Making decisions in the absence of clear facts: a historical perspective

Recently, a claim has been made that executive decisions makers, far from being fact collectors, are actually fact users and integrators. As such, the claim continues, executive decision makers need help in understanding how to interpret facts, as well as guidance in making decisions in the absence of clear facts. This report justifies this claim against the backdrop of the modern history of decision making, from 1956 to the present. The historical excursion serves to amplify and clarify the claim, as well as to develop a theoretical framework for making decisions in the absence of clear facts. Two essential issues are identified that impact upon decision making in the absence of clear facts, as well criteria for decision making effectiveness under such circumstances. Methodological requirements and practical objectives round off the theoretical framework. The historical analysis enables the identification of one particular established methodology as claiming to meet the methodological requirements of the theoretical framework. Since the methodology has yet to be tried on information-poor situations, a further project is proposed that will test its validity.

Developmental class coalitions: historical experiences and prospects

Este artigo discute o conceito de coalizões de classe como uma alternativa parcial à luta de classes na compreensão das sociedades capitalistas; define duas coalizões de classes básicas - a desenvolvimentista e a liberal; apresenta brevemente três coalizões de classe desenvolvimentistas paradigmáticas - a mercantilista, a bismarckiana, e a social-democrata (ou dos anos dourados do capitalismo); e usa esse arcabouço teórico para entender o capitalismo contemporâneo nos anos pós neoliberais - os anos que se seguem a crise financeira global de 2008

The BRICS: some historical experiences, growth challenges and opportunities

The acronym BRICS was a fad among the media and global investors. Now, the acronym sounds passé. However, the group of countries remains important, from both political and economic reasons. They have a large aggregate size, 28% of the global GDP and 42% of the world’s population, high growth potential due to the current significant misallocation of resources and relatively low stock of human capital, structural transformation is in progress and one of them, China, is taking steps to become a global power and a challenger to the US dominance. This paper provides a brief overview of the five economies, Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. We focus on some aspects of their history, the Chinese initiatives in international finance and geopolitical strategic moves, their growth experience and structural transformation over the last 35 years, trade and investment integration into the global economy and among themselves, the growth challenges faced by their economies and the potential gains to the Brazilian economy from a stronger integration with the other BRICS. In association with its efforts to be a global power, China aims to become a major player in global finance and to achieve the status of global currency for the renminbi, which would be the first currency of an emerging economy to attain such position. Despite the similarities, the BRICS encompass very diverse economies. In the recent decades, China and India showed stellar growth rates. On the other hand, Brazil, Russia and South Africa have expanded just in line with global output growth with the Russian economy exhibiting high volatility. China is by far the largest economy, and South Africa the smallest, the only BRICS economy with a GDP lower than US$ 1 trillion. Russia abandoned communism almost 25 years ago, but reversed many of the privatizations of 90’s. China is still ruled by communism, but has a vibrant private sector and recently has officially declared market forces to play a dominant role in its economy. Brazil, Russia and South Africa are global natural resources powerhouses and commodity exporters while China and India are large commodity importers. Brazil is relatively closed to international trade of goods and services, in marked contrast to the other four economies. Brazil, India and South Africa are dependent on external capital flows whereas China and Russia are capital exporters. India and South Africa have younger populations and a large portion living below the poverty line. Despite its extraordinary growth experience that lifted many millions from poverty, China still has 28% of its population classified as poor. Russia and China have much older populations and one of their challenges is to deal with the effects of a declining labor force in the near future. India, China and South Africa face a long way to urbanization, while Brazil and Russia are already urbanized countries. China is an industrial economy but its primary sector still absorbs a large pool of workers. India is not, but the primary sector employs also a large share of the labor force. China’s aggregate demand structure is biased towards investment that has been driving its expansion. Brazil and South Africa have an aggregate demand structure similar to the developed economies, with private consumption accounting for approximately 70%. The same similarity applies to the supply side, as in both economies the share of services nears 70%. The development problem is a productivity problem, so microeconomic reforms are badly needed to foster long-term growth of the BRICS economies since they have lost steam due a variety of factors, but fundamentally due to slower total factor productivity growth. China and India are implementing ambitious reform programs, while Brazil is dealing with macroeconomic disequilibria. Russia and South Africa remain mute about structural reforms. There are some potential benefits to Brazil to be extracted from a greater economic integration with the BRICS, particularly in natural resources intensive industries and services. Necessary conditions to the materialization of those gains are the removal of the several sources of resource misallocation and strong investment in human capital.

Relating pseudospin and spin symmetries through charge conjugation and chiral transformations: the case of the relativistic harmonic oscillator

We solve the generalized relativistic harmonic oscillator in 1+1 dimensions, i.e., including a linear pseudoscalar potential and quadratic scalar and vector potentials which have equal or opposite signs. We consider positive and negative quadratic potentials and discuss in detail their bound-state solutions for fermions and antifermions. The main features of these bound states are the same as the ones of the generalized three-dimensional relativistic harmonic oscillator bound states. The solutions found for zero pseudoscalar potential are related to the spin and pseudospin symmetry of the Dirac equation in 3+1 dimensions. We show how the charge conjugation and gamma(5) chiral transformations relate the several spectra obtained and find that for massless particles the spin and pseudospin symmetry-related problems have the same spectrum but different spinor solutions. Finally, we establish a relation of the solutions found with single-particle states of nuclei described by relativistic mean-field theories with scalar, vector, and isoscalar tensor interactions and discuss the conditions in which one may have both nucleon and antinucleon bound states.

Spin and pseudospin symmetries in the antinucleon spectrum of nuclei

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Spin and pseudospin symmetries in the Dirac equation with central Coulomb potentials

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE and HUMAN CONSEQUENCES of AFRICANIZED BEE STINGS IN THE AMERICAS

In 1956, Africanized bees began to spread in the American continent from southern Brazil, where original African bees mated with European bees. A few years later, in 1990, these Africanized bees reached the United States and were found in Texas. Currently, these hybrid bees are found in several North American states and will probably reach the Canadian border in the future. Although the presence of Africanized bees had produced positive effects on Brazilian economy, including improvement in crop pollination and in honey production, turning Brazil into a major exporter, the negative impacts-such as swarming, aggressive behavior, and the ability to mass attack-resulted in serious and fatal envenomation with humans and animals. Victims of bee attacks usually develop a severe envenomation syndrome characterized by the release of a large amount of cytokines [interleukins (IL) IL-1, IL-6, IL-8], and tumor necrosis factor (TNF). Subsequently, such cytokines produce an acute inflammatory response that triggers adverse effects on skeletal muscles; bone marrow; hepatic and renal functions; and cardiovascular, central nervous, and immune systems. Finally, the aim of the present review is to study historical characteristics and current status of Africanized bees' spread, the composition of their venom, the impact of the bees on the Brazilian economy and ecology, and clinical aspects of their stings including immune response, and to suggest a protocol for bee sting management since there is no safe and effective antivenom available.

Molecular systematic and historical biogeography of the armored Neotropical catfishes Hypoptopomatinae and Neoplecostominae (Siluriformes: Loricariidae)

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Bouchardia rosea, a vanishing brachiopod species of the Brazilian platform: taphonomy, historical ecology and conservation paleobiology

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Historical aspects of Belly Dance and its practice in Brazil

Dance is regarded as one of the oldest art forms, which is based on evidence from prehistoric paintings found in caves; man expressed himself through body language prior to the development of spoken and written forms of communication. Dance was then used during important events, common to their era and culture, and often in religious rituals, to ensure good harvests - their economic activity. Belly-dance appeared approximately eight thousand years B. C. E. as a sacred dance firstly practiced by priestesses, and after that, it was popularized amongst women from Mesopotamia. Virtually considered an ancient form of physical exercise, it is still practiced by Bedouin women as a preparation for spontaneous delivery. In Brazil, belly-dance is widely practiced and our corporal culture enables its learning and improvement, resulting in professional dancers.

Historical biogeography and conservation of the golden-striped salamander (Chioglossa lusitanica) in northwestern Iberia: integrating ecological, phenotypic and phylogeographic data

The golden-striped salamander (Chioglossa lusitanica) is an endemic species inhabiting stream-side habitats in mountainous areas in the northwestern Iberian Peninsula. This salamandrid is listed in the IUCN Red Data Book as a threatened species. The combination of bioclimatic modeling of the species distribution and multivariate analysis of genetic and phenotypic data strengthens previous hypotheses concerning the historical biogeography of C. lusitanica: the Pleistocene subdivision of the species' range and a process of postglacial recolonization. Discrepancies between bioclimatic modeling predictions and the present-day distribution suggest that the species may still be expanding its range northwards. We propose the identification of two distinct units for the conservation of the species and suggest that this information should be taken into account in defining key areas for conservation in the Iberian Peninsula.

Functional and historical determinants of shape in the scapula of Xenarthran mammals: Evolution of a complex morphological structure

The mammalian scapula is a complex morphological structure, composed of two ossification plates that fuse into a single structure. Most studies on morphological differentiation in the scapula have considered it to be a simple, spatially integrated structure, primarily influenced by the important locomotor function presented by this element. We used recently developed geometric morphometric techniques to test and quantify functional and phylogenetic influences on scapular shape variation in fossil and extant xenarthran mammals. The order Xenarthra is well represented in the fossil record and presents a stable phylogenetic hypothesis for its genealogical history. In addition, its species present a large variety of locomotor habits. Our results show that approximately half of the shape variation in the scapula is due to phylogenetic heritage. This is contrary to the view that the scapula is influenced only by functional demands. There are large-scale shape transformations that provide biomechanical adaptation for the several habits (arboreality, terrestriality, and digging), and small scale-shape transformations (mostly related to the coracoid process) that are not influenced by function. A nonlinear relationship between morphometric and phylogenetic distances indicates the presence of a complex mixture of evolutionary processes acting on shape differentiation of the scapula. J. Morphol. 241,251-263, 1999. (C) 1999 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Naturally light invisible axion in models with large local discrete symmetries

We show that by introducing appropriate local Z(N)(Ngreater than or equal to13) symmetries in electroweak models it is possible to implement an automatic Peccei-Quinn symmetry, at the same time keeping the axion protected against gravitational effects. Although we consider here only an extension of the standard model and a particular 3-3-1 model, the strategy can be used in any kind of electroweak model. An interesting feature of this 3-3-1 model is that if we add (i) right-handed neutrinos, (ii) the conservation of the total lepton number, and (iii) a Z(2) symmetry, the Z(13) and the chiral Peccei-Quinn U(1)P-Q symmetries are both accidental symmetries in the sense that they are not imposed on the Lagrangian but are just a consequence of the particle content of the model, its gauge invariance, renormalizability, and Lorentz invariance. In addition, this model has no domain wall problem.

SU(2,R)(q) symmetries of Non-Abelian Toda theories

The classical and quantum algebras of a class of conformal NA-Toda models are studied. It is shown that the SL(2,R)(q) Poisson brackets algebra generated by certain chiral and antichiral charges of the nonlocal currents and the global U(1) charge appears as an algebra of the symmetries of these models. (C) 1998 Elsevier B.V. B.V. All rights reserved.