859 resultados para Early Onset
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English: Food selection of first-feeding yellowfin tuna larvae was studied in the laboratory during October 1992. The larvae were hatched from eggs obtained by natural spawning of yellowfin adults held in sea pens adjacent to Ishigaki Island, Okinawa Prefecture, Japan. The larvae were fed mixed-prey assemblages consisting of size-graded wild zooplankton and cultured rotifers. Yellowfin larvae were found to be selective feeders during the first four days of feeding. Copepod nauplii dominated the diet numerically, by frequency of occurrence and by weight. The relative importance of juvenile and adult copepods (mostly cyclopoids) in the diet increased over the 4-day period. Rotifers, although they comprised 31 to 40 percent of the available forage, comprised less than 2.1 percent of the diet numerically. Prey selection indices were calculated taking into account the relative abundances of prey, the swimming speeds of yellowfin larvae and their prey, and the microscale influence of turbulence on encounter rates. Yellowfin selected for copepod nauplii and against rotifers, and consumed juvenile and adult copepods in proportion to their abundances. Yellowfin larvae may select copepod nauplii and cyclopoid juveniles and adults based on the size and discontinuous swimming motion of these prey. Rotifers may not have been selected because they were larger or because they exhibit a smooth swimming pattern. The best initial diet for the culture of yellowfin larvae may be copepod nauplii and cyclopoid juveniles and adults, due to the size, swimming motion, and nutritional content of these prey. If rotifers alone are fed to yellowfin larvae, the rotifers should be enriched with a nutritional supplement that is high in unsaturated fatty acids. Mouth size of yellowfin larvae increases rapidly within the first few days of feeding, which minimizes limitations on feeding due to prey size. Although yellowfin larvae initiate feeding on relatively small prey, they rapidly acquire the ability to add relatively large, rare prey items to the diet. This mode of feeding may be adaptive for the development of yellowfin larvae, which have high metabolic rates and live in warm mixed-layer habitats of the tropical and subtropical Pacific. Our analysis also indicates a strong potential for the influence of microscale turbulence on the feeding success of yellowfin larvae. --- Experiments designed to validate the periodicity of otolith increments and to examine growth rates of yellowfin tuna larvae were conducted at the Japan Sea-Farming Association’s (JASFA) Yaeyama Experimental Station, Ishigaki Island, Japan, in September 1992. Larvae were reared from eggs spawned by captive yellowfin enclosed in a sea pen in the bay adjacent to Yaeyama Station. Results indicate that the first increment is deposited within 12 hours of hatching in the otoliths of yellowfin larvae, and subsequent growth increments are formed dailyollowing the first 24 hours after hatching r larvae up to 16 days of age. Somatic and otolith gwth ras were examined and compared for yolksac a first-feeding larvae reared at constant water tempatures of 26�and 29°C. Despite the more rapid develo of larvae reared at 29°C, growth rates were nnificaifferent between the two treatments. Howeve to poor survival after the first four days, it was ssible to examine growth rates beyond the onset of first feeding, when growth differences may become more apparent. Somatic and otolith growth were also examined for larvae reared at ambient bay water temperatures during the first 24 days after hatching. timates of laboratory growth rates were come to previously reported values for laboratory-reared yelllarvae of a similar age range, but were lower than growth rates reported for field-collected larvae. The discrepancy between laboratory and field growth rates may be associated with suboptimal growth conditions in the laboratory. Spanish: Durante octubre de 1992 se estudió en el laboratorio la seleccalimento por larvaún aleta amarillmera alimentación. Las larvas provinieron de huevos obtenidosel desove natural de aletas amarillas adultos mantenidos en corrales marinos adyacentes a la Isla Ishigaki, Prefectura de Okinawa (Japón). Se alimentó a las larvas con presas mixtas de zooplancton silvestre clasificado por tamaño y rotíferos cultivados. Se descubrió que las larvas de aleta amarilla se alimentan de forma selectiva durante los cuatro primeros días de alimentación. Los nauplios de copépodo predominaron en la dieta en número, por frecuencia de ocurrencia y por peso. La importancia relativa de copépodos juveniles y adultos (principalmente ciclopoides) en la dieta aumentó en el transcurso del período de 4 días. Los rotíferos, pese a que formaban del 31 al 40% del alimento disponible, respondieron de menos del 2,1% de la dieta en número. Se calcularon índices de selección de presas tomando en cuenta la abundancia relativa de las presas, la velocidad de natación de las larvas de aleta amarilla y de sus presas, y la influencia a microescala de la turbulencia sobre las tasas de encuentro. Los aletas amarillas seleccionaron a favor de nauplios de copépodo y en contra de los rotíferos, y consumieron copépodos juveniles y adultos en proporción a su abundancia. Es posible que las larvas de aleta amarilla seleccionen nauplios de copépodo y ciclopoides juveniles y adultos con base en el tamaño y movimiento de natación discontinuo de estas presas. Es posible que no se hayan seleccionado los rotíferos a raíz de su mayor tamaño o su patrón continuo de natación. Es posible que la mejor dieta inicial para el cultivo de larvas de aleta amarilla sea nauplios de copépodo y ciclopoides juveniles y adultos, debido al tamaño, movimiento de natación, y contenido nutritivo de estas presas. Si se alimenta a las larvas de aleta amarilla con rotíferos solamente, se debería enriquecerlos con un suplemento nutritivo rico en ácidos grasos no saturados. El tamaño de la boca de las larvas de aleta amarilla aumenta rápidamente en los primeros pocos días de alimentación, reduciendo la limitación de la alimentación debida al tamaño de la presa. Pese a que las larvas de aleta amarilla inician su alimentación con presas relativamente pequeñas, se hacen rápidamente capaces de añadir presas relativamente grandes y poco comunes a la dieta. Este modo de alimentación podría ser adaptivo para el desarrollo de larvas de aleta amarilla, que tienen tasa metabólicas altas y viven en hábitats cálidos en la capa de mezcla en el Pacífico tropical y subtropical. Nuestro análisis indica también que la influencia de turbulencia a microescala es potencialmente importante para el éxito de la alimentación de las larvas de aleta amarilla. --- En septiembre de 1992 se realizaron en la Estación Experimental Yaeyama de la Japan Sea- Farming Association (JASFA) en la Isla Ishigaki (Japón) experimentos diseñados para validar la periodicidad de los incrementos en los otolitos y para examinar las tasas de crecimiento de las larvas de atún aleta amarilla. Se criaron las larvas de huevos puestos por aletas amarillas cautivos en un corral marino en la bahía adyacente a la Estación Yaeyama. Los resultados indican que el primer incremento es depositado menos de 12 horas después de la eclosión en los otolitos de las larvas de aleta amarilla, y que los incrementos de crecimiento subsiguientes son formados a diario a partir de las primeras 24 horas después de la eclosión en larvas de hasta 16 días de edad. Se examinaron y compararon las tasas de crecimiento somático y de los otolitos en larvas en las etapas de saco vitelino y de primera alimentación criadas en aguas de temperatura constante entre 26°C y 29°C. A pesar del desarrollo más rápido de las larvas criadas a 29°C, las tasas de crecimiento no fueron significativamente diferentes entre los dos tratamientos. Debido a la mala supervivencia a partir de los cuatro primeros días, no fue posibación, uando las diferencias en el crecimiento podrían hacerse más aparentes. Se examinó también el crecimiento somático y de los otolitos para larvas criadas en temperaturas de agua ambiental en la bahía durante los 24 días inmediatamente después de la eclosión. Nuestras estimaciones de las tasas de crecimiento en el laboratorio fueron comparables a valores reportados previamente para larvas de aleta amarilla de edades similares criadas en el laboratorio, pero más bajas que las tasas de crecimiento reportadas para larvas capturadas en el mar. La discrepancia entre las tasas de crecimiento en el laboratorio y el mar podría estar asociada con condiciones subóptimas de crecimiento en el lab
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The transcriptional onset of hGH-transgene in fish was studied in the following three cases: the first is in MThGH-transgenic F-4 common carp (Cyprinus carpio) embryos, the second is in nuclear-transferred embryos supported by the transgenic F-4 embryonic nuclei, and the third is in nuclear-transferred embryos supported by the transgenic F-4 tail-fin nuclei. RT-PCR results show that the hGH-transgene initiates its transcriptional activity from early-gastrula stage, the early blastula stage and even 16-cell stage in the first, second and third cases, respectively. it looks like that fish egg cytoplasm could just offer a very restricted reprogramming on transcriptional activity of specific gene in differentiated cell nuclei by nuclear transplantation.
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In the present paper, correlation between the South China Sea summer monsoon (SCSSM) onset and heat content in the upper layer of the warm pool in the western Pacific Ocean is examined using the Scripps Institution of Oceanography dataset for the period of 1955-1998 and an approach to prediction the SCSSM onset is proposed. Correlation showes that there exists interdecadal variability of the SCSSM onset demarcated by 1970 with the largest correlation coefficient in the area west of the center of the warm pool rather than near its centers, implying certain effect from other factors involved besides ENSO. As the correlation is poor for the period before 1970, the heat content anomaly of the warm pool after 1970 is used to indicate early or late onset of the SCSSM beforehand. An ideal representative area (1A degrees x1A degrees) for the warm pool heat content was determined with its center at 3A degrees N/138A degrees E. The nearest TAO (TAO-Tropical Atmosphere Ocean-array) mooring to the center is at 2A degrees N/137A degrees E, and chosen to calculate the heat content for prediction. It is suggested that the TAO mooring at 2A degrees N/137A degrees E could be used to predict the SCSSM onset with the heat content in the upper layer, if the correlation between the SCSSM onset and the heat content of the warm pool runs like that of after 1970. On the other hand, if the situation does like the one before 1970, the representative station is determined at 13A degrees S/74A degrees E with relatively poor correlation, meaning that the warm pool in the western Pacific Ocean plays more important role in the SCSSM onset than the Indian Ocean.
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Effective dosages for enzyme replacement therapy (ERT) in Pompe disease are much higher than for other lysosomal storage disorders, which has been attributed to low cation-independent mannose-6-phosphate receptor (CI-MPR) in skeletal muscle. We have previously demonstrated the benefit of increased CI-MPR-mediated uptake of recombinant human acid-α-glucosidase during ERT in mice with Pompe disease following addition of albuterol therapy. Currently we have completed a pilot study of albuterol in patients with late-onset Pompe disease already on ERT for >2 yr, who were not improving further. The 6-min walk test (6MWT) distance increased in all 7 subjects at wk 6 (30±13 m; P=0.002), wk 12 (34±14 m; P=0.004), and wk 24 (42±37 m; P=0.02), in comparison with baseline. Grip strength was improved significantly for both hands at wk 12. Furthermore, individual subjects reported benefits; e.g., a female patient could stand up from sitting on the floor much more easily (time for supine to standing position decreased from 30 to 11 s), and a male patient could readily swing his legs out of his van seat (hip abduction increased from 1 to 2+ on manual muscle testing). Finally, analysis of the quadriceps biopsies suggested increased CI-MPR at wk 12 (P=0.08), compared with baseline. With the exception of 1 patient who succumbed to respiratory complications of Pompe disease in the first week, only mild adverse events have been reported, including tremor, transient difficulty falling asleep, and mild urinary retention (requiring early morning voiding). Therefore, this pilot study revealed initial safety and efficacy in an open label study of adjunctive albuterol therapy in patients with late-onset Pompe disease who had been stable on ERT with no improvements noted over the previous several years.
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Aims/hypothesis: We investigated the association between the incidence of type 1 diabetes mellitus and remoteness (a proxy measure for exposure to infections) using recently developed techniques for statistical analysis of small-area data.
Subjects, materials and methods: New cases in children aged 0 to 14 years in Northern Ireland were prospectively registered from 1989 to 2003. Ecological analysis was conducted using small geographical units (582 electoral wards) and area characteristics including remoteness, deprivation and child population density. Analysis was conducted using Poisson regression models and Bayesian
hierarchical models to allow for spatially correlated risks that were potentially caused by unmeasured explanatory variables.
Results: In Northern Ireland between 1989 and 2003, there were 1,433 new cases of type 1 diabetes, giving a directly standardised incidence rate of 24.7 per 100,000 personyears. Areas in the most remote fifth of all areas had a significantly (p=0.0006) higher incidence of type 1 diabetes mellitus (incidence rate ratio=1.27 [95% CI 1.07, 1.50]) than those in the most accessible fifth of all areas. There was also a higher incidence rate in areas that were less deprived (p<0.0001) and less densely populated (p=0.002). After adjustment for deprivation and additional adjustment for child population density the association between diabetes and remoteness remained significant (p=0.01 and p=0.03, respectively).
Conclusions/interpretation: In Northern Ireland, there is evidence that remote areas experience higher rates of type 1 diabetes mellitus. This could reflect a reduced or delayed exposure to infections, particularly early in life, in these areas.
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Sexual selection theory predicts that signals reflecting the relative quality of individuals should be used in mate choice. Females could base their choice of copulation partners on male secondary sexual traits that honestly signal male age, as predicted by the age-based indicator mechanism. Studies have shown that female blue tits prefer older males and that aspects of dawn song reflect male quality, but it remains unknown whether dawn song characteristics correlate with male age. We compared dawn song characteristics of second-year (SY) and older (ASY) male blue tits (cross-sectional analysis), and tested for age-related changes within individuals (longitudinal analysis) and differential overwinter survival of SY males. We further investigated the relation between dawn song and paternity gain and loss. We found that ASY male blue tits began to sing earlier relative to sunrise than did SY males. This difference in the onset of dawn singing was due to age-related changes in individual performance rather than differential survival of individuals with varying expression of the trait. Males that began to sing earlier at dawn had more mating partners, and were more likely to gain extrapair paternity. Our findings suggest that the onset of dawn song can provide a simple mechanism for females to assess the relative quality of their mate and of neighbouring males. We propose that females use the onset of singing as a cue for their choice of extrapair partners. (c) 2006 The Association for the Study of Animal Behaviour. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Aims: To evaluate the role of novel biomarkers in early detection of acute myocardial infarction (MI) in patients admitted with acute chest pain.
Methods and results: A prospective study of 664 patients presenting to two coronary care units with chest pain was conducted over 3 years from 2003. Patients were assessed on admission: clinical characteristics, ECG (electrocardiogram), renal function, cardiac troponin T (cTnT), heart fatty acid binding protein (H-FABP), glycogen phosphorylase-BB, NT-pro-brain natriuretic peptide, D-dimer, hsCRP (high sensitivity C-reactive protein), myeloperoxidase, matrix metalloproteinase-9, pregnancy associated plasma protein-A, soluble CD40 ligand. A =12 h cTnT sample was also obtained. MI was defined as cTnT = 0.03 µg/L. In patients presenting <4 h of symptom onset, sensitivity of H-FABP for MI was significantly higher than admission cTnT (73 vs. 55%; P = 0.043). Specificity of H-FABP was 71%. None of the other biomarkers challenged cTnT. Combined use of H-FABP and cTnT (either one elevated initially) significantly improved the sensitivities of H-FABP or cTnT (85%; P = 0.004). This combined approach also improved the negative predictive value, negative likelihood ratio, and the risk ratio.
Conclusion: Assessment of H-FABP within the first 4 h of symptoms is superior to cTnT for detection of MI, and is a useful additional biomarker for patients with acute chest pain.
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Measles virus (MV) is highly infectious, and has long been thought to enter the host by infecting epithelial cells of the respiratory tract. However, epithelial cells do not express signaling lymphocyte activation molecule (CD150), which is the high-affinity cellular receptor for wild-type MV strains. We have generated a new recombinant MV strain expressing enhanced green fluorescent protein (EGFP), based on a wild-type genotype B3 virus isolate from Khartoum, Sudan (KS). Cynomolgus macaques were infected with a high dose of rMV(KS)EGFP by aerosol inhalation to ensure that the virus could reach the full range of potential target cells throughout the entire respiratory tract. Animals were euthanized 2, 3, 4 or 5 days post-infection (d.p.i., n?=?3 per time point) and infected (EGFP(+)) cells were identified at all four time points, albeit at low levels 2 and 3 d.p.i. At these earliest time points, MV-infected cells were exclusively detected in the lungs by fluorescence microscopy, histopathology and/or virus isolation from broncho-alveolar lavage cells. On 2 d.p.i., EGFP(+) cells were phenotypically typed as large mononuclear cells present in the alveolar lumen or lining the alveolar epithelium. One to two days later, larger clusters of MV-infected cells were detected in bronchus-associated lymphoid tissue (BALT) and in the tracheo-bronchial lymph nodes. From 4 d.p.i. onward, MV-infected cells were detected in peripheral blood and various lymphoid tissues. In spite of the possibility for the aerosolized virus to infect cells and lymphoid tissues of the upper respiratory tract, MV-infected cells were not detected in either the tonsils or the adenoids until after onset of viremia. These data strongly suggest that in our model MV entered the host at the alveolar level by infecting macrophages or dendritic cells, which traffic the virus to BALT or regional lymph nodes, resulting in local amplification and subsequent systemic dissemination by viremia.
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Reproductive performance in the high-yielding dairy cow has severely decreased in the last 40 yr. The aim of this study was to compare the effectiveness of 4 nutritional strategies in improving the reproductive performance of high-yielding dairy cows. It was hypothesized that offering cows a high-starch ration in early lactation would enhance the onset of luteal activity, and that decreasing the severity of negative energy balance in the early postcalving period would improve reproductive parameters. Nutritional regimens aimed at improving fertility were applied to 96 Holstein-Friesian dairy animals. Upon calving, animals were allocated in a balanced manner to one of 4 dietary treatments. Primiparous animals were balanced according to live weight, body condition score and calving date. Multiparous animals were balanced according to parity, previous lactation milk yield, liveweight, body condition score and calving date. Treatment 1 was based on an industry best practice diet (control) to contain 170 g of crude protein/kg of dry matter. Treatment 2 was an individual cow feeding strategy, whereby the energy balance (EB) of individual animals was managed so as to achieve a predetermined target daily EB profile (+/- 10 MJ/d). Treatment 3 was a high-starch/high-fat combination treatment, whereby an insulinogenic (high-starch) diet was offered in early lactation to encourage cyclicity and followed by a lipogenic (low-starch, high-fat) diet to promote embryo development. Treatment 4 was a low-protein diet, containing 140 g of crude protein/kg of dry matter, supplemented with protected methionine at an inclusion level of 40 g per animal per day. The nutritional strategies implemented in this study had no statistically significant effects on cow fertility measures, which included the onset of luteal activity, conception rate, in-calf rate, and the incidence of atypical cycles. The individual cow feeding strategy improved EB in early lactation but had no benefit on conception rate to first insemination. However, conception rate to second insemination, 100-d pregnancy rate (from the commencement of breeding), and overall pregnancy rate tended to be higher in this group. The high-starch/high-fat treatment tended to decrease the proportion of delayed ovulations and increase the proportion of animals cycling by d 50 postcalving. Animals that failed to conceive to first insemination had a significantly longer luteal phase in the first cycle postpartum and a longer inter-ovulatory interval in the second cycle postpartum. With regards to estrous behavior, results indicate that as the size of the sexually active group increased, the intensity of estrus and the expression of mounting or attempting to mount another cow also increased. Furthermore, cows that became pregnant displayed more intense estrous behavior than cows that failed to become pregnant.
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A study combining high resolution mass spectrometry (liquid chromatography-quadrupole time-of-flight-mass spectrometry, UPLC-QTof-MS) and chemometrics for the analysis of post-mortem brain tissue from subjects with Alzheimer’s disease (AD) (n = 15) and healthy age-matched controls (n = 15) was undertaken. The huge potential of this metabolomics approach for distinguishing AD cases is underlined by the correct prediction of disease status in 94–97% of cases. Predictive power was confirmed in a blind test set of 60 samples, reaching 100% diagnostic accuracy. The approach also indicated compounds significantly altered in concentration following the onset of human AD. Using orthogonal partial least-squares discriminant analysis (OPLS-DA), a multivariate model was created for both modes of acquisition explaining the maximum amount of variation between sample groups (Positive Mode-R2 = 97%; Q2 = 93%; root mean squared error of validation (RMSEV) = 13%; Negative Mode-R2 = 99%; Q2 = 92%; RMSEV = 15%). In brain extracts, 1264 and 1457 ions of interest were detected for the different modes of acquisition (positive and negative, respectively). Incorporation of gender into the model increased predictive accuracy and decreased RMSEV values. High resolution UPLC-QTof-MS has not previously been employed to biochemically profile post-mortem brain tissue, and the novel methods described and validated herein prove its potential for making new discoveries related to the etiology, pathophysiology, and treatment of degenerative brain disorders.
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Whilst data recognise both myeloid cell accumulation during choroidal neovascularisation (CNV) as well as complement activation, none of the data has presented a clear explanation for the angiogenic drive that promotes pathological angiogenesis. One possibility that is a pre-eminent drive is a specific and early conditioning and activation of the myeloid cell infiltrate. Using a laser-induced CNV murine model, we have identified that disruption of retinal pigment epithelium (RPE) and Bruch's membrane resulted in an early recruitment of macrophages derived from monocytes and microglia, prior to angiogenesis and contemporaneous with lesional complement activation. Early recruited CD11b(+) cells expressed a definitive gene signature of selective inflammatory mediators particularly a pronounced Arg-1 expression. Accumulating macrophages from retina and peripheral blood were activated at the site of injury, displaying enhanced VEGF expression, and notably prior to exaggerated VEGF expression from RPE, or earliest stages of angiogenesis. All of these initial events, including distinct VEGF (+) Arg-1(+) myeloid cells, subsided when CNV was established and at the time RPE-VEGF expression was maximal. Depletion of inflammatory CCR2-positive monocytes confirmed origin of infiltrating monocyte Arg-1 expression, as following depletion Arg-1 signal was lost and CNV suppressed. Furthermore, our in vitro data supported a myeloid cell uptake of damaged RPE or its derivatives as a mechanism generating VEGF (+) Arg-1(+) phenotype in vivo. Our results reveal a potential early driver initiating angiogenesis via myeloid-derived VEGF drive following uptake of damaged RPE and deliver an explanation of why CNV develops during any of the stages of macular degeneration and can be explored further for therapeutic gain.
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In the deglacial sequence of the largest end moraine system of the Italian Alps, we focused on the latest culmination of the Last Glacial Maximum, before a sudden downwasting of the piedmontane lobe occupying the modern lake basin. We obtained a robust chronology for this culmination and for the subsequent deglacial history by cross-radiocarbon dating of a proximal fluvioglacial plain and of a deglacial continuous lake sedimentation. We used reworked dinocysts to locate sources of glacial abrasion and to mark the input of glacial meltwater until depletion. The palynological record from postglacial lake sediments provided the first vegetation chronosequence directly reacting to the early Lateglacial withdrawal so far documented in the Alps.
Glacier collapse occurred soon after 17.46 +/- 0.2 ka cal BP, which is, the Manerba advance culmination. Basin deglaciation of several overdeepened foreland piedmont lakes on southern and northern sides of the Alps appears to be synchronous at millennial scale and near-synchronous with large-scale glacial retreat at global scale. The pioneering succession shows a first afforestation step at a median modeled age of 64 years after deglaciation, while rapid tree growth lagged 7 centuries. Between 16.4 +/- 0.16 and 15.5 +/- 0.16 ka cal BP, a regressive phase interrupted forest growth marking a Lateglacial phase of continental-dry climate predating GI-1. This event, spanning the most advanced phases of North-Atlantic H1, is consistently radiocarbon-framed at three deglacial lake records so far investigated on the Italian side of the Alps. Relationships with the Gschnitz stadial from the Alpine record of Lateglacial advances are discussed
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Criminology has witnessed a growth of interest in the later stages of criminal careers with less attention given to providing an understanding of the onset of offending which goes beyond identifying the precipitative or ‘risk’ factors. Drawing on findings from a study of young people’s offending careers in Ireland, this article provides a contextualized understanding of the onset of crime located in young people’s biographical experiences and transition through youth more specifically. It focuses on one particular dimension of this process, suggesting that early offending can be understood as emerging in the context of strained leisure careers. The findings also highlight the close interaction between the development of young people’s leisure careers and their experiences of the local neighbourhood and social networks. It argues that responses to the early stages of youth offending must widen their focus from the individual to incorporate an understanding of broader socio-economic and cultural contexts.
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Tephrochronological age models and 48 14C age determinations on molluscs and foraminifera (planktonic and benthic) are applied for the calculation of marine 14C reservoir age variability during a time period covering the Heinrich event H1 to early Holocene (16–9 cal kyr BP). Our data source consists of four high-resolution marine sediment cores (HM107-04, HM107-05, MD99-2271, MD99-2275) from the North Icelandic shelf. The marine reservoir age (ΔR) is found to be extremely variable, ranging from 385 to 1065 14C years. Extreme ΔR values occur at the end of H1, with values around 1000 14C years (~15 cal kyr BP), probably due to reduced northward flow of well-ventilated subtropical surface waters and a southward expansion of polar waters, as well as an expansion of sea ice limiting air-sea gas exchange. With the onset of the Bølling-Allerød interstadial, the ΔR values decrease towards 0 14C years suggesting a more vigorous North Atlantic Current and an active meridional overturning circulation system. During the Younger Dryas stadial, ΔR values are consistently around 700 14C years suggesting e renewed expansion of polar waters and a weakened meridional overtuning circulation. Interestingly, ΔR values remain high (~200 14C years) at the onset of the Holocene suggesting continued high influence of polar waters. Subsequently, ΔR values rapidly decrease to ~¬ 250 14C years around 11 cal kyr BP, indicating increased air-sea CO2 exchange with the coeval atmosphere. The ΔR values average around 0 14C years from around 10.5 to 9.0 cal kyr BP.
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PURPOSE: To assess the sensitivity and specificity of models predicting myopia onset among ethnically Chinese children. METHODS: Visual acuity, height, weight, biometry (A-scan, keratometry), and refractive error were assessed at baseline and 3 years later using the same equipment and protocol in primary schools in Xiamen (China) and Singapore. A regression model predicting the onset of myopia < -0.75 diopters (D) after 3 years in either eye among Xiamen children was validated with Singapore data. RESULTS: Baseline data were collected from 236 Xiamen children (mean age, 7.82 ± 0.63 years) and from 1979 predominantly Chinese children in Singapore (7.83 ± 0.84 years). Singapore children were significantly taller and heavier, and had more myopia (31.4% vs. 6.36% < -0.75 D in either eye, P < 0.001) and longer mean axial length. Three-year follow-up was available for 80.0% of Xiamen children and 83.1% in Singapore. For Xiamen, the area under the receiver-operator curve (AUC) in a model including ocular biometry, height, weight, and presenting visual acuity was 0.974 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.945-0.997). In Singapore, the same model achieved sensitivity, specificity, and positive predictive value of 0.844, 0.650, and 0.669, with an AUC of 0.815 (95% CI, 0.791-0.839). CONCLUSIONS: Accuracy in predicting myopia onset based on simple measurements may be sufficient to make targeted early intervention practical in settings such as Singapore with high myopia prevalence. Models based on cohorts with a greater prevalence of high myopia than that in Xiamen could be used to assess accuracy of models predicting more severe forms of myopia.