The role of biotic interactions in shaping distributions and realised assemblages of species: implications for species distribution modelling.

Predicting which species will occur together in the future, and where, remains one of the greatest challenges in ecology, and requires a sound understanding of how the abiotic and biotic environments interact with dispersal processes and history across scales. Biotic interactions and their dynamics influence species' relationships to climate, and this also has important implications for predicting future distributions of species. It is already well accepted that biotic interactions shape species' spatial distributions at local spatial extents, but the role of these interactions beyond local extents (e.g. 10 km(2) to global extents) are usually dismissed as unimportant. In this review we consolidate evidence for how biotic interactions shape species distributions beyond local extents and review methods for integrating biotic interactions into species distribution modelling tools. Drawing upon evidence from contemporary and palaeoecological studies of individual species ranges, functional groups, and species richness patterns, we show that biotic interactions have clearly left their mark on species distributions and realised assemblages of species across all spatial extents. We demonstrate this with examples from within and across trophic groups. A range of species distribution modelling tools is available to quantify species environmental relationships and predict species occurrence, such as: (i) integrating pairwise dependencies, (ii) using integrative predictors, and (iii) hybridising species distribution models (SDMs) with dynamic models. These methods have typically only been applied to interacting pairs of species at a single time, require a priori ecological knowledge about which species interact, and due to data paucity must assume that biotic interactions are constant in space and time. To better inform the future development of these models across spatial scales, we call for accelerated collection of spatially and temporally explicit species data. Ideally, these data should be sampled to reflect variation in the underlying environment across large spatial extents, and at fine spatial resolution. Simplified ecosystems where there are relatively few interacting species and sometimes a wealth of existing ecosystem monitoring data (e.g. arctic, alpine or island habitats) offer settings where the development of modelling tools that account for biotic interactions may be less difficult than elsewhere.

Limits on the validity of infinite length assumptions for modelling shallow landslides

The infinite slope method is widely used as the geotechnical component of geomorphic and landscape evolution models. Its assumption that shallow landslides are infinitely long (in a downslope direction) is usually considered valid for natural landslides on the basis that they are generally long relative to their depth. However, this is rarely justified, because the critical length/depth (L/H) ratio below which edge effects become important is unknown. We establish this critical L/H ratio by benchmarking infinite slope stability predictions against finite element predictions for a set of synthetic two-dimensional slopes, assuming that the difference between the predictions is due to error in the infinite slope method. We test the infinite slope method for six different L/H ratios to find the critical ratio at which its predictions fall within 5% of those from the finite element method. We repeat these tests for 5000 synthetic slopes with a range of failure plane depths, pore water pressures, friction angles, soil cohesions, soil unit weights and slope angles characteristic of natural slopes. We find that: (1) infinite slope stability predictions are consistently too conservative for small L/H ratios; (2) the predictions always converge to within 5% of the finite element benchmarks by a L/H ratio of 25 (i.e. the infinite slope assumption is reasonable for landslides 25 times longer than they are deep); but (3) they can converge at much lower ratios depending on slope properties, particularly for low cohesion soils. The implication for catchment scale stability models is that the infinite length assumption is reasonable if their grid resolution is coarse (e.g. >25?m). However, it may also be valid even at much finer grid resolutions (e.g. 1?m), because spatial organization in the predicted pore water pressure field reduces the probability of short landslides and minimizes the risk that predicted landslides will have L/H ratios less than 25. Copyright (c) 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Westory Fire Agency, Independent Auditor's Reports, Financial Statement and Required Supplementary Information, Schedule of Findings, June 30, 2005

Other Audit Reports - 28E Organizations

Disruption of gene expression in hybrids of the fire ants Solenopsis invicta and Solenopsis richteri.

Transcriptome analysis is a powerful tool for unveiling the distribution and magnitude of genetic incompatibilities between hybridizing taxa. The nature of such incompatibilities is closely associated with the evolutionary histories of the parental species and may differ across tissues and between the sexes. In eusocial insects, the presence of castes that experience divergent selection regimes may result in additional distinct patterns of caste-specific hybrid incompatibilities. We analysed levels of expression of >14 000 genes in two life stages of each caste in the fire ants Solenopsis invicta and Solenopsis richteri and in their hybrids. We found strong contributions of both developmental stage and caste to gene expression patterns. In contrast, variability in expression was only weakly associated with taxonomic identity, with hybrid scores falling between those of the two parental species. Hybrid incompatibilities were surprisingly modest, with only 32 genes being mis-expressed, indicating low levels of disruption in gene regulation in hybrids; males and workers each mis-expressed at least seven times as many genes as queens. Interestingly, homologues of many of the mis-expressed genes have been implicated in behavioural variation in Drosophila melanogaster. General expression profiles of hybrids consistently were more similar to those of S. richteri than S. invicta, presumably because S. richteri trans-regulatory elements tend to be dominant and/or because there is an overall bias in the genetic composition of the hybrids towards S. richteri. Altogether, our results suggest that selection acting on each caste may contribute differently to interspecific divergence and speciation in this group of ants.

Bioclimatic constraints to Andean cat distribution: a modelling application for rare species

AimTo identify the bioclimatic niche of the endangered Andean cat (Leopardus jacobita), one of the rarest and least known felids in the world, by developing a species distribution model.LocationSouth America, High Andes and Patagonian steppe. Peru, Bolivia, Chile, Argentina.MethodsWe used 108 Andean cat records to build the models, and 27 to test them, applying the Maxent algorithm to sets of uncorrelated bioclimatic variables from global databases, including elevation. We based our biogeographical interpretations on the examination of the predicted geographic range, the modelled response curves and latitudinal variations in climatic variables associated with the locality data.ResultsSimple bioclimatic models for Andean cats were highly predictive with only 3-4 explanatory variables. The climatic niche of the species was defined by extreme diurnal variations in temperature, cold minimum and moderate maximum temperatures, and aridity, characteristic not only of the Andean highlands but also of the Patagonian steppe. Argentina had the highest representation of suitable climates, and Chile the lowest. The most favourable conditions were centrally located and spanned across international boundaries. Discontinuities in suitable climatic conditions coincided with three biogeographical barriers associated with climatic or topographic transitions.Main conclusionsSimple bioclimatic models can produce useful predictions of suitable climatic conditions for rare species, including major biogeographical constraints. In our study case, these constraints are also known to affect the distribution of other Andean species and the genetic structure of Andean cat populations. We recommend surveys of areas with suitable climates and no Andean cat records, including the corridor connecting two core populations. The inclusion of landscape variables at finer scales, crucially the distribution of Andean cat prey, would contribute to refine our predictions for conservation applications.

Modelling the effect of minor orthopaedic day surgery on patient mood at the early post-operative period: a prospective population-based cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: The effect of minor orthopaedic day surgery (MiODS) on patient's mood. METHODS: A prospective population-based cohort study of 148 consecutive patients with age above 18 and less than 65, an American Society of Anaesthesiology (ASA) score of 1, and the requirement of general anaesthesia (GA) were included. The Medical Outcomes Study - Short Form 36 (SF-36), Beck Anxiety Inventory (BAI) and Beck Depression Inventory (BDI) were used pre- and post-operatively. RESULTS: The mean physical component score of SF-36 before surgery was 45.3 (SD=+/-10.1) and 8 weeks following surgery was 44.9 (SD=+/-11.04) [n=148, p=0.51, 95% CI=(-1.03 to 1.52)]. For the measurement of the changes in mood using BDI, BAI and SF-36, latent construct modelling was employed to increase validity. The covariance between mood pre- and post-operatively (cov=69.44) corresponded to a correlation coefficient, r=0.88 indicating that patients suffering a greater number of mood symptoms before surgery continue to have a greater number of symptoms following surgery. When the latent mood constructs were permitted to have different means the model fitted well with chi(2) (df=1)=0.86 for which p=0.77, thus the null hypothesis that MiODS has no effect on patient mood was rejected. CONCLUSIONS: MiODS affects patient mood which deteriorates at 8 weeks post-operatively regardless of the pre-operative patient mood state. More importantly patients suffering a greater number of mood symptoms before MiODS continue to have a greater number of symptoms following surgery.

Audit report on the Westory Fire Agency for the year ended June 30, 2006.

Audit report on the Westory Fire Agency for the year ended June 30, 2006.

Expression of foraging and Gp-9 are associated with social organization in the fire ant Solenopsis invicta.

The aim of this study was to investigate levels of expression of two major genes, the odorant binding protein Gp-9 (general protein-9) and foraging, that have been shown to be associated with behavioural polymorphisms in ants. We analysed workers and young nonreproductive queens collected from nests of the monogyne (single reproductive queen per nest) and polygyne (multiple reproductive queens) social forms of Solenopsis invicta. In workers but not young queens, the level of foraging expression was significantly associated with social form and the task performed (ie localization in the nest or foraging area). The level of expression of Gp-9 was also associated with social form and worker localization. In addition there was a higher level of expression of the Gp-9(b) allele compared with the Gp-9(B) allele in the heterozygote workers and the young nonreproductive queens. Finally, in the polygyne colonies the level of expression of foraging was not significantly associated with the Gp-9 genotype for either workers or young nonreproductive queens, suggesting that both genes have independent non-epistatic effects on behaviour in S. invicta.

Special investigation of the Haverhill Volunteer Fire Department for the period January 1, 2003 through January 29, 2007

Special investigation of the Haverhill Volunteer Fire Department for the period January 1, 2003 through January 29, 2007

Audit report on the Westory Fire Agency for the year ended June 30, 2007

Audit report on the Westory Fire Agency for the year ended June 30, 2007