Will Arctic sea ice thickness initialization improve seasonal forecast skill?

Arctic sea ice thickness is thought to be an important predictor of Arctic sea ice extent. However, coupled seasonal forecast systems do not generally use sea ice thickness observations in their initialization and are therefore missing a potentially important source of additional skill. To investigate how large this source is, a set of ensemble potential predictability experiments with a global climate model, initialized with and without knowledge of the sea ice thickness initial state, have been run. These experiments show that accurate knowledge of the sea ice thickness field is crucially important for sea ice concentration and extent forecasts up to 8 months ahead, especially in summer. Perturbing sea ice thickness also has a significant impact on the forecast error in Arctic 2 m temperature a few months ahead. These results suggest that advancing capabilities to observe and assimilate sea ice thickness into coupled forecast systems could significantly increase skill.

A single-column model ensemble approach applied to the TWP-ICE experiment

Single-column models (SCM) are useful test beds for investigating the parameterization schemes of numerical weather prediction and climate models. The usefulness of SCM simulations are limited, however, by the accuracy of the best estimate large-scale observations prescribed. Errors estimating the observations will result in uncertainty in modeled simulations. One method to address the modeled uncertainty is to simulate an ensemble where the ensemble members span observational uncertainty. This study first derives an ensemble of large-scale data for the Tropical Warm Pool International Cloud Experiment (TWP-ICE) based on an estimate of a possible source of error in the best estimate product. These data are then used to carry out simulations with 11 SCM and two cloud-resolving models (CRM). Best estimate simulations are also performed. All models show that moisture-related variables are close to observations and there are limited differences between the best estimate and ensemble mean values. The models, however, show different sensitivities to changes in the forcing particularly when weakly forced. The ensemble simulations highlight important differences in the surface evaporation term of the moisture budget between the SCM and CRM. Differences are also apparent between the models in the ensemble mean vertical structure of cloud variables, while for each model, cloud properties are relatively insensitive to forcing. The ensemble is further used to investigate cloud variables and precipitation and identifies differences between CRM and SCM particularly for relationships involving ice. This study highlights the additional analysis that can be performed using ensemble simulations and hence enables a more complete model investigation compared to using the more traditional single best estimate simulation only.

Aspects of designing and evaluating seasonal-to-interannual Arctic sea-ice prediction systems

Using lessons from idealised predictability experiments, we discuss some issues and perspectives on the design of operational seasonal to inter-annual Arctic sea-ice prediction systems. We first review the opportunities to use a hierarchy of different types of experiment to learn about the predictability of Arctic climate. We also examine key issues for ensemble system design, such as: measuring skill, the role of ensemble size and generation of ensemble members. When assessing the potential skill of a set of prediction experiments, using more than one metric is essential as different choices can significantly alter conclusions about the presence or lack of skill. We find that increasing both the number of hindcasts and ensemble size is important for reliably assessing the correlation and expected error in forecasts. For other metrics, such as dispersion, increasing ensemble size is most important. Probabilistic measures of skill can also provide useful information about the reliability of forecasts. In addition, various methods for generating the different ensemble members are tested. The range of techniques can produce surprisingly different ensemble spread characteristics. The lessons learnt should help inform the design of future operational prediction systems.

Validation of a priori CME arrival predictions made using real-time heliospheric imager observations

Between December 2010 and March 2013, volunteers for the Solar Stormwatch (SSW) Citizen Science project have identified and analyzed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in the near real-time Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory Heliospheric Imager observations, in order to make “Fearless Forecasts” of CME arrival times and speeds at Earth. Of the 60 predictions of Earth-directed CMEs, 20 resulted in an identifiable Interplanetary CME (ICME) at Earth within 1.5–6 days, with an average error in predicted transit time of 22 h, and average transit time of 82.3 h. The average error in predicting arrival speed is 151 km s−1, with an average arrival speed of 425km s−1. In the same time period, there were 44 CMEs for which there are no corresponding SSW predictions, and there were 600 days on which there was neither a CME predicted nor observed. A number of metrics show that the SSW predictions do have useful forecast skill; however, there is still much room for improvement. We investigate potential improvements by using SSW inputs in three models of ICME propagation: two of constant acceleration and one of aerodynamic drag. We find that taking account of interplanetary acceleration can improve the average errors of transit time to 19 h and arrival speed to 77 km s−1.

Individual and organisational leadership: the shared approach

Purpose - this paper focuses on reducing the margin for leadership error in meeting strategic aims by forming a more robust approach to developing a broader and more reliable set of leadership skills to provide a greater likelihood of strategic alignment between corporate and individual need, increasing both of their respective shelve lives.

Rossby wave propagation on potential vorticity fronts with finite width

The horizontal gradient of potential vorticity (PV) across the tropopause typically declines with lead time in global numerical weather forecasts and tends towards a steady value dependent on model resolution. This paper examines how spreading the tropopause PV contrast over a broader frontal zone affects the propagation of Rossby waves. The approach taken is to analyse Rossby waves on a PV front of finite width in a simple single-layer model. The dispersion relation for linear Rossby waves on a PV front of infinitesimal width is well known; here an approximate correction is derived for the case of a finite width front, valid in the limit that the front is narrow compared to the zonal wavelength. Broadening the front causes a decrease in both the jet speed and the ability of waves to propagate upstream. The contribution of these changes to Rossby wave phase speeds cancel at leading order. At second order the decrease in jet speed dominates, meaning phase speeds are slower on broader PV fronts. This asymptotic phase speed result is shown to hold for a wide class of single-layer dynamics with a varying range of PV inversion operators. The phase speed dependence on frontal width is verified by numerical simulations and also shown to be robust at finite wave amplitude, and estimates are made for the error in Rossby wave propagation speeds due to the PV gradient error present in numerical weather forecast models.

The numbers of sample design for evaluation of the soil fertility

The determination of the amount of sample units that will compose the sample express the optimization of the workforce, and reduce errors inherent in the report of recommendation and evaluation of soil fertility. This study aimed to determine in three systems use and soil management, the numbers of units samples design, needed to form the composed sample, for evaluation of soil fertility. It was concluded that the number of sample units needed to compose the composed sample to determination the attributes of organic matter, pH, P, K, Ca, Mg, Al and H+Al and base saturation of soil vary by use and soil management and error acceptable to the mean estimate. For the same depth of collected, increasing the number of sample units, reduced the percentage error in estimating the average, allowing the recommendation of 14, 14 and 11 sample in management with native vegetation, pasture cultivation and corn, respectively, for a error 20% on the mean estimate.

An improved finite element space for discontinuous pressures

We consider incompressible Stokes flow with an internal interface at which the pressure is discontinuous, as happens for example in problems involving surface tension. We assume that the mesh does not follow the interface, which makes classical interpolation spaces to yield suboptimal convergence rates (typically, the interpolation error in the L(2)(Omega)-norm is of order h(1/2)). We propose a modification of the P(1)-conforming space that accommodates discontinuities at the interface without introducing additional degrees of freedom or modifying the sparsity pattern of the linear system. The unknowns are the pressure values at the vertices of the mesh and the basis functions are computed locally at each element, so that the implementation of the proposed space into existing codes is straightforward. With this modification, numerical tests show that the interpolation order improves to O(h(3/2)). The new pressure space is implemented for the stable P(1)(+)/P(1) mini-element discretization, and for the stabilized equal-order P(1)/P(1) discretization. Assessment is carried out for Poiseuille flow with a forcing surface and for a static bubble. In all cases the proposed pressure space leads to improved convergence orders and to more accurate results than the standard P(1) space. In addition, two Navier-Stokes simulations with moving interfaces (Rayleigh-Taylor instability and merging bubbles) are reported to show that the proposed space is robust enough to carry out realistic simulations. (c) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Utvärdering av kvalité och dess behov inom förprovtryck

It always has been a need for the abiltiy to create color proofs. When an error occurs late in the production process, itis allways complicated and difficult to correct the error. In this project, digital proofs been made and discussions havebeen held with several people in the printing industry, in order to examine how well excisting digital proofs, meet thedemand of the market. And how close the digital proofs can come to the actual printsheat from the press. The study hasbeen shown that the one thing that has had the most influence on the outcome for the quality of a digital proof, is theprintshop operator’s knowledge about color management and proofing systems. Many advertising agencies in the graphicindustry think rasterised proofs are not necessesary and expensive. Therefor they prefer a cheaper alternative, whichdoesn’t show colors as well as the rasterised proof, but well enough to be content with it. There are a good awarenessconcerning lack of communication between printshop, reproduction and advertising agency. Advertising agencies thinkthat printshop rarely listen to what they have to say, while the printshop think that the advertising agency doesn’t understandwhat they are trying to tell them. The outcome of the printed proofs in this study can’t be representive for howgood digital proofs are conducted in regular basis in the industry. The divergence between the print press sheat and thedigital proof that was made was bigger than expected. This shows that implementation of ICC profiles in a color managementflow, not alone is the answer to making perfect digital proofs. There are so many other issues that has to be examined,like color management software, measure tools and correct color management module. In order to make a perfectproof, you have to look at the whole picture. In the end, the human eye finally has the last word on wheather theproof is good or not.

Likelihood prediction for generalized linear mixed models under covariate uncertainty

This paper presents the techniques of likelihood prediction for the generalized linear mixed models. Methods of likelihood prediction is explained through a series of examples; from a classical one to more complicated ones. The examples show, in simple cases, that the likelihood prediction (LP) coincides with already known best frequentist practice such as the best linear unbiased predictor. The paper outlines a way to deal with the covariate uncertainty while producing predictive inference. Using a Poisson error-in-variable generalized linear model, it has been shown that in complicated cases LP produces better results than already know methods.

The meta-object facility typed

The Object Managment Group’s Meta-Object Facility (MOF) is a semiformal approach to writing models and metamodels (models of models). The MOF was developed to enable systematic model/metamodel interchange and integration. The approach is problematic, unless metamodels are correctly specified: an error in a metamodel specification will propagate throughout instantiating models and final model implementations. An important open question is how to develop provably correct metamodels. This paper outlines a solution to the question, in which the MOF metamodelling approach is formalized within constructive type theory.

Avaliação do erro das coordenadas de localização estereotáctica guiada por tomografia computadorizada do encéfalo

São analisados 106 pacientes submetidos a localização estereotáctica. Os procedimentos variaram de biópsias cerebrais, orientação de craniotomias, colocação de cateter em cavidade tumoral, drenagem de hematoma intracerebral e drenagem de abscesso cerebral. As orientações de craniotomias foram para MAVs, tumores e processos inflamatórios, em 21 pacientes. As biópsias cerebrais estereotácticas para diagnóstico anatomopatológico apresentaram um índice de positividade de 87,50 % com complicações em 1,20 %, em 82 casos. São analisadas estatisticamente as variáveis como: idade, sexo, procedimento realizado, diagnóstico anatomopatológico e volume das lesões. É discutida a imprecisão na aquisição e cálculo das coordenadas estereotácticas com a TC do encéfalo e verificada a precisão do método estereotomográfico com a utilização de um phanton. O maior erro das coordenadas foi de 6,8 mm.

Modelagem da perda esperada: uma alternativa para tratar o efeito da correlação entre a PD e LGD

Com a relevância que o mercado de crédito vem ganhando na economia o presente trabalho se propôs a fazer uma revisão conceitual do risco de crédito. Tendo a perda esperada como o principal componente do risco de crédito, o trabalho se aprofundou nesse tema propondo uma maneira nova para o cálculo da mesma. Da maneira que ela é modelada usualmente pressupoem que os parâmetros de PD e LGD são independentes. Alguns autores questionam essa pressuposição e que, se essa dependência não for levada em conta os cálculos de perda esperada e o capital que deveria ser alocado estarão incorretos. Uma alternativa para tratar a correlação é modelar os dois componentes conjuntamente, ao comparar os resultados do modelo usual com o modelo conjunto conclui-se que o erro da estimativa de perda esperada do modelo conjunto foi menor. Não se pode afirmar que o menor erro na estimativa de perda se deve a correlação entre a PD e LGD, porém ao modelar os parâmetros conjuntamente, retira-se essa forte pressuposição.

Estudo da formulação de pré-misturas secas para a cimentação de poços em terra

An economical solution for cementing oil wells is the use of pre-prepared dry mixtures containing cement and additives. The mixtures may be formulated, prepared and transported to the well where is added water to be pumped.Using this method, becomes dispensable to prepare the cement mixes containing additives in the cementing operation, reducing the possibility of error. In this way, the aim of this work is to study formulations of cement slurries containing solid additives for primary cementing of oil wells onshore for typical depths of 400, 800 and 1,200 meters. The formulations are comprised of Special Class Portland cement, mineral additions and solids chemical additives.The formulated mixtures have density of 1.67 g / cm ³ (14.0 lb / gal). Their optimization were made through the analysis of the rheological parameters, fluid loss results, free water, thickening time, stability test and mechanical properties.The results showed that mixtures are in conformity the specifications for cementing oil wells onshore studied depths

Dimensionamento de amostras para monitoramento do ácaro da leprose Brevipalpus phoenicis (Geijskes, 1939) em citros

O controle do ácaro Brevipalpus phoenicis (Geijskes, 1939), transmissor do vírus da leprose, deve ser realizado quando sua população atinge o nível de ação, obtido pelo monitoramento de sua população, por meio de amostragens. Objetivou-se determinar o tamanho da amostra aceitável para estimar a população do ácaro, para posterior tomada de decisão. O experimento foi realizado na Fazenda Cambuhy, Matão - SP, no ano agrícola 2003-2004. Escolheu-se ao acaso um talhão da variedade Valência, com oito anos de idade, plantada no espaçamento 7x3,5m, com 2.480 plantas. Nesse talhão, foram inspecionados 1; 2; 3; 5; 10 e 100% das plantas, o que corresponde a 25; 50; 74; 124; 248 e 2.480 plantas, respectivamente, em caminhamento no sentido das linhas de plantio. Foram amostrados 3 frutos ou, na ausência destes, eram analisados ramos. de acordo com os resultados obtidos, observa-se que a porcentagem de erro na estimativa da média para a porcentagem de frutos com presença de ácaros, quando se amostra apenas 1% das plantas (25 plantas), é de 50%, ou seja, para uma infestação de 10%, a variação da porcentagem de frutos infestados estaria entre 5 e 15%, levando o produtor a subestimar ou a superestimar o nível de infestação, aumentando os gastos com pulverizações desnecessárias ou um controle ineficiente do ácaro. Para que o erro na amostragem fique dentro da situação aceitável, de 20 a 30% (em média 25%) de erro, deveriam ser amostradas 105 plantas. Na porcentagem de frutos com mais de 10 ácaros, verifica-se que, para a situação aceitável (20 a 30%), devem ser inspecionadas 540 plantas.