The role of atmosphere feedbacks during ENSO in the CMIP3 models. Part II: using AMIP runs to understand the heat flux feedback mechanisms

Several studies using ocean–atmosphere general circulation models (GCMs) suggest that the atmospheric component plays a dominant role in the modelled El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). To help elucidate these findings, the two main atmosphere feedbacks relevant to ENSO, the Bjerknes positive feedback (μ) and the heat flux negative feedback (α), are here analysed in nine AMIP runs of the CMIP3 multimodel dataset. We find that these models generally have improved feedbacks compared to the coupled runs which were analysed in part I of this study. The Bjerknes feedback, μ, is increased in most AMIP runs compared to the coupled run counterparts, and exhibits both positive and negative biases with respect to ERA40. As in the coupled runs, the shortwave and latent heat flux feedbacks are the two dominant components of α in the AMIP runs. We investigate the mechanisms behind these two important feedbacks, in particular focusing on the strong 1997–1998 El Niño. Biases in the shortwave flux feedback, α SW, are the main source of model uncertainty in α. Most models do not successfully represent the negative αSW in the East Pacific, primarily due to an overly strong low-cloud positive feedback in the far eastern Pacific. Biases in the cloud response to dynamical changes dominate the modelled α SW biases, though errors in the large-scale circulation response to sea surface temperature (SST) forcing also play a role. Analysis of the cloud radiative forcing in the East Pacific reveals model biases in low cloud amount and optical thickness which may affect α SW. We further show that the negative latent heat flux feedback, α LH, exhibits less diversity than α SW and is primarily driven by variations in the near-surface specific humidity difference. However, biases in both the near-surface wind speed and humidity response to SST forcing can explain the inter-model αLH differences.

Response of tropical cyclones to idealized climate change experiments in a global high resolution coupled general circulation model

We present an assessment of how tropical cyclone activity might change due to the influence of increased atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, using the UK’s High Resolution Global Environment Model (HiGEM) with N144 resolution (~90 km in the atmosphere and ~40 km in the ocean). Tropical cyclones are identified using a feature tracking algorithm applied to model output. Tropical cyclones from idealized 30-year 2×CO2 (2CO2) and 4×CO2 (4CO2) simulations are compared to those identified in a 150-year present-day simulation, which is separated into a 5-member ensemble of 30-year integrations. Tropical cyclones are shown to decrease in frequency globally by 9% in the 2CO2 and 26% in the 4CO2. Tropical cyclones only become more intese in the 4CO2, however uncoupled time slice experiments reveal an increase in intensity in the 2CO2. An investigation into the large-scale environmental conditions, known to influence tropical cyclone activity in the main development regions, is used to determine the response of tropical cyclone activity to increased atmospheric CO2. A weaker Walker circulation and a reduction in zonally averaged regions of updrafts lead to a shift in the location of tropical cyclones in the northern hemisphere. A decrease in mean ascent at 500 hPa contributes to the reduction of tropical cyclones in the 2CO2 in most basins. The larger reduction of tropical cyclones in the 4CO2 arises from further reduction of mean ascent at 500 hPa and a large enhancement of vertical wind shear, especially in the southern hemisphere, North Atlantic and North East Pacific.

Modelling the effects of gravity waves on stratocumulus clouds observed during VOCALS-UK

During the VOCALS campaign spaceborne satellite observations showed that travelling gravity wave packets, generated by geostrophic adjustment, resulted in perturbations to marine boundary layer (MBL) clouds over the south-east Pacific Ocean (SEP). Often, these perturbations were reversible in that passage of the wave resulted in the clouds becoming brighter (in the wave crest), then darker (in the wave trough) and subsequently recovering their properties after the passage of the wave. However, occasionally the wave packets triggered irreversible changes to the clouds, which transformed from closed mesoscale cellular convection to open form. In this paper we use large eddy simulation (LES) to examine the physical mechanisms that cause this transition. Specifically, we examine whether the clearing of the cloud is due to (i) the wave causing additional cloud-top entrainment of warm, dry air or (ii) whether the additional condensation of liquid water onto the existing drops and the subsequent formation of drizzle are the important mechanisms. We find that, although the wave does cause additional drizzle formation, this is not the reason for the persistent clearing of the cloud; rather it is the additional entrainment of warm, dry air into the cloud followed by a reduction in longwave cooling, although this only has a significant effect when the cloud is starting to decouple from the boundary layer. The result in this case is a change from a stratocumulus to a more patchy cloud regime. For the simulations presented here, cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) scavenging did not play an important role in the clearing of the cloud. The results have implications for understanding transitions between the different cellular regimes in marine boundary layer (MBL) clouds.

A systematic approach to identify the sources of tropical SST errors in coupled models using the adjustment of initialised experiments

Understanding the sources of systematic errors in climate models is challenging because of coupled feedbacks and errors compensation. The developing seamless approach proposes that the identification and the correction of short term climate model errors have the potential to improve the modeled climate on longer time scales. In previous studies, initialised atmospheric simulations of a few days have been used to compare fast physics processes (convection, cloud processes) among models. The present study explores how initialised seasonal to decadal hindcasts (re-forecasts) relate transient week-to-month errors of the ocean and atmospheric components to the coupled model long-term pervasive SST errors. A protocol is designed to attribute the SST biases to the source processes. It includes five steps: (1) identify and describe biases in a coupled stabilized simulation, (2) determine the time scale of the advent of the bias and its propagation, (3) find the geographical origin of the bias, (4) evaluate the degree of coupling in the development of the bias, (5) find the field responsible for the bias. This strategy has been implemented with a set of experiments based on the initial adjustment of initialised simulations and exploring various degrees of coupling. In particular, hindcasts give the time scale of biases advent, regionally restored experiments show the geographical origin and ocean-only simulations isolate the field responsible for the bias and evaluate the degree of coupling in the bias development. This strategy is applied to four prominent SST biases of the IPSLCM5A-LR coupled model in the tropical Pacific, that are largely shared by other coupled models, including the Southeast Pacific warm bias and the equatorial cold tongue bias. Using the proposed protocol, we demonstrate that the East Pacific warm bias appears in a few months and is caused by a lack of upwelling due to too weak meridional coastal winds off Peru. The cold equatorial bias, which surprisingly takes 30 years to develop, is the result of an equatorward advection of midlatitude cold SST errors. Despite large development efforts, the current generation of coupled models shows only little improvement. The strategy proposed in this study is a further step to move from the current random ad hoc approach, to a bias-targeted, priority setting, systematic model development approach.

ENSO related variation of equatorial MRG and Rossby waves and forcing from higher latitudes

The contrasting behaviour of westward-moving mixed Rossby-gravity (WMRG) and the first Rossby (R1) waves in El Niño (EN) and La Niña (LN) seasons is documented with a focus on the Northern Hemisphere winter. The eastward-moving variance in the upper troposphere is dominated by WMRG and R1 structures that appear to be Doppler-shifted by the flow and are referred to as WMRG-E and R1-E. In the East Pacific and Atlantic the years with stronger equatorial westerly winds have the stronger WMRG and WMRG- E. In the East Pacific, R1 is also a maximum in LN. However, R1-E exhibits an eastward-shift between LN and EN. The changes with ENSO phase provide a test-bed for the understanding of these waves. In the East Pacific and Atlantic, the stronger WMRG-E and WMRG with stronger westerlies are in accord with the dispersion relation with simple Doppler-shifting by the zonal flow. The possible existence of free waves can also explain stronger R1 in EN in the Eastern Hemisphere. 1-D free wave propagation theory based on wave activity conservation is also important for R1. However, this theory is unable to explain the amplitude maxima for other waves observed in the strong equatorial westerly regions in the Western Hemisphere, and certainly not their ENSO-related variation. The forcing of equatorial waves by higher latitude wave activity and its variation with ENSO phase is therefore examined. Propagation of extratropical eastward-moving Rossby wave activity through the westerly ducts into the equatorial region where it triggers WMRG-E is favoured in the stronger westerlies, in LN in the East Pacific and EN in the Atlantic. It is also found that WMRG is forced by Southern Hemisphere westward-moving wavetrains arching into the equatorial region where they are reflected. The most significant mechanism for both R1 and R1-E appear to be lateral forcing by subtropical wavetrains.

Germination rate and sporeling development of Chondracanthus chamissoi (Rhodophyta, Gigartinales) varies along a latitudinal gradient on the coast of Chile

Chondracanthus chamissoi (C. Agardh) Kutzing is an economically important red seaweed with an extended latitudinal distribution along the south-east Pacific. Here we report on the seasonal in vitro germination of carpospores and tetraspores from four populations distributed from 27 to 41 degrees S on the Chilean coast. Our results show that both types of spores exhibited a different physiological behavior related to the geographic origin of the specimens. Germination occurred throughout the year for both spore types in the four populations. However, for the northern locations (Calderilla, La Herradura and Puerto Aldea) germination was higher in spring, while for the southern location (Lechagua), germination was higher in summer. The growth rate of carposporelings and tetrasporelings varied seasonally in ail locations studied, with higher growth in spring. Among all, carposporelings from Lechagua specimens reached the highest growth rates (9.3 +/- 0.2% d(-1)). However, spores from Herradura and P. Aldea had a good germination and SGR in all seasons and would be good candidates to start spores-based cultivation of this valuable resource in Chile. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved

Global and regional sea level variations in the recent past and future: insight from observations and modeling

This work is focused on the analysis of sea–level change (last century), based mainly on instrumental observations. During this period, individual components of sea–level change are investigated, both at global and regional scales. Some of the geophysical processes responsible for current sea-level change such as glacial isostatic adjustments and current melting terrestrial ice sources, have been modeled and compared with observations. A new value of global mean sea level change based of tide gauges observations has been independently assessed in 1.5 mm/year, using corrections for glacial isostatic adjustment obtained with different models as a criterion for the tide gauge selection. The long wavelength spatial variability of the main components of sea–level change has been investigated by means of traditional and new spectral methods. Complex non–linear trends and abrupt sea–level variations shown by tide gauges records have been addressed applying different approaches to regional case studies. The Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition technique has been used to analyse tide gauges records from the Adriatic Sea to ascertain the existence of cyclic sea-level variations. An Early Warning approach have been adopted to detect tipping points in sea–level records of North East Pacific and their relationship with oceanic modes. Global sea–level projections to year 2100 have been obtained by a semi-empirical approach based on the artificial neural network method. In addition, a model-based approach has been applied to the case of the Mediterranean Sea, obtaining sea-level projection to year 2050.

Geochemistry of manganese nodules from a British Columbia fjord

Concretions of iron and manganese oxides and hydrous oxidesóobjects commonly called manganese nodulesóare widely distributed not only on the deep-sea floor but also in shallow marine environments1. Such concretions were not known to occur north of Cape Mendocino in the shallow water zones bordering the North-East Pacific Ocean until the summer of 1966 when they were recovered by one of us (J. W. M.) in dredge samples from Jervis Inlet, a fjord approximately 50 miles north-west of Vancouver, British Columbia.

Geological investigations on sediment core MD07-3128

Glacial millennial-scale paleoceanographic changes in the Southeast Pacific and the adjacent Southern Ocean are poorly known due to the scarcity of well-dated and high resolution sediment records. Here we present new surface water records from sediment core MD07-3128 recovered at 53°S off the Pacific entrance of the Strait of Magellan. The alkenone-derived sea surface temperature (SST) record reveals a very strong warming of ca. 8°C over the last Termination and substantial millennial-scale variability in the glacial section largely consistent with our planktonic foraminifera oxygen isotope (d18O) record of Neogloboquadrina pachyderma (sin.). The timing and structure of the Termination and some of the millennial-scale SST fluctuations are very similar to those observed in the well-dated SST record from ODP Site 1233 (41°S) and the temperature record from Drowning Maud Land Antarctic ice core supporting the hemispheric-wide Antarctic timing of SST changes. However, differences in our new SST record are also found including a long-term warming trend over Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 3 followed by a cooling toward the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). We suggest that these differences reflect regional cooling related to the proximal location of the southern Patagonian Ice Sheet and related meltwater supply at least during the LGM consistent with the fact that no longer SST cooling trend is observed in ODP Site 1233 or any SST Chilean record. This proximal ice sheet location is documented by generally higher contents of ice rafted debris (IRD) and tetra-unsaturated alkenones, and a slight trend toward lighter planktonic d18O during late MIS 3 and MIS 2.