El Niño 2015/2016 impact analysis, monthly outlook March 2016

During the summer and autumn of 2015, El Niño conditions in the east and central Pacific strengthened, disrupting weather patterns throughout the tropics and into the mid-latitudes. For example, rainfall during the summer’s Indian monsoon was approximately 15% below normal. The continued strong El Niño conditions have the potential to trigger damaging impacts (e.g., droughts, famines, floods), particularly in less-developed tropical countries, which would require a swift and effective humanitarian response to mitigate damage to life and property (e.g., health, migration, infrastructure). This analysis uses key climatic variables (temperature, soil moisture and precipitation) as measures to monitor the ongoing risk of these potentially damaging impacts. The previous 2015-2016 El Niño Impact Analysis was based on observations over the past 35 years and produced Impact Tables showing the likelihood and severity of the impacts on temperature and rainfall by season. The current report is an extension of this work, providing information from observations and seasonal forecast models to give a more detailed outlook of the potential near-term impacts of the current El Niño conditions by region. This information has been added to the Impact Tables in the form of an ‘Observations and Outlook’ row. This consists of observational information for the past seasons of JJA 2015, SON 2015 and DJF 2015/2016, a detailed monthly outlook from 5 modeling centres for Mar 2016 and then longer-term seasonal forecast information from 2 modeling centres for the future seasons of AM 2016 and JJA 2016. The seasonal outlook information is an indication of the average likely conditions for that coming month (or season) and region and is not a definite prediction of weather impacts. This report has been produced by University of Reading for Evidence on Demand with the assistance of the UK Department for International Development (DFID) contracted through the Climate, Environment, Infrastructure and Livelihoods Professional Evidence and Applied Knowledge Services (CEIL PEAKS) programme, jointly managed by DAI (which incorporates HTSPE Limited) and IMC Worldwide Limited.

The Evolution of a Responsibility to Protect in Africa : The African Unions Emerging Peace and Security Regime

The thesis focuses on, and tries to evaluate, the role that the African Union (AU) plays in protecting the peace and security on the African continent. The thesis takes an interdisciplinary approach to the topic by both utilizing international relations and international law theories. The two disciplines are combined in an attempt to understand the evolution of the AU’s commitment to the pragmatist doctrine: responsibility to protect (R2P). The AU charter is considered to be the first international law document to cover R2P as it allows the AU to interfere in the internal affairs of its member states. The R2P doctrine was evolved around the notion of a need to arrive at a consensus in regard to the right to intervene in the face of humanitarian emergencies. A part of the post-Cold War shift in UN behaviour has been to support local solutions to local problems. Hereby the UN acts in collaboration with regional organizations, such as the AU, to achieve the shared aspirations to maintain international peace and security without getting directly involved on the ground. The R2P takes a more holistic and long-term approach to interventions by including an awareness of the need to address the root causes of the crisis in order to prevent future resurrections of conflicts. The doctrine also acknowledges the responsibility of the international community and the intervening parties to actively participate in the rebuilding of the post-conflict state. This requires sustained and well planned support to ensure the development of a stable society.While the AU is committed to implementing R2P, many of the AU’s members are struggling, both ideologically and practically, to uphold the foundations on which legitimate intervention rests, such as the protection of human rights and good governance. The fact that many members are also among the poorest countries in the world adds to the challenges facing the AU. A lack of human and material resources leads to a situation where few countries are willing, or able, to support a long-term commitment to humanitarian interventions. Bad planning and unclear mandates also limit the effectiveness of the interventions. This leaves the AU strongly dependent on regional powerbrokers such as Nigeria and South Africa, which in itself creates new problems in regard to the motivations behind interventions. The current AU charter does not provide sufficient checks and balances to ensure that national interests are not furthered through humanitarian interventions. The lack of resources within the AU also generates worries over what pressure foreign nations and other international actors apply through donor funding. It is impossible for the principle of “local solutions for local problems? to gain ground while this donor conditionality exists.The future of the AU peace and security regime is not established since it still is a work in progress. The direction that these developments will take depends on a wide verity of factors, many of which are beyond the immediate control of the AU.

Ökad förståelse bland företagsledare för nyttan av utvecklingsinsatser inom arbetsmiljöområdet

Sammanfattning Föreliggande rapport avser en delstudie inom projektet Attraktiv Konkurrenskraft (AKK) Syftet med detta arbete är att utvärdera fem metoder som kan ”väcka insikt” om nyttan av att starta utvecklingsaktiviteter för att bättre ta tillvara de mänskliga resurserna i arbetet. Baserat på detta ska en metod väljas för fördjupade studier. Drivkrafterna för att skapa bra arbetsmiljöer är många. Den primära kan sägas vara den humanitära drivkraften. Förutom de överväganden som ligger till grund för arbetsmiljölagstiftning och avtal mellan arbetsmarknadens parter finns alltså goda skäl för företagare att prioritera arbetsmiljöarbete. Den fråga som berörs i detta arbete är i vad mån det är möjligt att genom enkla insatser påverka en arbetsmiljöansvarig chefs benägenhet att gå till beslut om att genomföra insatser för att utveckla förutsättningarna för att bättre nyttja de mänskliga resurserna i organisationen. Målet är att chefen bestämmer sig för att påbörja en beslutsprocess om utvecklingsaktiviteter för att ta tillvara de mänskliga resurserna i arbetet vilket ökar förutsättningarna att rekrytera, behålla och engagera kompetent personal. Som resultat av förstudien har fem olika insiktsmetoder utvecklats och anpassats. Dessa metoder har kallats GAP-analys, Fokusgrupper Attraktivt Arbete, Visit, Riskanalys och Scenario. De tio företagen som deltog hade mellan 11 och 39 anställda, och deras verksamheter var inom områdena tillverkning, reparation och underhåll. Resultat från användning av metoderna visar att alla metoderna uppfyller kriterierna att vara enkla att förstå och snabba att genomföra. Fokusgrupper, Visit och Riskanalys ger konkret vägledning för fortsatt utvecklingsarbete. Fokusgrupper ger ett brett underlag för en fortsättning som bygger på dialog, en djupare analys på individnivå samt har psykiska och sociala dimensioner. Därmed sågs Fokusgrupper som den mest intressanta metoden att gå vidare med. Denna studie indikerar att det finns möjlighet att påverka ledare att ta beslut om aktiviteter för att utveckla den mänskliga resursen. Det finns därmed anledning att ytterligare studera ett antal företag där en och samma metod används. Valet har fallit på Fokusgrupper, även om andra metoder skulle vara tänkbara. Abstract This report concerns a sub-study of the project attractive competitiveness (AKK). The aim of the work is to evaluate five methods that are supposed to” raise awereness” about the advantages of initiating activities to better utilize human resources at work. Based on that shall one method be elected for depend studies. The driving forces for creation of good work environments are many. The primary can be said to be the humanitarian driving force. Except for the considerations that are behind the work environment legislations and agreements between social partners is therefore good reasons for entrepreneurs to give priority to work environment work. The focus of this study is to which extent it is possible by a limited input influence the liability of a manager with responsibilities for the work environment to take decisions to start a process aimed at improving the use of the human resources in the company. The goal is that the manager decides to start such a process which also is supposed to recruit, retain and engage competent staff. In the sub-study have five insight methods been developed or adapted. Those methods have been named gap-analysis, focus groups attractive work, visit, risk analysis, and scenario. The ten participating companies employed between eleven and thirty-nine persons. The companies represented different branches as production, repair work and maintenance. The results from the test of the methods shows that they all meet the criteria’s to be simple to understand and quick to carry through. Focus groups attractive work, visit, and risk analysis gives substantial guidance for further development work. Focus groups attractive work gives a broad base for a continuation built on a dialogue, a deeper analyses of individual level as well as mental and social dimensions. Of that reason chosen for deepened studies. This study indicates that there are possibilities to influence managers to decide about activities aimed at better use of human resources. There are therefore reasons to make further studies in a number of companies where the elected method is used.

Barnmorskans uppfattning om indikationer och effekter av förlossning med elektiva kejsarsnitt på humanitär indikation utifrån arbetslivserfarenhet : En intervjustudie

Bakgrund: Statistik visar på ökat antal elektiva kejsarsnitt internationellt och nationellt. Ett kejsarsnitt kan rädda liv på mor och barn om komplikationer uppstår, elektivt kejsarsnitt är även liksom andra stora operationer förenat med risker för komplikationer. Antalet elektiva kejsarsnitt på humanitär indikation har ökat i Sverige och cirka 17 % av alla förlossningar sker via kejsarsnitt. Att vårda och stödja kvinnor före, under och efter en förlossning med kejsarsnitt hör till barnmorskans arbete. Syftet med studien var att beskriva barnmorskors uppfattning om indikationer och effekter av förlossning med elektiva kejsarsnitt på humanitär indikation belyst utifrån arbetslivserfarenheter. Metod: kvalitativ metod: semistrukturella intervjuer med nio barnmorskor. Materialet analyserades via fenomenografisk analys i sju steg. Resultat: Fyra beskrivningskategorier framkom, Elektivt kejsarsnitt på humanitär indikation är ett etiskt dilemma, Elektivt kejsarsnitt på humanitär indikation är en stor operation, Elektivt kejsarsnitt på humanitär indikation påverkar organisation och barnmorskans arbetsmiljö och Elektivt kejsarsnitt på humanitär indikation påverkar kvinnans förlossningsupplevelse. Vidare framkom nio kategorier som beskriver barnmorskors uppfattningar. Slutsats Barnmorskor uppfattar elektiva kejsarsnitt som något komplext, att de med sina yrkeskunskaper värnar det naturliga vid kejsarsnitt på humanitär indikation och att de har brist på mandat att stödja och stärka kvinnors informerade val om elektivt kejsarsnitt på humanitär indikation. Klinisk tillämpbarhet: Resultatet kan användas vid undervisning kring barnmorskans stödjande och vårdande arbete i samband med förlossning via kejsarsnitt. Vidare kan resultatet vara underlag till diskussioner inom mödrahälsovård och förlossning i syfte att ge barnmorskor stärkt mandat till sina stödjande och informativa uppgifter.

Media Coverage and Charitable Giving After the 2004 Tsunami

Media coverage of humanitarian crises is widely believed to influence charitable giving, yet this assertion has received little empirical scrutiny. Using Internet donations after the 2004 tsunami as a case study in a tobit framework, we show that media coverage of disasters increases charitable donations, with an additional minute of nightly news coverage increasing donations by 0.036 standard deviations from the mean. We repeat the analysis using instrumental variables in a tobit model to account for endogeneity, and the estimates are unchanged. We also show that the magnitude and sign of media impact vary by news source and relief agency.

Sanções ao Irã: como elas vêm impactando a sociedade civil iraniana?

O presente trabalho visa analisar quais os efeitos das sanções impostas pelos Estados Unidos da América, União Europeia e Conselho de Segurança das Nações Unidas contra a sociedade civil da República Islâmica do Irã. Inicialmente será abordado o histórico da construção das sanções, observando como se deu a relação entre os EUA e o Irã após 1979 até a imposição das mais recentes sanções, com ênfase no período pós-2009, época que apresenta uma mudança no comportamento das entidades sancionadoras. Vê-se que a política norte-americana para o Irã sempre foi baseada na dualidade entre diálogo e pressões econômicas, sendo este ultimo utilizado como ferramenta para desenvolvimento do primeiro. Em seguida se analisará todo o arcabouço jurídico construído com vistas a restringir a capacidade econômica iraniana e consequentemente sua capacidade de desenvolver seu programa nuclear. Neste capitulo é observada a amplitude que alcançaram as sanções e como estas buscam apesar de tudo gerar mecanismos de alivio a sociedade civil, deixando transparecer um discurso humanitário. O ultimo capitulo terá como ênfase os impactos das sanções na sociedade civil, nele será demonstrado que apesar das exceções legislativas, a população iraniana tem sido amplamente afetada. Através da analise de depoimentos e de noticias de periódicos serão vistas quais foram esses impactos e sua extensão. Por fim faremos um breve balanço do que fora apresentado, refletindo se quais os resultados alcançados pelas sanções e se eles superam os custos sociais impostos a população iraniana.

O Tribunal de Contas da União inibe inovações em concessões públicas?

O Tribunal de Contas da União (TCU) fiscaliza as concessões públicas federais há mais de 20 anos. Quais os efeitos desse controle? Esta dissertação buscou verificar se a atuação do TCU inibe o surgimento de inovações em contratos de concessão pública. Por meio de uma análise qualitativa e quantitativa de dados referentes a contratos fiscalizados pelo TCU de 1993 a 2014, identificamos indícios de que um maior grau de intervencionismo do TCU está associado a uma menor quantidade de inovações em concessões públicas. Por outro lado, o aumento da burocracia nos processos de fiscalização do TCU não vem representando um obstáculo significativo para o surgimento de inovações nessa espécie de contrato.

A normalização das intervenções militares com propósitos humanitários pelo Conselho de Segurança das Nações Unidas: os casos da Líbia e da Síria

Este trabalho tem por escopo investigar a normalização das intervenções militares com propósitos humanitários no âmbito do Conselho de Segurança das Nações Unidas. Para tanto, abordou-se o tema em perspectiva histórica, considerando seu funcionamento e contexto de produção do discurso e focando por fim nas resoluções e projetos vetados de resoluções do Conselho de Segurança para a contenção dos conflitos civis na Líbia, entre fevereiro e outubro de 2011, e na Síria, entre março de 2011 e julho de 2012, no âmbito do fenômeno que ficou conhecido como “Primavera Árabe”.

As coisas estão no (meu) mundo, só que eu preciso aprender. Autobiografia, reflexividade e formação em Educação Nutricional

This paper gives clues for the educative action in nutrition subjects. It deals about the professors experiences deployments lived in 2003 e 2004, both in Nutrition undergraduate course of the Federal University of the Rio Grande do Norte (UFRN), in Nutrition Education and Supervised Internship in Social Nutrition academic disciplines, as well as in the II Update Course in Nutrition Practices for Health Basic Care , offered to the supervisors nutritionists of internship, in this same department, being able to be characterized as an action-research, with interventionism purpose. The study stands out the importance of a new point of view about the nutritionist formation to overcome the limits imposed by the scientism, and the adoption of a complex and reflexive reference about the educational practice in this area. The corpus is made up by 81 undergraduate students alimentary autobiography (source of generating subjects for interventions with the nutritionists), 17 questionnaires and 05 interviews, being 03 of them biography (the start up for an initial dialogue with the nutritionists). The data found and the professors experiences allied to a theoretic reference, by the light of the education proposals for the XXI century were used as establishment elements for the proposition of five guidance axles used to build a complex and reflexive nutrition education, which are: 1) Take the cookery and the culture of eating together as significant elements for the human being integral formation; 2) Conceive the religion manifestations associated to feeding process as relevant elements of the human food culture; 3) Discuss the rupture nature/culture aiming the preservation of live in earth; 4) Search for the overcoming of the identity conflicts by a higher inclosing conscience degrees of being part of this process. 5) Face the limits of fragmented formation. The presented thesis stands that the autobiography method, allied to the freirean pedagogy and to a complex reference, could be taken as an important tool to the health educative subjects, contributing to the formation of reflective individuals able to transform themselves and the world.

Análise do modelo de gestão implantado no Centro de Atenção Psicossocial CAPS II OESTE de 1995 a 2005, situado no distrito sanitário Oeste do município de Natal/RN, à luz da Co-gestão

This dissertation has as aim the praxis of co-management of the health service of CAPS II OESTE of Natal-RN, where health workers, family members got to materialize guidelines and principles of psychiatric Brazilian reform in real possibilities of subjectivity construction, whereas they changed social relations in daily life. The path chosen to record was from testimonials and contributions of those who meant their done. Redeeming this story from social representations of the majority of their builders was an instigating, delicate and rewarding task, emphasizing the living memory, rebuilt in a line of time which could not be found in simple documentary collections. Mainly, by knowing that service routine was intense and had as characteristic the singular mobility itself from a creation process and therefore not always its dynamic allowed adequate records. At the same time, from this occurred the field and bibliographic research which allowed the detailed information from the prior milestones and motivated to the practice here reported. The rereading of concepts in an interface with the reports of the interviewees enabled the verification that the model of mental health advocated by psychiatric reform was understood. Once noticed the presence of the beliefs and values of people in motivating energy for the progress of reform, it has gone to fetch theoretical subsidies of administrative order to understand how they saw this building and that uniqueness has been printed. The theoretical way and praxis have tracked here has allowed to analyze how occurred such a process of production and subjectivity and collectives that when organize enabled themselves for analysis and intervention, including in crisis situations. Therefore, it was revealed that ethical and multi-disciplinarity, the humanitarian sense, the coresponsibility, co-production and horizontal management were the key factors for spread from a changing protagonist. One can thus conclude that co-management from that collective has been multi-disciplinary weaving a cross

Gestão estratégica no terceiro setor: uma análise comparativa da construção de mapas estratégicos de organizações sem fins lucrativos

The strategy has an important role in organizations by identifying factors that need to be emphasized to organizational success and strategic map currently contemplates as a preview of organizational strategy, prepared from your planning. Third sector organizations need to take a competitive posture, establishing a sustainable position and maximizing the use of resources towards their social or humanitarian goals. This research aims to investigate the process of building strategic maps of two non-profit organizations by identifying and characterizing the steps common to these organizations. The research is characterized as qualitative descriptive and applied knowledge. Developed from bibliographical reviews and participant observation gathered in a case study, the data was collected in two third sector organizations and the results show that how to conduct the process may influence directly on your result lists. Among the steps identified, emphasis can be given to the formation of a team, the definition of strategy, the definition of strategic objectives, the gathering of those goals into perspective and the identification of the cause-effect relationship that relate. Marked as optional, but effective, conducting an event outside the premises of the company to complete the process, or any portion thereof. However, stands out as essential the active participation of senior management in the process, as a way to give credit to the initiative. These steps, its characteristics and its factors are described from comparisons between the processes adopted by the organizations surveyed

Conflito étnico, direitos humanos e intervenção internacional

Dans cet article, on examine comment les conflits ethniques atteignent de façon négative les droits de l'homme et comment a lieu l'intervention internationale en vue de la défense de ces droits. Pour cela, on oppose la structure qui déclenche des conflits ethniques et un cadre idéal où l'État serait capable d'assurer l'exercice des droits humains, selon l optique soutenue par les Nations Unies. Ainsi, à mesure qu'on dénonce les points où ce genre de conflit mine les fondements de ces droits, on construit un deuxième cadre où ils ne sont pas assurés, et c'est là que se pose la question de l'intervention humanitaire. Enfin, on observe que, malgré l'importance des droits humains dans l'après-Guerre Froide, ils ne forment pas une association d'objectifs. Il faut donc, pour comprendre les critères de sélection qui commandent les interventions humanitaires, prendre en compte d'autres intérêts.

A ousadia como horizonte: religando vida e ideias na formação em enfermagem

A proposal of formation in health/nursing built on classic science, on reducing thought and flexnerian paradigm is insufficient to comprehend and intervening with an amplified way on health needs of population, given that it is produced by fragmentation of knowledge, rationalization of thought, mechanizing and biological attitudes. It is necessary that formation in health/nursing allows the construction of effectiveness of principles and guidelines of Unique System of Health (Sistema Único de Saúde - SUS). In this context of emergency of a complex formation in health/nursing, life trajectories and formation of the nurses: Abigail Moura, Francisca Valda and Raimunda Germano are examples of transgressor and successful experiences which allow inquietude, changing and transforming formation patterns and self-formation. The present study is built from the comprehension of method as strategy , defended by Morin and complexity sciences. Has as objects building biographies of formation of these three nurses who express a formation model more totalizing and humanitarian, analyzing and discussing starting from the three biographic fragments guiding principles for the current process of formation in health/nursing. From the biographies, the courage and humbleness emerge as landmarking principles of their experiences. Humbleness neither as self-depreciation nor humiliation but as consciousness of our uncompleted and unfinished essence, acceptance of boundaries and potential and reduction of intellectual vanity. Courage, for its part, is the human pulsing, uncertain for nature, which brings us to act, to face and persevere on moments of fear and difficulties. A formation in health and nursing based on courage and humbleness allows the subjects to be taken away from indifference, arrogance, inertia, pragmatism: bets on ethic and political subjects capable of minimizing unequal, inhumane and excluding processes. Na intellectual and Professional attitude which politizes the thought and science is what must be expected from a complex formation in health field, in latu mode on nursing, in particular