Evaluating multivariate volatility forecasts : how effective are statistical and economic loss functions?

Multivariate volatility forecasts are an important input in many financial applications, in particular portfolio optimisation problems. Given the number of models available and the range of loss functions to discriminate between them, it is obvious that selecting the optimal forecasting model is challenging. The aim of this thesis is to thoroughly investigate how effective many commonly used statistical (MSE and QLIKE) and economic (portfolio variance and portfolio utility) loss functions are at discriminating between competing multivariate volatility forecasts. An analytical investigation of the loss functions is performed to determine whether they identify the correct forecast as the best forecast. This is followed by an extensive simulation study examines the ability of the loss functions to consistently rank forecasts, and their statistical power within tests of predictive ability. For the tests of predictive ability, the model confidence set (MCS) approach of Hansen, Lunde and Nason (2003, 2011) is employed. As well, an empirical study investigates whether simulation findings hold in a realistic setting. In light of these earlier studies, a major empirical study seeks to identify the set of superior multivariate volatility forecasting models from 43 models that use either daily squared returns or realised volatility to generate forecasts. This study also assesses how the choice of volatility proxy affects the ability of the statistical loss functions to discriminate between forecasts. Analysis of the loss functions shows that QLIKE, MSE and portfolio variance can discriminate between multivariate volatility forecasts, while portfolio utility cannot. An examination of the effective loss functions shows that they all can identify the correct forecast at a point in time, however, their ability to discriminate between competing forecasts does vary. That is, QLIKE is identified as the most effective loss function, followed by portfolio variance which is then followed by MSE. The major empirical analysis reports that the optimal set of multivariate volatility forecasting models includes forecasts generated from daily squared returns and realised volatility. Furthermore, it finds that the volatility proxy affects the statistical loss functions’ ability to discriminate between forecasts in tests of predictive ability. These findings deepen our understanding of how to choose between competing multivariate volatility forecasts.

An economic evaluation of the Safe Motherhood programme in Guangxi, China

Maternal and infant mortality is a global health issue with a significant social and economic impact. Each year, over half a million women worldwide die due to complications related to pregnancy or childbirth, four million infants die in the first 28 days of life, and eight million infants die in the first year. Ninety-nine percent of maternal and infant deaths are in developing countries. Reducing maternal and infant mortality is among the key international development goals. In China, the national maternal mortality ratio and infant mortality rate were reduced greatly in the past two decades, yet a large discrepancy remains between urban and rural areas. To address this problem, a large-scale Safe Motherhood Programme was initiated in 2000. The programme was implemented in Guangxi in 2003. Interventions in the programme included both demand-side and supply side-interventions focusing on increasing health service use and improving birth outcomes. Little is known about the effects and economic outcomes of the Safe Motherhood Programme in Guangxi, although it has been implemented for seven years. The aim of this research is to estimate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the interventions in the Safe Motherhood Programme in Guangxi, China. The objectives of this research include: 1. To evaluate whether the changes of health service use and birth outcomes are associated with the interventions in the Safe Motherhood Programme. 2. To estimate the cost-effectiveness of the interventions in the Safe Motherhood Programme and quantify the uncertainty surrounding the decision. 3. To assess the expected value of perfect information associated with both the whole decision and individual parameters, and interpret the findings to inform priority setting in further research and policy making in this area. A quasi-experimental study design was used in this research to assess the effectiveness of the programme in increasing health service use and improving birth outcomes. The study subjects were 51 intervention counties and 30 control counties. Data on the health service use, birth outcomes and socio-economic factors from 2001 to 2007 were collected from the programme database and statistical yearbooks. Based on the profile plots of the data, general linear mixed models were used to evaluate the effectiveness of the programme while controlling for the effects of baseline levels of the response variables, change of socio-economic factors over time and correlations among repeated measurements from the same county. Redundant multicollinear variables were deleted from the mixed model using the results of the multicollinearity diagnoses. For each response variable, the best covariance structure was selected from 15 alternatives according to the fit statistics including Akaike information criterion, Finite-population corrected Akaike information criterion, and Schwarz.s Bayesian information criterion. Residual diagnostics were used to validate the model assumptions. Statistical inferences were made to show the effect of the programme on health service use and birth outcomes. A decision analytic model was developed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the programme, quantify the decision uncertainty, and estimate the expected value of perfect information associated with the decision. The model was used to describe the transitions between health states for women and infants and reflect the change of both costs and health benefits associated with implementing the programme. Result gained from the mixed models and other relevant evidence identified were synthesised appropriately to inform the input parameters of the model. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of the programme were calculated for the two groups of intervention counties over time. Uncertainty surrounding the parameters was dealt with using probabilistic sensitivity analysis, and uncertainty relating to model assumptions was handled using scenario analysis. Finally the expected value of perfect information for both the whole model and individual parameters in the model were estimated to inform priority setting in further research in this area.The annual change rates of the antenatal care rate and the institutionalised delivery rate were improved significantly in the intervention counties after the programme was implemented. Significant improvements were also found in the annual change rates of the maternal mortality ratio, the infant mortality rate, the incidence rate of neonatal tetanus and the mortality rate of neonatal tetanus in the intervention counties after the implementation of the programme. The annual change rate of the neonatal mortality rate was also improved, although the improvement was only close to statistical significance. The influences of the socio-economic factors on the health service use indicators and birth outcomes were identified. The rural income per capita had a significant positive impact on the health service use indicators, and a significant negative impact on the birth outcomes. The number of beds in healthcare institutions per 1,000 population and the number of rural telephone subscribers per 1,000 were found to be positively significantly related to the institutionalised delivery rate. The length of highway per square kilometre negatively influenced the maternal mortality ratio. The percentage of employed persons in the primary industry had a significant negative impact on the institutionalised delivery rate, and a significant positive impact on the infant mortality rate and neonatal mortality rate. The incremental costs of implementing the programme over the existing practice were US $11.1 million from the societal perspective, and US $13.8 million from the perspective of the Ministry of Health. Overall, 28,711 life years were generated by the programme, producing an overall incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of US $386 from the societal perspective, and US $480 from the perspective of the Ministry of Health, both of which were below the threshold willingness-to-pay ratio of US $675. The expected net monetary benefit generated by the programme was US $8.3 million from the societal perspective, and US $5.5 million from the perspective of the Ministry of Health. The overall probability that the programme was cost-effective was 0.93 and 0.89 from the two perspectives, respectively. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of the programme was insensitive to the different estimates of the three parameters relating to the model assumptions. Further research could be conducted to reduce the uncertainty surrounding the decision, in which the upper limit of investment was US $0.6 million from the societal perspective, and US $1.3 million from the perspective of the Ministry of Health. It is also worthwhile to get a more precise estimate of the improvement of infant mortality rate. The population expected value of perfect information for individual parameters associated with this parameter was US $0.99 million from the societal perspective, and US $1.14 million from the perspective of the Ministry of Health. The findings from this study have shown that the interventions in the Safe Motherhood Programme were both effective and cost-effective in increasing health service use and improving birth outcomes in rural areas of Guangxi, China. Therefore, the programme represents a good public health investment and should be adopted and further expanded to an even broader area if possible. This research provides economic evidence to inform efficient decision making in improving maternal and infant health in developing countries.

Designing university, government and industry community engagement to build informed and effective interventions in the area of road safety

Individuals, community organisations and industry have always been involved to varying degrees in efforts to address the Queensland road toll. Traditionally, road crash prevention efforts have been led by state and local government organisations. While community and industry groups have sometimes become involved (e.g. Driver Reviver campaign), their efforts have largely been uncoordinated and under-resourced. A common strength of these initiatives lies in the energy, enthusiasm and persistence of community-based efforts. Conversely, a weakness has sometimes been the lack of knowledge, awareness or prioritisation of evidence-based interventions or their capacity to build on collaborative efforts. In 2000, the Queensland University of Technology’s Centre for Accident Research and Road Safety – Queensland (CARRS-Q) identified this issue as an opportunity to bridge practice and research and began acknowledging a selection of these initiatives, in partnership with the RACQ, through the Queensland Road Safety Awards program. After nine years it became apparent there was need to strengthen this connection, with the Centre establishing a Community Engagement Workshop in 2009 as part of the overall Awards program. With an aim of providing community participants opportunities to see, hear and discuss the experiences of others, this event was further developed in 2010, and with the collaboration of the Queensland Department of Transport and Main Roads, the RACQ, Queensland Police Service and Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd, a stand-alone Queensland Road Safety Awards Community Engagement Workshop was held in 2010. Each collaborating organisation recognised a need to mobilise the community through effective information and knowledge sharing, and recognised that learning and discussion can influence lasting behaviour change and action in this often emotive, yet not always evidence-based, area. This free event featured a number of speakers representing successful projects from around Australia and overseas. Attendees were encouraged to interact with the speakers, to ask questions, and most importantly, build connections with other attendees to build a ‘community road safety army’ all working throughout Australia on projects underpinned by evaluated research. The workshop facilitated the integration of research, policy and grass-roots action enhancing the success of community road safety initiatives. For collaboration partners, the event enabled them to transfer their knowledge in an engaged approach, working within a more personal communication process. An analysis of the success factors for this event identified openness to community groups and individuals, relevance of content to local initiatives, generous support with the provision of online materials and ongoing communication with key staff members as critical and supports the view that the university can directly provide both the leadership and the research needed for effective and credible community-based initiatives to address injury and death on the roads.

Reduction of functionalized graphite oxides by trioctylphosphine in non-polar organic solvents

Graphene, functionalized with oleylamine (OA) and soluble in non-polar organic solvents, was produced on a large scale with a high yield by combining the Hummers process for graphite oxidation, an amine-coupling process to make OA-functionalized graphite oxide (OA-GO), and a novel reduction process using trioctylphosphine (TOP). TOP acts as both a reducing agent and an aggregation-prevention surfactant in the reduction of OA-GO in 1,2-dichlorobenzene (DCB). The reduction of OA-GO is confirmed by X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy, Fourier-transform infrared spectroscopy, X-ray diffraction, thermogravimetric analysis, and Raman spectroscopy. The exfoliation of GO, OA GO, and OA-functionalized graphene (OA-G) is verified by atomic force microscopy. The conductivity of TOP-reduced OA G, which is deduced from the current–voltage characteristics of a vacuum-filtered thin film, shows that the reduction of functionalized GO by TOP is as effective as the reduction of GO by hydrazine.

Simulations of the effect of waveguide cross-section on quantum dot – plasmon coupling

Quantum dot - plasmon waveguide systems are of interest for the active control of plasmon propagation, and consequently, the development of active nanophotonic devices such as nano-sized optical transistors. This paper is concerned with how varying aspect ratio of the waveguide crosssection affects the quantum dot - plasmon coupling. We compare a stripe waveguide with an equivalent nanowire, illustrating that both waveguides have a similar coupling strength to a nearby quantum dot for small waveguide cross-section, thereby indicating that stripe lithographic waveguides have strong potential use in quantum dot –plasmon waveguide systems. We also demonstrate that changing the aspect ratio of both stripe and wire waveguides can increase the spontaneous emission rate of the quantum dot into the plasmon mode, by up to a factor of five. The results of this paper will contribute to the optimisation of quantum dot - plasmon waveguide systems and help pave the way for the development of active nanophotonics devices.

Effective attacking strategies in rugby union

Evasive change-of-direction manoeuvres (agility skills) are a fundamental ability in rugby union. In this study, we explored the attributes of agility skill execution as they relate to effective attacking strategies in rugby union. Seven Super 14 games were coded using variables that assessed team patterns and individual movement characteristics during attacking ball carries. The results indicated that tackle-breaks are a key determinant of try-scoring ability and team success in rugby union. The ability of the attacking ball carrier to receive the ball at high speed with at least two body lengths from the defence line against an isolated defender promoted tackle-breaks. Furthermore, the execution of a side-step evasive manoeuvre at a change of direction angle of 20–60° and a distance of one to two body lengths from the defence, and then straightening the running line following the initial direction change at an angle of 20–60°, was associated with tackle-breaks. This study provides critical insight regarding the attributes of agility skill execution that are associated with effective ball carries in rugby union.

Coupling hybrid-game strategies with particle swarm optimisation for multi-objective high lift systems design optimisation

This paper investigates the High Lift System (HLS) application of complex aerodynamic design problem using Particle Swarm Optimisation (PSO) coupled to Game strategies. Two types of optimization methods are used; the first method is a standard PSO based on Pareto dominance and the second method hybridises PSO with a well-known Nash Game strategies named Hybrid-PSO. These optimization techniques are coupled to a pre/post processor GiD providing unstructured meshes during the optimisation procedure and a transonic analysis software PUMI. The computational efficiency and quality design obtained by PSO and Hybrid-PSO are compared. The numerical results for the multi-objective HLS design optimisation clearly shows the benefits of hybridising a PSO with the Nash game and makes promising the above methodology for solving other more complex multi-physics optimisation problems in Aeronautics.

Psychological interventions for alcohol misuse among people with co-occurring depression or anxiety disorders: A systematic review

Abstract OBJECTIVE: Depression, anxiety and alcohol misuse frequently co-occur. While there is an extensive literature reporting on the efficacy of psychological treatments that target depression, anxiety or alcohol misuse separately, less research has examined treatments that address these disorders when they co-occur. We conducted a systematic review to determine whether psychological interventions that target alcohol misuse among people with co-occurring depressive or anxiety disorders are effective. DATA SOURCES: We systematically searched the PubMed and PsychINFO databases from inception to March 2010. Individual searches in alcohol, depression and anxiety were conducted, and were limited to 'human' published 'randomized controlled trials' or 'sequential allocation' articles written in English. STUDY SELECTION: We identified randomized controlled trials that compared manual guided psychological interventions for alcohol misuse among individuals with depressive or anxiety disorders. Of 1540 articles identified, eight met inclusion criteria for the review. DATA EXTRACTION: From each study, we recorded alcohol and mental health outcomes, and other relevant clinical factors including age, gender ratio, follow-up length and drop-out rates. Quality of studies was also assessed. DATA SYNTHESIS: Motivational interviewing and cognitive-behavioral interventions were associated with significant reductions in alcohol consumption and depressive and/or anxiety symptoms. Although brief interventions were associated with significant improvements in both mental health and alcohol use variables, longer interventions produced even better outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: There is accumulating evidence for the effectiveness of motivational interviewing and cognitive behavior therapy for people with co-occurring alcohol and depressive or anxiety disorders.

Enduring documents : improving the forms, improving the outcomes

Most Australian states have introduced legislation to provide for enduring documents for financial, personal and health care decision making in the event of incapacity. Since the introduction of Enduring Powers of Attorney (EPAs) and Advance Health Directives (AHDs) in Queensland in 1998, concerns have continued to be raised by service providers, professionals and individuals about the uptake, understanding and appropriate use of these documents. In response to these concerns, the Department of Justice and Attorney-General (DJAG) convened a Practical Guardianship Initiatives Working Party. This group identified the limited evidence base available to address these concerns. In 2009, a multidisciplinary research team from the University of Queensland and the Queensland University of Technology was awarded $90,000 from the Legal Practitioners Interest on Trust Account Fund to undertake a review of the current EPA and AHD forms. The goal of the research was to gather data on the content and useability of the forms from the perspectives of a range of stakeholders, particularly those completing the EPA and AHD, witnesses of these documents, attorneys appointed under an EPA, and health professionals involved in the completion of an AHD or dealing with it in a clinical context. The researchers also sought to gather information from the perspective of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander (ATSI) individuals as well people from culturally and linguistically diverse (CALD) groups. Although the focus of the research was on the forms and the extent to which the current design, content and format represents a barrier to uptake, in the course of the research, some broader issues were identified which have an impact on the effectiveness of the EPA and AHD in achieving the goals of planning for financial and personal and health care in advance of losing capacity. The data gathered enabled the researchers to achieve the primary goal of the research: to make recommendations to improve the content and useability of the forms which hopefully will lead to an increased uptake and appropriate use of the forms. However, the researchers thought it was important not to ignore broader policy issues that were identified in the course of the research. These broader issues have been highlighted in this Report, and the researchers have responded to them in a variety of ways. For some issues, the researchers have suggested alterations that could be made to the forms to address the particular concerns. For other issues, the researchers have suggested that Government may need to take specific action such as educating the broader community with some attention to strategies that engage particular groups within communities. Other concerns raised can only be dealt with by legislative reform and, in some of these cases, the researchers have identified issues that Government may wish to consider further. We do note, however, that it is beyond the scope of this Report to recommend changes to the law. This three stage mixed methods project aimed to provide systematic evidence from a broad range of stakeholders in regard to: (i) which groups use and do not use these documents and why, (ii) the contribution of the length/complexity/format/language of the forms as barriers to their completion and/or effective use, and (iii) the issues raised by the current documents for witnesses and attorneys. Understanding and use of EPAs and AHDs were generally explored in separate but parallel processes. A purposive sampling strategy included users of the documents as principals and attorneys, and professionals, witnesses and service providers who assist others to execute or use the forms. The first component of this study built on existing knowledge using a Critical Reference Group and material provided by the DJAG Practical Guardianship Initiatives Working Party. This assisted in the development of the data collection tools for subsequent stages. The second component comprised semi-structured interviews and focus groups with a targeted sample of current users of the forms, potential users, witnesses and other professionals to provide in-depth information on critical issues. Outreach to Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Elders and individuals and workers with CALD groups ensured a broad sample of potential users of the two documents. Fifty individual interviews and three focus groups were completed. Most interviews and focus groups focused on perceptions of, and experiences with, either the EPA or the AHD form. In the interviews with Indigenous people and the CALD focus groups, however, respondents provided their perceptions and experiences of both documents. In general, these respondents had not used the forms and were responding to the documents made available in the interview or focus group. In total, seventy-seven individuals were involved in interviews or focus groups. The final component comprised on-line surveys for EPA principals, EPA attorneys, AHD principals, witnesses of EPAs and AHDs and medical practitioners with experience of AHDs as nominated and/or treating doctors. The surveys were developed from the initial component and the qualitative analysis of the interview and focus group data. A total of 116 surveys were returned from major cities and regional Queensland. The survey data was analysed descriptively for patterns and trends. It is important to note that the aim of the survey was to gain insight into issues and concerns relating to the documents and not to make generalisations to the broader population.

Policy analysis of disaster health management in China

Humankind has been dealing with all kinds of disasters since the dawn of time. The risk and impact of disasters producing mass casualties worldwide is increasing, due partly to global warming as well as to increased population growth, increased density and the aging population. China, as a country with a large population, vast territory, and complex climatic and geographical conditions, has been plagued by all kinds of disasters. Disaster health management has traditionally been a relatively arcane discipline within public health. However, SARS, Avian Influenza, and earthquakes and floods, along with the need to be better prepared for the Olympic Games in China has brought disasters, their management and their potential for large scale health consequences on populations to the attention of the public, the government and the international community alike. As a result significant improvements were made to the disaster management policy framework, as well as changes to systems and structures to incorporate an improved disaster management focus. This involved the upgrade of the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) throughout China to monitor and better control the health consequences particularly of infectious disease outbreaks. However, as can be seen in the Southern China Snow Storm and Wenchuan Earthquake in 2008, there remains a lack of integrated disaster management and efficient medical rescue, which has been costly in terms of economics and health for China. In the context of a very large and complex country, there is a need to better understand whether these changes have resulted in effective management of the health impacts of such incidents. To date, the health consequences of disasters, particularly in China, have not been a major focus of study. The main aim of this study is to analyse and evaluate disaster health management policy in China and in particular, its ability to effectively manage the health consequences of disasters. Flood has been selected for this study as it is a common and significant disaster type in China and throughout the world. This information will then be used to guide conceptual understanding of the health consequences of floods. A secondary aim of the study is to compare disaster health management in China and Australia as these countries differ in their length of experience in having a formalised policy response. The final aim of the study is to determine the extent to which Walt and Gilson’s (1994) model of policy explains how disaster management policy in China was developed and implemented after SARS in 2003 to the present day. This study has utilised a case study methodology. A document analysis and literature search of Chinese and English sources was undertaken to analyse and produce a chronology of disaster health management policy in China. Additionally, three detailed case studies of flood health management in China were undertaken along with three case studies in Australia in order to examine the policy response and any health consequences stemming from the floods. A total of 30 key international disaster health management experts were surveyed to identify fundamental elements and principles of a successful policy framework for disaster health management. Key policy ingredients were identified from the literature, the case-studies and the survey of experts. Walt and Gilson (1994)’s policy model that focuses on the actors, content, context and process of policy was found to be a useful model for analysing disaster health management policy development and implementation in China. This thesis is divided into four parts. Part 1 is a brief overview of the issues and context to set the scene. Part 2 examines the conceptual and operational context including the international literature, government documents and the operational environment for disaster health management in China. Part 3 examines primary sources of information to inform the analysis. This involves two key studies: • A comparative analysis of the management of floods in China and Australia • A survey of international experts in the field of disaster management so as to inform the evaluation of the policy framework in existence in China and the criteria upon which the expression of that policy could be evaluated Part 4 describes the key outcomes of this research which include: • A conceptual framework for describing the health consequences of floods • A conceptual framework for disaster health management • An evaluation of the disaster health management policy and its implementation in China. The research outcomes clearly identified that the most significant improvements are to be derived from improvements in the generic management of disasters, rather than the health aspects alone. Thus, the key findings and recommendations tend to focus on generic issues. The key findings of this research include the following: • The health consequences of floods may be described in terms of time as ‘immediate’, ‘medium term’ and ‘long term’ and also in relation to causation as ‘direct’ and ‘indirect’ consequences of the flood. These two aspects form a matrix which in turn guides management responses. • Disaster health management in China requires a more comprehensive response throughout the cycle of prevention, preparedness, response and recovery but it also requires a more concentrated effort on policy implementation to ensure the translation of the policy framework into effective incident management. • The policy framework in China is largely of international standard with a sound legislative base. In addition the development of the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention has provided the basis for a systematic approach to health consequence management. However, the key weaknesses in the current system include: o The lack of a key central structure to provide the infrastructure with vital support for policy development, implementation and evaluation. o The lack of well-prepared local response teams similar to local government based volunteer groups in Australia. • The system lacks structures to coordinate government action at the local level. The result of this is a poorly coordinated local response and lack of clarity regarding the point at which escalation of the response to higher levels of government is advisable. These result in higher levels of risk and negative health impacts. The key recommendations arising from this study are: 1. Disaster health management policy in China should be enhanced by incorporating disaster management considerations into policy development, and by requiring a disaster management risk analysis and disaster management impact statement for development proposals. 2. China should transform existing organizations to establish a central organisation similar to the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) in the USA or the Emergency Management Australia (EMA) in Australia. This organization would be responsible for leading nationwide preparedness through planning, standards development, education and incident evaluation and to provide operational support to the national and local government bodies in the event of a major incident. 3. China should review national and local plans to reflect consistency in planning, and to emphasize the advantages of the integrated planning process. 4. Enhance community resilience through community education and the development of a local volunteer organization. China should develop a national strategy which sets direction and standards in regard to education and training, and requires system testing through exercises. Other initiatives may include the development of a local volunteer capability with appropriate training to assist professional response agencies such as police and fire services in a major incident. An existing organisation such as the Communist Party may be an appropriate structure to provide this response in a cost effective manner. 5. Continue development of professional emergency services, particularly ambulance, to ensure an effective infrastructure is in place to support the emergency response in disasters. 6. Funding for disaster health management should be enhanced, not only from government, but also from other sources such as donations and insurance. It is necessary to provide a more transparent mechanism to ensure the funding is disseminated according to the needs of the people affected. 7. Emphasis should be placed on prevention and preparedness, especially on effective disaster warnings. 8. China should develop local disaster health management infrastructure utilising existing resources wherever possible. Strategies for enhancing local infrastructure could include the identification of local resources (including military resources) which could be made available to support disaster responses. It should develop operational procedures to access those resources. Implementation of these recommendations should better position China to reduce the significant health consequences experienced each year from major incidents such as floods and to provide an increased level of confidence to the community about the country’s capacity to manage such events.

Sky high and back again : the evolution of simulation-based design from aerospace to construction

Emerging from the challenge to reduce energy consumption in buildings is a need for research and development into the more effective use of simulation as a decision-support tool. Despite significant research, persistent limitations in process and software inhibit the integration of energy simulation in early architectural design. This paper presents a green star case study to highlight the obstacles commonly encountered with current integration strategies. It then examines simulation-based design in the aerospace industry, which has overcome similar limitations. Finally, it proposes a design system based on this contrasting approach, coupling parametric modelling and energy simulation software for rapid and iterative performance assessment of early design options.

An effective approach to verbose queries using a limited dependencies language model

Intuitively, any ‘bag of words’ approach in IR should benefit from taking term dependencies into account. Unfortunately, for years the results of exploiting such dependencies have been mixed or inconclusive. To improve the situation, this paper shows how the natural language properties of the target documents can be used to transform and enrich the term dependencies to more useful statistics. This is done in three steps. The term co-occurrence statistics of queries and documents are each represented by a Markov chain. The paper proves that such a chain is ergodic, and therefore its asymptotic behavior is unique, stationary, and independent of the initial state. Next, the stationary distribution is taken to model queries and documents, rather than their initial distributions. Finally, ranking is achieved following the customary language modeling paradigm. The main contribution of this paper is to argue why the asymptotic behavior of the document model is a better representation then just the document’s initial distribution. A secondary contribution is to investigate the practical application of this representation in case the queries become increasingly verbose. In the experiments (based on Lemur’s search engine substrate) the default query model was replaced by the stable distribution of the query. Just modeling the query this way already resulted in significant improvements over a standard language model baseline. The results were on a par or better than more sophisticated algorithms that use fine-tuned parameters or extensive training. Moreover, the more verbose the query, the more effective the approach seems to become.

Fast and effective focused retrieval

Building an efficient and an effective search engine is a very challenging task. In this paper, we present the efficiency and effectiveness of our search engine at the INEX 2009 Efficiency and Ad Hoc Tracks. We have developed a simple and effective pruning method for fast query evaluation, and used a two-step process for Ad Hoc retrieval. The overall results from both tracks show that our search engine performs very competitively in terms of both efficiency and effectiveness.