A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

BACKGROUND Quantification of the disease burden caused by different risks informs prevention by providing an account of health loss different to that provided by a disease-by-disease analysis. No complete revision of global disease burden caused by risk factors has been done since a comparative risk assessment in 2000, and no previous analysis has assessed changes in burden attributable to risk factors over time. METHODS We estimated deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs; sum of years lived with disability [YLD] and years of life lost [YLL]) attributable to the independent effects of 67 risk factors and clusters of risk factors for 21 regions in 1990 and 2010. We estimated exposure distributions for each year, region, sex, and age group, and relative risks per unit of exposure by systematically reviewing and synthesising published and unpublished data. We used these estimates, together with estimates of cause-specific deaths and DALYs from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010, to calculate the burden attributable to each risk factor exposure compared with the theoretical-minimum-risk exposure. We incorporated uncertainty in disease burden, relative risks, and exposures into our estimates of attributable burden. FINDINGS In 2010, the three leading risk factors for global disease burden were high blood pressure (7·0% [95% uncertainty interval 6·2-7·7] of global DALYs), tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke (6·3% [5·5-7·0]), and alcohol use (5·5% [5·0-5·9]). In 1990, the leading risks were childhood underweight (7·9% [6·8-9·4]), household air pollution from solid fuels (HAP; 7·0% [5·6-8·3]), and tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke (6·1% [5·4-6·8]). Dietary risk factors and physical inactivity collectively accounted for 10·0% (95% UI 9·2-10·8) of global DALYs in 2010, with the most prominent dietary risks being diets low in fruits and those high in sodium. Several risks that primarily affect childhood communicable diseases, including unimproved water and sanitation and childhood micronutrient deficiencies, fell in rank between 1990 and 2010, with unimproved water and sanitation accounting for 0·9% (0·4-1·6) of global DALYs in 2010. However, in most of sub-Saharan Africa childhood underweight, HAP, and non-exclusive and discontinued breastfeeding were the leading risks in 2010, while HAP was the leading risk in south Asia. The leading risk factor in Eastern Europe, most of Latin America, and southern sub-Saharan Africa in 2010 was alcohol use; in most of Asia, North Africa and Middle East, and central Europe it was high blood pressure. Despite declines, tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke remained the leading risk in high-income north America and western Europe. High body-mass index has increased globally and it is the leading risk in Australasia and southern Latin America, and also ranks high in other high-income regions, North Africa and Middle East, and Oceania. INTERPRETATION Worldwide, the contribution of different risk factors to disease burden has changed substantially, with a shift away from risks for communicable diseases in children towards those for non-communicable diseases in adults. These changes are related to the ageing population, decreased mortality among children younger than 5 years, changes in cause-of-death composition, and changes in risk factor exposures. New evidence has led to changes in the magnitude of key risks including unimproved water and sanitation, vitamin A and zinc deficiencies, and ambient particulate matter pollution. The extent to which the epidemiological shift has occurred and what the leading risks currently are varies greatly across regions. In much of sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risks are still those associated with poverty and those that affect children.

Free Sherlock: The copyright battle of Baker Street

Sherlock Holmes faces his greatest challenge – since his fight to the death with Professor James Moriarty at Reichenbach Falls. Who owns Sherlock Holmes, the world’s greatest detective? Is it the estate of Sir Arthur Conan Doyle? Or the mysterious socialite Andrea Plunket? Or does Sherlock Holmes belong to the public? This is the question currently being debated in copyright litigation in the United States courts, raising larger questions about copyright law and the public domain, the ownership of literary characters, and the role of sequels, adaptations, and mash-ups.

Russell D James and Peter J Wosh (eds)

Public Relations and Marketing for Archives: A How-to-do-it Manual, New York, Neal-Schuman Publishers with the Society of American Archivists, 2011. xiv + 273 pp. ISBN 978-1-5557-0733-0. US$80.00 Public Relations and Marketing for Archives – A How-To-Do-It Manual provides a brief, but broad overview of the key elements of marketing, public relations and stakeholder engagement for archives...

Adding paths to resilience and daily accounts to an already rich field of inquiry: A brief commentary on James Jackson's "Social structure and health disparities"

In absolute terms, there have been improvements in social resources for all racial and ethnic groups in the United States. The rise in education levels among blacks and Hispanics, for instance, suggests a lessening of the gap between classes, beginning in the later part of the 1960’s (Kao & Thompson, 2003). Yet the divide in income and to a lesser extent education between peoples who differ in gender, skin color and ethnic origin continues and in many ways is greater now than ever (Danziger & Gottschalk, 1997); (Gottschalk, 1997). The psychological distance between those high and those low in social-economic status continues unabated and threatens to undermine the capacity of communities to foster the positive architecture of hope, optimism and equal opportunity that holds us together as a nation...

Localization of type 1 diabetes susceptibility to the MHC class I genes HLA-B and HLA-A

The major histocompatibility complex (MHC) on chromosome 6 is associated with susceptibility to more common diseases than any other region of the human genome, including almost all disorders classified as autoimmune. In type 1 diabetes the major genetic susceptibility determinants have been mapped to the MHC class II genes HLA-DQB1 and HLA-DRB1 (refs 1–3), but these genes cannot completely explain the association between type 1 diabetes and the MHC region4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11. Owing to the region's extreme gene density, the multiplicity of disease-associated alleles, strong associations between alleles, limited genotyping capability, and inadequate statistical approaches and sample sizes, which, and how many, loci within the MHC determine susceptibility remains unclear. Here, in several large type 1 diabetes data sets, we analyse a combined total of 1,729 polymorphisms, and apply statistical methods—recursive partitioning and regression...

Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 306 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 188 countries, 1990–2013: Quantifying the epidemiological transition

Background The Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) aims to bring together all available epidemiological data using a coherent measurement framework, standardised estimation methods, and transparent data sources to enable comparisons of health loss over time and across causes, age–sex groups, and countries. The GBD can be used to generate summary measures such as disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE) that make possible comparative assessments of broad epidemiological patterns across countries and time. These summary measures can also be used to quantify the component of variation in epidemiology that is related to sociodemographic development. Methods We used the published GBD 2013 data for age-specific mortality, years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) to calculate DALYs and HALE for 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2013 for 188 countries. We calculated HALE using the Sullivan method; 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) represent uncertainty in age-specific death rates and YLDs per person for each country, age, sex, and year. We estimated DALYs for 306 causes for each country as the sum of YLLs and YLDs; 95% UIs represent uncertainty in YLL and YLD rates. We quantified patterns of the epidemiological transition with a composite indicator of sociodemographic status, which we constructed from income per person, average years of schooling after age 15 years, and the total fertility rate and mean age of the population. We applied hierarchical regression to DALY rates by cause across countries to decompose variance related to the sociodemographic status variable, country, and time. Findings Worldwide, from 1990 to 2013, life expectancy at birth rose by 6·2 years (95% UI 5·6–6·6), from 65·3 years (65·0–65·6) in 1990 to 71·5 years (71·0–71·9) in 2013, HALE at birth rose by 5·4 years (4·9–5·8), from 56·9 years (54·5–59·1) to 62·3 years (59·7–64·8), total DALYs fell by 3·6% (0·3–7·4), and age-standardised DALY rates per 100 000 people fell by 26·7% (24·6–29·1). For communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, global DALY numbers, crude rates, and age-standardised rates have all declined between 1990 and 2013, whereas for non–communicable diseases, global DALYs have been increasing, DALY rates have remained nearly constant, and age-standardised DALY rates declined during the same period. From 2005 to 2013, the number of DALYs increased for most specific non-communicable diseases, including cardiovascular diseases and neoplasms, in addition to dengue, food-borne trematodes, and leishmaniasis; DALYs decreased for nearly all other causes. By 2013, the five leading causes of DALYs were ischaemic heart disease, lower respiratory infections, cerebrovascular disease, low back and neck pain, and road injuries. Sociodemographic status explained more than 50% of the variance between countries and over time for diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and other common infectious diseases; maternal disorders; neonatal disorders; nutritional deficiencies; other communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases; musculoskeletal disorders; and other non-communicable diseases. However, sociodemographic status explained less than 10% of the variance in DALY rates for cardiovascular diseases; chronic respiratory diseases; cirrhosis; diabetes, urogenital, blood, and endocrine diseases; unintentional injuries; and self-harm and interpersonal violence. Predictably, increased sociodemographic status was associated with a shift in burden from YLLs to YLDs, driven by declines in YLLs and increases in YLDs from musculoskeletal disorders, neurological disorders, and mental and substance use disorders. In most country-specific estimates, the increase in life expectancy was greater than that in HALE. Leading causes of DALYs are highly variable across countries. Interpretation Global health is improving. Population growth and ageing have driven up numbers of DALYs, but crude rates have remained relatively constant, showing that progress in health does not mean fewer demands on health systems. The notion of an epidemiological transition—in which increasing sociodemographic status brings structured change in disease burden—is useful, but there is tremendous variation in burden of disease that is not associated with sociodemographic status. This further underscores the need for country-specific assessments of DALYs and HALE to appropriately inform health policy decisions and attendant actions.

William James, Sciences of Mind, and Anti-imperial Discourse

In the past few decades, the humanities and social sciences have developed new methods of reorienting their conceptual frameworks in a “world without frontiers.” In this book, Bernadette M. Baker offers an innovative approach to rethinking sciences of mind as they formed at the turn of the twentieth century, via the concerns that have emerged at the turn of the twenty-first. The less-visited texts of Harvard philosopher and psychologist William James provide a window into contemporary debates over principles of toleration, anti-imperial discourse, and the nature of ethics. Baker revisits Jamesian approaches to the formation of scientific objects including the child mind, exceptional mental states, and the ghost to explore the possibilities and limits of social scientific thought dedicated to mind development and discipline formation around the construct of the West.

SIR Analysis and Interference Cancellation in Uplink OFDMA with Large Carrier Frequency/Timing Offsets

In uplink orthogonal frequency division multiple access (OFDMA), large timing offsets (TO) and/or carrier frequency offsets (CFO) of other users with respect to a desired user can cause significant multiuser interference (MUI). In this letter, we analytically characterize the degradation in the average output signal-to-interference ratio (SIR) due to the combined effect of both TOs as well as CFOs in uplink OFDMA. Specifically, we derive closed-form expressions for the average SIR at the DFT output in the presence of large CFOs and TOs. The analyticalexpressions derived for the signal and various interference terms at the DFT output are used to devise an interference cancelling receiver to mitigate the effect of CFO/TO-induced interferences.

Association of microRNA 17–92 cluster host gene (MIR17HG) polymorphisms with breast cancer

Breast cancer incidence and mortality rates are increasing despite our current knowledge on the disease. Ninety-five percent of breast cancer cases correspond to sporadic forms of the disease and are believed to involve an interaction between environmental and genetic determinants. The microRNA 17–92 cluster host gene (MIR17HG) has been shown to regulate expression of genes involved in breast cancer development and progression. Study of single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) located in this cluster gene could help provide a further understanding of its role in breast cancer. Therefore, this study investigated six SNPs in the MIR17HG using two independent Australian Caucasian case–control populations (GRC-BC and GU-CCQ BB populations) to determine association to breast cancer susceptibility. Genotyping was undertaken using chip-based matrix assisted laser desorption ionisation time-of-flight (MALDI-TOF) mass spectrometry (MS). We found significant association between rs4824505 and breast cancer at the allelic level in both study cohorts (GRC-BC p = 0.01 and GU-CCQ BB p = 0.03). Furthermore, haplotypic analysis of results from our combined population determined a significant association between rs4824505/rs7336610 and breast cancer susceptibility (p = 5 × 10−4). Our study is the first to show that the A allele of rs4824505 and the AC haplotype of rs4824505/rs7336610 are associated with risk of breast cancer development. However, definitive validation of this finding requires larger cohorts or populations in different ethnical backgrounds. Finally, functional studies of these SNPs could provide a deeper understanding of the role that MIR17HG plays in the pathophysiology of breast cancer.

Comparison of decision tree, support vector machines, and Bayesian network approaches for classification of falls in Parkinson’s disease

Being able to accurately predict the risk of falling is crucial in patients with Parkinson’s dis- ease (PD). This is due to the unfavorable effect of falls, which can lower the quality of life as well as directly impact on survival. Three methods considered for predicting falls are decision trees (DT), Bayesian networks (BN), and support vector machines (SVM). Data on a 1-year prospective study conducted at IHBI, Australia, for 51 people with PD are used. Data processing are conducted using rpart and e1071 packages in R for DT and SVM, con- secutively; and Bayes Server 5.5 for the BN. The results show that BN and SVM produce consistently higher accuracy over the 12 months evaluation time points (average sensitivity and specificity > 92%) than DT (average sensitivity 88%, average specificity 72%). DT is prone to imbalanced data so needs to adjust for the misclassification cost. However, DT provides a straightforward, interpretable result and thus is appealing for helping to identify important items related to falls and to generate fallers’ profiles.

Synthesis, Binding and Bioactivity of [gamma]-Methylene [gamma]-Lactam Ecdysone Receptor Ligands: Advantages of QSAR Models for Flexible Receptors

Nuclear hormone receptors, such as the ecdysone receptor, often display a large amount of induced fit to ligands. The size and shape of the binding pocket in the EcR subunit changes markedly on ligand binding, making modelling methods such as docking extremely challenging. It is, however, possible to generate excellent 3D QSAR models for a given type of ligand, suggesting that the receptor adopts a relatively restricted number of binding site configurations or [`]attractors'. We describe the synthesis, in vitro binding and selected in vivo toxicity data for [gamma]-methylene [gamma]-lactams, a new class of high-affinity ligands for ecdysone receptors from Bovicola ovis (Phthiraptera) and Lucilia cuprina (Diptera). The results of a 3D QSAR study of the binding of methylene lactams to recombinant ecdysone receptor protein suggest that this class of ligands is indeed recognized by a single conformation of the EcR binding pocket.

Portrait of Ralph and Joan Grahme with Ralph's sister Ilse Schuster nee Gottschalk and her husband James at restaurant "Old Vienna"; London, England.

Left to right: Ralph Grahme, Joan Grahme, Ilse Schuster nee Gottschalk, and James Schuster;