The Nature of Scientific Proof in the Age of Simulations. Is numerical mimicry a third way of establishing truth?

Is numerical mimicry a third way of establishing truth? Kevin Heng received his M.S. and Ph.D. in astrophysics from the Joint Institute for Laboratory Astrophysics (JILA) and the University of Colorado at Boulder. He joined the Institute for Advanced Study in Princeton from 2007 to 2010, first as a Member and later as the Frank & Peggy Taplin Member. From 2010 to 2012 he was a Zwicky Prize Fellow at ETH Z¨urich (the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology). In 2013, he joined the Center for Space and Habitability (CSH) at the University of Bern, Switzerland, as a tenure-track assistant professor, where he leads the Exoplanets and Exoclimes Group. He has worked on, and maintains, a broad range of interests in astrophysics: shocks, extrasolar asteroid belts, planet formation, fluid dynamics, brown dwarfs and exoplanets. He coordinates the Exoclimes Simulation Platform (ESP), an open-source set of theoretical tools designed for studying the basic physics and chemistry of exoplanetary atmospheres and climates (www.exoclime.org). He is involved in the CHEOPS (Characterizing Exoplanet Satellite) space telescope, a mission approved by the European Space Agency (ESA) and led by Switzerland. He spends a fair amount of time humbly learning the lessons gleaned from studying the Earth and Solar System planets, as related to him by atmospheric, climate and planetary scientists. He received a Sigma Xi Grant-in-Aid of Research in 2006

Long-bone fractures in persons with spinal cord injury

STUDY DESIGN Retrospective data analysis. OBJECTIVES To document fracture characteristics, management and related complications in individuals with traumatic spinal cord injury (SCI). SETTING Rehabilitation centre for SCI individuals. METHOD Patients' records were reviewed. Patients with traumatic SCI and extremity fractures that had occurred after SCI were included. Patient characteristics, fractured bone, fracture localisation, severity and management (operative/conservative), and fracture-related complications were extracted. RESULTS A total of 156 long-bone fractures in 107 SCI patients (34 women and 73 men) were identified. The majority of patients were paraplegics (77.6%) and classified as American Spinal Injury Association Impairment Scale A (86.0%). Only the lower extremities were affected, whereby the femur (60.9% of all fractures) was fractured more frequently than the lower leg (39.1%). A total of 70 patients (65.4%) had one fracture, whereas 37 patients (34.6%) had two or more fractures. Simple or extraarticular fractures were most common (75.0%). Overall, 130 (83.3%) fractures were managed operatively. Approximately half of the femur fractures (48.2%) were treated with locking compression plates. In the lower leg, fractures were mainly managed with external fixation (48.8%). Conservative fracture management was applied in 16.7% of the cases and consisted of braces or a well-padded soft cast. Fracture-associated complications were present in 13.5% of the cases but did not differ significantly between operative (13.1%) and conservative (15.4%) fracture management. CONCLUSION SCI was associated with simple or extraarticular fractures of the distal femur and the lower leg. Fractures were mainly managed operatively with a low complication rate.

Normal values for pancreatic stone protein in different age groups.

BACKGROUND Pancreatic stone protein (PSP) has been identified as a promising sepsis marker in adults, children and neonates. However, data on population-based reference values are lacking. This study aimed to establish age-specific reference values for PSP. METHODS PSP was determined using a specific ELISA. PSP serum concentrations were determined in 372 healthy subjects including 217 neonates, 94 infants and children up to 16 years, and 61 adults. The adjacent categories method was used to determine which age categories had significantly different PSP concentrations. RESULTS PSP circulating levels were not gender-dependent and ranged from 1.0 to 99.4 ng/ml with a median of 9.2 ng/ml. PSP increased significantly between the age categories, from a median of 2.6 ng/ml in very preterm newborns, to 6.3 ng/ml in term newborns, to 16.1 ng/ml in older children (p < 0.001). PSP levels were higher on postnatal day three compared to levels measured immediately post delivery (p < 0.001). Paired umbilical artery and umbilical vein samples were strongly correlated (p < 0.001). Simultaneously obtained capillary heel-prick versus venous samples showed a good level of agreement for PSP (Rho 0.89, bias 19 %). CONCLUSIONS This study provides age-specific normal values that may be used to define cut-offs for future trials on PSP. We demonstrate an age-dependent increase of PSP from birth to childhood.

Pelvic Fractures in Children Results from the German Pelvic Trauma Registry: A Cohort Study.

As pelvic fractures in children and adolescents are very rare, the surgical management is not well delineated nor are the postoperative complications. The aim of this study using the prospective data from German Pelvic Trauma Registry study was to evaluate the various treatment approaches compared to adults and delineated the differences in postoperative complications after pelvic injuries.Using the prospective pelvic trauma registry established by the German Society of Traumatology and the German Section of the Arbeitsgemeinschaft für Osteosynthesefragen (AO), International in 1991, patients with pelvic fractures over a 12-year time frame submitted by any 1 of the 23 member level I trauma centers were reviewed.We identified a total of 13,525 patients including pelvic fractures in 13,317 adults and 208 children aged ≤14 years and compared these 2 groups. The 2 groups' Injury Severitiy Score (ISS) did not differ statistically. Lethality in the pediatric group was 6.3%, not statistically different from the adults' 4.6%. In all, 18.3% of the pediatric pelvic fractures were treated surgically as compared to 22.7% in the adult group. No child suffered any thrombosis/embolism, acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), multiorgan failure (MOF), or neurologic deficit, nor was any septic MOF detected. The differences between adults and children were statistically significant in that the children suffered less frequently from thrombosis/embolism (P = 0.041) and ARDS and MOF (P = 0.006).This prospective multicenter study addressing patients with pelvic fractures reveals that the risk for a thrombosis/embolism, ARDS, and MOF is significant lower in pediatric patients than in adults. No statistical differences could be found in the ratios of operative therapy of the pelvic fractures in children compared to adults.

Impact of oral contraceptives on weight, body composition, and cardiovascular disease risk factors in women age 18--30 years participating in a 15-week exercise program

Objective. To assess differences in body weight, body composition, total cholesterol, blood pressure, and blood glucose between OC users and non-users age 18-30 y before and after a 15-week cardiovascular exercise program in Houston, TX from 2003 to 2007.^ Study Design. Secondary analysis of prospective data. ^ Study Subjects. 453 Non-Hispanic white (NHW), Hispanic, and African American (AA) women age 18-30 y with no previous live birth, a history of menstruating, no use of other hormonal contraceptives or medications, no menopause or hysterectomy, and no current pregnancies.^ Measurements. Demographic data, medication use, and menstrual history were assessed via self-administered questionnaires at baseline. Anthropometric and laboratory measures were taken at baseline and 15-weeks. ^ Data Analysis. Linear regression assessed the association between OC use and study variables at baseline, and the change in study variables from baseline to 15-weeks. Logistic regression assessed the association between OC use and CVD risk. Each analysis was also stratified by race/ethnicity. ^ Results. At baseline, OC users had higher total cholesterol (p<.0005) and were above cholesterol risk cut points for CVD (OR=4.3, 95% CI=2.4-7.7) compared to non-users. At baseline, OC use was also associated with higher diastolic blood pressure (p=.018) compared to non-users, primarily in non-Hispanic whites (p=.007). OC use was associated with lower blood glucose compared to non-users in Hispanics only (p=.008). OC use was associated with absolute change in diastolic blood pressure (p=.044) and total cholesterol (p=.003). There was evidence that OC use may affect individuals differently based on race/ethnicity for certain obesity and CVD risk factors.^ Conclusions. OC users and non-users responded similarly to a 15-week cardiovascular exercise program. Exceptions included a greater change in diastolic blood pressure and total cholesterol among NHW and Hispanic OC users compared to non-users after exercise intervention. At baseline, OC use was associated with diastolic blood pressure and was most strongly associated with increased levels of total cholesterol. OC users were at greater risk of having total cholesterol above CVD risk cut points than non-users.^

Effects of air pollution on asthma hospitalization rates in different age groups in metropolitan cities of Korea

Many studies have shown relationships between air pollution and the rate of hospital admissions for asthma. A few studies have controlled for age-specific effects by adding separate smoothing functions for each age group. However, it has not yet been reported whether air pollution effects are significantly different for different age groups. This lack of information is the motivation for this study, which tests the hypothesis that air pollution effects on asthmatic hospital admissions are significantly different by age groups. Each air pollutant's effect on asthmatic hospital admissions by age groups was estimated separately. In this study, daily time-series data for hospital admission rates from seven cities in Korea from June 1999 through 2003 were analyzed. The outcome variable, daily hospital admission rates for asthma, was related to five air pollutants which were used as the independent variables, namely particulate matter <10 micrometers (μm) in aerodynamic diameter (PM10), carbon monoxide (CO), ozone (O3), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and sulfur dioxide (SO2). Meteorological variables were considered as confounders. Admission data were divided into three age groups: children (<15 years of age), adults (ages 15-64), and elderly (≥ 65 years of age). The adult age group was considered to be the reference group for each city. In order to estimate age-specific air pollution effects, the analysis was separated into two stages. In the first stage, Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) with cubic spline for smoothing were applied to estimate the age-city-specific air pollution effects on asthmatic hospital admission rates by city and age group. In the second stage, the Bayesian Hierarchical Model with non-informative prior which has large variance was used to combine city-specific effects by age groups. The hypothesis test showed that the effects of PM10, CO and NO2 were significantly different by age groups. Assuming that the air pollution effect for adults is zero as a reference, age-specific air pollution effects were: -0.00154 (95% confidence interval(CI)= (-0.0030,-0.0001)) for children and 0.00126 (95% CI = (0.0006, 0.0019)) for the elderly for PM 10; -0.0195 (95% CI = (-0.0386,-0.0004)) for children for CO; and 0.00494 (95% CI = (0.0028, 0.0071)) for the elderly for NO2. Relative rates (RRs) were 1.008 (95% CI = (1.000-1.017)) in adults and 1.021 (95% CI = (1.012-1.030)) in the elderly for every 10 μg/m3 increase of PM10 , 1.019 (95% CI = (1.005-1.033)) in adults and 1.022 (95% CI = (1.012-1.033)) in the elderly for every 0.1 part per million (ppm) increase of CO; 1.006 (95%CI = (1.002-1.009)) and 1.019 (95%CI = (1.007-1.032)) in the elderly for every 1 part per billion (ppb) increase of NO2 and SO2, respectively. Asthma hospital admissions were significantly increased for PM10 and CO in adults, and for PM10, CO, NO2 and SO2 in the elderly.^

Crystal size variations in Eemian-age ice from the GRIP ice core, Central Greenland

Continuous measurements of ice crystal size have been carried out on an 80 m sequence between 2790 and 2870 m depth in the GRIP ice core from Central Greenland. The ice in this interval is at present considered to orginate from the Eemian interglacial period. The record reveals that the crystal size in ice older than 100,000 yr is highly dependent on climatic conditions at the time of snowfall. This dependence shows up as a strong correlation between ?18O values and crystal size throughout the Eemian, as well as a negative correlation between crystal size and several soluble and insoluble impurities. Although high-resolution impurity records are available from selected parts of the Eemian ice, the study is not conclusive on which impurities are most effective in slowing grain growth. It is shown that the normal grain-growth process, commonly observed in the upper few hundred metres of polar ice sheets, does not yield grain sizes compatible with observed ones at this depth in the ice sheet, even in those parts of the Eemian ice where impurity drag effects are not present. Polygonization of crystals within the ice sheet and the nucleation and rapid growth of new grains at relatively high temperatures in the lowest part probably play an important role in producing the observed grain-size variations. The relevance of possible flow disturbances of the GRIP Eemian climatic record for the results presented is discussed briefly.