Outcomes of the South African National Antiretroviral Treatment Programme for children: the IeDEA Southern Africa collaboration

OBJECTIVES: To assess paediatric antiretroviral treatment (ART) outcomes and their associations from a collaborative cohort representing 20% of the South African national treatment programme. DESIGN AND SETTING: Multi-cohort study of 7 public sector paediatric ART programmes in Gauteng, Western Cape and KwaZulu-Natal provinces. SUBJECTS: ART-naive children (< or = 16 years) who commenced treatment with > or = 3 antiretroviral drugs before March 2008. OUTCOME MEASURES: Time to death or loss to follow-up were assessed using the Kaplan-Meier method. Associations between baseline characteristics and mortality were assessed with Cox proportional hazards models stratified by site. Immune status, virological suppression and growth were described in relation to duration of ART. RESULTS: The median (interquartile range) age of 6 078 children with 9 368 child-years of follow-up was 43 (15 - 83) months, with 29% being < 18 months. Most were severely ill at ART initiation. More than 75% of children were appropriately monitored at 6-monthly intervals with viral load suppression (< 400 copies/ml) being 80% or above throughout 36 months of treatment. Mortality and retention in care at 3 years were 7.7% (95% confidence interval 7.0 - 8.6%) and 81.4% (80.1 - 82.6%), respectively. Together with young age, all markers of disease severity (low weight-for-age z-score, high viral load, severe immune suppression, stage 3/4 disease and anaemia) were independently associated with mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Dramatic clinical benefit for children accessing the national ART programme is demonstrated. Higher mortality in infants and those with advanced disease highlights the need for early diagnosis of HIV infection and commencement of ART.

Identification of pathogen and host-response markers correlated with periodontal disease

BACKGROUND: Periodontitis is the major cause of tooth loss in adults and is linked to systemic illnesses, such as cardiovascular disease and stroke. The development of rapid point-of-care (POC) chairside diagnostics has the potential for the early detection of periodontal infection and progression to identify incipient disease and reduce health care costs. However, validation of effective diagnostics requires the identification and verification of biomarkers correlated with disease progression. This clinical study sought to determine the ability of putative host- and microbially derived biomarkers to identify periodontal disease status from whole saliva and plaque biofilm. METHODS: One hundred human subjects were equally recruited into a healthy/gingivitis group or a periodontitis population. Whole saliva was collected from all subjects and analyzed using antibody arrays to measure the levels of multiple proinflammatory cytokines and bone resorptive/turnover markers. RESULTS: Salivary biomarker data were correlated to comprehensive clinical, radiographic, and microbial plaque biofilm levels measured by quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) for the generation of models for periodontal disease identification. Significantly elevated levels of matrix metalloproteinase (MMP)-8 and -9 were found in subjects with advanced periodontitis with Random Forest importance scores of 7.1 and 5.1, respectively. The generation of receiver operating characteristic curves demonstrated that permutations of salivary biomarkers and pathogen biofilm values augmented the prediction of disease category. Multiple combinations of salivary biomarkers (especially MMP-8 and -9 and osteoprotegerin) combined with red-complex anaerobic periodontal pathogens (such as Porphyromonas gingivalis or Treponema denticola) provided highly accurate predictions of periodontal disease category. Elevated salivary MMP-8 and T. denticola biofilm levels displayed robust combinatorial characteristics in predicting periodontal disease severity (area under the curve = 0.88; odds ratio = 24.6; 95% confidence interval: 5.2 to 116.5). CONCLUSIONS: Using qPCR and sensitive immunoassays, we identified host- and bacterially derived biomarkers correlated with periodontal disease. This approach offers significant potential for the discovery of biomarker signatures useful in the development of rapid POC chairside diagnostics for oral and systemic diseases. Studies are ongoing to apply this approach to the longitudinal predictions of disease activity.

Rick Henderson and Mike Pochin: A Right Result? Advocacy, justice and empowerment

As Henderson and Pochin point out in the introduction to their book, recent years have seen the concept of advocacy given increasing prominence in central and local government policy in the UK. It made an appearance in local community care and long-stay hospital closure plans. It features in reforms to the health service in England and Wales, in the form of the Patient Advocacy and Liaison Services (DoH 2000), while proposed changes to the mental health system also accord a key role to service users' advocates. In addition, Valuing People, central government's proposals on the future strategy for people with learning disabilities, promised the widespread development of advocacy services (DoH 2001). Advocacy, traditionally located on the margins of state activity in the UK, is experiencing something of an attempt to shift it into mainstream policy and service provision. This makes it a significant time to review the core values and practices that have distinguished advocacy from other forms of professional and voluntary intervention and to explore how these may be preserved and developed in the contemporary context.

What’s the Problem? Precarious Youth: Marginalisation, Criminalisation and Racialisation.

Since the nineteenth century invention of adolescence, young people have been consistently identified as social problems in western societies. Their contemporary status as a focus of fear and anxiety is, in that sense, nothing new. In this paper, I try to combine this sense of historical recurrence about the youth problem with some questions about what is different about the present – asking what is distinctive about the shape of the youth problem now? This is a difficult balance to strike, and what I have to say will probably lean more towards an emphasis on the historical conditions and routes of the youth problem. That balance reflects my own orientations and knowledge (I am not expert on the contemporary conditions of being young). But it also arises from my belief that much contemporary social science is profoundly forgetful. An enthusiasm for stressing the newness, or novelty, of the present connects many varieties of contemporary scholarship. One result is the construction of what Janet Fink and I have referred to as ‘sociological time’ in which

CD4 count slope and mortality in HIV-infected patients on antiretroviral therapy: multicohort analysis from South Africa

BACKGROUND In many resource-limited settings monitoring of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) is based on the current CD4 count, with limited access to HIV RNA tests or laboratory diagnostics. We examined whether the CD4 count slope over 6 months could provide additional prognostic information. METHODS We analyzed data from a large multicohort study in South Africa, where HIV RNA is routinely monitored. Adult HIV-positive patients initiating cART between 2003 and 2010 were included. Mortality was analyzed in Cox models; CD4 count slope by HIV RNA level was assessed using linear mixed models. RESULTS About 44,829 patients (median age: 35 years, 58% female, median CD4 count at cART initiation: 116 cells/mm) were followed up for a median of 1.9 years, with 3706 deaths. Mean CD4 count slopes per week ranged from 1.4 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.2 to 1.6] cells per cubic millimeter when HIV RNA was <400 copies per milliliter to -0.32 (95% CI: -0.47 to -0.18) cells per cubic millimeter with >100,000 copies per milliliter. The association of CD4 slope with mortality depended on current CD4 count: the adjusted hazard ratio (aHRs) comparing a >25% increase over 6 months with a >25% decrease was 0.68 (95% CI: 0.58 to 0.79) at <100 cells per cubic millimeter but 1.11 (95% CI: 0.78 to 1.58) at 201-350 cells per cubic millimeter. In contrast, the aHR for current CD4 count, comparing >350 with <100 cells per cubic millimeter, was 0.10 (95% CI: 0.05 to 0.20). CONCLUSIONS Absolute CD4 count remains a strong risk for mortality with a stable effect size over the first 4 years of cART. However, CD4 count slope and HIV RNA provide independently added to the model.

Analysis of non-porcine isolates of Actinobacillus suis

Twenty-four Actinobacillus suis isolates obtained from several species of non-porcine mammals were compared to the representative porcine strains, ATCC 15557 (serotype O1) and H89-1173 (serotype O2), by O serotyping, DNA fingerprinting, PCR amplification of apxICA, apxIICA and apxIIICA toxin genes and by rrs (16S rRNA) gene sequencing. Only two strains, both equine, reacted with O1 antiserum while two others, one canine and the other feline, reacted with O2 antiserum. One equine strain reacted weakly with both antisera. No amplification of apx genes was found with the non-porcine O1 or the "not O1/O2" strains but amplification of the apxICA and apxIICA genes was observed with the two O2 strains. In addition, these two O2 strains had both BamHI and BglII fingerprints that were very similar to the porcine O2 reference strain, H89-1173 and rrs gene sequences that were identical to the A. suis reference strain ATCC 15557. Taken together, these data suggest that although many non-porcine A. suis isolates are not A. suis (sensu stricto), some isolates are genotypically as well as phenotypically similar to A. suis.

Characterization of apxIVA, a new RTX determinant of Actinobacillus pleuropneumoniae

A fourth type of RTX determinant was identified in Actinobacillus pleuropneumoniae and was designated apxIVA. When expressed in Escherichia coli, recombinant ApxIVA showed a weak haemolytic activity and co-haemolytic synergy with the sphingomyelinase (beta-toxin) of Staphylococcus aureus. These activities required the presence of an additional gene, ORF1, that is located immediately upstream of apxIVA. The apxIVA gene product could not be detected in A. pleuropneumoniae cultures grown under various conditions in vitro; however, pigs experimentally infected with A. pleuropneumoniae serotypes 1, 5 and 7 started to produce antibodies that reacted with recombinant ApxIVA 14 d post-infection, indicating that apxIVA is expressed in vivo. In addition, sera from pigs naturally and experimentally infected with any of the serotypes all reacted with recombinant ApxIVA. The apxIVA gene from the serotype 1 A. pleuropneumoniae type strain Shope 4074T encodes a protein with a predicted molecular mass of 202 kDa which has typical features of RTX proteins including hydrophobic domains in the N-terminal half and 24 glycine-rich nonapeptides in the C-terminal half that bind Ca2+. The glycine-rich nonapeptides are arranged in a modular structure and there is some variability in the number of modules in the ApxIVA proteins of different serotypes of A. pleuropneumoniae. The deduced amino acid sequences of the ApxIVA proteins have significant similarity with the Neisseria meningitidis iron-regulated RTX proteins FrpA and FrpC, and to a much lesser extent with other RTX proteins. The apxIVA gene could be detected in all A. pleuropneumoniae serotypes and seems to be species-specific. Although the precise role of this new RTX determinant in pathogenesis of porcine pleuropneumonia needs to be determined, apxIVA is the first in vivo induced toxin gene that has been described in A. pleuropneumoniae.

Life expectancies of South African adults starting antiretroviral treatment: collaborative analysis of cohort studies

BACKGROUND Few estimates exist of the life expectancy of HIV-positive adults receiving antiretroviral treatment (ART) in low- and middle-income countries. We aimed to estimate the life expectancy of patients starting ART in South Africa and compare it with that of HIV-negative adults. METHODS AND FINDINGS Data were collected from six South African ART cohorts. Analysis was restricted to 37,740 HIV-positive adults starting ART for the first time. Estimates of mortality were obtained by linking patient records to the national population register. Relative survival models were used to estimate the excess mortality attributable to HIV by age, for different baseline CD4 categories and different durations. Non-HIV mortality was estimated using a South African demographic model. The average life expectancy of men starting ART varied between 27.6 y (95% CI: 25.2-30.2) at age 20 y and 10.1 y (95% CI: 9.3-10.8) at age 60 y, while estimates for women at the same ages were substantially higher, at 36.8 y (95% CI: 34.0-39.7) and 14.4 y (95% CI: 13.3-15.3), respectively. The life expectancy of a 20-y-old woman was 43.1 y (95% CI: 40.1-46.0) if her baseline CD4 count was ≥ 200 cells/µl, compared to 29.5 y (95% CI: 26.2-33.0) if her baseline CD4 count was <50 cells/µl. Life expectancies of patients with baseline CD4 counts ≥ 200 cells/µl were between 70% and 86% of those in HIV-negative adults of the same age and sex, and life expectancies were increased by 15%-20% in patients who had survived 2 y after starting ART. However, the analysis was limited by a lack of mortality data at longer durations. CONCLUSIONS South African HIV-positive adults can have a near-normal life expectancy, provided that they start ART before their CD4 count drops below 200 cells/µl. These findings demonstrate that the near-normal life expectancies of HIV-positive individuals receiving ART in high-income countries can apply to low- and middle-income countries as well. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

Prognosis of Children with HIV-1 Infection Starting Antiretroviral Therapy in Southern Africa: A Collaborative Analysis of Treatment Programs

BACKGROUND: Prognostic models for children starting antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Africa are lacking. We developed models to estimate the probability of death during the first year receiving ART in Southern Africa. METHODS: We analyzed data from children ≤10 years old who started ART in Malawi, South Africa, Zambia or Zimbabwe from 2004-2010. Children lost to follow-up or transferred were excluded. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality in the first year of ART. We used Weibull survival models to construct two prognostic models: one with CD4%, age, WHO clinical stage, weight-for-age z-score (WAZ) and anemia and one without CD4%, because it is not routinely measured in many programs. We used multiple imputation to account for missing data. RESULTS: Among 12655 children, 877 (6.9%) died in the first year of ART. 1780 children were lost to follow-up/transferred and excluded from main analyses; 10875 children were included. With the CD4% model probability of death at 1 year ranged from 1.8% (95% CI: 1.5-2.3) in children 5-10 years with CD4% ≥10%, WHO stage I/II, WAZ ≥-2 and without severe anemia to 46.3% (95% CI: 38.2-55.2) in children <1 year with CD4% <5%, stage III/IV, WAZ< -3 and severe anemia. The corresponding range for the model without CD4% was 2.2% (95% CI: 1.8-2.7) to 33.4% (95% CI: 28.2-39.3). Agreement between predicted and observed mortality was good (C-statistics=0.753 and 0.745 for models with and without CD4% respectively). CONCLUSION: These models may be useful to counsel children/caregivers, for program planning and to assess program outcomes after allowing for differences in patient disease severity characteristics.

Temporal trends in the characteristics of children at antiretroviral therapy initiation in southern Africa: the IeDEA-SA Collaboration

BACKGROUND Since 2005, increasing numbers of children have started antiretroviral therapy (ART) in sub-Saharan Africa and, in recent years, WHO and country treatment guidelines have recommended ART initiation for all infants and very young children, and at higher CD4 thresholds for older children. We examined temporal changes in patient and regimen characteristics at ART start using data from 12 cohorts in 4 countries participating in the IeDEA-SA collaboration. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS Data from 30,300 ART-naïve children aged <16 years at ART initiation who started therapy between 2005 and 2010 were analysed. We examined changes in median values for continuous variables using the Cuzick's test for trend over time. We also examined changes in the proportions of patients with particular disease severity characteristics (expressed as a binary variable e.g. WHO Stage III/IV vs I/II) using logistic regression. Between 2005 and 2010 the number of children starting ART each year increased and median age declined from 63 months (2006) to 56 months (2010). Both the proportion of children <1 year and ≥10 years of age increased from 12 to 19% and 18 to 22% respectively. Children had less severe disease at ART initiation in later years with significant declines in the percentage with severe immunosuppression (81 to 63%), WHO Stage III/IV disease (75 to 62%), severe anemia (12 to 7%) and weight-for-age z-score<-3 (31 to 28%). Similar results were seen when restricting to infants with significant declines in the proportion with severe immunodeficiency (98 to 82%) and Stage III/IV disease (81 to 63%). First-line regimen use followed country guidelines. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE Between 2005 and 2010 increasing numbers of children have initiated ART with a decline in disease severity at start of therapy. However, even in 2010, a substantial number of infants and children started ART with advanced disease. These results highlight the importance of efforts to improve access to HIV diagnostic testing and ART in children.

When to start antiretroviral therapy in children aged 2-5 years: a collaborative causal modelling analysis of cohort studies from southern Africa

BACKGROUND There is limited evidence on the optimal timing of antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation in children 2-5 y of age. We conducted a causal modelling analysis using the International Epidemiologic Databases to Evaluate AIDS-Southern Africa (IeDEA-SA) collaborative dataset to determine the difference in mortality when starting ART in children aged 2-5 y immediately (irrespective of CD4 criteria), as recommended in the World Health Organization (WHO) 2013 guidelines, compared to deferring to lower CD4 thresholds, for example, the WHO 2010 recommended threshold of CD4 count <750 cells/mm(3) or CD4 percentage (CD4%) <25%. METHODS AND FINDINGS ART-naïve children enrolling in HIV care at IeDEA-SA sites who were between 24 and 59 mo of age at first visit and with ≥1 visit prior to ART initiation and ≥1 follow-up visit were included. We estimated mortality for ART initiation at different CD4 thresholds for up to 3 y using g-computation, adjusting for measured time-dependent confounding of CD4 percent, CD4 count, and weight-for-age z-score. Confidence intervals were constructed using bootstrapping. The median (first; third quartile) age at first visit of 2,934 children (51% male) included in the analysis was 3.3 y (2.6; 4.1), with a median (first; third quartile) CD4 count of 592 cells/mm(3) (356; 895) and median (first; third quartile) CD4% of 16% (10%; 23%). The estimated cumulative mortality after 3 y for ART initiation at different CD4 thresholds ranged from 3.4% (95% CI: 2.1-6.5) (no ART) to 2.1% (95% CI: 1.3%-3.5%) (ART irrespective of CD4 value). Estimated mortality was overall higher when initiating ART at lower CD4 values or not at all. There was no mortality difference between starting ART immediately, irrespective of CD4 value, and ART initiation at the WHO 2010 recommended threshold of CD4 count <750 cells/mm(3) or CD4% <25%, with mortality estimates of 2.1% (95% CI: 1.3%-3.5%) and 2.2% (95% CI: 1.4%-3.5%) after 3 y, respectively. The analysis was limited by loss to follow-up and the unavailability of WHO staging data. CONCLUSIONS The results indicate no mortality difference for up to 3 y between ART initiation irrespective of CD4 value and ART initiation at a threshold of CD4 count <750 cells/mm(3) or CD4% <25%, but there are overall higher point estimates for mortality when ART is initiated at lower CD4 values. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

Geographical Dialectology

This chapter examines how linguists have investigated the very obvious fact that different places house different dialects. We will not look at the results of such work nor how they have been used to answer linguistic and sociolinguistic questions (see Britain 2009, in press). Here we simply examine the steps dialectologists take and have taken to conduct multi-locality research on language variation. In order to do so, five studies from different time periods are presented and critiqued, examining a number of key methodological elements in each: 1. The aim of geographical dialectology is to examine variation across space, in different places. How do dialectologists then decide which places in that space to analyse? Why choose one village and not its neighbour? Why avoid that city? This question goes to the very heart of the geographical motivation of the research. 2. What sorts of speakers will be sampled from these locations? 3. What type of data is to be collected from these speakers? 4. In what circumstances is that data to be recorded? Who will collect it, in what setting and how will the voices of the speakers be captured for later analysis? As we will see, dialectological methodologies always involve compromises, no approach is ever flawless. Ultimately, a good number of difficult practical decisions have to be taken – how long can this research take, and what are the financial restrictions on the project? As we will see geographical dialectology is probably the most expensive and the most time consuming of all forms of language variation research.