Disater Risk Management Disparity in the Caribbean: Evidence from Barbados, Dominican Republic, Jamaica and Trinidad and Tobago

This study on risk and disaster management capacities of four Caribbean countries: Barbados, the Dominican Republic, Jamaica, and Trinidad and Tobago, examines three main dimensions: 1) the impact of natural disasters from 1900 to 2010 (number of events, number of people killed, total number affected, and damage in US$); 2) institutional assessments of disaster risk management disparity; and 3) the 2010 Inter-American Bank for Development (IADB) Disaster Risk and Risk Management indicators for the countries under study. The results show high consistency among the different sources examined, pointing out the need to extend the IADB measurements to the rest of the Caribbean countries. Indexes and indicators constitute a comparison measure vis-à-vis existing benchmarks in order to anticipate a capacity to deal with adverse events and their consequences; however, the indexes and indicators could only be tested against the occurrence of a real event. Therefore, the need exists to establish a sustainable and comprehensive evaluation system after important disasters to assess a country’s performance, verify the indicators, and gain feedback on measurement systems and methodologies. There is diversity in emergency and preparedness for disasters in the four countries under study. The nature of the event (hurricanes, earthquakes, floods, and seismic activity), especially its frequency and the intensity of the damage experienced, is related to how each has designed its risk and disaster management policies and programs to face natural disasters. Vulnerabilities to disaster risks have been increasing, among other factors, because of uncontrolled urbanization, demographic density and poverty increase, social and economic marginalization, and lack of building code enforcement. The four countries under study have shown improvements in risk management capabilities, yet they are far from being completed prepared. Barbados’ risk management performance is superior, in comparison, to the majority of the countries of the region. However, is still far in achieving high performance levels and sustainability in risk management, primarily when it has the highest gap between potential macroeconomic and financial losses and the ability to face them. The Dominican Republic has shown steady risk performance up to 2008, but two remaining areas for improvement are hazard monitoring and early warning systems. Jamaica has made uneven advances between 1990 and 2008, requiring significant improvements to achieve high performance levels and sustainability in risk management, as well as macroeconomic mitigation infrastructure. Trinidad and Tobago has the lowest risk management score of the 15 countries in the Latin American and Caribbean region as assessed by the IADB study in 2010, yet it has experienced an important vulnerability reduction. In sum, the results confirmed the high disaster risk management disparity in the Caribbean region.

A State and Territorial Survey Regarding Utilization of Environmental Health Shelter Assessments during Disasters, and a Secondary Analysis of Available Shelter Assessment Data

Disasters are complex events characterized by damage to key infrastructure and population displacements into disaster shelters. Assessing the living environment in shelters during disasters is a crucial health security concern. Until now, jurisdictional knowledge and preparedness on those assessment methods, or deficiencies found in shelters is limited. A cross-sectional survey (STUSA survey) ascertained knowledge and preparedness for those assessments in all 50 states, DC, and 5 US territories. Descriptive analysis of overall knowledge and preparedness was performed. Fisher’s exact statistics analyzed differences between two groups: jurisdiction type and population size. Two logistic regression models analyzed earthquakes and hurricane risks as predictors of knowledge and preparedness. A convenience sample of state shelter assessments records (n=116) was analyzed to describe environmental health deficiencies found during selected events. Overall, 55 (98%) of jurisdictions responded (states and territories) and appeared to be knowledgeable of these assessments (states 92%, territories 100%, p = 1.000), and engaged in disaster planning with shelter partners (states 96%, territories 83%, p = 0.564). Few had shelter assessment procedures (states 53%, territories 50%, p = 1.000); or training in disaster shelter assessments (states 41%, 60% territories, p = 0.638). Knowledge or preparedness was not predicted by disaster risks, population size, and jurisdiction type in neither model. Knowledge: hurricane (Adjusted OR 0.69, 95% C.I. 0.06-7.88); earthquake (OR 0.82, 95% C.I. 0.17-4.06); and both risks (OR 1.44, 95% C.I. 0.24-8.63); preparedness model: hurricane (OR 1.91, 95% C.I. 0.06-20.69); earthquake (OR 0.47, 95% C.I. 0.7-3.17); and both risks (OR 0.50, 95% C.I. 0.06-3.94). Environmental health deficiencies documented in shelter assessments occurred mostly in: sanitation (30%); facility (17%); food (15%); and sleeping areas (12%); and during ice storms and tornadoes. More research is needed in the area of environmental health assessments of disaster shelters, particularly, in those areas that may provide better insight into the living environment of all shelter occupants and potential effects in disaster morbidity and mortality. Also, to evaluate the effectiveness and usefulness of these assessments methods and the data available on environmental health deficiencies in risk management to protect those at greater risk in shelter facilities during disasters.

Metodologia para implantação de um sistema de disposição de rejeitos em minério de ferro na região do semiárido: estudo de caso

Tailings dams are structures that aims to retain the solid waste and water from mining processes. Its analysis and planning begins with searching of location for deployment, step on which to bind all kinds of variables that directly or indirectly influence the work, such as geological, hydrological, tectonic, topographic, geotechnical, environmental, social characteristics, evaluation security risks, among others. Thus, this paper aims to present a study on the most appropriate and secure type of busbar to design a layout structure of iron ore tailings, taking into account all the above mentioned variables. The case study involves the assessment of sites for location of dams of tailings disposal beneficiation of iron mine to be built in Bonito, in the municipality of Jucurutu in Seridó Potiguar. For site selection among alternatives, various aspects of the current state of the art were considered, one that causes the least environmental impact, low cost investment, adding value to the product and especially the safety of the implanted structure mitigates the concern about induced earthquakes as a result of liquefaction wastes somatized by dams in the region, as the tilling of Mina Bonito is located practically in the hydraulic basin dam Armando Ribeiro in environmental protection (APA). The methodology compares induced by dams in the semiarid region with the characteristics of the waste disposal and sterile seismicity, taking into account the enhancement of liquefaction by the action of seismicity in the Mina Bonito region. With the fulcrum in the methodology, we indicated the best busbar type for disposal of tailings from iron ore or combination of them, to be designed and built in semiarid particularly for Mina Bonito. Also presents a number of possible uses for the tailings and in engineering activities, which may cause processing to the common good.

Estudo da estrutura subsuperficial da província Borborema com correlação de ruído sísmico

Ambient seismic noise has traditionally been considered as an unwanted perturbation in seismic data acquisition that "contaminates" the clean recording of earthquakes. Over the last decade, however, it has been demonstrated that consistent information about the subsurface structure can be extracted from cross-correlation of ambient seismic noise. In this context, the rules are reversed: the ambient seismic noise becomes the desired seismic signal, while earthquakes become the unwanted perturbation that needs to be removed. At periods lower than 30 s, the spectrum of ambient seismic noise is dominated by microseism, which originates from distant atmospheric perturbations over the oceans. The microsseism is the most continuous seismic signal and can be classified as primary – when observed in the range 10-20 s – and secondary – when observed in the range 5-10 s. The Green‘s function of the propagating medium between two receivers (seismic stations) can be reconstructed by cross-correlating seismic noise simultaneously recorded at the receivers. The reconstruction of the Green‘s function is generally proportional to the surface-wave portion of the seismic wavefield, as microsseismic energy travels mostly as surface-waves. In this work, 194 Green‘s functions obtained from stacking of one month of daily cross-correlations of ambient seismic noise recorded in the vertical component of several pairs of broadband seismic stations in Northeast Brazil are presented. The daily cross-correlations were stacked using a timefrequency, phase-weighted scheme that enhances weak coherent signals by reducing incoherent noise. The cross-correlations show that, as expected, the emerged signal is dominated by Rayleigh waves, with dispersion velocities being reliably measured for periods ranging between 5 and 20 s. Both permanent stations from a monitoring seismic network and temporary stations from past passive experiments in the region are considered, resulting in a combined network of 33 stations separated by distances between 60 and 1311 km, approximately. The Rayleigh-wave, dispersion velocity measurements are then used to develop tomographic images of group velocity variation for the Borborema Province of Northeast Brazil. The tomographic maps allow to satisfactorily map buried structural features in the region. At short periods (~5 s) the images reflect shallow crustal structure, clearly delineating intra-continental and marginal sedimentary basins, as well as portions of important shear zones traversing the Borborema Province. At longer periods (10 – 20 s) the images are sensitive to deeper structure in the upper crust, and most of the shallower anomalies fade away. Interestingly, some of them do persist. The deep anomalies do not correlate with either the location of Cenozoic volcanism and uplift - which marked the evolution of the Borborema Province in the Cenozoic - or available maps of surface heat-flow, and the origin of the deep anomalies remains enigmatic.

Utilização de sismos regionais para a determinação de um modelo 1D de velocidades da onda P na Província Borborema - NE do Brasil

In this work it was performed a study to obtain parameters for an 1D regional velocity model for the Borborema Province, NE Brazil. It was used earthquakes occurred between 2001 and 2013 with magnitude greater than 2.9 mb either from epicentres determined from local seismic networks or by back azimuth determination, when possible. We chose seven events which occurred in the main seismic areas in the Borborema Province. The selected events were recorded in up to 74 seismic stations from the following networks: RSISNE, INCT-ET, João Câmara – RN, São Rafael – RN, Caruaru - PE, São Caetano - PE, Castanhão - CE, Santana do Acarau - CE, Taipu – RN e Sobral – CE, and the RCBR (IRIS/USGS—GSN). For the determination of the model parameters were inverted via a travel-time table and its fit. These model parameters were compared with other known model (global and regional) and have improved the epicentral determination. This final set of parameters model, we called MBB is laterally homogeneous with an upper crust at 11,45 km depth and total crustal thickness of 33,9 km. The P-wave velocity in the upper crust was estimated at 6.0 km/s and 6.64 km/s for it lower part. The P-wave velocity in the upper mantle we estimated at 8.21 km/s with an VP/VS ratio of approximately 1.74.

Utilização de sismos regionais para a determinação de um modelo 1D de velocidades da onda P na Província Borborema - NE do Brasil

In this work it was performed a study to obtain parameters for an 1D regional velocity model for the Borborema Province, NE Brazil. It was used earthquakes occurred between 2001 and 2013 with magnitude greater than 2.9 mb either from epicentres determined from local seismic networks or by back azimuth determination, when possible. We chose seven events which occurred in the main seismic areas in the Borborema Province. The selected events were recorded in up to 74 seismic stations from the following networks: RSISNE, INCT-ET, João Câmara – RN, São Rafael – RN, Caruaru - PE, São Caetano - PE, Castanhão - CE, Santana do Acarau - CE, Taipu – RN e Sobral – CE, and the RCBR (IRIS/USGS—GSN). For the determination of the model parameters were inverted via a travel-time table and its fit. These model parameters were compared with other known model (global and regional) and have improved the epicentral determination. This final set of parameters model, we called MBB is laterally homogeneous with an upper crust at 11,45 km depth and total crustal thickness of 33,9 km. The P-wave velocity in the upper crust was estimated at 6.0 km/s and 6.64 km/s for it lower part. The P-wave velocity in the upper mantle we estimated at 8.21 km/s with an VP/VS ratio of approximately 1.74.

Medium change monitoring using ambient seismic noise and coda wave interferometry: examples from intraplate NE Brazil and the Mid-Atlantic Ridge

This thesis presents and discusses the results of ambient seismic noise correlation for two different environments: intraplate and Mid-Atlantic Ridge. The coda wave interferometry method has also been tested for the intraplate data. Ambient noise correlation is a method that allows to retrieve the structural response between two receivers from ambient noise records, as if one of the station was a virtual source. It has been largely used in seismology to image the subsurface and to monitor structural changes associated mostly with volcanic eruptions and large earthquakes. In the intraplate study, we were able to detect localized structural changes related to a small earthquake swarm, which main event is mR 3.7, North-East of Brazil. We also showed that the 1-bit normalization and spectral whitening result on the loss of waveform details and that the phase auto-correlation, which is amplitude unbiased, seems to be more sensitive and robust for our analysis of a small earthquake swarm. The analysis of 6 months of data using cross-correlations detect clear medium changes soon after the main event while the auto-correlations detect changes essentially after 1 month. It could be explained by fluid pressure redistribution which can be initiated by hydromechanical changes and opened path ways to shallower depth levels due to later occurring earthquakes. In the Mid-Atlantic Ridge study, we investigate structural changes associated with a mb 4.9 earthquake in the region of the Saint Paul transform fault. The data have been recorded by a single broadband seismic station located at less than 200 km from the Mid-Atlantic ridge. The results of the phase auto-correlation for a 5-month period, show a strong co-seismic medium change followed by a relatively fast post-seismic recovery. This medium change is likely related to the damages caused by the earthquake’s ground shaking. The healing process (filling of the new cracks) that lasted 60 days can be decomposed in two phases, a fast recovery (70% in ~30 days) in the early post-seismic stage and a relatively slow recovery later (30% in ~30 days). In the coda wave interferometry study, we monitor temporal changes of the subsurface caused by the small intraplate earthquake swarm mentioned previously. The method was first validated with synthetics data. We were able to detect a change of 2.5% in the source position and a 15% decrease of the scatterers’ amount. Then, from the real data, we observed a rapid decorrelation of the seismic coda after the mR 3.7 seismic event. This indicates a rapid change of the subsurface in the fault’s region induced by the earthquake.

Medium change monitoring using ambient seismic noise and coda wave interferometry: examples from intraplate NE Brazil and the Mid-Atlantic Ridge

This thesis presents and discusses the results of ambient seismic noise correlation for two different environments: intraplate and Mid-Atlantic Ridge. The coda wave interferometry method has also been tested for the intraplate data. Ambient noise correlation is a method that allows to retrieve the structural response between two receivers from ambient noise records, as if one of the station was a virtual source. It has been largely used in seismology to image the subsurface and to monitor structural changes associated mostly with volcanic eruptions and large earthquakes. In the intraplate study, we were able to detect localized structural changes related to a small earthquake swarm, which main event is mR 3.7, North-East of Brazil. We also showed that the 1-bit normalization and spectral whitening result on the loss of waveform details and that the phase auto-correlation, which is amplitude unbiased, seems to be more sensitive and robust for our analysis of a small earthquake swarm. The analysis of 6 months of data using cross-correlations detect clear medium changes soon after the main event while the auto-correlations detect changes essentially after 1 month. It could be explained by fluid pressure redistribution which can be initiated by hydromechanical changes and opened path ways to shallower depth levels due to later occurring earthquakes. In the Mid-Atlantic Ridge study, we investigate structural changes associated with a mb 4.9 earthquake in the region of the Saint Paul transform fault. The data have been recorded by a single broadband seismic station located at less than 200 km from the Mid-Atlantic ridge. The results of the phase auto-correlation for a 5-month period, show a strong co-seismic medium change followed by a relatively fast post-seismic recovery. This medium change is likely related to the damages caused by the earthquake’s ground shaking. The healing process (filling of the new cracks) that lasted 60 days can be decomposed in two phases, a fast recovery (70% in ~30 days) in the early post-seismic stage and a relatively slow recovery later (30% in ~30 days). In the coda wave interferometry study, we monitor temporal changes of the subsurface caused by the small intraplate earthquake swarm mentioned previously. The method was first validated with synthetics data. We were able to detect a change of 2.5% in the source position and a 15% decrease of the scatterers’ amount. Then, from the real data, we observed a rapid decorrelation of the seismic coda after the mR 3.7 seismic event. This indicates a rapid change of the subsurface in the fault’s region induced by the earthquake.

Estudo da sismicidade na barragem do Açu no período de 2012 a 2013

The seismic activity in the Northeastern of Brazil has been a constant target of study, since it is the most active region of the country. However, some areas have their earthquakes related to human action, what means they are induced. The Açu dam is a classic example of reservoir-induced seismicity and it has been the subject of several studies. Recently, after a considerable period of inactivity, the LabSis / UFRN recorded events related to the dam, which led to the installation of a network around the reservoir. From the data provided by this network, it was observed that the seismic activity is related to a new epicental area inside the lake. The epicentral parameters and the focal mechanism were determined. It was found that the events were related to the reactivation of a basement structure in a new seismogenic subvertical fault with NE-SW-striking subparallel to the São Rafael Fault. These results were used in the preparation of a scientific paper, which discussed the relationship between this seismicity with the geology of the region and with the reservoir water level. The paper showed that the diffusion of pore pressure was the main mechanism that controlled the triggering of the induced seismicity at the reservoir.

Estudo da sismicidade na barragem do Açu no período de 2012 a 2013

The seismic activity in the Northeastern of Brazil has been a constant target of study, since it is the most active region of the country. However, some areas have their earthquakes related to human action, what means they are induced. The Açu dam is a classic example of reservoir-induced seismicity and it has been the subject of several studies. Recently, after a considerable period of inactivity, the LabSis / UFRN recorded events related to the dam, which led to the installation of a network around the reservoir. From the data provided by this network, it was observed that the seismic activity is related to a new epicental area inside the lake. The epicentral parameters and the focal mechanism were determined. It was found that the events were related to the reactivation of a basement structure in a new seismogenic subvertical fault with NE-SW-striking subparallel to the São Rafael Fault. These results were used in the preparation of a scientific paper, which discussed the relationship between this seismicity with the geology of the region and with the reservoir water level. The paper showed that the diffusion of pore pressure was the main mechanism that controlled the triggering of the induced seismicity at the reservoir.

Semi-engineered earthquake-resistant structures: one-storey buildings built up with gabion-box walls

This thesis studies the static and seismic behavior of simple structures made with gabion box walls. The analysis was performed considering a one-story building with standard dimensions in plan (6m x 5m) and a lightweight timber roof. The main focus of the present investigation is to find the principals aspects of the seismic behavior of a one story building made with gabion box walls, in order to prevent a failure due to seismic actions and in this way help to reduce the seismic risk of developing countries where this natural disaster have a significant intensity. Regarding the gabion box wall, it has been performed some calculations and analysis in order to understand the static and dynamic behavior. From the static point of view, it has been performed a verification of the normal stress computing the normal stress that arrives at the base of the gabion wall and the corresponding capacity of the ground. Moreover, regarding the seismic analysis, it has been studied the in-plane and out-of-plane behavior. The most critical aspect was discovered to be the out-of-plane behavior, for which have been developed models considering the “rigid- no tension model” for masonry, finding a kinematically admissible multiplier that will create a collapse mechanism for the structure. Furthermore, it has been performed a FEM and DEM models to find the maximum displacement at the center of the wall, maximum tension stresses needed for calculating the steel connectors for joining consecutive gabions and the dimensions (length of the wall and distance between orthogonal walls or buttresses) of a geometrical configuration for the standard modulus of the structure, in order to ensure an adequate safety margin for earthquakes with a PGA around 0.4-0.5g. Using the results obtained before, it has been created some rules of thumb, that have to be satisfy in order to ensure a good behavior of these structure.

Seismic Retrofitting of a Historic Structure with Limited Construction Documentation

Many buildings constructed during the middle of the 20th century were constructed with criteria that fall short of current requirements. Although shortcomings are possible in all aspects of the design, the inadequacies in terms of seismic design present a more pressing issue to human life. This risk has been seen in various earthquakes that have struck Italy recently, and subsequently, the codes have been altered to account for this underestimated danger. Structures built after these changes remain at risk and must be retrofitted depending on their use. This report centers around the Giovanni Michelucci Institute of Mathematics at the University of Bologna and the work required to modify the building so that it can withstand 60% of the current design requirements. The goal of this particular report is to verify the previous reports written in Italian and present an accurate analysis along with intervention suggestions for this particular building. The work began with an investigation into the previous sources and work to find out how the structure had been interpreted. After understanding the building, corrections were made where required, and the failing elements were organized graphically to more easily show where the building needed the most work. Once the critical zones were mapped, remediation techniques were tested on the top floor, and the modeling techniques and effects of the interventions were presented to assist in further work on the structure.

Event layer chronology from Lake Suigetsu (Japan, SG06 Project) for the last 40 kyr

Event layers in lake sediments are indicators of past extreme events, mostly the results of floods or earthquakes. Detailed characterisation of the layers allows the discrimination of the sedimentation processes involved, such as surface runoff, landslides or subaqueous slope failures. These processes can then be interpreted in terms of their triggering mechanisms. Here we present a 40 kyr event layer chronology from Lake Suigetsu, Japan. The event layers were characterised using a multi-proxy approach, employing light microscopy and µXRF for microfacies analysis. The vast majority of event layers in Lake Suigetsu was produced by flood events (362 out of 369), allowing the construction of the first long-term, quantitative (with respect to recurrence) and well dated flood chronology from the region. The flood layer frequency shows a high variability over the last 40 kyr, and it appears that extreme precipitation events were decoupled from the average long-term precipitation. For instance, the flood layer frequency is highest in the Glacial at around 25 kyr BP, at which time Japan was experiencing a generally cold and dry climate. Other cold episodes, such as Heinrich Event 1 or the Late Glacial stadial, show a low flood layer frequency. Both observations together exclude a simple, straightforward relationship with average precipitation and temperature. We argue that, especially during Glacial times, changes in typhoon genesis/typhoon tracks are the most likely control on the flood layer frequency, rather than changes in the monsoon front or snow melts. Spectral analysis of the flood chronology revealed periodic variations on centennial and millennial time scales, with 220 yr, 450 yr and a 2000 yr cyclicity most pronounced. However, the flood layer frequency appears to have not only been influenced by climate changes, but also by changes in erosion rates due to, for instance, earthquakes.

Activity concentrations of radionuclides in 5 short cores taken in 2007-2008 measured by ICP-MS and HPGe gamma spectrometry

Natural radionuclides and man-made 137Cs were analyzed in five short sediment cores taken in northern part of the Gulf of Eilat (Gulf of Aqaba) in order to provide information on sedimentation and mixing rates and sediment sources. The maximum estimates of sedimentation rates based on excess 210Pb were found to vary between 0.105 ± 0.020 and 0.35 ± 0.23 cm · year**-1. Even the lowest estimates are significantly higher than those expected from dust deposition, suggesting other sources and processes being responsible for most of the allochthonous material accumulation, including periodical floods following heavy rain events, internal erosion or triggers, like earthquakes. In 137Cs depth profiles no 1963 related nuclear weapon test maxima were found; instead, the activities decrease monotonically, suggesting that a major process leading to radionuclides' depth distribution might be mixing. The mixing rates calculated from 137Cs, excess 210Pb and excess 228Th reach values up to 2.18 ± 0.69 cm**2 · year**-1.

(Table 1) Experimental details and results

Factor-of-safety analyses of submarine slope failure depend critically on the shear strength of the slope material, which is often evaluated with residual strength values and for normally consolidated sediments. Here, we report on direct measurements of both shear strength and cohesion for a quartz-clay mixture over a wide range of overconsolidation ratios (OCRs). For normally consolidated sediment at low stresses, cohesion is the dominant source of shear strength compared to friction. Significant increases in peak shear strength occur for OCR > 4, and the primary source of this strength increase is due to increased cohesion, rather than friction. The proportion of added shear strength due to cohesion depends log-linearly on the OCR. We show that at shallow depths where OCR values can be high, overconsolidated clays can be stronger than pure or nearly pure quartz sediments, which are cohesionless under near-surface conditions. Our data also suggest that areas which have experienced significant unroofing due to previous mass movements are less likely to experience subsequent failure at shallow depths due to increased peak strength, and if failure occurs it is expected to be deeper where the OCR is lower. In seismically active areas, this is one potential explanation for the general observation of lower slope failure recurrence compared to rates expected from triggering due to local earthquakes.