A bayesian spatial individual effects probit model of the 2010 UK general election

The Conservative Party emerged from the 2010 United Kingdom General Election as the largest single party, but their support was not geographically uniform. In this paper, we estimate a hierarchical Bayesian spatial probit model that tests for the presence of regional voting effects. This model allows for the estimation of individual region-specic effects on the probability of Conservative Party success, incorporating information on the spatial relationships between the regions of the mainland United Kingdom. After controlling for a range of important covariates, we find that these spatial relationships are significant and that our individual region-specic effects estimates provide additional evidence of North-South variations in Conservative Party support.

Sarcopromusca pruna (Diptera: Muscidae) as an egg transport host of Dermatobia hominis (Diptera: Cuterebridae) in the cacau region of Bahia, Brazil

Sarcopromusca pruna appears to be the predominant transport host for Dermatobia hominis eggs among cattle herds in central eastern Bahia, Brazil. In the study area, two seasonal peaks of S. Pruna abundance coincide with those of Dermatobia, from mid July through late September and from mid November until early January, two periods of moderate monthly rainfall between anual extremes. Among more than 26,000 flies examined during the study, 75 (all female S. pruna) bore Dermatobia eggs. Certain aspects of Dermatobia behavior and ovoposition habits in the field are also discussed.

Technical progress and product reliability under competition and monopoly

Technical progress lowers costs and prices but appears to have an ambiguous effect on product reliabilty. This paper presents a simple model which explains this observation.

Stability of Growth Models with Generalised Lag Structures

This paper considers the lag structures of dynamic models in economics, arguing that the standard approach is too simple to capture the complexity of actual lag structures arising, for example, from production and investment decisions. It is argued that recent (1990s) developments in the the theory of functional differential equations provide a means to analyse models with generalised lag structures. The stability and asymptotic stability of two growth models with generalised lag structures are analysed. The paper concludes with some speculative discussion of time-varying parameters.

Personal Indebtedness, Spatial Effects and Crime

There is a long and detailed history of attempts to understand what causes crime. One of the most prominent strands of this literature has sought to better understand the relationship between economic conditions and crime. Following Becker (1968), the economic argument is that in an attempt to maintain consumption in the face of unemployment, people may resort to sources of illicit income. In a similar manner, we might expect ex–ante, that increases in the level of personal indebtedness would be likely to provide similar incentives to engage in criminality. In this paper we seek to understand the spatial pattern of property and theft crimes using a range of socioeconomic variables, including data on the level of personal indebtedness.

Personal Indebtedness, Spatial Effects and Crime

There is a long and detailed history of attempts to understand what causes crime. One of the most prominent strands of this literature has sought to better understand the relationship between economic conditions and crime. Following Becker (1968), the economic argument is that in an attempt to maintain consumption in the face of unemployment, people may resort to sources of illicit income. In a similar manner, we might expect ex–ante, that increases in the level of personal indebtedness would be likely to provide similar incentives to engage in criminality. In this paper we seek to understand the spatial pattern of property and theft crimes using a range of socioeconomic variables, including data on the level of personal indebtedness.

Rational Expectations Dynamics: A Methodological Critique

This paper analyses RE macromodels from the methodological perspective. It proposes a particular property, robustness, which should be considered a necessary feature of scienti cally valid models in economics, but which is absent from many RE macromodels. To restore this property many macroeconomists resort to detailed and implausible assumptions, which take their models a long way from simple Rational Expectations. The paper draws attention to the problems inherent in the technique of local linearisation and concludes by proposing the use of nonlinear models, analysed globally.

A two-sector growth model with institutional saving and investment

This paper develops a two-sector growth model in which institutional investors play a significant role. A necessary and sufficient condition is established under which these investors own the entire capital stock in the long run. The dependence of the long-run growth rate on the behaviour of such investors, and the effects of a productivity increase are analysed.

A test of long memory hypothesis based on self-similarity

This paper develops a new test of true versus spurious long memory, based on log-periodogram estimation of the long memory parameter using skip-sampled data. A correction factor is derived to overcome the bias in this estimator due to aliasing. The procedure is designed to be used in the context of a conventional test of significance of the long memory parameter, and composite test procedure described that has the properties of known asymptotic size and consistency. The test is implemented using the bootstrap, with the distribution under the null hypothesis being approximated using a dependent-sample bootstrap technique to approximate short-run dependence following fractional differencing. The properties of the test are investigated in a set of Monte Carlo experiments. The procedure is illustrated by applications to exchange rate volatility and dividend growth series.

Exploration of receptor binding of Bacillus thuringiensis toxins

Wild type and mutant toxins of Bacillus thuringiensis delta-endotoxins were examined for their binding to midgut brush border membrane vesicles (BBMV). CryIAa, CryIAb, and CryIAc were examined for their binding to Gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar) BBMV. The binding of CryIAa and CryIAc was directly correlated with their toxicity, while CryIAb was observed to have lower binding than expected from its toxicity. The latter observation confirms the observation of Wolfersberger (1990). The "rule" of reciprocity of binding and toxicity is apparently obeyed by CryIAa and CryIAc, but broken by CryIAb on L. dispar. Alanine substitutions were made in several positions of the putative loops of CryIAa to test the hypothesis that the loops are intimately involved in binding to the receptor. The mutant toxins showed minor shifts in heterologous binding to Bombyx mori BBMV, but not enough to conclude that the residues chosen play critical roles in receptor binding.

Biochemistry and mode of action of the Bacillus sphaericus toxins

Bacillus sphaericus produces at least two toxins which are highly toxic to mosquito larvae. The binary toxin, which is comprised of proteins of 51.4 and 41.9 kDa, is present in all highly insecticidal strains. The 100 kDa SSII-1 toxin is present in most highly insecticidal as well as the weakly insecticidal strains. The current status of studies on biochemistry and mode of action of these toxins is reviewed.

Characterization and biological activity of a brazilian isolate of Bacillus sphaericus (Neide) highly toxic to mosquito larvae

Primary powders of Bacillus sphaericus strain S2 isolated from soil samples in Brazil, and strain 2362 were produced in a 14 liter fermentor. Growth patterns and sporulation observed in three trials with strains S2 and 2362 in the fermentor were similar. Second-instar larvae of Culex quinquefasciatus, Anopheles albimanus, Anopheles quadrimaculatus, and Aedes aegypti exposed for 48 hr to strain S2 responded with LC50 values of 0.25, 5.95, 12.28 and 140.0 ppb of lyophilized primary powder, respectively. Under the same conditions, strain 2362 resulted in LC50 values of 0.39, 7.16, 16.93 and 307.0 ppb of lyophilized primary powder, respectively, in those mosquito larvae. Statistical analysis of the bioassay data did not show significant differences among LC50 values observed in B. sphaericus strains S2 and 2362, at the 0.05 level. Toxins of strains S2 and 2362 were extracted at pH 12 with NaOH. Electrophoresis of the extracts in polyacrylamide gel under denaturing conditions revealed the 51 and 42 kDa toxins in both S2 and 2362 B. sphaericus strains. The presence of the 42 kDa peptide in the extracts was confirmed by Western blot and Elisa, with anti-42 kDa IgG previously prepared from strain 2362.

Leucocytozoon toddi and Haemoproteus tinnunculi (Protozoa: Haemosporina) in the Chimango caracara (Milvago chimango) in southern Chile

Two species of blood protozoans were identified from blood smears collected from 15 specimens of the Chimango caracara (Milvago chimango) on Isla Grande de Chiloé in southern Chile. These included Leucocytozoon toddi in 13 birds, including all 5 of the 4-6 week old nestlings examined, and 8 of the subadults or adults. One of the nestlings also had a dual infection of L. toddi and Haemoproteus tinnunculi. These are the first reports of blood parasites from M. chimango.