Spatial econometric issues for bio-economic and land-use modelling

We survey the literature on spatial bio-economic and land-use modelling and assess its thematic development. Unobserved site-specific heterogeneity is a feature of almost all the surveyed works, and this feature, it seems, has stimulated significant methodological innovation. In an attempt to improve the suitability with which the prototype incorporates heterogeneity, we consider modelling alternatives and extensions. We discuss solutions and conjecture others.

Clinical and subclinical mastitis in smallholder dairy farms in Tanzania: Risk, intervention and knowledge transfer

In a cross-sectional study of 400 randomly selected smallholder dairy farms in the Tanga and Iringa regions of Tanzania, 14.2% (95% confidence interval (CI) = 11.6-17.3) of cows had developed clinical mastitis during the previous year. The point prevalence of subclinical mastitis, defined as a quarter positive by the California Mastitis Test (CMT) or by bacteriological culture, was 46.2% (95% Cl = 43.6-48.8) and 24.3% (95% Cl = 22.2-26.6), respectively. In a longitudinal disease study in Iringa, the incidence of clinical mastitis was 31.7 cases per 100 cow-years. A randomised intervention trial indicated that intramammary antibiotics significantly reduced the proportion of bacteriologically positive quarters in the short-term (14 days post-infusion) but teat dipping had no detectable effect on bacteriological infection and CMT positive quarters. Other risk and protective factors were identified from both the cross-sectional and longitudinal included animals with Boran breeding (odds ratio (OR) = 3,40, 95% CI = 1.00-11.57, P < 0.05 for clinical mastitis, and OR = 3.51, 95% CI = 1.299.55, P < 0.01 for a CMT positive quarter), while the practice of residual calf suckling was protective for a bacteriologically positive quarter (OR = 0.63, 95% Cl = 0.48-0.81, P <= 0.001) and for a CMT positive quarter (OR = 0.69, 95% Cl = 0.63-0.75, P < 0.001). A mastitis training course for farmers and extension officers was held, and the knowledge gained and use of different methods of dissemination were assessed over time. In a subsequent randomised controlled trial, there were strong associations between knowledge gained and both the individual question asked and the combination of dissemination methods (village meeting, video and handout) used. This study demonstrated that both clinical and subclinical mastitis is common in smallholder dairying in Tanzania, and that some of the risk and protective factors for mastitis can be addressed by practical management of dairy cows following effective knowledge transfer. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Clinical and subclinical mastitis in smallholder dairy farms in Tanzania: Risk, intervention and knowledge transfer

In a cross-sectional study of 400 randomly selected smallholder dairy farms in the Tanga and Iringa regions of Tanzania, 14.2% (95% confidence interval (CI) = 11.6-17.3) of cows had developed clinical mastitis during the previous year. The point prevalence of subclinical mastitis, defined as a quarter positive by the California Mastitis Test (CMT) or by bacteriological culture, was 46.2% (95% Cl = 43.6-48.8) and 24.3% (95% Cl = 22.2-26.6), respectively. In a longitudinal disease study in Iringa, the incidence of clinical mastitis was 31.7 cases per 100 cow-years. A randomised intervention trial indicated that intramammary antibiotics significantly reduced the proportion of bacteriologically positive quarters in the short-term (14 days post-infusion) but teat dipping had no detectable effect on bacteriological infection and CMT positive quarters. Other risk and protective factors were identified from both the cross-sectional and longitudinal included animals with Boran breeding (odds ratio (OR) = 3,40, 95% CI = 1.00-11.57, P < 0.05 for clinical mastitis, and OR = 3.51, 95% CI = 1.299.55, P < 0.01 for a CMT positive quarter), while the practice of residual calf suckling was protective for a bacteriologically positive quarter (OR = 0.63, 95% Cl = 0.48-0.81, P <= 0.001) and for a CMT positive quarter (OR = 0.69, 95% Cl = 0.63-0.75, P < 0.001). A mastitis training course for farmers and extension officers was held, and the knowledge gained and use of different methods of dissemination were assessed over time. In a subsequent randomised controlled trial, there were strong associations between knowledge gained and both the individual question asked and the combination of dissemination methods (village meeting, video and handout) used. This study demonstrated that both clinical and subclinical mastitis is common in smallholder dairying in Tanzania, and that some of the risk and protective factors for mastitis can be addressed by practical management of dairy cows following effective knowledge transfer. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Epidemiological risk assessment using linked network and grid based modelling: Phytophthora ramorum and Phytophthora kernoviae in the UK

We developed a stochastic simulation model incorporating most processes likely to be important in the spread of Phytophthora ramorum and similar diseases across the British landscape (covering Rhododendron ponticum in woodland and nurseries, and Vaccinium myrtillus in heathland). The simulation allows for movements of diseased plants within a realistically modelled trade network and long-distance natural dispersal. A series of simulation experiments were run with the model, representing an experiment varying the epidemic pressure and linkage between natural vegetation and horticultural trade, with or without disease spread in commercial trade, and with or without inspections-with-eradication, to give a 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 factorial started at 10 arbitrary locations spread across England. Fifty replicate simulations were made at each set of parameter values. Individual epidemics varied dramatically in size due to stochastic effects throughout the model. Across a range of epidemic pressures, the size of the epidemic was 5-13 times larger when commercial movement of plants was included. A key unknown factor in the system is the area of susceptible habitat outside the nursery system. Inspections, with a probability of detection and efficiency of infected-plant removal of 80% and made at 90-day intervals, reduced the size of epidemics by about 60% across the three sectors with a density of 1% susceptible plants in broadleaf woodland and heathland. Reducing this density to 0.1% largely isolated the trade network, so that inspections reduced the final epidemic size by over 90%, and most epidemics ended without escape into nature. Even in this case, however, major wild epidemics developed in a few percent of cases. Provided the number of new introductions remains low, the current inspection policy will control most epidemics. However, as the rate of introduction increases, it can overwhelm any reasonable inspection regime, largely due to spread prior to detection. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Combined affinity labelling and mass spectrometry analysis of differential cell surface protein expression in normal and prostate cancer cells

Differences in the expression of cell surface proteins between a normal prostate epithelial (1542-NP2TX) and a prostate cancer cell line (1542-CP3TX) derived from the same patient were investigated. A combination of affinity chromatographic purification of biotin-tagged surface proteins with mass spectrometry analysis identified 26 integral membrane proteins and 14 peripheral surface proteins. The findings confirm earlier reports of altered expression in prostate cancer for several cell surface proteins, including ALCAM/CD166, the Ephrin type A receptor, EGFR and the prostaglandin F2 receptor regulatory protein. In addition, several novel findings of differential expression were made, including the voltage-dependent anion selective channel proteins Porin 1 and 2, ecto-5'-nucleotidase (CD73) and Scavenger receptor B1. Cell surface protein expression changed both qualitatively and quantitatively when the cells were grown in the presence of either or both interferon INFalpha and INFgamma. Costimulation with type I and II interferons had additive or synergistic effects on the membrane density of several, mainly peripherally attached surface proteins. Concerted upregulation of surface exposed antigens may be of benefit in immuno-adjuvant-based treatment of interferon-responsive prostate cancer. In conclusion, this study demonstrates that differences in the expression of membrane proteins between normal and prostate cancer cells are reproducibly detectable following vectorial labelling with biotin, and that detailed analysis of extracellular-induced surface changes can be achieved by combining surface-specific labelling with high-resolution two-dimensional gel electrophoresis and mass spectrometry.

Combined affinity labelling and mass spectrometry analysis of differential cell surface protein expression in normal and prostate cancer cells

Differences in the expression of cell surface proteins between a normal prostate epithelial (1542-NP2TX) and a prostate cancer cell line (1542-CP3TX) derived from the same patient were investigated. A combination of affinity chromatographic purification of biotin-tagged surface proteins with mass spectrometry analysis identified 26 integral membrane proteins and 14 peripheral surface proteins. The findings confirm earlier reports of altered expression in prostate cancer for several cell surface proteins, including ALCAM/CD166, the Ephrin type A receptor, EGFR and the prostaglandin F2 receptor regulatory protein. In addition, several novel findings of differential expression were made, including the voltage-dependent anion selective channel proteins Porin 1 and 2, ecto-5'-nucleotidase (CD73) and Scavenger receptor B1. Cell surface protein expression changed both qualitatively and quantitatively when the cells were grown in the presence of either or both interferon INF alpha and INF gamma. Costimulation with type I and II interferons had additive or synergistic effects on the membrane density of several, mainly peripherally attached surface proteins. Concerted upregulation of surface exposed antigens may be of benefit in immuno-adjuvant-based treatment of interferon-responsive prostate cancer. In conclusion, this study demonstrates that differences in the expression of membrane proteins between normal and prostate cancer cells are reproducibly detectable following vectorial labelling with biotin, and that detailed analysis of extracellular-induced surface changes can be achieved by combining surface-specific labelling with high-resolution two-dimensional gel electrophoresis and mass spectrometry.

Changes in the Mediterranean climate during the Holocene: insights from global and regional climate modelling

Palaeoproxy records alone are seldom sufficient to provide a full assessment of regional palaeoclimates. To better understand the possible changes in the Mediterranean climate during the Holocene, a series of palaeoclimate integrations for periods spanning the last 12 000 years have been performed and their results diagnosed. These simulations use the HadSM3 global climate model, which is then dynamically downscaled to approximately 50 km using a consistent regional climate model (HadRM3). Changes in the model’s seasonal-mean surface air temperatures and precipitation are discussed at both global and regional scales, along with the physical mechanisms underlying the changes. It is shown that the global model reproduces many of the large-scale features of the mid-Holocene climate (consistent with previous studies) and that the results suggest that many areas within the Mediterranean region were wetter during winter with a stronger seasonal cycle of surface air temperatures during the early Holocene. This precipitation signal in the regional model is strongest in the in the northeast Mediterranean (near Turkey), consistent with low-level wind patterns and earlier palaeosyntheses. It is, however, suggested that further work is required to fully understand the changes in the winter circulation patterns over the Mediterranean region.

Integration of remote sensing and GIS for modelling flash floods in Wadi Hudain catchment, Egypt

This paper presents a new approach to modelling flash floods in dryland catchments by integrating remote sensing and digital elevation model (DEM) data in a geographical information system (GIS). The spectral reflectance of channels affected by recent flash floods exhibit a marked increase, due to the deposition of fine sediments in these channels as the flood recedes. This allows the parts of a catchment that have been affected by a recent flood event to be discriminated from unaffected parts, using a time series of Landsat images. Using images of the Wadi Hudain catchment in southern Egypt, the hillslope areas contributing flow were inferred for different flood events. The SRTM3 DEM was used to derive flow direction, flow length, active channel cross-sectional areas and slope. The Manning Equation was used to estimate the channel flow velocities, and hence the time-area zones of the catchment. A channel reach that was active during a 1985 runoff event, that does not receive any tributary flow, was used to estimate a transmission loss rate of 7·5 mm h−1, given the maximum peak discharge estimate. Runoff patterns resulting from different flood events are quite variable; however the southern part of the catchment appears to have experienced more floods during the period of study (1984–2000), perhaps because the bedrock hillslopes in this area are more effective at runoff production than other parts of the catchment which are underlain by unconsolidated Quaternary sands and gravels. Due to high transmission loss, runoff generated within the upper reaches is rarely delivered to the alluvial fan and Shalateen city situated at the catchment outlet. The synthetic GIS-based time area zones, on their own, cannot be relied on to model the hydrographs reliably; physical parameters, such as rainfall intensity, distribution, and transmission loss, must also be considered.

Molybdate and tungstate transfer by rat ileum competitive inhibition by sulphate

For both MoO42− and WO42− the maximum rate of uptake by the small intestine of the rat (studied in vitro using the everted sac technique) occurs in the lower ileum. Kinetic constants, derived by a least squares procedure, are compared with those previously obtained for SO42− transport. For both and , , with only small differences between sacs IV and V. Mutual inhibition of MoO42− and WO42− transport and inhibition of both by SO42− are competitive processes. This is shown by the generally good agreement between values and derived values and by V values in the presence and absence of the inhibiting species. The three ions SO42−, MoO42− and WO42− are probably transferred across the intestine by a common carrier system. Implications for the sulphate-molybdenum interaction in molybdosis are discussed.

The impact of 21st century Arctic sea ice decline on the climate and mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet and Svalbard’s glaciers and ice caps

The Arctic is a region particularly susceptible to rapid climate change. General circulation models (GCMs) suggest a polar amplification of any global warming signal by a factor of about 1.5 due, in part, to sea ice feedbacks. The dramatic recent decline in multi-year sea ice cover lies outside the standard deviation of the CMIP3 ensemble GCM predictions. Sea ice acts as a barrier between cold air and warmer oceans during winter, as well as inhibiting evaporation from the ocean surface water during the summer. An ice free Arctic would likely have an altered hydrological cycle with more evaporation from the ocean surface leading to changes in precipitation distribution and amount. Using the U.K. Met Office Regional Climate Model (RCM), HadRM3, the atmospheric effects of the observed and projected reduction in Arctic sea ice are investigated. The RCM is driven by the atmospheric GCM HadAM3. Both models are forced with sea surface temperature and sea ice for the period 2061-2090 from the CMIP3 HadGEM1 experiments. Here we use an RCM at 50km resolution over the Arctic and 25km over Svalbard, which captures well the present-day pattern of precipitation and provides a detailed picture of the projected changes in the behaviour of the oceanic-atmosphere moisture fluxes and how they affect precipitation. These experiments show that the projected 21stCentury sea ice decline alone causes large impacts to the surface mass balance (SMB) on Svalbard. However Greenland’s SMB is not significantly affected by sea ice decline alone, but responds with a strongly negative shift in SMB when changes to SST are incorporated into the experiments. This is the first study to characterise the impact of changes in future sea ice to Arctic terrestrial cryosphere mass balance.