Developing an integrated hydrograph separation and lumped modelling approach to quantifying hydrological pathways in Irish river catchments

An appreciation of the quantity of streamflow derived from the main hydrological pathways involved in transporting diffuse contaminants is critical when addressing a wide range of water resource management issues. In order to assess hydrological pathway contributions to streams, it is necessary to provide feasible upper and lower bounds for flows in each pathway. An important first step in this process is to provide reliable estimates of the slower responding groundwater pathways and subsequently the quicker overland and interflow pathways. This paper investigates the effectiveness of a multi-faceted approach applying different hydrograph separation techniques, supplemented by lumped hydrological modelling, for calculating the Baseflow Index (BFI), for the development of an integrated approach to hydrograph separation. A semi-distributed, lumped and deterministic rainfall runoff model known as NAM has been applied to ten catchments (ranging from 5 to 699 km2). While this modelling approach is useful as a validation method, NAM itself is also an important tool for investigation. These separation techniques provide a large variation in BFI, a difference of 0.741 predicted for BFI in a catchment with the less reliable fixed and sliding interval methods and local minima turning point methods included. This variation is reduced to 0.167 with these methods omitted. The Boughton and Eckhardt algorithms, while quite subjective in their use, provide quick and easily implemented approaches for obtaining physically realistic hydrograph separations. It is observed that while the different separation techniques give varying BFI values for each of the catchments, a recharge coefficient approach developed in Ireland, when applied in conjunction with the Master recession Curve Tabulation method, predict estimates in agreement with those obtained using the NAM model, and these estimates are also consistent with the study catchments’ geology. These two separation methods, in conjunction with the NAM model, were selected to form an integrated approach to assessing BFI in catchments.

Policy difference and policy ownership under UK devolution: social housing policy in Northern Ireland

This paper assesses the impact of UK devolution on social housing policy in Northern Ireland from 1999 until 2011, with a particular focus on the administration from May 2007 until April 2011, the first in which the elected elements of the process functioned for the entire period. Housing is one of the responsibilities of the Minister for Social Development. Northern Ireland has had a political commitment to the provision of good quality social housing for many years, both before and after the 1998 Good Friday/ Belfast Agreement and the establishment of the Northern Ireland Assembly and Executive in 1999.
The paper begins with an analysis of factors contributing to policy difference within the United Kingdom under the 1999 devolution settlement, noting that these factors may contribute either to policy convergence or divergence between the four UK jurisdictions. There follow reflections on the concept of ‘policy ownership’ in multi-level states and the benefits of this analytical approach for consideration of housing policy under UK devolution. A review of social housing policy since 1999 is followed by discussion of three key issues from the 2007-11 administration: the governance of social housing; the procurement of new social housing; and improving access to shared space and a shared future. The paper concludes that, in Northern Ireland, the 2007-11 administration marked a transition between a technocratic past and the future policy ownership of the social housing policy field by locally elected politicians. Reflections on wider implications for UK social policy, for UK devolution, and for the complex governance structures of devolved and federal states are also included.

The Anti-Migratory Effects of FKBPL and Its Peptide Derivative, AD-01: Regulation of CD44 and the Cytoskeletal Pathway

FK506 binding protein-like (FKBPL) and its peptide derivatives exert potent anti-angiogenic activity and and control tumour growth in xenograft models, when administered exogenously. However, the role of endogenous FKBPL in angiogenesis is not well characterised. Here we investigated the molecular effects of the endogenous protein and its peptide derivative, AD-01, leading to their anti-migratory activity. Inhibition of secreted FKBPL using a blocking antibody or siRNA-mediated knockdown of FKBPL accelerated the migration of human microvascular endothelial cells (HMEC-1). Furthermore, MDA-MB-231 tumour cells stably overexpressing FKBPL inhibited tumour vascular development suggesting that FKBPL secreted from tumour cells could inhibit angiogenesis. Whilst FKBPL and AD-01 target CD44, the nature of this interaction is not known and here we have further interrogated this aspect. We have demonstrated that FKBPL and AD-01 bind to the CD44 receptor and inhibit tumour cell migration in a CD44 dependant manner; CD44 knockdown abrogated AD-01 binding as well as its anti-migratory activity. Interestingly, FKBPL overexpression and knockdown or treatment with AD-01, regulated CD44 expression, suggesting a co-regulatory pathway for these two proteins. Downstream of CD44, alterations in the actin cytoskeleton, indicated by intense cortical actin staining and a lack of cell spreading and communication were observed following treatment with AD-01, explaining the anti-migratory phenotype. Concomitantly, AD-01 inhibited Rac-1 activity, up-regulated RhoA and the actin binding proteins, profilin and vinculin. Thus the anti-angiogenic protein, FKBPL, and AD-01, offer a promising and alternative approach for targeting both CD44 positive tumours and vasculature networks.

Complex pattern of genetic structuring in the Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.) of the River Foyle system in northwest Ireland: disentangling the evolutionary signal from population stochasticity

Little is known about the microevolutionary processes shaping within river population genetic structure of aquatic organisms characterized by high levels of homing and spawning site fidelity. Using a microsatellite panel, we observed complex and highly significant levels of intrariver population genetic substructure and Isolation-by-Distance, in the Atlantic salmon stock of a large river system. Two evolutionary models have been considered explaining mechanisms promoting genetic substructuring in Atlantic salmon, the member-vagrant and metapopulation models. We show that both models can be simultaneously used to explain patterns and levels of population structuring within the Foyle system. We show that anthropogenic factors have had a large influence on contemporary population structure observed. In an analytical development, we found that the frequently used estimator of genetic differentiation, F-ST, routinely underestimated genetic differentiation by a factor three to four compared to the equivalent statistic Jost's D-est (Jost 2008). These statistics also showed a near-perfect correlation. Despite ongoing discussions regarding the usefulness of "adjusted" F-ST statistics, we argue that these could be useful to identify and quantify qualitative differences between populations, which are important from management and conservation perspectives as an indicator of existence of biologically significant variation among tributary populations or a warning of critical environmental damage.

“Boundary-setting as a core activity in complex public systems”

Title: Boundary-setting as a core activity in complex public systems
Authors: Joanne Murphy & Mary Lee Rhodes

The definition of the boundary of a system is at the core of any systems approach (Midgley 2000; 2003). By defining boundaries we enable – and delimit – the range of outcomes sought and the actions and resources that can be brought to bear. In complex adaptive systems (CAS) analysis, the conceptualisaion and definition of boundaries is particularly challenging as they are constantly undergoing redefinition through agent action, interaction and entry/exit. (Rhodes et al 2011). The concept of ‘boundaries’ appears regularly in a wide range of literature around public management, administration, geopolitics, regeneration and organisational development. Discussions around boundaries focus on many things from concrete physical manifestations and barriers, to virtual interfaces between one organisational unit and another, or even entirely theoretical demarcations between different schools of thought (Kaboolian, 1998, Levi-Faur, 2004, Agranoff & McGuire, 2004).

However, managing ‘beyond’ such boundaries is a routinely recurring aspiration that transcends sectors and local concerns. Unsurprisingly then, there is an increasing understanding of the need to acknowledge and manage such boundaries (whether they be physical, social or organisational) within public management as a discipline (Currie et al 2007, Fitzsimmons and White, 1997, Murtagh, 2002). This paper explores the impact of boundaries on public management strategic decision-making in the sectors of urban regeneration and healthcare. In particular, it focuses on demarcations to physical space, communal identity and within professional relationships in these sectors.

The first section describes the research that gave rise to the paper and the cases examined. Next we briefly define what we mean by boundaries. We explore issues that have emerged from our analysis of urban regeneration and health care singularly, before looking at how the concept of boundaries is a recurrent concern across the sectors. The main contribution of the paper is an exploration of how a CAS lens can bring a new insight into the concept of boundaries and decision-making in the two sets of case studies. This discussion will concentrate on initial conditions, bifurcation and adaptation as key CAS factors in relation to boundaries. We conclude with a brief discussion on the benefits of a CAS lens to an analysis of boundaries in public management decision-making.
References:

Agranoff, R. and McGuire, M. (2003) Collaborative Public Management: Strategies for Local Government. Washington, DC: Georgetown Univ. Press.

Currie, G., Lockett, A. (2007) “A critique of transformational leadership: moral, professional & contingent dimensions of leadership within public services organizations”. Human Relations 60: 341-370.

Fitzsimmons and White, (1997) "Crossing boundaries: communication between professional groups", Journal of Management in Medicine, Vol. 11 Iss: 2, pp.96 – 101

Kaboolian, L. (1998) “The New Public Management: Challenging the Boundaries of the Management vs. Administration Debate” Public Administration Review Vol. 58, No. 3 pp.189-193

Levi-Faur D. and Vigoda-Gadot Eran (eds) (2004) International Public Policy and Management: Policy Learning Beyond Regional, Cultural and Political Boundaries, Marcel Dekker,
Midgley, G. (ed) (2003) Systems Thinking. London: Sage Publications

Midgley, G. (2000) Systemic Intervention: Philosophy, Methodology and Practice. New York, NY: Kluwer.

Murtagh, B. (2002). The Politics of Territory: Policy and Segregation in Northern Ireland. Basingstoke, Palgrave.

Rhodes, ML, Joanne Murphy, Jenny Muir, John Murray (2011) Public Management & Complexity Theory: Richer Decision Making in Irish Public Services, UK: Routledge

Genetic association suggests that SMOC1 mediates between prenatal sex hormones and digit ratio

Men and women differ statistically in the relative lengths of their index and ring fingers; and the ratio of these lengths has been used as a biomarker for prenatal testosterone. The ratio has been correlated with a wide range of traits and conditions including prostate cancer, obesity, autism, ADHD, and sexual orientation. In a genome-wide association study of 979 healthy adults, we find that digit ratio is strongly associated with variation upstream of SMOC1 (rs4902759: P = 1.41 × 10(-8)) and a meta-analysis of this and an independent study shows a probability of P = 1.5 × 10(-11). The protein encoded by SMOC1 has recently been shown to play a critical role in limb development; its expression in prostate tissue is dependent on sex hormones, and it has been implicated in the sexually dimorphic development of the gonads. We put forward the hypothesis that SMOC1 provides a link between prenatal hormone exposure and digit ratio.

Neoliberalising a divided society? The regeneration of Crumlin Road Gaol and Girdwood Park, North Belfast

Regeneration projects take place within complex local policy environments and are also influenced by the global doctrine of neoliberalism, although the degree of influence will vary depending upon the historical, economic, social and political context. This article reviews and reflects upon the complexity of a neoliberalising policy environment in the regeneration of the divided city of Belfast. The territorial conflict in Northern Ireland has been expressed spatially and has thus affected urban regeneration. These issues are illustrated by a case study of the regeneration of the Crumlin Road Gaol and Girdwood Park in North Belfast, which sought to include both a neoliberalised economic development agenda and efforts to improve community relations through the promotion of shared space. The paper asks whether the management of community cohesion in cities experiencing conflict requires state intervention that at times goes beyond the ‘roll out’ and ‘roll back’ distinction found in neoliberal theory.

"Getting-by', Coping and Resilience in Difficult Times: Initial Findings

A report provided the initial findings from a research project that examined the resilience of households in Northern Ireland. Drawing on baseline survey data and qualitative interviews with households across four neighbourhoods, it outlined a range of challenges and the strategies used by households to 'get by'. The report said that, for these households, resilience was not about 'bouncing back', 'flourishing', or 'thriving' in the face of adversity, but was about not being overcome, 'getting-by', enduring, surviving, just 'getting on with things', and 'keeping their heads above the water'. The report noted the susceptibility of households to future stressors, such as welfare reform, especially those on means-tested benefits or with long-term illness or disability. Place, and relationships with family and friends, appeared to be important for resilience and future work would investigate this further. The report highlighted issues around the measurement of resilience and noted the importance of qualitative work.

Neonatal intensive care and late preterm infants:Health and family functioning at three years

Background: Late preterm infants (LPIs), born at 34 + 0 to 36 + 6 weeks of gestation contribute a significant proportion of all neonatal intensive care (NIC) admissions and are regarded as being at risk of adverse outcomes compared to term-born infants.

Aim: To explore the health outcomes and family functioning of LPIs who required neonatal intensive care, at three years of age.

Study design and subjects: This cohort study included 225 children born late preterm, between 1 January and 31 December 2006 in Northern Ireland. Children admitted for NIC (study group, n = 103) were compared with children who did not require NIC or who required special care only for up to three days (comparison group, n = 122).

Outcome measures
Health outcomes were measured using the Health Status Questionnaire, health service usage by parent report and family functioning using the PedsQL™ Family Impact Module.

Results: LPIs who required NIC revealed similar health outcomes at three years in comparison to those who did not. Despite this, more parents of LPIs who required NIC reported visiting their GP and medical specialists during their child's third year of life. Differences in family functioning were also observed with mothers of LPIs who required NIC reporting, significantly lower levels of social and physical functioning, increased difficulties with communication and increased levels of worry.

Conclusions: LPIs were observed to have similar health outcomes at three years of age regardless of NIC requirement. The increase in GP and medical specialist visits and family functioning difficulties observed among those infants who required NIC merits further investigation.

Abbreviations: LPI, late preterm infant; NIC, neonatal intensive care; HSQ, Health Status Questionnaire; GP, general practitioner