Investment decision-making under risk (reliability) and uncertainty for infrastructure asset management

Risks and uncertainties are inevitable in engineering projects and infrastructure investments. Decisions about investment in infrastructure such as for maintenance, rehabilitation and construction works can pose risks, and may generate significant impacts on social, cultural, environmental and other related issues. This report presents the results of a literature review of current practice in identifying, quantifying and managing risks and predicting impacts as part of the planning and assessment process for infrastructure investment proposals. In assessing proposals for investment in infrastructure, it is necessary to consider social, cultural and environmental risks and impacts to the overall community, as well as financial risks to the investor. The report defines and explains the concept of risk and uncertainty, and describes the three main methodology approaches to the analysis of risk and uncertainty in investment planning for infrastructure, viz examining a range of scenarios or options, sensitivity analysis, and a statistical probability approach, listed here in order of increasing merit and complexity. Forecasts of costs, benefits and community impacts of infrastructure are recognised as central aspects of developing and assessing investment proposals. Increasingly complex modelling techniques are being used for investment evaluation. The literature review identified forecasting errors as the major cause of risk. The report contains a summary of the broad nature of decision-making tools used by governments and other organisations in Australia, New Zealand, Europe and North America, and shows their overall approach to risk assessment in assessing public infrastructure proposals. While there are established techniques to quantify financial and economic risks, quantification is far less developed for political, social and environmental risks and impacts. The report contains a summary of the broad nature of decision-making tools used by governments and other organisations in Australia, New Zealand, Europe and North America, and shows their overall approach to risk assessment in assessing public infrastructure proposals. While there are established techniques to quantify financial and economic risks, quantification is far less developed for political, social and environmental risks and impacts. For risks that cannot be readily quantified, assessment techniques commonly include classification or rating systems for likelihood and consequence. The report outlines the system used by the Australian Defence Organisation and in the Australian Standard on risk management. After each risk is identified and quantified or rated, consideration can be given to reducing the risk, and managing any remaining risk as part of the scope of the project. The literature review identified use of risk mapping techniques by a North American chemical company and by the Australian Defence Organisation. This literature review has enabled a risk assessment strategy to be developed, and will underpin an examination of the feasibility of developing a risk assessment capability using a probability approach.

Review of international procurement procedures

Contractor selection is a crucial element in construction procurement (Drew & Skitmore 1993, p. 363). Contractors are selected through the tender process, which varies according to country, state and contracting organisation and is subject to individual differences. This paper reviews a range of international tender processes, highlighting the ethical features that govern these guidelines. The paper is part of a project to develop ethical guidelines for procurement for major contracting authorities. By reviewing tender guidelines we are able to gain an indication of the type of ethical standards reserved for procurement. The need for good business ethics in the tender process stems from the belief that ‘good ethical practice’ is critical in meeting organisational goals (Vee & Skitmore 2003, p. 125). Hence, an ethical tender process will select ethical contractors who are viewed as beneficial to the contracting authority.

E-business adoption in construction : international review on impediments

The adoption of e-business by the Australian construction industry lags other service and product industries. It is assumed that slow adoption rate does not reflect the maturity of the technology but is due to adoption impediments peculiar to the nature of construction. This chapter examines impediments to the uptake of e-business nationally and internationally. A systematic and extensive literature search of impediments (also referred to as obstacles, impediments or hindrances) to adoption has been undertaken and the findings discussed in this chapter. This review included more that 200 documents and these have been published in a searchable database as part of a larger research initiative funded by the Cooperative Research Centre for Construction Innovation. The influence of levels of e-business maturity seen in other sectors such as retail, tourism and manufacturing was also captured and a number of major impediments were identified some including: privacy, trust, uncertainty of financial returns, lack of reliable measurement, fraud, lack of support and system maintenance. A total of 23 impediments were assessed in terms of impact to organisational type and size across reviewed documents. With this information it was possible to develop a reference framework for measuring maturity levels and readiness to uptake e-business in construction. Results have also shown that impediments to e-business adoption work differently according to organisational type and culture. Areas of training and people development need to be addressed. This would include a more sensitive approach to the nature of construction organisations, especially to those small and medium enterprises. Raising levels of awareness and creating trust for on-line collaboration are other aspects that need attention, which current studies confirm as lacking. An empirical study within construction, to validate these findings, forms the subsequent phase of this research.

The comprehensive Australian Study of entrepreneurial emergence (CAUSEE) high potential nascent entrepreneurs : some preliminary findings

Principal Topic The Comprehensive Australian Study of Entrepreneurial Emergence (CAUSEE) represents the first Australian study to employ and extend the longitudinal and large scale systematic research developed for the Panel Study of Entrepreneurial Dynamics (PSED) in the US (Gartner, Shaver, Carter and Reynolds, 2004; Reynolds, 2007). This research approach addresses several shortcomings of other data sets including under coverage; selection bias; memory decay and hindsight bias, and lack of time separation between the assessment of causes and their assumed effects (Johnson et al 2006; Davidsson 2006). However, a remaining problem is that any a random sample of start-ups will be dominated by low potential, imitative ventures. In recognition of this issue CAUSEE supplemented PSED-type random samples with theoretically representative samples of the 'high potential' emerging ventures employing a unique methodology using novel multiple screening criteria. We define new ''high-potential'' ventures as new entrepreneurial innovative ventures with high aspirations and potential for growth. This distinguishes them from those ''lifestyle'' imitative businesses that start small and remain intentionally small (Timmons, 1986). CAUSEE is providing the opportunity to explore, for the first time, if process and outcomes of high potentials differ from those of traditional lifestyle firms. This will allows us to compare process and outcome attributes of the random sample with the high potential over sample of new firms and young firms. The attributes in which we will examine potential differences will include source of funding, and internationalisation. This is interesting both in terms of helping to explain why different outcomes occur but also in terms of assistance to future policymaking, given that high growth potential firms are increasingly becoming the focus of government intervention in economic development policies around the world. The first wave of data of a four year longitudinal study has been collected using these samples, allowing us to also provide some initial analysis on which to continue further research. The aim of this paper therefore is to present some selected preliminary results from the first wave of the data collection, with comparisons of high potential with lifestyle firms. We expect to see owing to greater resource requirements and higher risk profiles, more use of venture capital and angel investment, and more internationalisation activity to assist in recouping investment and to overcome Australia's smaller economic markets Methodology/Key Propositions In order to develop the samples of 'high potential' in the NF and YF categories a set of qualification criteria were developed. Specifically, to qualify, firms as nascent or young high potentials, we used multiple, partly compensating screening criteria related to the human capital and aspirations of the founders as well as the novelty of the venture idea, and venture high technology. A variety of techniques were also employed to develop a multi level dataset of sources to develop leads and firm details. A dataset was generated from a variety of websites including major stakeholders including the Federal and State Governments, Australian Chamber of Commerce, University Commercialisation Offices, Patent and Trademark Attorneys, Government Awards and Industry Awards in Entrepreneurship and Innovation, Industry lead associations, Venture Capital Association, Innovation directories including Australian Technology Showcase, Business and Entrepreneurs Magazines including BRW and Anthill. In total, over 480 industry, association, government and award sources were generated in this process. Of these, 74 discrete sources generated high potentials that fufilled the criteria. 1116 firms were contacted as high potential cases. 331 cases agreed to participate in the screener, with 279 firms (134 nascents, and 140 young firms) successfully passing the high potential criteria. 222 Firms (108 Nascents and 113 Young firms) completed the full interview. For the general sample CAUSEE conducts screening phone interviews with a very large number of adult members of households randomly selected through random digit dialing using screening questions which determine whether respondents qualify as 'nascent entrepreneurs'. CAUSEE additionally targets 'young firms' those that commenced trading from 2004 or later. This process yielded 977 Nascent Firms (3.4%) and 1,011 Young Firms (3.6%). These were directed to the full length interview (40-60 minutes) either directly following the screener or later by appointment. The full length interviews were completed by 594 NF and 514 YF cases. These are the cases we will use in the comparative analysis in this report. Results and Implications The results for this paper are based on Wave one of the survey which has been completed and the data obtained. It is expected that the findings will assist in beginning to develop an understanding of high potential nascent and young firms in Australia, how they differ from the larger lifestyle entrepreneur group that makes up the vast majority of the new firms created each year, and the elements that may contribute to turning high potential growth status into high growth realities. The results have implications for Government in the design of better conditions for the creation of new business, firms who assist high potentials in developing better advice programs in line with a better understanding of their needs and requirements, individuals who may be considering becoming entrepreneurs in high potential arenas and existing entrepreneurs make better decisions.

Traps for the unwary : reform stories of private sector managers entering public service

The purpose of this research is to capture and interpret the stories of “outsider” managers who make the transition to the public sector. These experiences are considered in the context of efforts to shift public management culture in a direction consistent with meeting contemporary demands placed on public sector organisations. It is often noted that an important strategy for changing culture is the infusion of outsiders. Outsiders are thought to bring new perspectives that, through a dialectical process (Van de Ven 1995), create the potential for change. While there have been cross-sector comparisons (Broussine 1990; Silfvast 1994; Redman 1997), little attention has been given to the experience of those who make the transition in the context of efforts to reform public sector management culture. Not only is the infusion of private sector managers into the public sector a potential culture change strategy, it is also a personal experience for those who make the transition. Boundary crossing is typically an anxiety provoking experience (Van Maanen & Schein 1979) and the quality of this experience influences decisions to commit, engage, disengage or exit. The quality of the experience is likely to be affected by how the public organisation responds to people making this transition, that is, their investment in people processing (Saks 2007). The cost of recruitment and selection processes at middle and senior management levels warrants a greater research focus on this transition. In this paper we argue that the experiences of those who make the transition from private to public sectors has much to tell us about the traps that transition managers experience in making this change, the implications for injecting outsider managers as a strategy for achieving public management culture change, and how reform-oriented public organisations can manage the transitions of outsider managers into the public sector in order that best value might be achieved for both the individual and organisational change goals.

Barriers to e-business adoption in construction: international literature review

The adoption of e-business by the Australian construction industry lags other service and product industries. It is assumed that slow adoption rate does not reflect the maturity of the technology but is due to adoption barriers peculiar to the nature of construction. This paper examines impediments to the uptake of e-business nationally and internationally. A systematic and extensive literature search of barriers (also referred to as obstacles, impediments or hindrances) to adoption has been undertaken and the findings discussed in this paper. This review included more that 200 documents and these have been published in a searchable database as part of a larger research initiative funded by the Cooperative Research Centre for Construction Innovation. The influence of levels of e-business maturity seen in other sectors such as retail, tourism and manufacturing was also captured and a number of major barriers were identified some including: privacy, trust, uncertainty of financial returns, lack of reliable measurement, fraud, lack of support and system maintenance. A total of 23 barriers were assessed in terms of impact to organisational type and size across reviewed documents. With this information it was possible to develop a reference framework for measuring maturity levels and readiness to uptake e-business in construction. Results have also shown that barriers to e-business adoption work differently according to organisational type and culture. Areas of training and people development need to be addressed. This would include a more sensitive approach to the nature of construction organisations, especially to those small and medium enterprises. Raising levels of awareness and creating trust for on-line collaboration are other aspects that need attention, which current studies confirm as lacking. An empirical study within construction, to validate these findings, forms the subsequent phase of this research.

Firm social, cultural and intellectual capital : strategic indicators of international client satisfaction

Despite the increasing significance of the construction industry as an emerging sector of the Australian economy, there is inadequate research performed on construction design firms in terms of theoretical and empirical foundations. Although past research has identified the barriers and success factors for firm market entry, evidence suggests that to date no research has explicitly explored the sustainability of construction design firms in international markets. SMEs and their approach to firm internationalisation differ significantly from large manufacturing firms and a vast majority of construction design firms operate as SMEs. This paper develops a sustainable business model for construction design SMEs, which rely upon the development of clear Client Following (CF) versus Market Seeking (MS) strategies to support internal firm strategic and operational management. The understanding of these strategies is vital as the application of either will shape the design management approach of firms, which would in turn impact on the sustainability of these firms in foreign markets. Long-term sustainability of firms in international markets relies heavily upon client satisfaction. Client and project team participants’ communication during various design processes has often been problematic and the added difficulty of communicating across international boundaries further compounds the problem of capturing and maintaining client’s requirements. Therefore this paper develops a model for economic sustainability of Australian construction design firms working in international markets by exploring factors that affect client satisfaction across international boundaries, through the development of business performance indicators. These include not only the critical financial capital but also other ‘softer’ indicators, namely: social, cultural and intellectual capital. These act as a firm’s measure of success and the acquisition of this type of capital will provide significant advantages to firms’ success, hence sustainability in international markets.

Risk assessment in life-cycle costing for road asset management

Queensland Department of Main Roads, Australia, spends approximately A$ 1 billion annually for road infrastructure asset management. To effectively manage road infrastructure, firstly road agencies not only need to optimise the expenditure for data collection, but at the same time, not jeopardise the reliability in using the optimised data to predict maintenance and rehabilitation costs. Secondly, road agencies need to accurately predict the deterioration rates of infrastructures to reflect local conditions so that the budget estimates could be accurately estimated. And finally, the prediction of budgets for maintenance and rehabilitation must provide a certain degree of reliability. This paper presents the results of case studies in using the probability-based method for an integrated approach (i.e. assessing optimal costs of pavement strength data collection; calibrating deterioration prediction models that suit local condition and assessing risk-adjusted budget estimates for road maintenance and rehabilitation for assessing life-cycle budget estimates). The probability concept is opening the path to having the means to predict life-cycle maintenance and rehabilitation budget estimates that have a known probability of success (e.g. produce budget estimates for a project life-cycle cost with 5% probability of exceeding). The paper also presents a conceptual decision-making framework in the form of risk mapping in which the life-cycle budget/cost investment could be considered in conjunction with social, environmental and political issues.

Framework for investment decision-making under risk and uncertainty for infrastructure asset management

A study has been conducted to investigate current practices on decision-making under risk and uncertainty for infrastructure project investments. It was found that many European countries such as the UK, France, Germany including Australia use scenarios for the investigation of the effects of risk and uncertainty of project investments. Different alternative scenarios are mostly considered during the engineering economic cost-benefit analysis stage. For instance, the World Bank requires an analysis of risks in all project appraisals. Risk in economic evaluation needs to be addressed by calculating sensitivity of the rate of return for a number of events. Risks and uncertainties of project developments arise from various sources of errors including data, model and forecasting errors. It was found that the most influential factors affecting risk and uncertainty resulted from forecasting errors. Data errors and model errors have trivial effects. It was argued by many analysts that scenarios do not forecast what will happen but scenarios indicate only what can happen from given alternatives. It was suggested that the probability distributions of end-products of the project appraisal, such as cost-benefit ratios that take forecasting errors into account, are feasible decision tools for economic evaluation. Political, social, environmental as well as economic and other related risk issues have been addressed and included in decision-making frameworks, such as in a multi-criteria decisionmaking framework. But no suggestion has been made on how to incorporate risk into the investment decision-making process.

Comparative study of guidelines and practices for building infrastructure asset management

This paper presents a comparative study of primarily Australian (and limited international) practices and guidelines on Buildings Asset Management (BAM). The objective of this study was to identify potential gaps in current practices and potential areas of research for further improvement. The paper starts with an overview of BAM. Later sections cover current BAM practices and guidelines across different states of Australia; give a limited overview of international practices and concludes with the authors’ observations.

Road Asset Management Investment

Australias civil infrastructure assets of roads, bridges, railways, buildings and other structures are worth billions of dollars. To effectively manage road infrastructures, road agencies firstly need to optimise the expenditure for data collection whilst not jeopardising the reliability in using the optimised data to predict maintenance and rehabilitation costs. Secondly, road agencies need to accurately predict the deterioration rates of infrastructures to reflect local conditions so that the budget estimates can be accurately calculated. Finally, the prediction of budgets for maintenance and rehabilitation must be reasonably reliable.

The appeal of the International Baccalaureate in Australia’s educational market: A curriculum of choice for mobile futures

In Australia there is growing interest in a national curriculum to replace the variety of matriculation credentials managed by State Education departments, ostensibly to address increasing population mobility. Meanwhile, the International Baccalaureate (IB) is attracting increasing interest and enrolments in State and private schools in Australia, and has been considered as one possible model for a proposed Australian Certificate of Education. This paper will review the construction of this curriculum in Australian public discourse as an alternative frame for producing citizens, and ask why this design appeals now, to whom, and how the phenomenon of its growing appeal might inform national curricular debates. The IB’s emergence is understood with reference to the larger context of neo-liberal marketization policies, neo-conservative claims on the curriculum and middle class strategy. The paper draws on public domain documents from the IB Organisation and newspaper reportage to demonstrate how the IB is constructed for public consumption in Australia.

Planning mobile futures : the border artistry of International Baccalaureate Diploma choosers

This paper reports on a study of students choosing the International Baccalaureate Diploma (IBD) over state-based curricula in Australian schools. The IBD was initially designed as a matriculation certificate to facilitate international mobility. While first envisaged as a lifestyle agenda for cultural elites, such mobility is now widespread with more people living ‘beyond the nation’ through choice or circumstance. Beck (2007) and others highlight how the capacity to cross national borders offers a competitive edge with which to strategically pursue economic and cultural capital. Beck’s ‘border artistes’ are those who use national borders to their individual advantage through reflexive strategy. The study explored the rationales and strategy behind the choice of the IBD curriculum expressed by students in a focus group interview and an online survey. This paper reports on their imagined transnational routes and mobile orientations, and how a localised curriculum limits their imagined mobile futures.

Comparing international television news : the case of violence presentation in Germany, Great Britain and Russia -- [in German : Gewalt in internationalen Fernsehnachrichten - eine komparative Analyse medialer Gewaltpräsentation in Deutschland, Großbritannien und Russland]

This is an important book that ought to launch a debate about how we research our understanding of the world, it is an innovative intervention in a vital public issue, and it is an elegant and scholarly hard look at what is actually happening. Jean Seaton, Prof of Media History, U of Westminster, UK & Official Historian of the BBC -- Summary: This book investigates the question of how comparative studies of international TV news (here: on violence presentation) can best be conceptualized in a way that allows for crossnational, comparative conclusions on an empirically validated basis. This book shows that such a conceptualization is necessary in order to overcome existing restrictions in the comparability of international analysis on violence presentation. Investigated examples include the most watched news bulletins in Great Britain (10o'clock news on the BBC), Germany (Tagesschau on ARD) and Russia (Vremja on Channel 1). This book highlights a substantial cross-national violence news flow as well as a cross-national visual violence flow (key visuals) as distinct transnational components. In addition, event-related textual analysis reveals how the historical rootedness of nations and its symbols of power are still manifested in televisual mediations of violence. In conclusion, this study lobbies for a conscientious use of comparative data/analysis both in journalism research and practice in order to understand what it may convey in the different arenas of today’s newsmaking.