440 resultados para Extrapolation.
Resumo:
Models of the air-sea transfer velocity of gases may be either empirical or mechanistic. Extrapolations of empirical models to an unmeasured gas or to another water temperature can be erroneous if the basis of that extrapolation is flawed. This issue is readily demonstrated for the most well-known empirical gas transfer velocity models where the influence of bubble-mediated transfer, which can vary between gases, is not explicitly accounted for. Mechanistic models are hindered by an incomplete knowledge of the mechanisms of air-sea gas transfer. We describe a hybrid model that incorporates a simple mechanistic view—strictly enforcing a distinction between direct and bubble-mediated transfer—but also uses parameterizations based on data from eddy flux measurements of dimethyl sulphide (DMS) to calibrate the model together with dual tracer results to evaluate the model. This model underpins simple algorithms that can be easily applied within schemes to calculate local, regional, or global air-sea fluxes of gases.
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Body size is a key determinant of metabolic rate, but logistical constraints have led to a paucity of energetics measurements from large water-breathing animals. As a result, estimating energy requirements of large fish generally relies on extrapolation of metabolic rate from individuals of lower body mass using allometric relationships that are notoriously variable. Swim-tunnel respirometry is the ‘gold standard’ for measuring active metabolic rates in water-breathing animals, yet previous data are entirely derived from body masses <10 kg – at least one order of magnitude lower than the body masses of many top-order marine predators. Here, we describe the design and testing of a new method for measuring metabolic rates of large water-breathing animals: a c. 26 000 L seagoing ‘mega-flume’ swim-tunnel respirometer. We measured the swimming metabolic rate of a 2·1-m, 36-kg zebra shark Stegostoma fasciatum within this new mega-flume and compared the results to data we collected from other S. fasciatum (3·8–47·7 kg body mass) swimming in static respirometers and previously published measurements of active metabolic rate measurements from other shark species. The mega-flume performed well during initial tests, with intra- and interspecific comparisons suggesting accurate metabolic rate measurements can be obtained with this new tool. Inclusion of our data showed that the scaling exponent of active metabolic rate with mass for sharks ranging from 0·13 to 47·7 kg was 0·79; a similar value to previous estimates for resting metabolic rates in smaller fishes. We describe the operation and usefulness of this new method in the context of our current uncertainties surrounding energy requirements of large water-breathing animals. We also highlight the sensitivity of mass-extrapolated energetic estimates in large aquatic animals and discuss the consequences for predicting ecosystem impacts such as trophic cascades.
Resumo:
Body size is a key determinant of metabolic rate, but logistical constraints have led to a paucity of energetics measurements from large water-breathing animals. As a result, estimating energy requirements of large fish generally relies on extrapolation of metabolic rate from individuals of lower body mass using allometric relationships that are notoriously variable. Swim-tunnel respirometry is the ‘gold standard’ for measuring active metabolic rates in water-breathing animals, yet previous data are entirely derived from body masses <10 kg – at least one order of magnitude lower than the body masses of many top-order marine predators. Here, we describe the design and testing of a new method for measuring metabolic rates of large water-breathing animals: a c. 26 000 L seagoing ‘mega-flume’ swim-tunnel respirometer. We measured the swimming metabolic rate of a 2·1-m, 36-kg zebra shark Stegostoma fasciatum within this new mega-flume and compared the results to data we collected from other S. fasciatum (3·8–47·7 kg body mass) swimming in static respirometers and previously published measurements of active metabolic rate measurements from other shark species. The mega-flume performed well during initial tests, with intra- and interspecific comparisons suggesting accurate metabolic rate measurements can be obtained with this new tool. Inclusion of our data showed that the scaling exponent of active metabolic rate with mass for sharks ranging from 0·13 to 47·7 kg was 0·79; a similar value to previous estimates for resting metabolic rates in smaller fishes. We describe the operation and usefulness of this new method in the context of our current uncertainties surrounding energy requirements of large water-breathing animals. We also highlight the sensitivity of mass-extrapolated energetic estimates in large aquatic animals and discuss the consequences for predicting ecosystem impacts such as trophic cascades.
Resumo:
Les enfants d’âge préscolaire (≤ 5 ans) sont plus à risque de subir un traumatisme crânio-cérébral (TCC) que les enfants plus agés, et 90% de ces TCC sont de sévérité légère (TCCL). De nombreuses études publiées dans les deux dernières décennies démontrent que le TCCL pédiatrique peut engendrer des difficultés cognitives, comportementales et psychiatriques en phase aigüe qui, chez certains enfants, peuvent perdurer à long terme. Il existe une littérature florissante concernant l'impact du TCCL sur le fonctionnement social et sur la cognition sociale (les processus cognitifs qui sous-tendent la socialisation) chez les enfants d'âge scolaire et les adolescents. Or, seulement deux études ont examiné l'impact d'un TCCL à l'âge préscolaire sur le développement social et aucune étude ne s'est penchée sur les répercussions socio-cognitives d'un TCCL précoce (à l’âge préscolaire). L'objectif de la présente thèse était donc d'étudier les conséquences du TCCL en bas âge sur la cognition sociale. Pour ce faire, nous avons examiné un aspect de la cognition sociale qui est en plein essor à cet âge, soit la théorie de l'esprit (TE), qui réfère à la capacité de se mettre à la place d'autrui et de comprendre sa perspective. Le premier article avait pour but d'étudier deux sous-composantes de la TE, soit la compréhension des fausses croyances et le raisonnement des désirs et des émotions d'autrui, six mois post-TCCL. Les résultats indiquent que les enfants d'âge préscolaire (18 à 60 mois) qui subissent un TCCL ont une TE significativement moins bonne 6 mois post-TCCL comparativement à un groupe contrôle d'enfants n'ayant subi aucune blessure. Le deuxième article visait à éclaircir l'origine de la diminution de la TE suite à un TCCL précoce. Cet objectif découle du débat qui existe actuellement dans la littérature. En effet, plusieurs scientifiques sont d'avis que l'on peut conclure à un effet découlant de la blessure au cerveau seulement lorsque les enfants ayant subi un TCCL sont comparés à des enfants ayant subi une blessure n'impliquant pas la tête (p.ex., une blessure orthopédique). Cet argument est fondé sur des études qui démontrent qu'en général, les enfants qui sont plus susceptibles de subir une blessure, peu importe la nature de celle-ci, ont des caractéristiques cognitives pré-existantes (p.ex. impulsivité, difficultés attentionnelles). Il s'avère donc possible que les difficultés que nous croyons attribuables à la blessure cérébrale étaient présentes avant même que l'enfant ne subisse un TCCL. Dans cette deuxième étude, nous avons donc comparé les performances aux tâches de TE d'enfants ayant subi un TCCL à ceux d'enfants appartenant à deux groupes contrôles, soit des enfants n'ayant subi aucune blessure et à des pairs ayant subi une blessure orthopédique. De façon générale, les enfants ayant subi un TCCL ont obtenu des performances significativement plus faibles à la tâche évaluant le raisonnement des désirs et des émotions d'autrui, 6 mois post-blessure, comparativement aux deux groupes contrôles. Cette étude visait également à examiner l'évolution de la TE suite à un TCCL, soit de 6 mois à 18 mois post-blessure. Les résultats démontrent que les moindres performances sont maintenues 18 mois post-TCCL. Enfin, le troisième but de cette étude était d’investiguer s’il existe un lien en la performance aux tâches de TE et les habiletés sociales, telles qu’évaluées à l’aide d’un questionnaire rempli par le parent. De façon intéressante, la TE est associée aux habiletés sociales seulement chez les enfants ayant subi un TCCL. Dans l'ensemble, ces deux études mettent en évidence des répercussions spécifiques du TCCL précoce sur la TE qui persistent à long terme, et une TE amoindrie seraient associée à de moins bonnes habiletés sociales. Cette thèse démontre qu'un TCCL en bas âge peut faire obstacle au développement sociocognitif, par le biais de répercussions sur la TE. Ces résultats appuient la théorie selon laquelle le jeune cerveau immature présente une vulnérabilité accrue aux blessures cérébrales. Enfin, ces études mettent en lumière la nécessité d'étudier ce groupe d'âge, plutôt que d'extrapoler à partir de résultats obtenus avec des enfants plus âgés, puisque les enjeux développementaux s'avèrent différents, et que ceux-ci ont potentiellement une influence majeure sur les répercussions d'une blessure cérébrale sur le fonctionnement sociocognitif.
Resumo:
Near-surface air temperature is an important determinant of the surface energy balance of glaciers and is often represented by a constant linear temperature gradients (TGs) in models. Spatiotemporal variability in 2 m air temperature was measured across the debris-covered Miage Glacier, Italy, over an 89 d period during the 2014 ablation season using a network of 19 stations. Air temperature was found to be strongly dependent upon elevation for most stations, even under varying meteorological conditions and at different times of day, and its spatial variability was well explained by a locally derived mean linear TG (MG–TG) of −0.0088°C m−1. However, local temperature depressions occurred over areas of very thin or patchy debris cover. The MG–TG, together with other air TGs, extrapolated from both on- and off-glacier sites, were applied in a distributed energy-balance model. Compared with piecewise air temperature extrapolation from all on-glacier stations, modelled ablation, using the MG–TG, increased by <1%, increasing to >4% using the environmental ‘lapse rate’. Ice melt under thick debris was relatively insensitive to air temperature, while the effects of different temperature extrapolation methods were strongest at high elevation sites of thin and patchy debris cover.
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Land-use change and intensification threaten bee populations worldwide, imperilling pollination services. Global models are needed to better characterise, project, and mitigate bees' responses to these human impacts. The available data are, however, geographically and taxonomically unrepresentative; most data are from North America and Western Europe, overrepresenting bumblebees and raising concerns that model results may not be generalizable to other regions and taxa. To assess whether the geographic and taxonomic biases of data could undermine effectiveness of models for conservation policy, we have collated from the published literature a global dataset of bee diversity at sites facing land-use change and intensification, and assess whether bee responses to these pressures vary across 11 regions (Western, Northern, Eastern and Southern Europe; North, Central and South America; Australia and New Zealand; South East Asia; Middle and Southern Africa) and between bumblebees and other bees. Our analyses highlight strong regionally-based responses of total abundance, species richness and Simpson's diversity to land use, caused by variation in the sensitivity of species and potentially in the nature of threats. These results suggest that global extrapolation of models based on geographically and taxonomically restricted data may underestimate the true uncertainty, increasing the risk of ecological surprises.
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Philip Pullman, author of the His Dark Materials trilogy, has acquired an impressive critical reputation and acquired a favored role in British culture as a social commentator. This essay attempts to link the pleasures associated with the trilogy with the politics inscribed in them, and consider both in the context of Pullman’s role in the civil society. The essay suggests that The Northern Lights offers pleasures in fantastical and metaphysical possibilities, and social confederacies that potentially offset the affective privations of neoliberalism. These possibilities are set in the context of recent theories of the “enterprise society.” The essay draws attention to a number of discontinuities that unfold as the trilogy progresses, and suggests that these undermine the possibilities inherent in the first novel. These disconti - nuities throw the role of fantasy and alternative universes into question, and reveal the limitations of Pullman’s fiction. The essay considers the limit and scope of Pullman’s political vision, both as a function of his fiction and his public engagement with social issues, and suggests that he exemplifies Raymond Williams’s concept of “bourgeois dissent” in which political critique and a continuing investment in traditional institutions and class hierarchy can be mutually reinforcing.
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In the area of linguistics and language teaching, science fiction is useful in very many ways. An obvious way is that it sets up many complex and rich worlds and outlines the sorts of adjustments that language must make in those contexts. It thus draws a strong link between language and context; it shows how the construction of reality is largely a matter of language; and it speculates on where we are linguistically heading. It is a useful mirror on language development. Extrapolating the dialects of the future has been the province of science fiction in the last century. Though few SF writers are professional linguists, their method in general tends to take a holistic view of form, meaning and social context. Characters in science fiction are not individuals but are 'everyman' tokens, and the language they use symbolises the culture they inhabit. Linguistic extrapolation in science fiction thus treats language both as the technology of communication and as an index of social change. In this paper, I argue that predicting the language of the future, though extremely difficult, is possible. I call this new discipline chronolinguistics, and I set out the draft principles and parameters of a chronolinguistics, based on the future languages speculated by John Brunner, Russell Hoban, William Gibson, Greg Bear, Neal Stephenson and Iain M.Banks.
Resumo:
Advanced oxidation processes (AOPs) are modern methods using reactive hydroxyl radicals for the mineralization of organic pollutants into simple inorganic compounds, such as CO2 and H2O. Among AOPs electrochemical oxidation (EO) is a method suitable for coloured and turbid wastewaters. The degradation of pollutants occurs on electrocatalytic electrodes. The majority of electrodes contain in their structure either expensive materials (diamond and Pt-group metals) or are toxic for the environment compounds (Sb or Pb). One of the main disadvantages of electrochemical method is the polarization and contamination of electrodes due to the deposition of reaction products on their surface, which results in diminishing of the process efficiency. Ultrasound combined with the electrochemical degradation process eliminates electrode contamination because of the continuous mechanical cleaning effect produced by the formation and collapse of acoustic cavitation bubbles near to the electrode surface. Moreover, high frequency ultrasound generates hydroxyl radicals at water sonolysis. Ultrasound-assisted EO is a non-selective method for oxidation of different organic compounds with high degradation efficiencies. The aim of this research was to develop novel sustainable and cost-effective electrodes working as electrocatalysts and test their activity in electrocatalytic oxidation of organic compounds such as dyes and organic acids. Moreover, the goal of the research was to enhance the efficiency of electrocatalytic degradation processes by assisting it with ultrasound in order to eliminate the main drawbacks of a single electrochemical oxidation such as electrodes polarization and passivation. Novel Ti/Ta2O5-SnO2 electrodes were developed and found to be electrocatalytically active towards water (with 5% Ta content, 10 oxide film layers) and organic compounds oxidation (with 7.5% Ta content, 8 oxide film layers) and therefore these electrodes can be applicable in both environmental and energy fields. The synergetic effect of combined electrolysis and sonication was shown while conducting sonoelectrochemical (EO/US) degradation of methylene blue (MB) and formic acid (FA). Complete degradation of MB and FA was achieved after 45 and 120 min of EO/US process respectively in neutral media. Mineralization efficiency of FA over 95% was obtained after 2 h of degradation using high frequency ultrasound (381, 863, 1176 kHz) combined with 9.1 mA/cm2 current density. EO/US degradation of MB provided over 75% mineralization in 8 h. High degradation kinetic rates and mineralization efficiencies of model pollutants obtained in EO/US experiments provide the preconditions for further extrapolation of this treatment method to pilot scale studies with industrial wastewaters.
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Magnetically-induced forces on the inertial masses on-board LISA Path finder are expected to be one of the dominant contributions to the mission noise budget, accounting for up to 40%. The origin of this disturbance is the coupling of the residual magnetization and susceptibility of the test masses with the environmental magnetic field. In order to fully understand this important part of the noise model, a set of coils and magnetometers are integrated as a part of the diagnostics subsystem. During operations a sequence of magnetic excitations will be applied to precisely determine the coupling of the magnetic environment to the test mass displacement using the on-board magnetometers. Since no direct measurement of the magnetic field in the test mass position will be available, an extrapolation of the magnetic measurements to the test mass position will be carried out as a part of the data analysis activities. In this paper we show the first results on the magnetic experiments during an end-to-end LISA Path finder simulation, and we describe the methods under development to map the magnetic field on-board.
Resumo:
Internally-grooved refrigeration tubes maximize tube-side evaporative heat transfer rates and have been identified as a most promising technology for integration into compact cold plates. Unfortunately, the absence of phenomenological insights and physical models hinders the extrapolation of grooved-tube performance to new applications. The success of regime-based heat transfer correlations for smooth tubes has motivated the current effort to explore the relationship between flow regimes and enhanced heat transfer in internally-grooved tubes. In this thesis, a detailed analysis of smooth and internally-grooved tube data reveals that performance improvement in internally-grooved tubes at low-to-intermediate mass flux is a result of early flow regime transition. Based on this analysis, a new flow regime map and corresponding heat transfer coefficient correlation, which account for the increased wetted angle, turbulence, and Gregorig effects unique to internally-grooved tubes, were developed. A two-phase test facility was designed and fabricated to validate the newly-developed flow regime map and regime-based heat transfer coefficient correlation. As part of this setup, a non-intrusive optical technique was developed to study the dynamic nature of two-phase flows. It was found that different flow regimes result in unique temporally varying film thickness profiles. Using these profiles, quantitative flow regime identification measures were developed, including the ability to explain and quantify the more subtle transitions that exist between dominant flow regimes. Flow regime data, based on the newly-developed method, and heat transfer coefficient data, using infrared thermography, were collected for two-phase HFE-7100 flow in horizontal 2.62mm - 8.84mm diameter smooth and internally-grooved tubes with mass fluxes from 25-300 kg/m²s, heat fluxes from 4-56 kW/m², and vapor qualities approaching 1. In total, over 6500 combined data points for the adiabatic and diabatic smooth and internally-grooved tubes were acquired. Based on results from the experiments and a reinterpretation of data from independent researchers, it was established that heat transfer enhancement in internally-grooved tubes at low-to-intermediate mass flux is primarily due to early flow regime transition to Annular flow. The regime-based heat transfer coefficient outperformed empirical correlations from the literature, with mean and absolute deviations of 4.0% and 32% for the full range of data collected.
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Ocean wind retrievals from satellite sensors are typically performed for the standard level of 10 m. This restricts their full exploitation for wind energy planning, which requires wind information at much higher levels where wind turbines operate. A new method is presented for the vertical extrapolation of satellite-based wind maps. Winds near the sea surface are obtained from satellite data and used together with an adaptation of the Monin–Obukhov similarity theory to estimate the wind speed at higher levels. The thermal stratification of the atmosphere is taken into account through a long-term stability correction that is based on numerical weather prediction (NWP) model outputs. The effect of the long-term stability correction on the wind profile is significant. The method is applied to Envisat Advanced Synthetic Aperture Radar scenes acquired over the south Baltic Sea. This leads to maps of the long-term stability correction and wind speed at a height of 100 m with a spatial resolution of 0.02°. Calculations of the corresponding wind power density and Weibull parameters are shown. Comparisons with mast observations reveal that NWP model outputs can correct successfully for long-term stability effects and also, to some extent, for the limited number of satellite samples. The satellite-based and NWP-simulated wind profiles are almost equally accurate with respect to those from the mast. However, the satellite-based maps have a higher spatial resolution, which is particularly important in nearshore areas where most offshore wind farms are built.