Oil Market Modelling: A Comparative Analysis of Fundamental and Latent Factor Approaches

We formally compare fundamental factor and latent factor approaches to oil price modelling. Fundamental modelling has a long history in seeking to understand oil price movements, while latent factor modelling has a more recent and limited history, but has gained popularity in other financial markets. The two approaches, though competing, have not formally been compared as to effectiveness. For a range of short- medium- and long-dated WTI oil futures we test a recently proposed five-factor fundamental model and a Principal Component Analysis latent factor model. Our findings demonstrate that there is no discernible difference between the two techniques in a dynamic setting. We conclude that this infers some advantages in adopting the latent factor approach due to the difficulty in determining a well specified fundamental model.

Importance of risk factor management in diabetic patients and reduction in Stage B heart failure

BACKGROUND: A number of studies have demonstrated the presence of a diabetic cardiomyopathy, increasing the risk of heart failure development in this population. Improvements in present-day risk factor control may have modified the risk of diabetes-associated cardiomyopathy.

AIM: We sought to determine the contemporary impact of diabetes mellitus (DM) on the prevalence of cardiomyopathy in at-risk patients with and without adjustment for risk factor control.

DESIGN: A cross-sectional study in a population at risk for heart failure.

METHODS: Those with diabetes were compared to those with other cardiovascular risk factors, unmatched, matched for age and gender and then matched for age, gender, body mass index, systolic blood pressure and low density lipoprotein cholesterol.

RESULTS: In total, 1399 patients enrolled in the St Vincent's Screening to Prevent Heart Failure (STOP-HF) cohort were included. About 543 participants had an established history of DM. In the whole sample, Stage B heart failure (asymptomatic cardiomyopathy) was not found more frequently among the diabetic cohort compared to those without diabetes [113 (20.8%) vs. 154 (18.0%), P = 0.22], even when matched for age and gender. When controlling for these risk factors and risk factor control Stage B was found to be more prevalent in those with diabetes [88 (22.2%)] compared to those without diabetes [65 (16.4%), P = 0.048].

CONCLUSION: In this cohort of patients with established risk factors for Stage B heart failure superior risk factor management among the diabetic population appears to dilute the independent diabetic insult to left ventricular structure and function, underlining the importance and benefit of effective risk factor control in this population on cardiovascular outcomes.

Concerns and Expectations of Students Participating in Study Abroad Programs: Blogging to Reveal the Dynamic Student Voice

Study abroad programmes (SAP) have become increasingly popular with university students and within academia. They are often seen as an experiential opportunity to expand student learning and development, including increases in global, international, and intercultural competences. However, despite the increasing popularity of and participation in study abroad programmes, many student concerns and uncertainties remain. This research investigates initial pre-departure concerns and apprehensions of students undertaking a one-semester study abroad programme and uses these as context for an examination of violated expectations of students during their programme. The research uses interpretative phenomenological analysis to interpret data collected from regularly-updated blogs composed by students throughout their SAP experience. The process of using blogs to collect data is less formalised than many other approaches of interpretative phenomenological analysis, enabling ‘in the moment’ feedback during the SAP and lending greater depth to the understanding of student perceptions.

A generic strategy for dynamic load balancing of distributed memory parallel computational mechanics using unstructured meshes

A large class of computational problems are characterised by frequent synchronisation, and computational requirements which change as a function of time. When such a problem is solved on a message passing multiprocessor machine [5], the combination of these characteristics leads to system performance which deteriorate in time. As the communication performance of parallel hardware steadily improves so load balance becomes a dominant factor in obtaining high parallel efficiency. Performance can be improved with periodic redistribution of computational load; however, redistribution can sometimes be very costly. We study the issue of deciding when to invoke a global load re-balancing mechanism. Such a decision policy must actively weigh the costs of remapping against the performance benefits, and should be general enough to apply automatically to a wide range of computations. This paper discusses a generic strategy for Dynamic Load Balancing (DLB) in unstructured mesh computational mechanics applications. The strategy is intended to handle varying levels of load changes throughout the run. The major issues involved in a generic dynamic load balancing scheme will be investigated together with techniques to automate the implementation of a dynamic load balancing mechanism within the Computer Aided Parallelisation Tools (CAPTools) environment, which is a semi-automatic tool for parallelisation of mesh based FORTRAN codes.

Supervisão colaborativa para uma educação inclusiva : um estudo com professores do ensino regular

Este trabalho, desenvolvido por uma professora de educação especial no contexto onde exerce funções, resultou da vontade de aprofundar o conhecimento sobre as dinâmicas de trabalho entre os professores do Ensino Regular e entre estes e o professor de Educação Especial. Desta forma elaborámos um projeto de investigação com o propósito de aprofundar o conhecimento sobre estas dinâmicas, no âmbito de uma oficina de formação, dinamizada pela investigadora, realizada no contexto de trabalho dos participantes. Neste âmbito, foi proporcionado um conjunto de experiências vivenciadas em conjunto, procurando contribuir para novas perspetivas teóricas sobre o conhecimento, bem como o envolvimento dos participantes em situações empíricas que lhes permitissem aplicar esses conhecimentos na resolução de problemas concretos emergentes no seu contexto de trabalho. A estratégia formativa baseou-se na colaboração como factor de desenvolvimento e de aprendizagem, surgindo como relevante e necessário o envolvimento dos formandos em processos de investigação da própria prática. A formação, na modalidade de Oficina, foi promovida através do Centro de Formação da Instituição onde a escola, um estabelecimento de ensino particular e cooperativo, se integra. Neste âmbito foi acreditada pelo Conselho Científico-Pedagógico da Formação Contínua e envolveu dezasseis professores do 1.º, 2.º e 3.º ciclos do ensino básico. A formação desenvolveuse em duas fases - a primeira fase, constituída por 4 sessões, teve lugar entre maio e julho de 2011, e a segunda fase, igualmente constituída por 4 sessões, teve lugar de setembro a novembro de 2011, num total de 25 horas presenciais e 25 horas não presenciais. Trata-se de um estudo com uma dupla intencionalidade – formativa e investigativa – no qual se procura compreender (i) a relação entre as estratégias de formação e supervisão promovidas pela professora de educação especial e o desenvolvimento de dinâmicas de trabalho colaborativo entre os participantes (ii) e o impacto dessas dinâmicas no desenvolvimento profissional e nas suas práticas, tendo em vista a promoção de uma educação inclusiva. Configura-se como estudo de caso, na variante de multicaso apresentando, ainda, algumas características de investigação-ação. No âmbito deste estudo, utilizámos um conjunto diverso e complementar de procedimentos investigativos, nomeadamente, o inquérito por questionário aplicado a todos os participantes no início e no fim da oficina de formação; o inquérito por questionário de avaliação das sessões, tendo por base os objetivos do estudo; a entrevista semi-estruturada, realizada a quatro docentes do 1º CEB que constituem os subcasos e o portfolio reflexivo individual dos mesmos, os quais se constituem como estratégia de formação e de investigação. Recorreu-se, ainda, como fontes de informação secundária, ao Teaching portfolio do investigador, às videogravações das sessões de formação, aos registos em vídeo de alguns episódios relativos à intervenção dos formandos em sala de aula e aos projetos de investigação-ação, bem como aos dados recolhidos na entrevista dirigida ao Diretor do estabelecimento de educação e ensino, depois de concluído o programa de formação. Os resultados da análise parecem evidenciar a existência de dinâmicas colaborativas e um clima de inter-ajuda que caraterizou a interação ocorrida na formação, em torno de casos concretos, os quais tiveram um impacto significativo sobre o pensamento e a prática dos participantes. Todo o processo desenvolvido parece ter dado lugar à partilha de saberes e à procura conjunta de soluções para os problemas, tendo contribuído para que os professores passassem a ser mais interventivos, evidenciando novas aprendizagens e uma maior consciencialização do conceito de educação para todos e do que esta implica. Os resultados parecem ainda revelar o desenvolvimento de uma parceria estratégica entre os professores do ensino regular e a professora de educação especial, a qual passou a ser aceite como uma pessoa que pode ajudar a encontrar soluções para os problemas que surgem na sala de aula, de forma a garantir a inclusão de todos os alunos e não apenas dos que têm necessidades educativas especiais.

Insulin-Like Growth Factor-I (IGF-1), IGF-Binding Protein-3 (IGFBP-3) and mammographic features

Introduction. The IGF system has recently been shown to play an important role in the regulation of breast tumor cell proliferation. However, also breast density is currently considered as the strongest breast cancer risk factor. It is not yet clear whether these factors are interrelated and if and how they are influenced by menopausal status. The purpose of this study was to examine the possible effects of IGF-1 and IGFBP-3 and IGF-1/IGFBP-3 molar ratio on mammographic density stratified by menopausal status. Patients and methods. A group of 341 Italian women were interviewed to collect the following data: family history of breast cancer, reproductive and menstrual factors, breast biopsies, previous administration of hormonal contraceptive therapy, hormone replacement therapy (HRT) in menopause and lifestyle information. A blood sample was drawn for determination of IGF-1, IGFBP-3 levels. IGF-1/ IGFBP-3 molar ratio was then calculated. On the basis of recent mammograms the women were divided into two groups: dense breast (DB) and non-dense breast (NDB). Student’s t-test was employed to assess the association between breast density and plasma level of IGF-1, IGFBP-3 and molar ratio. To assess if this relationship was similar in subgroups of pre- and postmenopausal women, the study population was stratified by menopausal status and Student’s t-test was performed. Finally, multivariate analysis was employed to evaluate if there were confounding factors that might influence the relationship between growth factors and breast density. Results. The analysis of the relationship between mammographic density and plasma level of IGF-1, IGFBP-3 and IGF-1/ IGFBP-3 molar ratio showed that IGF-1 levels and molar ratio varied in the two groups resulting in higher mean values in the DB group (IGF-1: 109.6 versus 96.6 ng/ml; p= 0.001 and molar ratio 29.4 versus 25.5 ng/ml; p= 0.001) whereas IGFBP-3 showed similar values in both groups (DB and NDB). Analysis of plasma level of IGF-1, IGFBP-3 and IGF-1/IGFBP-3 molar ratio compared to breast density after stratification of the study population by menopausal status (premenopausal and postmenopausal) showed that there was no association between the plasma of growth factors and breast density, neither in premenopausal nor in postmenopausal patients. Multivariate analysis showed that only nulliparity, premenopausal status and body mass index (BMI) are determinants of breast density. Conclusions. Our study provides a strong evidence of a crude association between breast density and plasma levels of IGF-1 and molar ratio. On the basis of our results, it is reasonable to assume that the role of IGF-1 and molar ratio in the pathogenesis of breast cancer might be mediated through mammographic density. IGF-1 and molar ratio might thus increase the risk of cancer by increasing mammographic density.

Real-time analytics on large dynamic graphs

In today's fast-paced and interconnected digital world, the data generated by an increasing number of applications is being modeled as dynamic graphs. The graph structure encodes relationships among data items, while the structural changes to the graphs as well as the continuous stream of information produced by the entities in these graphs make them dynamic in nature. Examples include social networks where users post status updates, images, videos, etc.; phone call networks where nodes may send text messages or place phone calls; road traffic networks where the traffic behavior of the road segments changes constantly, and so on. There is a tremendous value in storing, managing, and analyzing such dynamic graphs and deriving meaningful insights in real-time. However, a majority of the work in graph analytics assumes a static setting, and there is a lack of systematic study of the various dynamic scenarios, the complexity they impose on the analysis tasks, and the challenges in building efficient systems that can support such tasks at a large scale. In this dissertation, I design a unified streaming graph data management framework, and develop prototype systems to support increasingly complex tasks on dynamic graphs. In the first part, I focus on the management and querying of distributed graph data. I develop a hybrid replication policy that monitors the read-write frequencies of the nodes to decide dynamically what data to replicate, and whether to do eager or lazy replication in order to minimize network communication and support low-latency querying. In the second part, I study parallel execution of continuous neighborhood-driven aggregates, where each node aggregates the information generated in its neighborhoods. I build my system around the notion of an aggregation overlay graph, a pre-compiled data structure that enables sharing of partial aggregates across different queries, and also allows partial pre-computation of the aggregates to minimize the query latencies and increase throughput. Finally, I extend the framework to support continuous detection and analysis of activity-based subgraphs, where subgraphs could be specified using both graph structure as well as activity conditions on the nodes. The query specification tasks in my system are expressed using a set of active structural primitives, which allows the query evaluator to use a set of novel optimization techniques, thereby achieving high throughput. Overall, in this dissertation, I define and investigate a set of novel tasks on dynamic graphs, design scalable optimization techniques, build prototype systems, and show the effectiveness of the proposed techniques through extensive evaluation using large-scale real and synthetic datasets.

Dynamic fator Models for bivariate Count Data: an application to fire activity

The study of forest re activity, in its several aspects, is essencial to understand the phenomenon and to prevent environmental public catastrophes. In this context the analysis of monthly number of res along several years is one aspect to have into account in order to better comprehend this tematic. The goal of this work is to analyze the monthly number of forest res in the neighboring districts of Aveiro and Coimbra, Portugal, through dynamic factor models for bivariate count series. We use a bayesian approach, through MCMC methods, to estimate the model parameters as well as to estimate the common latent factor to both series.

Paracrine effects of oocyte secreted factors and stem cell factor on porcine granulosa and theca cells in vitro

Oocyte control of granulosa and theca cell function may be mediated by several growth factors via a local feedback loop(s) between these cell types. This study examined both the role of oocyte-secreted factors on granulosa and thecal cells, cultured independently and in co-culture, and the effect of stem cell factor (SCF); a granulosa cell derived peptide that appears to have multiple roles in follicle development. Granulosa and theca cells were isolated from 2-6 mm healthy follicles of mature porcine ovaries and cultured under serum-free conditions, supplemented with: 100 ng/ml LR3 IGF-1, 10 ng/ml insulin, 100 ng/ml testosterone, 0-10 ng/ml SCF, 1 ng/ml FSH (granulosa), 0.01 ng/ml LH (theca) or 1 ng/ml FSH and 0.01 ng/ml LH (co-culture) and with/without oocyte conditioned medium (OCM) or 5 oocytes. Cells were cultured in 96 well plates for 144 h, after which viable cell numbers were determined. Medium was replaced every 48 h and spent medium analysed for steroids.Oocyte secreted factors were shown to stimulate both granulosa cell proliferation (P < 0.001) and oestradiol production (P < 0.001) by granulosa cells throughout culture. In contrast, oocyte secreted factors suppressed granulosa cell progesterone production after both 48 and 144 hours (P < 0.001). Thecal cell numbers were increased by oocyte secreted factors (P = 0.02), together with a suppression in progesterone and androstenedione synthesis after 48 hours (P < 0.001) and after 144 hours (P = 0.02), respectively. Oocyte secreted factors also increased viable cell numbers (P < 0.001) in co-cultures together with suppression of progesterone (P < 0.001) and oestradiol (P < 0.001). In granulosa cell only cultures, SCF increased progesterone production in a dose dependent manner (P < 0.001), whereas progesterone synthesis by theca cells was reduced in a dose dependent manner (P = 0.002). Co-cultured cells demonstrated an increase in progesterone production with increasing SCF dose (P < 0.001) and an increase in oestradiol synthesis at the highest dose of SCF (100 ng/ml). In summary, these findings demonstrate the presence of a co-ordinated paracrine interaction between somatic cells and germ cells, whereby oocyte derived signals interact locally to mediate granulosa and theca cell function. SCF has a role in modulating this local interaction. In conclusion, the oocyte is an effective modulator of granulosa-theca interactions, one role being the inhibition of luteinization

Automated Software Debugging Using Hybrid Static/Dynamic Analysis

With the increasing complexity of today's software, the software development process is becoming highly time and resource consuming. The increasing number of software configurations, input parameters, usage scenarios, supporting platforms, external dependencies, and versions plays an important role in expanding the costs of maintaining and repairing unforeseeable software faults. To repair software faults, developers spend considerable time in identifying the scenarios leading to those faults and root-causing the problems. While software debugging remains largely manual, it is not the case with software testing and verification. The goal of this research is to improve the software development process in general, and software debugging process in particular, by devising techniques and methods for automated software debugging, which leverage the advances in automatic test case generation and replay. In this research, novel algorithms are devised to discover faulty execution paths in programs by utilizing already existing software test cases, which can be either automatically or manually generated. The execution traces, or alternatively, the sequence covers of the failing test cases are extracted. Afterwards, commonalities between these test case sequence covers are extracted, processed, analyzed, and then presented to the developers in the form of subsequences that may be causing the fault. The hypothesis is that code sequences that are shared between a number of faulty test cases for the same reason resemble the faulty execution path, and hence, the search space for the faulty execution path can be narrowed down by using a large number of test cases. To achieve this goal, an efficient algorithm is implemented for finding common subsequences among a set of code sequence covers. Optimization techniques are devised to generate shorter and more logical sequence covers, and to select subsequences with high likelihood of containing the root cause among the set of all possible common subsequences. A hybrid static/dynamic analysis approach is designed to trace back the common subsequences from the end to the root cause. A debugging tool is created to enable developers to use the approach, and integrate it with an existing Integrated Development Environment. The tool is also integrated with the environment's program editors so that developers can benefit from both the tool suggestions, and their source code counterparts. Finally, a comparison between the developed approach and the state-of-the-art techniques shows that developers need only to inspect a small number of lines in order to find the root cause of the fault. Furthermore, experimental evaluation shows that the algorithm optimizations lead to better results in terms of both the algorithm running time and the output subsequence length.

Innovation from below: dynamic capabilities of the territory as a source for new social ventures

Social innovation is a critical factor for the conception of new strategies to deal with increasingly complex social problems. Many of these initiatives are pursued at the local level and are based on the dynamic capabilities of a given territory. Through the analysis of the Cooperative Terra Chã, we assess whether dynamic capabilities of a territory can generate opportunities for social innovation and how they can be exploited by local communities. We observe that by using a integrated strategy for the management of the capabilities of a territory, new social ventures are able to cope with severe social issues that are not being adequately addressed by other stakeholders.

Quantification of the effects of architectural traits on dry mass production and light interception of tomato canopy under different temperature regimes using a dynamic functional-structural plant model

There is increasing interest in evaluating the environmental effects on crop architectural traits and yield improvement. However, crop models describing the dynamic changes in canopy structure with environmental conditions and the complex interactions between canopy structure, light interception, and dry mass production are only gradually emerging. Using tomato (Solanum lycopersicum L.) as a model crop, a dynamic functional-structural plant model (FSPM) was constructed, parameterized, and evaluated to analyse the effects of temperature on architectural traits, which strongly influence canopy light interception and shoot dry mass. The FSPM predicted the organ growth, organ size, and shoot dry mass over time with high accuracy (>85%). Analyses of this FSPM showed that, in comparison with the reference canopy, shoot dry mass may be affected by leaf angle by as much as 20%, leaf curvature by up to 7%, the leaf length: width ratio by up to 5%, internode length by up to 9%, and curvature ratios and leaf arrangement by up to 6%. Tomato canopies at low temperature had higher canopy density and were more clumped due to higher leaf area and shorter internodes. Interestingly, dry mass production and light interception of the clumped canopy were more sensitive to changes in architectural traits. The complex interactions between architectural traits, canopy light interception, dry mass production, and environmental conditions can be studied by the dynamic FSPM, which may serve as a tool for designing a canopy structure which is 'ideal' in a given environment.

Analysis of personality traits as a risk factor in crash related trauma.

Background: Due to increasing stress, individual personality traits are becoming a significant contributor to CRT (Crash Related Trauma). In the present study, we hypothesized that there will be no difference in personality characteristics of CRT patients and control subjects and there will be no association between trauma and personality characteristics of CRT patients. Method: A total of 119 cases and 112 controls of age >18 years were selected as per criteria decided. After obtaining ethical clearance, patients presenting to the emergency orthopedic unit were included in the study. After primary management all enrolled subjects were assessed by ICD 10 module screening questionnaire and analyzed for nine personality traits, subject to written informed consent. Results: Of all the cases enrolled 82.35% were males. Impulsive personality trait is found in 84.78% (39/46) cases. There were 46 motorcyclists out of 119 cases enrolled. Most of the personality traits showed a statistical significant association (p < 0.0003) with CRT. Conclusion: Majority of CRT victims attending orthopedic emergency unit at trauma center had impulsive and histrionic personality characteristics which accounted for 84.78% and 82.61% cases respectively. These traits showed a statistical significant association with CRT.

Influência da vermiculita expandida na resistência à compressão e reologia de pastas cimentantes de poços de petróleo

Several problems related to the loss of hydraulic seal in oilwells, causing gas migration and/or contamination of the production zone by water, have been reported. The loss of the hydraulic seal is a consequence of cracks which can be occasioned either by the invasion of gas during the wait on cement or by the expansion of the casing causing the fracture of the cement sheath. In case of the pressure of the formation is higher than the pressure in the annulus, gas can migrate into the slurry and form microannulus, which are channels where gas migrates after the cement is set. Cracks can be also occasioned by the fracture of the cement sheath when it does not withstand the thermal and dynamic loads. In reservoirs where the oil is heavy, steam water injection operation is required in order to get the oil flowing. This operation increases the temperature of the casing, and then it expands and causes the fracture of the cement sheath in the annulus. When the failures on the cement are detected, remedial cementing is required, which raise costs caused by the interventions. Once the use of cement in the construction civil sector is older than its use in the petroleum sector, it is common to bring technologies and solutions from the civil construction and apply them on the petroleum area. In this context, vermiculite, a mineral-clay widely encountered in Brazil, has been used, on its exfoliated form, in the civil construction, especially on the manufacture of lights and fireproof concretes with excellent thermal and acoustical properties. It has already been reported in scientific journals, studies of the addition of exfoliated vermiculite in Portland cements revealing good properties related to oilwell cementing operations. Thus, this study aimed to study the rheological behavior, thickening time, stability and compressive strength of the slurries made of Portland cement and exfoliated vermiculite in 5 different compositions, at room temperature and heated. The results showed that the compressive strength decreased with the addition of exfoliated vermiculite, however the values are still allowed for oiwell cementing operations. The thickening time of the slurry with no exfoliated vermiculite was 120 min and the thickening time of the slurry with 12 % of exfoliated vermiculite was 98 min. The stability and the rheological behavior of the slurries revealed that the exfoliated vermiculite absorbed water and therefore increased the viscosity of the slurries, even though increasing the factor cement-water. The stability experiment carried out at 133 ºF showed that, there was neither sedimentation nor reduction of the volume of the cement for the slurry with 12 % of exfoliated vermiculite. Thus, the addition of exfoliated vermiculite accelerates the set time of the cement and gives it a small shrinkage during the wait on cement, which are important to prevent gas migration

Dynamic mental representations of habitual behaviours: Food choice on a web-based environment

Aim: Rather than being rigid, habitual behaviours may be determined by dynamic mental representations that can adapt to context changes. This adaptive potential may result from particular conditions dependent on the interaction between two sources of mental constructs activation: perceived context applicability and cognitive accessibility . Method: T wo web-shopping simulations of fering the choice between habitually chosen and non-habitually chosen food products were presented to participants. This considered two choice contexts dif fering in the habitual behaviour perceived applicability (low vs. high) and a measure of habitual behaviour chronicity . Results: Study 1 demonstrated a perceived applicability ef fect, with more habitual (non-organic) than non-habitual (organic) food products chosen in a high perceived applicability (familiar) than in a low perceived applicability (new) context. The adaptive potential of habitual behaviour was evident in the habitual products choice consistency across three successive choices, despite the decrease in perceived applicability . Study 2 evidenced the adaptive potential in strong habitual behaviour participants – high chronic accessibility – who chose a habitual product (milk) more than a non-habitual product (orange juice), even when perceived applicability was reduced (new context). Conclusion: Results portray consumers as adaptive decision makers that can flexibly cope with changes in their (inner and outer) choice contexts.