Obesity and body fat classification in the metabolic syndrome: impact on cardiometabolic risk metabotype

Obesity is a key factor in the development of the metabolic syndrome (MetS), which is associated with increased cardiometabolic risk. We investigated whether obesity classification by body mass index (BMI) and body fat percentage (BF%) influences cardiometabolic profile and dietary responsiveness in 486 MetS subjects (LIPGENE dietary intervention study). Anthropometric measures, markers of inflammation and glucose metabolism, lipid profiles, adhesion molecules and haemostatic factors were determined at baseline and after 12 weeks of 4 dietary interventions (high saturated fat (SFA), high monounsaturated fat (MUFA) and 2 low fat high complex carbohydrate (LFHCC) diets, 1 supplemented with long chain n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (LC n-3 PUFAs)). 39% and 87% of subjects classified as normal and overweight by BMI were obese according to their BF%. Individuals classified as obese by BMI (± 30 kg/m2) and BF% (± 25% (men) and ± 35% (women)) (OO, n = 284) had larger waist and hip measurements, higher BMI and were heavier (P < 0.001) than those classified as non-obese by BMI but obese by BF% (NOO, n = 92). OO individuals displayed a more pro-inflammatory (higher C reactive protein (CRP) and leptin), pro-thrombotic (higher plasminogen activator inhibitor-1 (PAI-1)), pro-atherogenic (higher leptin/adiponectin ratio) and more insulin resistant (higher HOMA-IR) metabolic profile relative to the NOO group (P < 0.001). Interestingly, tumour necrosis factor alpha (TNF-α) concentrations were lower post-intervention in NOO individuals compared to OO subjects (P < 0.001). In conclusion, assessing BF% and BMI as part of a metabotype may help identify individuals at greater cardiometabolic risk than BMI alone.

Using seasonal hindcasts to understand the origin of the equatorial cold tongue bias in CGCMs and its impact on ENSO

The cold equatorial SST bias in the tropical Pacific that is persistent in many coupled OAGCMs severely impacts the fidelity of the simulated climate and variability in this key region, such as the ENSO phenomenon. The classical bias analysis in these models usually concentrates on multi-decadal to centennial time series needed to obtain statistically robust features. Yet, this strategy cannot fully explain how the models errors were generated in the first place. Here, we use seasonal re-forecasts (hindcasts) to track back the origin of this cold bias. As such hindcasts are initialized close to observations, the transient drift leading to the cold bias can be analyzed to distinguish pre-existing errors from errors responding to initial ones. A time sequence of processes involved in the advent of the final mean state errors can then be proposed. We apply this strategy to the ENSEMBLES-FP6 project multi-model hindcasts of the last decades. Four of the five AOGCMs develop a persistent equatorial cold tongue bias within a few months. The associated systematic errors are first assessed separately for the warm and cold ENSO phases. We find that the models are able to reproduce either El Niño or La Niña close to observations, but not both. ENSO composites then show that the spurious equatorial cooling is maximum for El Niño years for the February and August start dates. For these events and at this time of the year, zonal wind errors in the equatorial Pacific are present from the beginning of the simulation and are hypothesized to be at the origin of the equatorial cold bias, generating too strong upwelling conditions. The systematic underestimation of the mixed layer depth in several models can also amplify the growth of the SST bias. The seminal role of these zonal wind errors is further demonstrated by carrying out ocean-only experiments forced by the AOCGCMs daily 10-meter wind. In a case study, we show that for several models, this forcing is sufficient to reproduce the main SST error patterns seen after 1 month in the AOCGCM hindcasts.

Modelling climate impact on floods with ensemble climate projections

The evidence provided by modelled assessments of future climate impact on flooding is fundamental to water resources and flood risk decision making. Impact models usually rely on climate projections from global and regional climate models (GCM/RCMs). However, challenges in representing precipitation events at catchment-scale resolution mean that decisions must be made on how to appropriately pre-process the meteorological variables from GCM/RCMs. Here the impacts on projected high flows of differing ensemble approaches and application of Model Output Statistics to RCM precipitation are evaluated while assessing climate change impact on flood hazard in the Upper Severn catchment in the UK. Various ensemble projections are used together with the HBV hydrological model with direct forcing and also compared to a response surface technique. We consider an ensemble of single-model RCM projections from the current UK Climate Projections (UKCP09); multi-model ensemble RCM projections from the European Union's FP6 ‘ENSEMBLES’ project; and a joint probability distribution of precipitation and temperature from a GCM-based perturbed physics ensemble. The ensemble distribution of results show that flood hazard in the Upper Severn is likely to increase compared to present conditions, but the study highlights the differences between the results from different ensemble methods and the strong assumptions made in using Model Output Statistics to produce the estimates of future river discharge. The results underline the challenges in using the current generation of RCMs for local climate impact studies on flooding. Copyright © 2012 Royal Meteorological Society

Urban Growth Boundaries and their impact on land prices

Investigation of the effects of Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB) on land prices are restricted by a lack of good land market data. However, undeveloped land transactions at the urban fringe of the Melbourne metropolitan area in Australia are recorded in a data set that enables exploration of the impact of its UGB. Estimation can take account of endogeneity issues, while controlling for policy anticipation effects and other potential influences on land prices. OLS and instrumental variable estimates indicate that land prices rose substantially inside the UGB after its enactment in 2003 but did not rise much outside of it.

Dietary fat manipulation has a greater impact on postprandial lipid metabolism than the apolipoprotein E (epsilon) genotype: insights from the SATgenε study

Scope: Our aim was to determine the effects of chronic dietary fat manipulation on postprandial lipaemia according to apolipoprotein (APO)E genotype. Methods and results:Men (mean age 53 (SD 9) years), prospectively recruited for the APOE genotype (n = 12 E3/E3, n = 11 E3/E4), were assigned to a low fat (LF), high fat, high-saturated fat (HSF), and HSF diet with 3.45 g/day docosahexaenoic acid (HSF-DHA), each for an 8-week period in the same order. At the end of each dietary period, a postprandial assessment was performed using a test meal with a macronutrient profile representative of that dietary intervention. A variable postprandial plasma triacylglycerol (TAG) response according to APOE genotype was evident, with a greater sensitivity to the TAG-lowering effects of DHA in APOE4 carriers (p ≤ 0.005). There was a lack of an independent genotype effect on any of the lipid measures. In the groups combined, dietary fat manipulation had a significant impact on lipids in plasma and Svedberg flotation rate (Sf) 60–400 TAG-rich lipoprotein fraction, with lower responses following the HSF-DHA than HSF intervention (p < 0.05). Conclusion: Although a modest impact of APOE genotype was observed on the plasma TAG profile, dietary fat manipulation emerged as a greater modulator of the postprandial lipid response in normolipidaemic men.

Large-scale atmospheric dynamics of the wet winter 2009–2010 and its impact on hydrology in Portugal

The anomalously wet winter of 2010 had a very important impact on the Portuguese hydrological system. Owing to the detrimental effects of reduced precipitation in Portugal on the environmental and socio-economic systems, the 2010 winter was predominantly beneficial by reversing the accumulated precipitation deficits during the previous hydrological years. The recorded anomalously high precipitation amounts have contributed to an overall increase in river runoffs and dam recharges in the 4 major river basins. In synoptic terms, the winter 2010 was characterised by an anomalously strong westerly flow component over the North Atlantic that triggered high precipitation amounts. A dynamically coherent enhancement in the frequencies of mid-latitude cyclones close to Portugal, also accompanied by significant increases in the occurrence of cyclonic, south and south-westerly circulation weather types, are noteworthy. Furthermore, the prevalence of the strong negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) also emphasises the main dynamical features of the 2010 winter. A comparison of the hydrological and atmospheric conditions between the 2010 winter and the previous 2 anomalously wet winters (1996 and 2001) was also carried out to isolate not only their similarities, but also their contrasting conditions, highlighting the limitations of estimating winter precipitation amounts in Portugal using solely the NAO phase as a predictor.

Improved evaporative flux partitioning and carbon flux in the land surface model JULES: impact on the simulation of land surface processes in temperate Europe

The primary role of land surface models embedded in climate models is to partition surface available energy into upwards, radiative, sensible and latent heat fluxes. Partitioning of evapotranspiration, ET, is of fundamental importance: as a major component of the total surface latent heat flux, ET affects the simulated surface water balance, and related energy balance, and consequently the feedbacks with the atmosphere. In this context it is also crucial to credibly represent the CO2 exchange between ecosystems and their environment. In this study, JULES, the land surface model used in UK weather and climate models, has been evaluated for temperate Europe. Compared to eddy covariance flux measurements, the CO2 uptake by the ecosystem is underestimated and the ET overestimated. In addition, the contribution to ET from soil and intercepted water evaporation far outweighs the contribution of plant transpiration. To alleviate these biases, adaptations have been implemented in JULES, based on key literature references. These adaptations have improved the simulation of the spatio-temporal variability of the fluxes and the accuracy of the simulated GPP and ET, including its partitioning. This resulted in a shift of the seasonal soil moisture cycle. These adaptations are expected to increase the fidelity of climate simulations over Europe. Finally, the extreme summer of 2003 was used as evaluation benchmark for the use of the model in climate change studies. The improved model captures the impact of the 2003 drought on the carbon assimilation and the water use efficiency of the plants. It, however, underestimates the 2003 GPP anomalies. The simulations showed that a reduction of evaporation from the interception and soil reservoirs, albeit not of transpiration, largely explained the good correlation between the carbon and the water fluxes anomalies that was observed during 2003. This demonstrates the importance of being able to discriminate the response of individual component of the ET flux to environmental forcing.

ENSO impact on Kelvin waves and associated tropical convection

The impact of El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on atmospheric Kelvin waves and associated tropical convection is investigated using the ECMWF Re-Analysis, NOAA outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), and the analysis technique introduced in a previous study. It is found that the phase of ENSO has a substantial impact on Kelvin waves and associated convection over the equatorial central-eastern Pacific. El Nino (La Nina) events enhance (suppress) variability of the upper-tropospheric Kelvin wave and the associated convection there, both in extended boreal winter and summer. The mechanism of the impact is through changes in the ENSO-related thermal conditions and the ambient flow. In El Nino years, because of SST increase in the equatorial central-eastern Pacific, variability of eastward-moving convection, which is mainly associated with Kelvin waves, intensifies in the region. In addition, owing to the weakening of the equatorial eastern Pacific westerly duct in the upper troposphere in El Nino years, Kelvin waves amplify there. In La Nina years, the opposite occurs. However, the stronger westerly duct in La Nina winters allows more NH extratropical Rossby wave activity to propagate equatorward and force Kelvin waves around 200 hPa, partially offsetting the in situ weakening effect of the stronger westerlies on the waves. In general, in El Nino years Kelvin waves are more convectively and vertically coupled and propagate more upward into the lower stratosphere over the central-eastern Pacific. The ENSO impact in other regions is not clear, although in winter over the eastern Indian and western Pacific Oceans Kelvin waves and their associated convection are slightly weaker in El Nino than in La Nina years.

Mixed use urban regeneration at Brindleyplace, Birmingham and Gunwharf Quays, Portsmouth: an assessment of the impact on local and national economies

This independent research was commissioned by the British Property Federation. The report examines the local and national economic impact of two major, mixed use schemes in terms of tax revenue, household income, business rates and council tax and jobs creation. A regeneration balance sheet for each scheme is presented in the context of government policy and other related research. The report provides a comprehensive review of government policy and the role of retail and other land uses in regeneration. Highlighting the importance of national and local multiplier effects with detailed statistics drawn from a variety of sources, this fully illustrated colour research report builds up a detailed picture of economic impact of the mixed use regeneration schemes in the local economies of Birmingham and Portsmouth. The report will be of interest to property people, planners and all involved in regeneration and local economies.

Impairments in glucose tolerance can have a negative impact on cognitive function: a systematic research review

There is an increasing body of research investigating whether abnormal glucose tolerance is associated with cognitive impairments, the evidence from which is equivocal. A systematic search of the literature identified twenty-three studies which assessed either clinically defined impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) or variance in glucose tolerance within the clinically defined normal range (NGT). The findings suggest that poor glucose tolerance is associated with cognitive impairments, with decrements in verbal memory being most prevalent. However, the evidence for decrements in other domains was weak. The NGT studies report a stronger glucose tolerance-cognition association than the IGT studies, which is likely to be due to the greater number of glucose tolerance parameters and the more sensitive cognitive tests in the NGT studies compared to the IGT studies. It is also speculated that the negative cognitive impact of abnormalities in glucose tolerance increases with age, and that glucose consumption is most beneficial to individuals with poor glucose tolerance compared to individuals with normal glucose tolerance. The role of potential mechanisms are discussed.

Resistance to the anticoagulant rodenticides – the deployment of the new molecular methodology to identify mutations of the VKORC1 ‘resistance gene’, and understanding their potential impact on treatment outcome

Anticoagulants rodenticides have already known for over half a century, as effective and safe method of rodent control. However, discovered in 1958 anticoagulant resistance has given us a very important problem for their future long-term use. Laboratory tests provide the main method for identification the different types of anticoagulant resistances, quantify the magnitude of their effect and help us to choose the best pest control strategy. The main important tests are lethal feeding period (LFP) and blood clotting response (BCR) tests. These tests can now be used to quantify the likely effect of the resistance on treatment outcome by providing an estimate of the ‘resistance factor’. In 2004 the gene responsible for anticoagulant resistance (VKORC1) was identified and sequenced. As a result, a new molecular resistance testing methodology has been developed, and a number of resistance mutations, particularly in Norway rats and house mice. Three mutations of the VKORC1 gene in Norway rats have been identified to date that confer a degree of resistance to bromadiolone and difenacoum, sufficient to affect treatment outcome in the field.

Apolipoprotein e genotype has a modest impact on the postprandial plasma response to meals of varying fat composition in healthy men in a randomized controlled trial

BACKGROUND:Apolioprotein E (APOE) genotype is reported to influence a person's fasting lipid profile and potentially the response to dietary fat manipulation. The impact of APOE genotype on the responsiveness to meals of varying fat composition is unknown. OBJECTIVE:We examined the effect of meals containing 50 g of fat rich in saturated fatty acids (SFAs), unsaturated fatty acids (UNSATs), or SFAs with fish oil (SFA-FO) on postprandial lipemia. METHOD:A randomized, controlled, test meal study was performed in men recruited according to the APOE genotype (n = 10 APOE3/3, n = 11 APOE3/E4). RESULTS:For the serum apoE response (meal × genotype interaction P = 0.038), concentrations were on average 8% lower after the UNSAT than the SFA-FO meal in APOE4 carriers (P = 0.015) only. In the genotype groups combined, there was a delay in the time to reach maximum triacylglycerol (TG) concentration (mean ± SEM: 313 ± 25 vs. 266 ± 27 min) and higher maximum nonesterified fatty acid (0.73 ± 0.05 vs. 0.60 ± 0.03 mmol/L) and glucose (7.92 ± 0.22 vs. 7.25 ± 0.22 mmol/L) concentrations after the SFA than the UNSAT meal, respectively (P ≤ 0.05). In the Svedberg flotation rate 60-400 TG-rich lipoprotein fraction, meal × genotype interactions were observed for incremental area under the curve (IAUC) for the TG (P = 0.038) and apoE (P = 0.016) responses with a 58% lower apoE IAUC after the UNSAT than the SFA meal (P = 0.017) in the E4 carriers. CONCLUSIONS:Our data indicate that APOE genotype had a modest impact on the postprandial response to meals of varying fat composition in normolipidemic men. The physiologic importance of greater apoE concentrations after the SFA-rich meals in APOE4 carriers may reflect an impact on TG-rich lipoprotein clearance from the circulation. This trial was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT01522482.

Future cities: urbanisation and the impact on the construction & property sector

The Westminster Sustainable Business Forum (WSBF) has compiled a collection of expert essays on the topic of ‘sustainable construction’ contributed to by industry, policy-makers, and specialists from academia.