935 resultados para INTERVAL ESTIMATION
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The amino acid composition of the protein from three strains of rat (Wistar, Zucker lean and Zucker obese), subjected to reference and high-fat diets has been used to determine the mean empirical formula, molecular weight and N content of whole-rat protein. The combined whole protein of the rat was uniform for the six experimental groups, containing an estimate of 17.3% N and a mean aminoacyl residue molecular weight of 103.7. This suggests that the appropriate protein factor for the calculation of rat protein from its N content should be 5.77 instead of the classical 6.25. In addition, an estimate of the size of the non-protein N mass in the whole rat gave a figure in the range of 5.5 % of all N. The combination of the two calculations gives a protein factor of 5.5 for the conversion of total N into rat protein.
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Recommendations for statin use for primary prevention of coronary heart disease (CHD) are based on estimation of the 10-year CHD risk. It is unclear which risk algorithm and guidelines should be used in European populations. Using data from a population-based study in Switzerland, we first assessed 10-year CHD risk and eligibility for statins in 5,683 women and men 35 to 75 years of age without cardiovascular disease by comparing recommendations by the European Society of Cardiology without and with extrapolation of risk to age 60 years, the International Atherosclerosis Society, and the US Adult Treatment Panel III. The proportions of participants classified as high-risk for CHD were 12.5% (15.4% with extrapolation), 3.0%, and 5.8%, respectively. Proportions of participants eligible for statins were 9.2% (11.6% with extrapolation), 13.7%, and 16.7%, respectively. Assuming full compliance to each guideline, expected relative decreases in CHD deaths in Switzerland over a 10-year period would be 16.4% (17.5% with extrapolation), 18.7%, and 19.3%, respectively; the corresponding numbers needed to treat to prevent 1 CHD death would be 285 (340 with extrapolation), 380, and 440, respectively. In conclusion, the proportion of subjects classified as high risk for CHD varied over a fivefold range across recommendations. Following the International Atherosclerosis Society and the Adult Treatment Panel III recommendations might prevent more CHD deaths at the cost of higher numbers needed to treat compared with European Society of Cardiology guidelines.
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The temporal dynamics of species diversity are shaped by variations in the rates of speciation and extinction, and there is a long history of inferring these rates using first and last appearances of taxa in the fossil record. Understanding diversity dynamics critically depends on unbiased estimates of the unobserved times of speciation and extinction for all lineages, but the inference of these parameters is challenging due to the complex nature of the available data. Here, we present a new probabilistic framework to jointly estimate species-specific times of speciation and extinction and the rates of the underlying birth-death process based on the fossil record. The rates are allowed to vary through time independently of each other, and the probability of preservation and sampling is explicitly incorporated in the model to estimate the true lifespan of each lineage. We implement a Bayesian algorithm to assess the presence of rate shifts by exploring alternative diversification models. Tests on a range of simulated data sets reveal the accuracy and robustness of our approach against violations of the underlying assumptions and various degrees of data incompleteness. Finally, we demonstrate the application of our method with the diversification of the mammal family Rhinocerotidae and reveal a complex history of repeated and independent temporal shifts of both speciation and extinction rates, leading to the expansion and subsequent decline of the group. The estimated parameters of the birth-death process implemented here are directly comparable with those obtained from dated molecular phylogenies. Thus, our model represents a step towards integrating phylogenetic and fossil information to infer macroevolutionary processes.
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Selostus: Maassa olevan nitraattitypen arviointi simulointimallin avulla
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A method is proposed for the estimation of absolute binding free energy of interaction between proteins and ligands. Conformational sampling of the protein-ligand complex is performed by molecular dynamics (MD) in vacuo and the solvent effect is calculated a posteriori by solving the Poisson or the Poisson-Boltzmann equation for selected frames of the trajectory. The binding free energy is written as a linear combination of the buried surface upon complexation, SASbur, the electrostatic interaction energy between the ligand and the protein, Eelec, and the difference of the solvation free energies of the complex and the isolated ligand and protein, deltaGsolv. The method uses the buried surface upon complexation to account for the non-polar contribution to the binding free energy because it is less sensitive to the details of the structure than the van der Waals interaction energy. The parameters of the method are developed for a training set of 16 HIV-1 protease-inhibitor complexes of known 3D structure. A correlation coefficient of 0.91 was obtained with an unsigned mean error of 0.8 kcal/mol. When applied to a set of 25 HIV-1 protease-inhibitor complexes of unknown 3D structures, the method provides a satisfactory correlation between the calculated binding free energy and the experimental pIC5o without reparametrization.
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A major issue in the application of waveform inversion methods to crosshole ground-penetrating radar (GPR) data is the accurate estimation of the source wavelet. Here, we explore the viability and robustness of incorporating this step into a recently published time-domain inversion procedure through an iterative deconvolution approach. Our results indicate that, at least in non-dispersive electrical environments, such an approach provides remarkably accurate and robust estimates of the source wavelet even in the presence of strong heterogeneity of both the dielectric permittivity and electrical conductivity. Our results also indicate that the proposed source wavelet estimation approach is relatively insensitive to ambient noise and to the phase characteristics of the starting wavelet. Finally, there appears to be little to no trade-off between the wavelet estimation and the tomographic imaging procedures.
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The physical disector is a method of choice for estimating unbiased neuron numbers; nevertheless, calibration is needed to evaluate each counting method. The validity of this method can be assessed by comparing the estimated cell number with the true number determined by a direct counting method in serial sections. We reconstructed a 1/5 of rat lumbar dorsal root ganglia taken from two experimental conditions. From each ganglion, images of 200 adjacent semi-thin sections were used to reconstruct a volumetric dataset (stack of voxels). On these stacks the number of sensory neurons was estimated and counted respectively by physical disector and direct counting methods. Also, using the coordinates of nuclei from the direct counting, we simulate, by a Matlab program, disector pairs separated by increasing distances in a ganglion model. The comparison between the results of these approaches clearly demonstrates that the physical disector method provides a valid and reliable estimate of the number of sensory neurons only when the distance between the consecutive disector pairs is 60 microm or smaller. In these conditions the size of error between the results of physical disector and direct counting does not exceed 6%. In contrast when the distance between two pairs is larger than 60 microm (70-200 microm) the size of error increases rapidly to 27%. We conclude that the physical dissector method provides a reliable estimate of the number of rat sensory neurons only when the separating distance between the consecutive dissector pairs is no larger than 60 microm.
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Les précipitations journalières extrêmes centennales ont été estimées à partir d'analyses de Gumbel et de sept formule empiriques effectuées sur des séries de mesures pluviométriques à 151 endroits de la Suisse pour deux périodes de 50 ans. Ces estimations ont été comparées avec les valeurs journalières maximales mesurées durant les 100 dernières années (1911-2010) afin de tester l'efficacité de ces sept formules. Cette comparaison révèle que la formule de Weibull serait la meilleure pour estimer les précipitations journalières centennales à partir de la série de mesures pluviométriques 1961-2010, mais la moins bonne pour la série de mesures 1911-1960. La formule de Hazen serait la plus efficace pour cette dernière période. Ces différences de performances entre les formules empiriques pour les deux périodes étudiées résultent de l'augmentation des précipitations journalières maximales mesurées de 1911 à 2010 pour 90% des stations en Suisse. Mais les différences entre les pluies extrêmes estimées à partir des sept formules empiriques ne dépassent pas 6% en moyenne.
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AbstractAs demonstrated during several recent geological conferences, there is still a large debate concerning the origins of the Mesozoic oceanic remnants on the Caribbean Plate. The geodynamic models describing the Mesozoic history of the Caribbean realm can be divided into two main categories based on the origin of the Caribbean Plate: 1) An in situ origin between the Americas; 2) A Pacific origin and an eastward transport relative to the Americas. The study of the ribbon-bedded radiolarite is a key in determining the origins of associated Mesozoic oceanic terranes and may help to achieve a general agreement regarding the basic principles on the evolution of the Caribbean Plate. The Early Jurassic to early Late Cretaceous Bermeja Complex of Puerto Rico, witch contains serpentinized peridotite, altered basalt, amphibolite, and chert (Mariquita Chert Formation), and the contemporaneous Santa Rosa Accretionary Complex, which crops out in several half-windows along the south shores of the Santa Elena Peninsula in northwestern Costa Rica, are two of these little-known and crucial ophiolitic mélanges. The Manzanillo and Matambú fore-arc Terranes of the Nicoya Peninsula in the northwestern Costa Rica, which contain Late Cretaceous to Early Paleogene radiolarian-bearing siliceous mudstones and cherts associated with arc-derived mafic to intermediate volcaniclastics, bring important information on the history of the western active margin of the Caribbean Plate. A systematic radiolarian study of these three regions is presented herein in three different articles.The radiolarian biochronology of the Mariquita Chert Formation of the Bermeja Complex presented in this work indicate an early Middle Jurassic to early Late Cretaceous (late Bajocian-early Callovian to middle Albian-middle Cenomanian) age for the Mariquita Chert Formation. The illustrated assemblages contain 150 species, of which 3 are new (Pantanellium karinae, Loopus bermejaense, and L. boricus), and belonging to 59 genera. A review of the previous radiolarian published works on this formation and the results of this study suggest that the Bermeja Complex ranges in age from Middle Jurassic to early Late Cretaceous (late Aalenian to middle Cenomanian) and also reveal a possible feature of the complex, which is the youngling of radiolarian cherts from north to south, evoking a polarity of accretion. On the basis of a currently exhaustive inventory of the ribbonbedded radiolaritic facies on the Caribbean Plate, a re-examination of the distribution of Middle Jurassic sediments associated with oceanic crust from the Caribbean realm, and a paleoceanographical argumentation on the water currents, we come to the conclusion that the radiolarite and associated Mesozoic oceanic terranes of the Caribbean Plate are of Pacific origin. The previous argument for a Pacific origin of the Bermeja Complex presented by Montgomery et al. (1994a), based on their radiolarian age and their estimation of the oldest Proto-Caribbean oceanic crust, is nowadays seriously questionable, owing to the recent progresses in radiolarian biostratigraphy and new discoveries on the age of the first oceanic crust spreading between the Americas. Furthermore, we interpret the radiolarian Parvicingulidae-rich assemblages in the low-latitude Caribbean context as potential indicators of upwelling or land nutrients inputs, instead of indicators of paleolatitudes,as firstly stated by Pessagno and Blome (1986). Eventually, a discussion on the origin of the cherts of the Mariquita Formation illustrated by Middle Jurassic to middle Cretaceous geodynamic models of the Pacific and Caribbean realms bring up the possibility that the rocks of the Bermeja Complex are remnants of two different oceans.The Santa Rosa Accretionary Complex contains various oceanic assemblages of alkaline basalt, radiolarite and polymictic breccias. The radiolarian biochronology (19 illustrated assemblages, 232 species belonging to 63 genera) presented in this work indicate an Early Jurassic to early Late Cretaceous (early Pliensbachian to earliest Turonian) age for the sediments associated with oceanic basalts or recovered from blocks in breccias or megabreccias from the Santa Rosa Accretionary Complex. This study brings to light the Early Jurassic age of a sequence of ribbon-bedded radiolarite, which was previously thought to be of Cretaceous age, intruded by alkaline basalts sills. The presence of Early Jurassic large reworked blocks of radiolarite in a polymictic megabreccia, firstly reported by De Wever et al. (1985) is confirmed. Therefore, the alkaline basalt associated with these radiolarites could be of Jurassic age. In the Carrizal tectonic window, Middle Jurassic radiolarian chert blocks and Early Cretaceous brick-red ribbon-bedded radiolarites overlying pillow basalts are interpreted as fragments of a Middle Jurassic oceanic basement accreted to an Early Cretaceous oceanic plate, in an intra-oceanic subduction context. Whereas, knobby radiolarites and black shale at Playa Carrizal are indicative of a shallower middle Cretaceous paleoenvironment. Other younger oceanic remnants documented the rapid approach of the site of sedimentation to a subduction trench during the late Early Cretaceous (AlbianCenomanian), maybe early Late Cretaceous (Turonian).In total, 60 species belonging to 34 genera were present in relatively well-preserved radiolarian faunas from volcaniclastics and associated pelagic and hemipelagic rocks of the Matambú and Manzanillo terranes, ranging in age from Late Cretaceous to Early Paleogene (middle Turonian-Santonian to late Thanetian-Ypresian). This study shows that radiolarians can provide significant biostratigraphic control in the Nicoya Peninsula where very similar lithologies of different ages are present. Two radiolarian samples directly date the Berrugate Formation for the first time (middle Turonian-Santonian and Coniacian-Santonian). These ages allow to determine a volcanic arc activity on the western edge of the future Caribbean Plate at least since the Santonian that could have lasted through the middle Turonian-early Campanian interval by stratigraphic superposition. Moreover on the basis of these radiolarian ages, the Loma Chumico Formation of Albian age, and the Berrugate Formation of middle Turonian-early Maastrichtian age, can now be clearly differentiated. Two samples from the Sabana Grande Formation give a Coniacian-Santonian age and a Coniacian-Campanian age and indicate that there is a stratigraphic gap of ~10 million years between this formation and the underlying Albian Loma Chumico Formation.RésuméComme cela a pu se vérifier à plusieurs reprises lors de conférences géologiques récentes, le débat sur l'origine des terrains océaniques mésozoïques de la Plaque Caraïbes est toujours d'actualité. Les modèles géodynamiques décrivant l'histoire de la région caraïbes peuvent être classés en deux catégories basées sur l'origine de la Plaque Caraïbes : 1) Une origine in situ entre les Amériques ; 2) Une origine Pacifique et un transport vers l'est, par rapport aux Amériques. L'étude des radiolarites rubanées est capitale pour la détermination de l'origine des terrains océaniques allochtones du Mésozoïque et peut être utile pour parvenir à un compromis général concernant les principes basiques de l'évolution de la Plaque Caraïbes. Le complexe de Bermeja à Porto Rico qui est constitué de péridotites serpentinisées, de basaltes altérés, d'amphibolites et de cherts (Formation des Cherts de Mariquita), et le Complexe d'Accrétion de Santa Rosa qui affleure dans plusieurs demi-fenêtres tectoniques au sud de la Péninsule de Santa Elena au nord-ouest du Costa Rica sont deux de ces mélanges ophiolitiques peu décrits et déterminants. Les terrains de fore-arc de Manzanillo et de Matambu dans la Péninsule de Nicoya au nord-ouest du Costa Rica qui sont composés de calcaires siliceux et de cherts riches en radiolaires associés à du matériel volcanique d'arc mafique à intermédiaire, apportent d'importantes informations sur l'histoire de la marge active occidentale de la Plaque Caraïbe. Une étude systématique des radiolaires de ces trois régions est présentée dans ce travail sous forme de trois articles.La biochronologie des radiolaires de la Formation des Cherts de Mariquita du Complexe d'Accrétion de Santa Rosa présentée dans ce travail indique un âge Jurassique Moyen inférieur à Crétacé Supérieur inférieur (Bajocien supérieur-Callovien inférieur à Albien moyen-Cénomanien moyen) pour la Formation des Cherts de Mariquita. Les assemblages illustrés contiennent 150 espèces, parmis lesquelles 3 sont nouvelles (Pantanellium karinae, Loopus bermejaense et L. boricus), et appartenant à 59 genres différents. Une révision des travaux publiés précédemment sur les radiolaires de cette formation, ainsi que les résultats de cette étude suggèrent que le Complexe de Bermeja a un âge allant du Jurassique moyen au Crétacé Supérieur inférieur (Aalénien supérieur à Cénomanien moyen) et révèle aussi une caractéristique éventuelle du complexe qui est le rajeunissement des radiolarites du nord au sud, évoquant une polarité d'accrétion. Sur la base d'un inventaire actuellement exhaustif du facies radiolaritique rubané sur la Plaque Caraïbes, d'un nouvel examen de la distribution globale des sédiments du Jurassique Moyen associés à de la croûte océanique et d'une argumentation paléocéanographique sur les courants, nous arrivons à la conclusion que les radiolarites et les unités tectoniques océaniques du Mésozoïque associées de la Plaque Caraïbes sont d'origine pacifique. L'argument antérieur pour une origine pacifique du Complexe de Bermeja présenté par Montgomery et al. (1994a), basé sur leur âge à radiolaire et leur estimation de l'âge de la plus vieille croûte océanique des Proto-Caraïbes, est sérieusement remis en question aujourd'hui, en raison des progrès récents de la biostratigraphie des radiolaires et des nouvelles découvertes concernant l'âge du début de l'océanisation entre les Amériques. En outre, dans le contexte de basses latitudes des Caraïbes, nous interprétons les assemblages à radiolaires riches en Parvicingulidae comme étant des indicateurs potentiels d'apports en nutriments des zones d'uppwelling ou des terres, plutôt que des indicateurs de paléolatitudes, comme exposer pour la première fois par Pessagno et Blome (1986). Finalement, une discussion sur l'origine des cherts de la Formation de Mariquita illustrée par des modèles géodynamiques du Jurassique Moyen au Crétacé moyen des régions pacifique et caraïbes, fait poindre la possibilité que les roches du Complexe de Bermeja proviennent de deux océans différents.Le Complexe d'Accrétion de Santa Rosa contient plusieurs assemblages océaniques différents de basaltes alcalins, radiolarites et brèches polymictes. La biochronologie des radiolaires (19 assemblages illustrés, 232 espèces appartenant à 63 genres) présentée dans ce second travail indique un âge Jurassique Inférieur à Crétacé Supérieur inférieur (Pliensbachien inférieur à Turonien initial) pour les sédiments associés aux basaltes océaniques ou provenant de blocs dans des brèches ou des mégabrèches du Complexe d'Accrétion de Santa Rosa. Cette étude met en évidence l'âge Jurassique Inférieur d'une séquence de radiolarites rubanées entrecoupée de sills de basaltes alcalins, dont l'âge estimé était précédemment le Crétacé.La présence de blocs plurimétriques de radiolarites d'âge Jurassique Inférieur remaniés dans une mégabrèche polymicte, dont la présence avait été signalée par De Wever et al. (1985), est confirmée. Par conséquent, les basaltes alcalins associés à ces radiolarites pourraient aussi être d'âge Jurassique. Dans la fenêtre tectonique de Carrizal, des blocs de radiolarites d'âge Jurassique Moyen et des radiolarites du Crétacé Inférieur recouvrant des basaltes en coussins sont interprétés comme des fragments d'une croûte océanique d'âge Jurassique Moyen accrétés à une plaque océanique d'âge Crétacé Inférieur, dans un contexte de subduction intra-océanique. Alors que dans la même zone, les radiolarites « noueuses » et les argiles noires associées sont interprétées comme des indicateurs d'un milieu peu profond au Crétacé. D'autres fragments océaniques plus jeunes documentent une approche rapide du lieu de sédimentation vers une fosse de subduction pendant le Crétacé Inférieur supérieur (Albien-Cénomanien), peut-être Crétacé Supérieur (Turonien).Au total, 60 espèces appartenant à 34 genres ont été déterminées à partir de faunes à radiolaires relativement bien préservées, extraites de roches volcanoclastiques et pélagiques à hémipélagiques associées, provenant des terrains de Matambu et Manzanillo et ayant des âges compris entre le Crétacé Supérieur et le Paléogène Inférieur (Turonien moyen-Santonien à Thanétien supérieur-Yprésien). Cette étude montre que les radiolaires peuvent fournir un contrôle stratigraphique significatif dans la Péninsule de Nicoya, où des lithologies similaires, mais d'âges différents sont présentes. Deux échantillons à radiolaires permettent de dater la Formation de Berrugate pour la première fois (Turonien moyen-Santonien et Coniacien-Santonien). Ces âges permettent d'établir une activité volcanique d'arc le long de la marge occidentale de la futur Plaque Caraïbes au moins depuis le Santonien et qui pourrait avoir durée jusqu'au Turonien moyen-Campanien inférieur. De plus, sur la base de ces âges à radiolaires, la Formation de Loma Chumico d'âge Albien, et la Formation de Berrugate d'âge Turonien moyen-Maastrichtien inférieur, peuvent maintenant être différenciées. Deux échantillons de la Formation de Sabana Grande donnent des âges Coniacien-Santonien et Coniacien-Campanien et indiquent qu'il existe une lacune stratigraphique d'environ 10 millions d'années entre cette formation et la Formation de Loma Chumico sous-jacente d'âge Albien.
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Captan and folpet are two fungicides largely used in agriculture, but biomonitoring data are mostly limited to measurements of captan metabolite concentrations in spot urine samples of workers, which complicate interpretation of results in terms of internal dose estimation, daily variations according to tasks performed, and most plausible routes of exposure. This study aimed at performing repeated biological measurements of exposure to captan and folpet in field workers (i) to better assess internal dose along with main routes-of-entry according to tasks and (ii) to establish most appropriate sampling and analysis strategies. The detailed urinary excretion time courses of specific and non-specific biomarkers of exposure to captan and folpet were established in tree farmers (n = 2) and grape growers (n = 3) over a typical workweek (seven consecutive days), including spraying and harvest activities. The impact of the expression of urinary measurements [excretion rate values adjusted or not for creatinine or cumulative amounts over given time periods (8, 12, and 24 h)] was evaluated. Absorbed doses and main routes-of-entry were then estimated from the 24-h cumulative urinary amounts through the use of a kinetic model. The time courses showed that exposure levels were higher during spraying than harvest activities. Model simulations also suggest a limited absorption in the studied workers and an exposure mostly through the dermal route. It further pointed out the advantage of expressing biomarker values in terms of body weight-adjusted amounts in repeated 24-h urine collections as compared to concentrations or excretion rates in spot samples, without the necessity for creatinine corrections.
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As a thorough aggregation of probability and graph theory, Bayesian networks currently enjoy widespread interest as a means for studying factors that affect the coherent evaluation of scientific evidence in forensic science. Paper I of this series of papers intends to contribute to the discussion of Bayesian networks as a framework that is helpful for both illustrating and implementing statistical procedures that are commonly employed for the study of uncertainties (e.g. the estimation of unknown quantities). While the respective statistical procedures are widely described in literature, the primary aim of this paper is to offer an essentially non-technical introduction on how interested readers may use these analytical approaches - with the help of Bayesian networks - for processing their own forensic science data. Attention is mainly drawn to the structure and underlying rationale of a series of basic and context-independent network fragments that users may incorporate as building blocs while constructing larger inference models. As an example of how this may be done, the proposed concepts will be used in a second paper (Part II) for specifying graphical probability networks whose purpose is to assist forensic scientists in the evaluation of scientific evidence encountered in the context of forensic document examination (i.e. results of the analysis of black toners present on printed or copied documents).
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The knowledge of the relationship that links radiation dose and image quality is a prerequisite to any optimization of medical diagnostic radiology. Image quality depends, on the one hand, on the physical parameters such as contrast, resolution, and noise, and on the other hand, on characteristics of the observer that assesses the image. While the role of contrast and resolution is precisely defined and recognized, the influence of image noise is not yet fully understood. Its measurement is often based on imaging uniform test objects, even though real images contain anatomical backgrounds whose statistical nature is much different from test objects used to assess system noise. The goal of this study was to demonstrate the importance of variations in background anatomy by quantifying its effect on a series of detection tasks. Several types of mammographic backgrounds and signals were examined by psychophysical experiments in a two-alternative forced-choice detection task. According to hypotheses concerning the strategy used by the human observers, their signal to noise ratio was determined. This variable was also computed for a mathematical model based on the statistical decision theory. By comparing theoretical model and experimental results, the way that anatomical structure is perceived has been analyzed. Experiments showed that the observer's behavior was highly dependent upon both system noise and the anatomical background. The anatomy partly acts as a signal recognizable as such and partly as a pure noise that disturbs the detection process. This dual nature of the anatomy is quantified. It is shown that its effect varies according to its amplitude and the profile of the object being detected. The importance of the noisy part of the anatomy is, in some situations, much greater than the system noise. Hence, reducing the system noise by increasing the dose will not improve task performance. This observation indicates that the tradeoff between dose and image quality might be optimized by accepting a higher system noise. This could lead to a better resolution, more contrast, or less dose.