Assimilation of Geosat Altimeter Data for the Agulhas Current Using the Ensemble Kalman Filter with a Quasigeostrophic Model

The ring-shedding process in the Agulhas Current is studied using the ensemble Kalman filter to assimilate geosat altimeter data into a two-layer quasigeostrophic ocean model. The properties of the ensemble Kalman filter are further explored with focus on the analysis scheme and the use of gridded data. The Geosat data consist of 10 fields of gridded sea-surface height anomalies separated 10 days apart that are added to a climatic mean field. This corresponds to a huge number of data values, and a data reduction scheme must be applied to increase the efficiency of the analysis procedure. Further, it is illustrated how one can resolve the rank problem occurring when a too large dataset or a small ensemble is used.

Evaluation of the Plant–Craig stochastic convection scheme (v2.0) in the ensemble forecasting system MOGREPS-R (24 km) based on the Unified Model (v7.3)

The Plant–Craig stochastic convection parameterization (version 2.0) is implemented in the Met Office Regional Ensemble Prediction System (MOGREPS-R) and is assessed in comparison with the standard convection scheme with a simple stochastic scheme only, from random parameter variation. A set of 34 ensemble forecasts, each with 24 members, is considered, over the month of July 2009. Deterministic and probabilistic measures of the precipitation forecasts are assessed. The Plant–Craig parameterization is found to improve probabilistic forecast measures, particularly the results for lower precipitation thresholds. The impact on deterministic forecasts at the grid scale is neutral, although the Plant–Craig scheme does deliver improvements when forecasts are made over larger areas. The improvements found are greater in conditions of relatively weak synoptic forcing, for which convective precipitation is likely to be less predictable.

A review on the combination of binary classifiers in multiclass problems

Several real problems involve the classification of data into categories or classes. Given a data set containing data whose classes are known, Machine Learning algorithms can be employed for the induction of a classifier able to predict the class of new data from the same domain, performing the desired discrimination. Some learning techniques are originally conceived for the solution of problems with only two classes, also named binary classification problems. However, many problems require the discrimination of examples into more than two categories or classes. This paper presents a survey on the main strategies for the generalization of binary classifiers to problems with more than two classes, known as multiclass classification problems. The focus is on strategies that decompose the original multiclass problem into multiple binary subtasks, whose outputs are combined to obtain the final prediction.

Deformed Gaussian orthogonal ensemble and the statistical fluctuations in the spectra of the quartic oscillator

The nearest-neighbor spacing distributions proposed by four models, namely, the Berry-Robnik, Caurier-Grammaticos-Ramani, Lenz-Haake, and the deformed Gaussian orthogonal ensemble, as well as the ansatz by Brody, are applied to the transition between chaos and order that occurs in the isotropic quartic oscillator. The advantages and disadvantages of these five descriptions are discussed. In addition, the results of a simple extension of the expression for the Dyson-Mehta statistic Δ3 are compared with those of a more popular one, usually associated with the Berry-Robnik formalism. ©1999 The American Physical Society.

Optimization of neural classifiers based on bayesian decision boundaries and idle neurons pruning

In this article we describe a feature extraction algorithm for pattern classification based on Bayesian Decision Boundaries and Pruning techniques. The proposed method is capable of optimizing MLP neural classifiers by retaining those neurons in the hidden layer that realy contribute to correct classification. Also in this article we proposed a method which defines a plausible number of neurons in the hidden layer based on the stem-and-leaf graphics of training samples. Experimental investigation reveals the efficiency of the proposed method. © 2002 IEEE.

Analysis of ensemble models in the medium term hydropower scheduling

The medium term hydropower scheduling (MTHS) problem involves an attempt to determine, for each time stage of the planning period, the amount of generation at each hydro plant which will maximize the expected future benefits throughout the planning period, while respecting plant operational constraints. Besides, it is important to emphasize that this decision-making has been done based mainly on inflow earliness knowledge. To perform the forecast of a determinate basin, it is possible to use some intelligent computational approaches. In this paper one considers the Dynamic Programming (DP) with the inflows given by their average values, thus turning the problem into a deterministic one which the solution can be obtained by deterministic DP (DDP). The performance of the DDP technique in the MTHS problem was assessed by simulation using the ensemble prediction models. Features and sensitivities of these models are discussed. © 2012 IEEE.

Thermodynamics of Ising model with infinite-range interactions by generalized canonical ensemble

In this work we present the idea of how generalized ensembles can be used to simplify the operational study of non-additive physical systems. As alternative of the usual methods of direct integration or mean-field theory, we show how the solution of the Ising model with infinite-range interactions is obtained by using a generalized canonical ensemble. We describe how the thermodynamical properties of this model in the presence of an external magnetic field are founded by simple parametric equations. Without impairing the usual interpretation, we obtain an identical critical behaviour as observed in traditional approaches.

Using Machine Learning Classifiers to Assist Healthcare-Related Decisions: Classification of Electronic Patient Records

Surveillance Levels (SLs) are categories for medical patients (used in Brazil) that represent different types of medical recommendations. SLs are defined according to risk factors and the medical and developmental history of patients. Each SL is associated with specific educational and clinical measures. The objective of the present paper was to verify computer-aided, automatic assignment of SLs. The present paper proposes a computer-aided approach for automatic recommendation of SLs. The approach is based on the classification of information from patient electronic records. For this purpose, a software architecture composed of three layers was developed. The architecture is formed by a classification layer that includes a linguistic module and machine learning classification modules. The classification layer allows for the use of different classification methods, including the use of preprocessed, normalized language data drawn from the linguistic module. We report the verification and validation of the software architecture in a Brazilian pediatric healthcare institution. The results indicate that selection of attributes can have a great effect on the performance of the system. Nonetheless, our automatic recommendation of surveillance level can still benefit from improvements in processing procedures when the linguistic module is applied prior to classification. Results from our efforts can be applied to different types of medical systems. The results of systems supported by the framework presented in this paper may be used by healthcare and governmental institutions to improve healthcare services in terms of establishing preventive measures and alerting authorities about the possibility of an epidemic.

Classification of suppressor additives based on synergistic and antagonistic ensemble effects

Three fundamental types of suppressor additives for copper electroplating could be identified by means of potential Transient measurements. These suppressor additives differ in their synergistic and antagonistic interplay with anions that are chemisorbed on the metallic copper surface during electrodeposition. In addition these suppressor chemistries reveal different barrier properties with respect to cupric ions and plating additives (Cl, SPS). While the type-I suppressor selectively forms efficient barriers for copper inter-diffusion on chloride-terminated electrode surfaces we identified a type-II suppressor that interacts non-selectively with any kind of anions chemisorbed on copper (chloride, sulfate, sulfonate). Type-I suppressors are vital for the superconformal copper growth mode in Damascene processing and show an antagonistic interaction with SPS (Bis-Sodium-Sulfopropyl-Disulfide) which involves the deactivation of this suppressor chemistry. This suppressor deactivation is rationalized in terms of compositional changes in the layer of the chemisorbed anions due to the competition of chloride and MPS (Mercaptopropane Sulfonic Acid) for adsorption sites on the metallic copper surface. MPS is the product of the dissociative SPS adsorption within the preexisting chloride matrix on the copper surface. The non-selectivity in the adsorption behavior of the type-II suppressor is rationalized in terms of anion/cation pairing effects of the poly-cationic suppressor and the anion-modified copper substrate. Atomic-scale insights into the competitive Cl/MPS adsorption are gained from in situ STM (Scanning Tunneling Microscopy) using single crystalline copper surfaces as model substrates. Type-III suppressors are a third class of suppressors. In case of type-land type-II suppressor chemistries the resulting steady-state deposition conditions are completely independent on the particular succession of additive adsorption. In contrast to that a strong dependence of the suppressing capabilities on the sequence of additive adsorption ("first comes, first serves" principle) is observed for the type-IIIsuppressor. This behavior:is explained by a suppressor barrier that impedes not only the copper inter-diffusion but also the transport of other additives (e.g. SPS) to the copper surface. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Potential drought stress in a Swiss mountain catchment-Ensemble forecasting of high mountain soil moisture reveals a drastic decrease, despite major uncertainties

Climate change is expected to profoundly influence the hydrosphere of mountain ecosystems. The focus of current process-based research is centered on the reaction of glaciers and runoff to climate change; spatially explicit impacts on soil moisture remain widely neglected. We spatio-temporally analyzed the impact of the climate on soil moisture in a mesoscale high mountain catchment to facilitate the development of mitigation and adaptation strategies at the level of vegetation patterns. Two regional climate models were downscaled using three different approaches (statistical downscaling, delta change, and direct use) to drive a hydrological model (WaSiM-ETH) for reference and scenario period (1960–1990 and 2070–2100), resulting in an ensemble forecast of six members. For all ensembles members we found large changes in temperature, resulting in decreasing snow and ice storage and earlier runoff, but only small changes in evapotranspiration. The occurrence of downscaled dry spells was found to fluctuate greatly, causing soil moisture depletion and drought stress potential to show high variability in both space and time. In general, the choice of the downscaling approach had a stronger influence on the results than the applied regional climate model. All of the results indicate that summer soil moisture decreases, which leads to more frequent declines below a critical soil moisture level and an advanced evapotranspiration deficit. Forests up to an elevation of 1800 m a.s.l. are likely to be threatened the most, while alpine areas and most pastures remain nearly unaffected. Nevertheless, the ensemble variability was found to be extremely high and should be interpreted as a bandwidth of possible future drought stress situations.

Recognition of activities of daily living in healthy subjects using two ad-hoc classifiers

Activities of daily living (ADL) are important for quality of life. They are indicators of cognitive health status and their assessment is a measure of independence in everyday living. ADL are difficult to reliably assess using questionnaires due to self-reporting biases. Various sensor-based (wearable, in-home, intrusive) systems have been proposed to successfully recognize and quantify ADL without relying on self-reporting. New classifiers required to classify sensor data are on the rise. We propose two ad-hoc classifiers that are based only on non-intrusive sensor data. METHODS: A wireless sensor system with ten sensor boxes was installed in the home of ten healthy subjects to collect ambient data over a duration of 20 consecutive days. A handheld protocol device and a paper logbook were also provided to the subjects. Eight ADL were selected for recognition. We developed two ad-hoc ADL classifiers, namely the rule based forward chaining inference engine (RBI) classifier and the circadian activity rhythm (CAR) classifier. The RBI classifier finds facts in data and matches them against the rules. The CAR classifier works within a framework to automatically rate routine activities to detect regular repeating patterns of behavior. For comparison, two state-of-the-art [Naïves Bayes (NB), Random Forest (RF)] classifiers have also been used. All classifiers were validated with the collected data sets for classification and recognition of the eight specific ADL. RESULTS: Out of a total of 1,373 ADL, the RBI classifier correctly determined 1,264, while missing 109 and the CAR determined 1,305 while missing 68 ADL. The RBI and CAR classifier recognized activities with an average sensitivity of 91.27 and 94.36%, respectively, outperforming both RF and NB. CONCLUSIONS: The performance of the classifiers varied significantly and shows that the classifier plays an important role in ADL recognition. Both RBI and CAR classifier performed better than existing state-of-the-art (NB, RF) on all ADL. Of the two ad-hoc classifiers, the CAR classifier was more accurate and is likely to be better suited than the RBI for distinguishing and recognizing complex ADL.

Evaluation of Three State-of-the-Art Classifiers for Recognition of Activities of Daily Living from Smart Home Ambient Data

Smart homes for the aging population have recently started attracting the attention of the research community. The "health state" of smart homes is comprised of many different levels; starting with the physical health of citizens, it also includes longer-term health norms and outcomes, as well as the arena of positive behavior changes. One of the problems of interest is to monitor the activities of daily living (ADL) of the elderly, aiming at their protection and well-being. For this purpose, we installed passive infrared (PIR) sensors to detect motion in a specific area inside a smart apartment and used them to collect a set of ADL. In a novel approach, we describe a technology that allows the ground truth collected in one smart home to train activity recognition systems for other smart homes. We asked the users to label all instances of all ADL only once and subsequently applied data mining techniques to cluster in-home sensor firings. Each cluster would therefore represent the instances of the same activity. Once the clusters were associated to their corresponding activities, our system was able to recognize future activities. To improve the activity recognition accuracy, our system preprocessed raw sensor data by identifying overlapping activities. To evaluate the recognition performance from a 200-day dataset, we implemented three different active learning classification algorithms and compared their performance: naive Bayesian (NB), support vector machine (SVM) and random forest (RF). Based on our results, the RF classifier recognized activities with an average specificity of 96.53%, a sensitivity of 68.49%, a precision of 74.41% and an F-measure of 71.33%, outperforming both the NB and SVM classifiers. Further clustering markedly improved the results of the RF classifier. An activity recognition system based on PIR sensors in conjunction with a clustering classification approach was able to detect ADL from datasets collected from different homes. Thus, our PIR-based smart home technology could improve care and provide valuable information to better understand the functioning of our societies, as well as to inform both individual and collective action in a smart city scenario.