Absolute risk of breast cancer for Australian women with a family history

Background: The purpose of the present paper was to estimate the absolute risk of breast cancer over the remainder of a lifetime in Australian women with different categories of family history. Methods: Age-specific breast cancer incidence rates were adjusted for screening effects, and rates in those with no family history were estimated using the attributable fraction (AF). Relative risks from a published meta-analysis were applied to obtain incidence rates for different categories of family history, and age-specific incidence was converted to cumulative risk of breast cancer. The risk estimates were based upon Australian population statistics and published relative risks. Breast cancer incidence was from New South Wales women for 1996. The AF was calculated using prevalence of a family history of breast cancer from data on Queensland women. The cumulative absolute risk of breast cancer was calculated from decade and mid-decade ages to age 79 years, not adjusted for competing causes of death. Results: Lifetime risk is approximately 8.6% (1 in 12) for the general population and 7.8% (1 in 13) for those without a family history. Women with one relative affected have lifetime risks of 1 in 6-8 and those with two relatives affected have lifetime risks of 1 in 4-6. The cumulative residual lifetime risk decreases with advancing age; by age 60 years all groups with only one relative affected have well above a 90% probability of not developing breast cancer to age 79 years. Conclusions: These Australian risk statistics are useful for public information and in the clinical setting. Risks given here apply to women with average breast cancer risk from other risk factors.

Modelling life history strategies with capture-recapture data: Evolutionary demography of the water skink Eulamprus tympanum

Matrix population models, elasticity analysis and loop analysis can potentially provide powerful techniques for the analysis of life histories. Data from a capture-recapture study on a population of southern highland water skinks (Eulamprus tympanum) were used to construct a matrix population model. Errors in elasticities were calculated by using the parametric bootstrap technique. Elasticity and loop analyses were then conducted to identify the life history stages most important to fitness. The same techniques were used to investigate the relative importance of fast versus slow growth, and rapid versus delayed reproduction. Mature water skinks were long-lived, but there was high immature mortality. The most sensitive life history stage was the subadult stage. It is suggested that life history evolution in E. tympanum may be strongly affected by predation, particularly by birds. Because our population declined over the study, slow growth and delayed reproduction were the optimal life history strategies over this period. Although the techniques of evolutionary demography provide a powerful approach for the analysis of life histories, there are formidable logistical obstacles in gathering enough high-quality data for robust estimates of the critical parameters.

Relative motions of Africa, Iberia and Europe during Alpine orogeny

A revised kinematic model for the motions of Africa and Iberia relative to Europe since the Middle Jurassic is presented in order to provide boundary conditions for Alpine-Mediterranean reconstructions. These motions were calculated using up-to-date kinematic data predominantly based on magnetic isochrons in the Atlantic Ocean and published by various authors during the last 15 years. It is shown that convergence of Africa with respect to Europe commenced during the Cretaceous Normal Superchron (CNS), between chrons MO and 34 (120-83 Ma). This motion was subjected to fluctuations in convergence rates characterised by two periods of relatively rapid convergence (during Late Cretaceous and Eocene-Oligocene times) that alternated with periods of slower convergence (during the Paleocene and since the Early Miocene). Distinct changes in plate kinematics are recognised in the motion of Iberia with respect to Europe, indicated by: (1) a Late Jurassic-Early Cretaceous left-lateral strike-slip motion; (2) Late Cretaceous convergence; (3) Paleocene quiescence; (4) a short period of right-lateral strike-slip motion; and (5) final Eocene-Oligocene convergence. Based on these results, it is speculated that a collisional episode in the Alpine orogeny at ca. 65 Ma resulted in a dramatic decrease in the relative plate motions and that a slower motion since the Early Miocene promoted extension in the Mediterranean back-arc basins. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Sodium channel alpha 1-subunit mutations in severe myoclonic epilepsy of infancy and infantile spasms

Background: Mutations in SCN1A, the gene encoding the alpha1 subunit of the sodium channel, have been found in severe myoclonic epilepsy of infancy (SMEI) and generalized epilepsy with febrile seizures plus (GEFS(+)). Mutations in SMEI include missense, nonsense, and frameshift mutations more commonly arising de novo in affected patients. This finding is difficult to reconcile with the family history of GEFS(+) in a significant proportion of patients with SMEI Infantile spasms (IS), or West syndrome, is a severe epileptic encephalopathy that is usually symptomatic. In some cases, no etiology is found and there is a family history of epilepsy. Method: The authors screened SCN1A in 24 patients with SMEI and 23 with IS. Results: Mutations were found in 8 of 24 (33%) SMEI patients, a frequency much lower than initial reports from Europe and Japan. One mutation near the carboxy terminus was identified in an IS patient. A family history of seizures was found in 17 of 24 patients with SMEI. Conclusions: The rate of SCN1A mutations in this cohort of SMEI patients suggests that other factors may be important in SMEI. Less severe mutations associated with GEFS(+) could interact with other loci to cause SMEI in cases with a family history of GEFS(+). This study extends the phenotypic heterogeneity of mutations in SCN1A to include IS.

Towards a History didactics definition

This paper aims to define history didactics along the lines of the current German literature, which conceives it to be closer to history than to education. Associated to the word Geschichtsdidaktik, this definition is opposed to the concepts of history didactics as the art of teaching - Lehrkunst - history or as a collection of methods used both in the teaching of history and in the teaching of other school subjects - Unterrichtsmethoden. In opposition to these two definitions, this paper discusses German, French and Brazilian literatures to propose a conception of history didactics as a subarea of history, once it does not encompass only history teaching, but all history elaborations without a scientific form - nicht- wissenschaftsformigen Geschichtsverarbeitungen.

History of vegetation and habitat change in the Austral-Asian region

Over 1000 marine and terrestrial pollen diagrams and Some hundreds of vertebrate faunal sequences have been studied in the Austral-Asian region bisected by the PEPII transect, from the Russian arctic extending south through east Asia, Indochina, southern Asia, insular Southeast Asia (Sunda), Melanesia, Australasia (Sahul) and the western south Pacific. The majority of these records are Holocene but sufficient data exist to allow the reconstruction of the changing biomes over at least the past 200,000 years. The PEPII transect is free of the effects of large northern ice caps yet exhibits vegetational change in glacial cycles of a similar scale to North America. Major processes that can be discerned are the response of tropical forests in both lowlands and uplands to glacial cycles, the expansion of humid vegetation at the Pleistocene-Holocene transition and the change in faunal and vegetational controls as humans occupy the region. There is evidence for major changes in the intensity of monsoon and El Nino-Southern oscillation variability both on glacial-interglacial and longer time scales with much of the region experiencing a long-term trend towards more variable and/or drier climatic conditions. Temperature variation is most marked in high latitudes and high altitudes with precipitation providing the major climate control in lower latitude, lowland areas. At least some boundary shifts may be the response of vegetation to changing CO2 levels in the atmosphere. Numerous questions of detail remain, however, and current resolution is too coarse to examine the degree of synchroneity of millennial scale change along the transect. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd and INQUA. All rights reserved.

The Development of Science Education Research in Brazil and Contributions from the History and Philosophy of Science

Over the last 50 years a new research area, science education research, has arisen and undergone singular development worldwide. In the specific case of Brazil, research in science education first appeared systematically 40 years ago, as a consequence of an overall renovation in the field of science education. This evolution was also related to the political events taking place in the country. We will use the theoretical work of Rene Kaes on the development of groups and institutions as a basis for our discussion of the most important aspects that have helped the area of science education research develop into an institution and kept it operating as such. The growth of this area of research can be divided into three phases: The first was related to its beginning and early configurations; the second consisted of a process of consolidation of this institution; and the third consists of more recent developments, characterised by a multiplicity of research lines and corresponding challenges to be faced. In particular, we will analyse the special contributions to this study gleaned from the field known as the history and philosophy of science.