Technical and economic resources management in smart grids using heuristic optimization methods

Intensive use of Distributed Generation (DG) represents a change in the paradigm of power systems operation making small-scale energy generation and storage decision making relevant for the whole system. This paradigm led to the concept of smart grid for which an efficient management, both in technical and economic terms, should be assured. This paper presents a new approach to solve the economic dispatch in smart grids. The proposed methodology for resource management involves two stages. The first one considers fuzzy set theory to define the natural resources range forecast as well as the load forecast. The second stage uses heuristic optimization to determine the economic dispatch considering the generation forecast, storage management and demand response

Planeamento espacial marinho das áreas marinhas protegidas: o caso de estudo da ára protegida de gestão de recursos: Caloura - ilhéu de Vila Franca do Campo

Tese de Doutoramento, Ciências do Mar (Ecologia Marinha), 26 de Novembro de 2013, Universidade dos Açores.

A New Approach to Monitoring Touristic and Cultural Routes: The Challenge of Development and Use of Indicators-Based Systems

The present paper results of an ongoing research project were it is expected to develop an information system to monitoring a cultural-touristic route. The route to monitor is the Romanesque Route of Tâmega. This Route is composed of 58 monuments located in the region of Tâmega in the North of Portugal. Due to the particular location of this region, that is between coastal zone, but not yet in the inland, it has a weak political influence, and it is reflected in the low levels of development at several levels, observed. The Romanesque Route was implemented in a part of this region in 1998, and enlarged to the all-region in 2010. In order to evaluate the socio-ecomonic impact of this route in the region a research project is being developed. The main goal of this paper is to open a discussion on the elements that must be taken into consideration to evaluate the economic and social impact of a touristic cultural route within a region and this one in particular.

Economic burden of expected epidemiological changes in diseases related to tobacco, Mexico

OBJECTIVE: To determine health care costs and economic burden of epidemiological changes in diseases related to tobacco consumption. METHODS: A time-series analysis in Mexico (1994-2005) was carried out on seven health interventions: chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases, lung cancer with and without surgical intervention, asthma in smokers and non-smokers, full treatment course with nicotine gum, and full treatment course with nicotine patch. According with Box-Jenkins methodology, probabilistic models were developed to forecast the expected changes in the epidemiologic profile and the expected changes in health care services required for selected interventions. Health care costs were estimated following the instrumentation methods and validated with consensus technique. RESULTS: A comparison of the economic impact in 2006 vs. 2008 showed 20-90% increase in expected cases depending on the disease (p<0.05), and 25-93% increase in financial requirements (p<0.01). The study data suggest that changes in the demand for health services for patients with respiratory diseases related to tobacco consumption will continue showing an increasing trend. CONCLUSIONS: In economic terms, the growing number of cases expected during the study period indicates a process of internal competition and adds an element of intrinsic competition in the management of preventive and curative interventions. The study results support the assumption that if preventive programs remain unchanged, the increasing demands for curative health care may cause great financial and management challenges to the health care system of middle-income countries like Mexico.

Avaliação da performance empresarial: o economic value added (EVA®) e a sua relação com o valor da empresa

Mestrado em Contabilidade e Gestão das Instituições Financeiras

O impacto da implementação do Basel III no capital dos bancos portugueses

Este trabalho é uma análise dos efeitos da implementação das últimas recomendações do Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) também conhecidas como o Basel III de 2010 que deverão ser faseadamente implementadas desde 1 de Janeiro de 2013 até 1 de Janeiro de 2019, no capital próprio dos bancos Portugueses. Neste trabalho assume-se que os ativos pesados pelo risco de 2012 mantêm-se constantes e o capital terá de ser aumentado segundo as recomendações ano após ano até ao fim de 2018. Com esta análise, pretende-se entender o nível de robustez do capital próprio dos bancos Portugueses e se os mesmos têm capital e reservas suficientes para satisfazer as recomendações de capital mínimo sugeridas pelo BCBS ou caso contrário, se necessitarão de novas injeções de capital ou terão de reduzir a sua atividade económica. O Basel III ainda não foi implementado em Portugal, pois a União Europeia está no processo de desenvolvimento e implementação do Credit Requirement Directive IV (CRD IV) que é uma recomendação que todos os bancos centrais dos países da zona Euro deverão impor aos respetivos bancos. Esta diretiva da União Europeia é baseada totalmente nas recomendações do Basel III e deverá ser implementada em 2014 ou nos anos seguintes. Até agora, os bancos Portugueses seguem um sistema com base no aviso 6/2010 do Banco de Portugal que recomenda o cálculo dos rácios core tier 1, tier 1 e tier 2 usando o método notações internas (IRB) de avaliação da exposição do banco aos riscos de crédito, operacional, etc. e onde os ativos ponderados pelo risco são calculados como 12,5 vezes o valor dos requisitos totais de fundos calculados pelo banco. Este método é baseado nas recomendações do Basel II que serão substituídas pelo Basel III. Dado que um dos principais motivos para a crise económica e financeira que assolou o mundo em 2007 foi a acumulação de alavancagem excessiva e gradual erosão da qualidade da base do capital próprio dos bancos, é importante analisar a posição dos bancos Portugueses, que embora não sejam muito grandes a nível global, controlam a economia do país. Espera-se que com a implementação das recomendações do Basel III não haja no futuro uma repetição dos choques sistémicos de 2007. Os resultados deste estudo usando o método padrão recomendado pelo BCBS mostram que de catorze bancos Portugueses incluídos neste estudo, apenas seis (BES, Montepio, Finantia, BIG, Invest e BIC) conseguem enquadrar nas recomendações mínimas do Basel III até 1-1- 2019 e alguns outros estão marginalmente abaixo dos rácios mínimos (CGD, Itaú e Crédito Agrícola).

Economic, environmental and mixed objective functions in non-linear process optimization using simulated annealing and tabu search

Screening of topologies developed by hierarchical heuristic procedures can be carried out by comparing their optimal performance. In this work we will be exploiting mono-objective process optimization using two algorithms, simulated annealing and tabu search, and four different objective functions: two of the net present value type, one of them including environmental costs and two of the global potential impact type. The hydrodealkylation of toluene to produce benzene was used as case study, considering five topologies with different complexities mainly obtained by including or not liquid recycling and heat integration. The performance of the algorithms together with the objective functions was observed, analyzed and discussed from various perspectives: average deviation of results for each algorithm, capacity for producing high purity product, screening of topologies, objective functions robustness in screening of topologies, trade-offs between economic and environmental type objective functions and variability of optimum solutions.

Food consumption, physical activity and socio-economic status related to BMI, waist circumference and waist-to-height ratio in adolescents

Objective: To examine the association between obesity and food group intakes, physical activity and socio-economic status in adolescents. Design: A cross-sectional study was carried out in 2008. Cole’s cut-off points were used to categorize BMI. Abdominal obesity was defined by a waist circumference at or above the 90th percentile, as well as a waist-to-height ratio at or above 0?500. Diet was evaluated using an FFQ, and the food group consumption was categorized using sex-specific tertiles of each food group amount. Physical activity was assessed via a self-report questionnaire. Socio-economic status was assessed referring to parental education and employment status. Data were analysed separately for girls and boys and the associations among food consumption, physical activity, socio-economic status and BMI, waist circumference and waist-to-height ratio were evaluated using logistic regression analysis, adjusting the results for potential confounders. Setting: Public schools in the Azorean Archipelago, Portugal. Subjects: Adolescents (n 1209) aged 15–18 years. Results: After adjustment, in boys, higher intake of ready-to-eat cereals was a negative predictor while vegetables were a positive predictor of overweight/ obesity and abdominal obesity. Active boys had lower odds of abdominal obesity compared with inactive boys. Boys whose mother showed a low education level had higher odds of abdominal obesity compared with boys whose mother presented a high education level. Concerning girls, higher intake of sweets and pastries was a negative predictor of overweight/obesity and abdominal obesity. Girls in tertile 2 of milk intake had lower odds of abdominal obesity than those in tertile 1. Girls whose father had no relationship with employment displayed higher odds of abdominal obesity compared with girls whose father had high employment status. Conclusions: We have found that different measures of obesity have distinct associations with food group intakes, physical activity and socio-economic status.

Modelling adhesive joints with cohesive zone models: effect of the cohesive law shape of the adhesive layer

Adhesively-bonded joints are extensively used in several fields of engineering. Cohesive Zone Models (CZM) have been used for the strength prediction of adhesive joints, as an add-in to Finite Element (FE) analyses that allows simulation of damage growth, by consideration of energetic principles. A useful feature of CZM is that different shapes can be developed for the cohesive laws, depending on the nature of the material or interface to be simulated, allowing an accurate strength prediction. This work studies the influence of the CZM shape (triangular, exponential or trapezoidal) used to model a thin adhesive layer in single-lap adhesive joints, for an estimation of its influence on the strength prediction under different material conditions. By performing this study, guidelines are provided on the possibility to use a CZM shape that may not be the most suited for a particular adhesive, but that may be more straightforward to use/implement and have less convergence problems (e.g. triangular shaped CZM), thus attaining the solution faster. The overall results showed that joints bonded with ductile adhesives are highly influenced by the CZM shape, and that the trapezoidal shape fits best the experimental data. Moreover, the smaller is the overlap length (LO), the greater is the influence of the CZM shape. On the other hand, the influence of the CZM shape can be neglected when using brittle adhesives, without compromising too much the accuracy of the strength predictions.

Technical and economic assessment of energy from Tidal Currents

The present work aims to study the feasibility of deploying a farm of sea current turbines for electricity generation in Portugal. An approach to the tides, which are they, how they are formed, its prediction, is held. It is also conducted a study about the energy of sea currents and it is presented some technology about ocean currents too. A model of tidal height and velocity of the currents it is also developed. The energy produced by a hypothetical park, built in Sines (Portugal), is calculated and afterwards, an economical assessment is performed for two possible scenarios and a sensitivity analysis of NVP (Net Present Value) and LCOE (Levelized Cost of Energy) is figured. The conclusions about the feasibility of the projects are also presented. Despite being desired due to its predictability, this energy source is not yet economically viable as it is in an initial state of development. To push investment in this technology a feed-in tariff of, at least €200/MWh, should be considered.

Technical and economic assessment of energy from Tidal Currents

The present work aims to study the feasibility of deploying a farm of sea current turbines for electricity generation in Portugal. An approach to the tides, which are they, how they are formed, its prediction, is held. It is also conducted a study about the energy of sea currents and it is presented some technology about ocean currents too. A model of tidal height and velocity of the currents it is also developed. The energy produced by a hypothetical park, built in Sines (Portugal), is calculated and afterwards, an economical assessment is performed for two possible scenarios and a sensitivity analysis of NVP (Net Present Value) and LCOE (Levelized Cost of Energy) is figured. The conclusions about the feasibility of the projects are also presented. Despite being desired due to its predictability, this energy source is not yet economically viable as it is in an initial state of development. To push investment in this technology a feed-in tariff of, at least €200/MWh, should be considered.

Services innovation and economic performance: An analysis at the firm

In this paper we estimate a model linking innovation effort and economic performance, along the lines of the Mairesse and Mohnen (2003) model. We examine this relationship in the context of services sectors instead of Research and Development intensive manufacturing sectors. Much effort has already been made to explore the innovation-performance relationship for manufacturing sectors but it is still much understudied for services, particularly for Portugal. In this paper we aim to take a step in fulfilling this gap. We use new firm level data for ten services sectors from the Second Community Innovation Survey of Portugal, to estimate the model.

Determinants of the exclusive breastfeeding abandonment: psychosocial factors

OBJECTIVE To assess the determinants of exclusive breastfeeding abandonment. METHODS Longitudinal study based on a birth cohort in Viçosa, MG, Southeastern Brazil. In 2011/2012, 168 new mothers accessing the public health network were followed. Three interviews, at 30, 60, and 120 days postpartum, with the new mothers were conducted. Exclusive breastfeeding abandonment was analyzed in the first, second, and fourth months after childbirth. The Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale was applied to identify depressive symptoms in the first and second meetings, with a score of ≥ 12 considered as the cutoff point. Socioeconomic, demographic, and obstetric variables were investigated, along with emotional conditions and the new mothers’ social network during pregnancy and the postpartum period. RESULTS The prevalence of exclusive breastfeeding abandonment at 30, 60, and 120 days postpartum was 53.6% (n = 90), 47.6% (n = 80), and 69.6% (n = 117), respectively, and its incidence in the fourth month compared with the first was 48.7%. Depressive symptoms and traumatic delivery were associated with exclusive breastfeeding abandonment in the second month after childbirth. In the fourth month, the following variables were significant: lower maternal education levels, lack of homeownership, returning to work, not receiving guidance on breastfeeding in the postpartum period, mother’s negative reaction to the news of pregnancy, and not receiving assistance from their partners for infant care. CONCLUSIONS Psychosocial and sociodemographic factors were strong predictors of early exclusive breastfeeding abandonment. Therefore, it is necessary to identify and provide early treatment to nursing mothers with depressive symptoms, decreasing the associated morbidity and promoting greater duration of exclusive breastfeeding. Support from health professionals, as well as that received at home and at work, can assist in this process.

Economic analysis of surgical treatment of hip fracture in older adults

OBJECTIVE To analyze the incremental cost-utility ratio for the surgical treatment of hip fracture in older patients.METHODS This was a retrospective cohort study of a systematic sample of patients who underwent surgery for hip fracture at a central hospital of a macro-region in the state of Minas Gerais, Southeastern Brazil between January 1, 2009 and December 31, 2011. A decision tree creation was analyzed considering the direct medical costs. The study followed the healthcare provider’s perspective and had a one-year time horizon. Effectiveness was measured by the time elapsed between trauma and surgery after dividing the patients into early and late surgery groups. The utility was obtained in a cross-sectional and indirect manner using the EuroQOL 5 Dimensions generic questionnaire transformed into cardinal numbers using the national regulations established by the Center for the Development and Regional Planning of the State of Minas Gerais. The sample included 110 patients, 27 of whom were allocated in the early surgery group and 83 in the late surgery group. The groups were stratified by age, gender, type of fracture, type of surgery, and anesthetic risk.RESULTS The direct medical cost presented a statistically significant increase among patients in the late surgery group (p < 0.005), mainly because of ward costs (p < 0.001). In-hospital mortality was higher in the late surgery group (7.4% versus 16.9%). The decision tree demonstrated the dominance of the early surgery strategy over the late surgery strategy: R$9,854.34 (USD4,387.17) versus R$26,754.56 (USD11,911.03) per quality-adjusted life year. The sensitivity test with extreme values proved the robustness of the results.CONCLUSIONS After controlling for confounding variables, the strategy of early surgery for hip fracture in the older adults was proven to be dominant, because it presented a lower cost and better results than late surgery.

Identifying economic periods and crisis with the multidimensional scaling

This paper applied MDS and Fourier transform to analyze different periods of the business cycle. With such purpose, four important stock market indexes (Dow Jones, Nasdaq, NYSE, S&P500) were studied over time. The analysis under the lens of the Fourier transform showed that the indexes have characteristics similar to those of fractional noise. By the other side, the analysis under the MDS lens identified patterns in the stock markets specific to each economic expansion period. Although the identification of patterns characteristic to each expansion period is interesting to practitioners (even if only in a posteriori fashion), further research should explore the meaning of such regularities and target to find a method to estimate future crisis.