Hurricanes and climate: the U.S. CLIVAR working group on hurricanes

While a quantitative climate theory of tropical cyclone formation remains elusive, considerable progress has been made recently in our ability to simulate tropical cyclone climatologies and understand the relationship between climate and tropical cyclone formation. Climate models are now able to simulate a realistic rate of global tropical cyclone formation, although simulation of the Atlantic tropical cyclone climatology remains challenging unless horizontal resolutions finer than 50 km are employed. This article summarizes published research from the idealized experiments of the Hurricane Working Group of U.S. CLIVAR (CLImate VARiability and predictability of the ocean-atmosphere system). This work, combined with results from other model simulations, has strengthened relationships between tropical cyclone formation rates and climate variables such as mid-tropospheric vertical velocity, with decreased climatological vertical velocities leading to decreased tropical cyclone formation. Systematic differences are shown between experiments in which only sea surface temperature is increased versus experiments where only atmospheric carbon dioxide is increased, with the carbon dioxide experiments more likely to demonstrate the decrease in tropical cyclone numbers previously shown to be a common response of climate models in a warmer climate. Experiments where the two effects are combined also show decreases in numbers, but these tend to be less for models that demonstrate a strong tropical cyclone response to increased sea surface temperatures. Further experiments are proposed that may improve our understanding of the relationship between climate and tropical cyclone formation, including experiments with two-way interaction between the ocean and the atmosphere and variations in atmospheric aerosols.

Observed climate variations and change in Vietnam

In this study, observed changes of temperature, rainfall, and some extreme climate indices in Vietnam were investigated by using daily observations during the period 1961-2012. The observed data were collected from 80 meteorological stations for temperature, and from 170 stations for rainfall over the seven climatological sub-regions of Vietnam. Results show that there were insignificant differences between the trends of changes obtained from the 1961-2011 and 1979-2012 periods. Near-surface temperature, including mean (T2m), maximum (Tx) and minimum temperature (Tm), increased consistently at almost all stations. Tm increased faster than Tx. Temperature also increased faster in winter than in summer. Consequently, the number of hot days and warm nights increased whereas the number of cold days, cold nights and cool days decreased. In the northern regions, temperature tended to slightly decrease in May but significantly increased in June. Annual rainfall decreased in the northern area of Vietnam, while it increased at almost all stations in the central regions, and had insignificant trends in the southern sub-region. Changes in some extreme rainfall indices were likely consistent with changes in annual rainfall. Monthly rainfall in the central regions significantly increased from August to December. Rainfall generally increased in May and decreased in June over almost all country.

Climate change projections and selected impacts for Vietnam

In September 2013, the 5th Assessment Report (5AR) of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has been released. Taking the 5AR cli-mate change scenarios into account, the World Bank published an earli-er report on climate change and its impacts on selected hot spot re-gions, including Southeast Asia. Currently, dynamical and statistical-dynamical downscaling efforts are underway to obtain higher resolution and more robust regional climate change projections for tropical South-east Asia, including Vietnam. Such initiatives are formalized under the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Coordinated Regional Dynamic Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) East Asia and Southeast Asia and also take place in climate change impact projects such as the joint Vietnam-ese-German project “Environmental and Water Protection Technologies of Coastal Zones in Vietnam (EWATEC-COAST)”. In this contribution, the lat-est assessments for changes in temperature, precipitation, sea level, and tropical cyclones (TCs) under the 5AR Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios 4.5 and 8.5 are reviewed. Special emphasis is put on changes in extreme events like heat waves and/or heavy precipita-tion. A regional focus is Vietnam south of 16°N. A continued increase in mean near surface temperature is projected, reaching up to 5°C at the end of this century in northern Vietnam un-der the high greenhouse-gas forcing scenario RCP8.5. Overall, project-ed changes in annual precipitation are small, but there is a tendency of more rainfall in the boreal winter dry season. Unprecedented heat waves and an increase in extreme precipitation events are projected by both global and regional climate models. Globally, TCs are projected to decrease in number, but an increase in intensity of peak winds and rain-fall in the inner core region is estimated. Though an assessment of changes in land-falling frequency in Vietnam is uncertain due to difficul-ties in assessing changes in TC tracks, some work indicates a reduction in the number of land-falling TCs in Vietnam. Sea level may rise by 75-100 cm until the end of the century with the Vietnamese coastline experienc-ing 10-15% higher rise than on global average. Given the large rice and aquaculture production in the Mekong and Red River Deltas, that are both prone to TC-related storm surges and flooding, this poses a challenge to foodsecurity and protection of coastal population and assets.

Vertical structure and physical processes of the Madden-Julian oscillation: exploring key model physics in climate simulations

Aimed at reducing deficiencies in representing the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) in general circulation models (GCMs), a global model evaluation project on vertical structure and physical processes of the MJO was coordinated. In this paper, results from the climate simulation component of this project are reported. It is shown that the MJO remains a great challenge in these latest generation GCMs. The systematic eastward propagation of the MJO is only well simulated in about one-fourth of the total participating models. The observed vertical westward tilt with altitude of the MJO is well simulated in good MJO models, but not in the poor ones. Damped Kelvin wave responses to the east of convection in the lower troposphere could be responsible for the missing MJO preconditioning process in these poor MJO models. Several process-oriented diagnostics were conducted to discriminate key processes for realistic MJO simulations. While large-scale rainfall partition and low-level mean zonal winds over the Indo-Pacific in a model are not found to be closely associated with its MJO skill, two metrics, including the low-level relative humidity difference between high and low rain events and seasonal mean gross moist stability, exhibit statistically significant correlations with the MJO performance. It is further indicated that increased cloud-radiative feedback tends to be associated with reduced amplitude of intraseasonal variability, which is incompatible with the radiative instability theory previously proposed for the MJO. Results in this study confirm that inclusion of air-sea interaction can lead to significant improvement in simulating the MJO.

Generalized convective quasi-equilibrium principle

A generalization of Arakawa and Schubert's convective quasi-equilibrium principle is presented for a closure formulation of mass-flux convection parameterization. The original principle is based on the budget of the cloud work function. This principle is generalized by considering the budget for a vertical integral of an arbitrary convection-related quantity. The closure formulation includes Arakawa and Schubert's quasi-equilibrium, as well as both CAPE and moisture closures as special cases. The formulation also includes new possibilities for considering vertical integrals that are dependent on convective-scale variables, such as the moisture within convection. The generalized convective quasi-equilibrium is defined by a balance between large-scale forcing and convective response for a given vertically-integrated quantity. The latter takes the form of a convolution of a kernel matrix and a mass-flux spectrum, as in the original convective quasi-equilibrium. The kernel reduces to a scalar when either a bulk formulation is adopted, or only large-scale variables are considered within the vertical integral. Various physical implications of the generalized closure are discussed. These include the possibility that precipitation might be considered as a potentially-significant contribution to the large-scale forcing. Two dicta are proposed as guiding physical principles for the specifying a suitable vertically-integrated quantity.

Simulation study of cascade heat pump for solar combisystems

This paper focuses on the study of cascade heat pump systems in combination with solar thermal for the production of hot water and space heating in single family houses with relatively high heating demand. The system concept was developed by Ratiotherm GmbH and simulated with TRNSYS 17. The basic cascade system uses the heat pump and solar collectors in parallel operation while a further development is the inclusion of an intermediate store that enables the possibility of serial/parallel operation and the use of low temperature solar heat. Parametric studies in terms of compressor size, refrigerant pair and size of intermediate heat exchanger were carried out for the optimization of the basic system. The system configurations were simulated for the complete year and compared to a reference of a solar thermal system combined with an air source heat pump. The results show ~13% savings in electricity use for all three cascade systems compared to the reference. However, the complexity of the systems is different and thus higher capital costs are expected.

Exclusão social: gestão estratégica de pessoas em duas subsidiárias de uma empresa multinacional

The present study of case empirically investigates the existence of indicators that suggest the social exclusion preoccupation from the organizations with a strategic management of human resources focus. The objects of study are two subsidiaries of a multinational enterprise in emergency and first-aid services area. One of them is Portuguese and the other is a Brazilian one. This exploratory research has used a sectional way with a longitudinal perspective, since it has considered a specific verified data referring to 2004 and 2005 years, beyond the deeper interviews with actual managers to an evaluation of these studied perception and its authentication. Our indicators identification sources were principally the individual and social rights and duties broaching and the fundamental guarantees disposed in the Brazilian and Portuguese Constitutions as such as the European Constitution project. The results appoint to great differences of management between both subsidiaries, being the Brazilian one closer to our research proposes, as such as suggest us that the human resource areas, still acting in an instrumentalist way, establish a great barrier to better practices in social inclusion and they would be unprepared for a management with the focus in the employees. Although our study has been realized in a specific activity enterprise, we believe that our results can stimulate the realization of other investigations with the same objectives. In this way, we contribute to a better comprehension of the social exclusion causes and the organizations participations in this process.

Mídia, racionalidade e formação : uma abordagem filosófica

Esta pesquisa busca compreender o potencial de influência da mídia no processo formativo do ser humano na sociedade contemporânea. A abordagem é filosófica e, por isso, o enfoque priorizado na análise é o estudo da racionalidade nos diferentes períodos analisados. O ponto de partida foi buscar em Platão e Aristóteles a compreensão de Paidéia, pela qual se da a formação humana e do cidadão. Assim, mesmo acontecendo uma distinção entre as esferas pública e privada, a idéia formativa é extensiva aos dois âmbitos, principalmente a pública. No pensamento moderno, especialmente em Rousseau e Kant, a intenção é formar um homem virtuoso que seja ético para a sociedade. A vivência de sua cidadania funda-se em princípios racionais que, assim, exigem o exercício de posturas públicas e coletivas. Na contemporaneidade, a partir de Adorno e Horkheimer, a mídia é o novo elemento de forte influência no processo formativo das pessoas. Assim, racionalidade e mídia passam a se inter-relacionar simbioticamente e, por isso, necessitam ser analisados conjuntamente. Tal simbiose foi avaliada como sendo negativa para o esclarecimento do homem, tanto que a denúncia de Adorno e Horkheimer na Dialética do Esclarecimento apontou de que a racionalidade que sustenta a mídia é a mesma que restringe a ação do ser humano na sociedade. Nesse sentido, a racionalidade transforma-se num instrumento que serve ao interesse do mercado econômico, levando, o homem à barbárie ao invés de conduzi-lo a um estado de humanidade. Habermas avança na reflexão sobre a racionalidade, abandona a filosofia centrada no sujeito e desenvolve uma racionalidade comunicativa, a partir de uma filosofia da linguagem. O caráter discursivo dado à razão clarifica a influência da mídia na medida em que ele desenvolve, na sua teoria, as diferentes formas da racionalidade acontecer na sociedade contemporânea: a estratégica, normativa, dramatúrgica e a comunicativa que leva ao entendimento. São explicitações importantes que ajudam a compreender o potencial formativo da mídia e a dinâmica de como ela se alicerça na sociedade. Assim, a racionalidade estratégica e a comunicativa que leva ao entendimento apresentam-se no mundo do sistema e no mundo da vida, respectivamente. A partir desse fundamento teórico habermasiano pode-se compreender o processo midiático como acontecendo na esfera pública em forma de visibilidade e discursividade. Concretamente isso significa ter um instrumental de análise que possibilita compreender com mais lucidez os diferentes diálogos que resultam da inter-relação entre mídia e sociedade. Compreender a mídia na sua expressão em forma de visibilidade e discursividade possibilita uma reflexão mais ampla, profunda e lúcida em torno do papel que essa instituição desempenha na contemporaneidade ocidental e principalmente brasileira no processo formativo.

Museus infantis : uma questão contemporânea

Esta dissertação consiste em um estudo sobre os museus infantis, buscando identificar e analisar um conjunto de questões contemporâneas que hoje participam do ambiente museal. Para a exploração das implicações arquitetônicas desta proposta museológica, foram selecionados três edifícios projetados para abrigar museus infantis: Kodomo no Yakata, de Tadao Ando, no Japão, Lied Discovery Children’s Museum, de Antoine Predock, nos Estados Unidos; e Papalote Museo del Niño, de Ricardo Legorreta, no México.

Aquametria por microondas : desenvolvimento de transdutor em microfita

Este trabalho apresenta uma metodologia para o desenvolvimento de transdutor de microondas para a mensuração de umidade em produtos agrícolas com a utilização de estruturas planares em microfita. O termo aquametria é definido na literatura como a área da instrumentação responsável por mensurar a quantidade de água presente em sólidos e líquidos via identificação de suas propriedades dielétricas. São apresentados alguns aspectos relativos à aquametria, seguidos do modelo matemático e numérico da interação das ondas eletromagnéticas no meio dielétrico com perdas. O modelo matemático é então especializado para dar conta de uma microfita com uma amostra úmida superposta. A partir desses resultados, são apresentadas três propostas de transdutores que buscam mensurar a permissividade dielétrica complexa efetiva do conjunto microfita mais amostra. Os transdutores propostos são então simulados com a aplicação do método de diferenças finitas no domínio tempo, objetivando não só verificar a qualidade dos mesmos, mas também validar o modelo matemático.

Análise da sensibilidade do biodiesel B5 em frotas de transporte coletivo com motorização diesel

The aim of this study was investigate the consolidation of the biodiesel fuel used in (a) engines of urban and intercity bus companies, (b) a stationary engine. It was necessary to investigate and analyze, technologically, if the biodiesel fuels were presenting troubleshooting relative to wear of parts lied to fuel and to evaluate the consumption fluctuations of this fuel. The urban and intercity bus companies, localized in Natal, Rio Grande do Norte state, Brazil, had 41 and 12 vehicles, respectively. It were analyzed datasheet of each one vehicle during three years, since 2008 until 2010 and were interviewed the management of the maintenance team of bus companies relative to aspects concerning the substitution of the diesel fuel by the B5 biodiesel. The second aim of this study was visually inspect the wear of the parts directly lied to combustion process. For this reason, it was investigated a stationary engine, manufactured by Branco BD5, 5 HP of power, fueled by (a) diesel, (b) biodiesel B5, (c) biodiesel B20 and (d) diesel or biodiesel, both contaminated by distilled water. In this engine, its power utilizing biodiesel B5 versus diesel was lower about 5.2% and, in the investigated case of B20 versus diesel, it was lower around 11.5%

Radial Plasma Dynamic in Sequential Pinches

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Families of special Weierstrass points

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Floristic composition of the tree stratum of a semideciduous mesophytic forest in the municipality of Jahu, SP, Brazil

A floristic study was carried out in an area of semideciduous mesophytic forest, lied in the municipality of Jahu, São Paulo State, Brazil. Due to the fact of the forest be crossed by three small rivers, for the sampling process, the forest was divided in two sampling areas: Area I (under the influence of the rivers) and Area II (without this influence). Differences in the abundance of some species between the two sampling areas were observed.

Surgical treatment of erythroleukoplakia in lower lip with carbon dioxide laser radiation

Erythroplakia is considered to represent a premalignant condition and is felt to be at high risk to progress to oral cancer development. When the lesion presents with red and white mucosal alterations concomitantly, the term erythroleukoplakia is used. However, in erythroleukoplakia lesions, the red or erythroplakia areas have been shown to be most likely to demonstrate dysplastic changes compared to the white hyperkeratotic areas. We present a case of patient with erythroleukoplakia involving the lower lip that was treating with carbon dioxide laser radiation (CO2) with 0.8 mm focus, 5 W, power density of 2.5 W/cm(2) in continuous. After the surgery, the vaporized surface was protected with a fibrinolisine + chloramphenicol cream. To date, after 6 months, there has been no clinically evident recurrence on the vermilion area. The functional and esthetic results observed were judged to be excellent.