasma ratio for FX (mean: 0.59) was consistent with those reported in other studies. The median infant-to-mother ratio of FX steady-state plasma concentrations predicted by the simulation was 8.5%. Although the disposition of the active metabolite, norfluoxetine, could not be modeled, popPK-informed simulation may be valid for other drugs, particularly those without active metabolites, thereby providing a practical alternative to conventional PK studies for exposure risk assessment in this population.

Validation of a clinical prediction score for ruling out coronary heart disease in primary care patients with chest pain.

Background: A patient's chest pain raises concern for the possibility of coronary heart disease (CHD). An easy to use clinical prediction rule has been derived from the TOPIC study in Lausanne. Our objective is to validate this clinical score for ruling out CHD in primary care patients with chest pain. Methods: This secondary analysis used data collected from a oneyear follow-up cohort study attending 76 GPs in Germany. Patients attending their GP with chest pain were questioned on their age, gender, duration of chest pain (1-60 min), sternal pain location, pain increases with exertion, absence of tenderness point at palpation, cardiovascular risks factors, and personal history of cardiovascular disease. Area under the curve (ROC), sensitivity and specificity of the Lausanne CHD score were calculated for patients with full data. Results: 1190 patients were included. Full data was available for 509 patients (42.8%). Missing data was not related to having CHD (p = 0.397) or having a cardiovascular risk factor (p = 0.275). 76 (14.9%) were diagnosed with a CHD. Prevalence of CHD were respectively of 68/344 (19.8%), 2/62 (3.2%), 6/103 (5.8%) in the high, intermediate and low risk category. ROC was of 72.9 (CI95% 66.8; 78.9). Ruling out patients with low risk has a sensitivity of 92.1% (CI95% 83.0; 96.7) and a specificity of 22.4% (CI95% 18.6%; 26.7%). Conclusion: The Lausanne CHD score shows reasonably good sensitivity and can be used to rule out coronary events in patients with chest pain. Patients at risk of CHD for other rarer reasons should nevertheless also be investigated.

Ruling out coronary artery disease in primary care: development and validation of a simple prediction rule.

BACKGROUND: Chest pain can be caused by various conditions, with life-threatening cardiac disease being of greatest concern. Prediction scores to rule out coronary artery disease have been developed for use in emergency settings. We developed and validated a simple prediction rule for use in primary care. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional diagnostic study in 74 primary care practices in Germany. Primary care physicians recruited all consecutive patients who presented with chest pain (n = 1249) and recorded symptoms and findings for each patient (derivation cohort). An independent expert panel reviewed follow-up data obtained at six weeks and six months on symptoms, investigations, hospital admissions and medications to determine the presence or absence of coronary artery disease. Adjusted odds ratios of relevant variables were used to develop a prediction rule. We calculated measures of diagnostic accuracy for different cut-off values for the prediction scores using data derived from another prospective primary care study (validation cohort). RESULTS: The prediction rule contained five determinants (age/sex, known vascular disease, patient assumes pain is of cardiac origin, pain is worse during exercise, and pain is not reproducible by palpation), with the score ranging from 0 to 5 points. The area under the curve (receiver operating characteristic curve) was 0.87 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.83-0.91) for the derivation cohort and 0.90 (95% CI 0.87-0.93) for the validation cohort. The best overall discrimination was with a cut-off value of 3 (positive result 3-5 points; negative result <or= 2 points), which had a sensitivity of 87.1% (95% CI 79.9%-94.2%) and a specificity of 80.8% (77.6%-83.9%). INTERPRETATION: The prediction rule for coronary artery disease in primary care proved to be robust in the validation cohort. It can help to rule out coronary artery disease in patients presenting with chest pain in primary care.

Artificial neural networks applied for soil class prediction in mountainous landscape of the Serra do Mar¹

Soil information is needed for managing the agricultural environment. The aim of this study was to apply artificial neural networks (ANNs) for the prediction of soil classes using orbital remote sensing products, terrain attributes derived from a digital elevation model and local geology information as data sources. This approach to digital soil mapping was evaluated in an area with a high degree of lithologic diversity in the Serra do Mar. The neural network simulator used in this study was JavaNNS and the backpropagation learning algorithm. For soil class prediction, different combinations of the selected discriminant variables were tested: elevation, declivity, aspect, curvature, curvature plan, curvature profile, topographic index, solar radiation, LS topographic factor, local geology information, and clay mineral indices, iron oxides and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) derived from an image of a Landsat-7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) sensor. With the tested sets, best results were obtained when all discriminant variables were associated with geological information (overall accuracy 93.2 - 95.6 %, Kappa index 0.924 - 0.951, for set 13). Excluding the variable profile curvature (set 12), overall accuracy ranged from 93.9 to 95.4 % and the Kappa index from 0.932 to 0.948. The maps based on the neural network classifier were consistent and similar to conventional soil maps drawn for the study area, although with more spatial details. The results show the potential of ANNs for soil class prediction in mountainous areas with lithological diversity.